WEEKLY TECHNICAL REVIEW 30 th Sept 2014

Transcription

1 WEEKLY TECHNICAL REVIEW 30 th Sept 2014 EQUITY MARKETS BOND - FOREX - COMMODITIES S&P 500 EUROSTOXX 50 DAX 30 CAC 40 IBEX 35 Consolidation in progress Consolidation in progress Consolidation in progress Consolidation in progress Consolidation in progress T-NOTES BUND EUR/USD CCI INDEX BRENT GOLD Neutral Toppish Bearish Stance Bearish Stance Bearish Stance Bearish Stance STOCKS CHART OF THE WEEK MICHELIN CHRISTIAN DIOR SUEZ ENVIRONT Breakdown Breakdown Reversal in progress TOPIX Breakout Lionel Duverger, CFTe Oscar Germade, CFTe Maxime Viémont, CFTe

2 S&P Resistances : 2010 / 2040 / 2065 Supports : 1950 / 1900 / 1863 We keep our long term bullish bias as the index is still trading in a bullish channel. In the short term, a consolidation phase is in progress. We stands ready to buy any dip closer to the 1950 long term support area. Above 2010, the next resistance area is around 2040.

3 EUROSTOXX 50 3 Resistances: / 3325 / 3400 Supports: 3190 / 3140 / 3100 / 3000 In early August the ES50 has reached the 2980 long term support (38% log June 2013-June previous bottoms in early 2014). In the short term, below 3300, the index is still in a consolidation phase. Our target for the coming weeks is Above 3300, the next resistance area is around 3325.

4 DAX 30 4 Resistances: 9800 / Supports: 9400 / 9325 / 8900 In early August the DAX has reached the 8900 long term support. In the short term, a correction is in progress. We favor a short term consolidation phase towards 9325 in the coming weeks. Above 9800, the next resistance is at

5 CAC 40 5 Resistances : 4500 / 4600 Supports: 4340 / 4300 / 4250 / 4100 In early August the CAC has reached the 4100 long term support. In the short term, the CAC is continuing a consolidation phase has been confirmed as the short term resistance. Our target is 4300 for the coming weeks. Above 4500, the next resistance area is around 4600.

6 IBEX 35 6 Resistances: / / Supports: 10679/ / 9950 Last week, Ibex has rebounded on our key which is 38% Fibo of the previous bullish leg ( ). We still believe that a consolidation is in progress. Our target zone is 10700/ The breakout of 11249, on weekly close, would resume the long-term trend.

7 T-NOTE USA 10 YR 7 Resistances: 125,766 / 127,031 Supports: 123,50 / 122,219 Last year, T-note has completed a distribution phase as we suggested. So, a H&S was confirmed. Such patterns are reversal patterns. So we expect more downside pressure in the coming months. Medium-term 120 without ruling out 116. In the short-term, T-note has resumed its downtrend. Below 127,031, we remain in a bearish stance. The breakout of , on monthly close, will jeopardize this negative view.

8 BUND 8 Resistances: 149,72 / 151,83 / 152,65 Supports: 147,63 / 145,95 / 144,2 Last week, Bund has started a correction phase, as we suggested in the previous reports. In the short-term, above 148,78, we expect a rebound towards 150,5/149,72 to fill in the expiration gap. We still expect sideways moves in the coming months into a large degree distribution phase. The breakout of 151,83 could trigger a price extension towards 152,65.

9 EUR/USD 9 Resistances: 1,2901 / 1,3160 Supports: 1,2661 / 1,25 Below 1,3993, we expect more downside pressure in the coming months. Our medium-term target is 1,204. Last week, Eur has reached our medium 1,275. As we haven t any reversal yet (above 1,29), the next support is 1,25. The breakout of 1,3993 will jeopardize this medium-term negative view.

10 CONTINUOUS COMMODITY INDEX 10 Resistances: 25,44 / 26,24 Supports: 24,68 / 23,83 Our short-term view was wrong. CCI is coming back to 2013 bottoms. Now, we expect more weakness in the next months. The next support is located around 23,83. The breakout of its 200-day MA, on monthly close, would jeopardize this negative view.

11 BRENT 11 Resistances: 98,5 / 103,3 Supports: 95,6 / 88,49 Even if the medium-term remains in sideways, our short-term view was wrong. Now, we expect more weakness in the coming months. The next support is located around 88,5. The breakout of its 200-day MA, on monthly close, would jeopardize this medium-term negative view.

12 GOLD 12 Resistances: 1235 / 1290 Supports: 1207 / 1180 Last year, as we suggested, Gold has broken down its bullish long term trend. So, we remain in a bearish stance for this year. Long term 1033 / 681 (2008 top & bottom). Last week, Gold has resumed its downtrend. Below 1290 Gold remains in a bearish stance on all time-frames. The breakout of 1434 would jeopardize our medium term negative view.

13 MICHELIN ML FP 13 Resistances: 85 / 92 Supports: 72 / 70 / 65 / 60 Last week, this stock has broken down an absolute trend (top chart) and a relative bullish trend (bottom chart) which were active since late We believe that more downside pressure and at least underperformance versus the market are likely. Our first target is located around Below this support zone, the next target is 60. Only a pullback above 85 (200-day MA) will jeopardize this negative view.

14 CHRISTIAN DIOR CDI FP 14 Resistances: 143 / 153,5 Supports: 129 / 120 This stock has broken down a key bullish trend in late July and made a short-lived pullback towards its 200- day MA. We believe that the downtrend should resume towards the bottom of the previous waves 4 located around 120. Only a pullback above 143 will jeopardize this negative view.

15 SUEZ ENVIRONNEMENT SEV FP 15 Resistances: 13,7 / 14,5 Supports: 11,7 / 10,6 Last week, this stock has triggered a death cross on the absolute view and a breakdown on relative view. Such news should lead to more downside pressure or at least more underperfromance in the coming months. The next supports are 11,5/11,7 and 10,6. Only a pullback above 14,5 will jeopardize our negative view.

16 TOPIX TPX INDEX 16 Resistances: 1460 / 1625 Supports: 1300 / 1125 Recently, this index has broken out a key 1300 after 16 months of sideways move. This price movement has resumed the long-term trend (wave V) for the coming weeks. Our next target zone is 1460 and 1600/1800 (previous tops between 1993 and 2007). Only a throwback below the previous resistance will jeopardize our positive view.

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