Weekly outlook for June 5 June

Transcription

1 Weekly outlook for June 5 June TREND DIRECTION S&P 500 Oil Gold Short Term Intermediate-Term Long Term Weak buy buy neutral neutral sell buy buy buy Summary The S&P500 index is expected to hold above 2400 level this week and to make new highs. Oil is expected to have a breakdown move if US dollar has a strong bounce. GOLD is expected to make a high move first before it has a minor pullback after it approaches the April high area. Page 1 of 8

2 1. SP500 index (ESmini, and SPY): Based on Feb the Long-term momentum trend continues its strong BUY signal and bullish direction. The overbought condition also continues. Based on Feb, 2016 the intermediate-term trend momentum also has a strong BUY signal. The index may still rally for a while in this overbought market. The weekly PMO indicator turned up and gave out a BUY signal, and slow STO indicator also turns up in the overbought territory. Both could support index to make new highs in the coming weeks. However an intermediate-term correction should be expected due to the overbought market. We are predicting an intermediate-term correction in later July and/or August, and a long-term correction next year. Until the long and intermediate term PMO indicator reaches an extremely overbought condition, any short-term correction (pullback) will likely be bought. The long and intermediate term major target is still around the zone. Page 2 of 8

3 ES/SPX Short-term Based on Dec the short-term momentum trend indicator has a strong buy signal. The daily PMO BUY signal supports the rally and the likelihood of new highs. The breakout zone will be a key for this week. The index needs to stay above it to make new highs around the target zone this week will be this week's major support zone. Buy on dip should be the focus for trading. Weekly Option Strike price Expiration Date Strike price Expiration Date /6/ /6/9 Meanline /6/ /6/9 Page 3 of 8

4 2. Oil ($WTIC, CL) Based on Dec Long-term momentum trend remains bearish and strong SELL signal. The monthly overbought condition may keep oil price in a broad long-term ($55-$35) consolidation range. The Nov intermediate-term trend momentum indicator remains NEUTRAL signal. both weekly PMO and slow STO indicators have their SELL signal. Last week oil broke below the $47 level during intraday trading. Even though the closing price is above $47, the intraday breakdown move suggests the support line of the triangle pattern may not hold. Page 4 of 8

5 Oil -Short term Based on April 19, 2017 the short-term momentum trend is bearish and the SELL signal remains. The daily PMO indicator may give out SELL signal if last week's low $46.75 is broken. The slow STO indicator moved into oversold territory, but not extremely oversold. Both suggest oil price may go lower. Now the $49.50 line is a key for this week. As long as oil price stays under it, a break below $46.50 should be expected. Page 5 of 8

6 3. GOLD (GC, GLD) Based on Oct Long-term momentum trend indicator stays Neutral area. Monthly PMO indicator turned back and strengthened the BUY signal. The Slow STO also moved up and supports the rally. Based on Dec the intermediate-term momentum trend BUY signal got stronger last week. GOLD price moved under the defining line from 2011 year's high with both weekly PMO and Slow STO buy signals, we should expect that GOLD may breakout from the triangle formation soon. Page 6 of 8

7 Gold - Short term The May short-term trend momentum trend buy signal is intact. Daily PMO indicator kept supporting the rally and Slow STO indicator became more overbought. Now $ is a key zone for this week. The upside target could be around $1300 area. If we get there, we may see a minor pullback from the S$1300-$1315 zone. Page 7 of 8

8 4. WEEKLY ECONOMIC REPORTS Note also the election in Great Britain on Thursday will have an impact on the Brexit news. Page 8 of 8