Inter-market Technical Analysis for April 29, Summary Chart TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

Transcription

1 1 Weekly Inter-market Technical Report Summary Chart TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

2 2 Intraday Intermarket Volatility and even trend is back in our markets! The main movement recently came from Treasuries collapsing toward new lows as expected while the US Dollar index traded sharply higher off its support target. Gold fell toward its target - then traded slightly under it - before reversing (so far) Friday. Crude Oil, after trading higher, is now consolidating into a tight triangle TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

3 3 10-Year Treasury Notes ($UST Price) Weekly Last month, Bonds SUCCESSFULLY achieved our upside bounce target just above the 121 into the falling 20 week EMA level after rallying from the 119 level. However, we've had SELL SWING plan in motion to trade the DEPARTURE back toward the prior low at 119 which was correct as the target was achieved last week. Logic suggests a BOUNCE off the 119 support TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

4 4 Daily As seen on the WEEKLY chart, bonds are in a short-term DOWNTREND into a key weekly chart SUPPORT pivot at 119 which is our successfully achieved downside target. Last week was a strong sell-swing week that took price much quicker than expected beneath our 119 target. We did get our official 3% level in 10 Year Notes as expected though yields - and price - turned back late last week from this level on an aggressive BUY position. Look for price to rally at least toward 120 or even the 121 level (weekly chart) for another countertrend swing (retracement) TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

5 5 US S&P 500 ($SPX) Monthly February gave us a wide monthly candle of high volatility and March was another big sellmonthly candle locked in place for two bearish months. Note the lower frame levels and monitor the immediate departure from the critical levels such as 2,600 and 2,700 where price trades currently. Price now trades into our longer-term range between the weekly EMAs at roughly 2,600 and 2,700 - a critical yet wide level for the future TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

6 6 Weekly Clearly price gave us our "violent snap-back" that collapsed us from 2,900 toward 2,600 where and then back up again to form a wide trading range. After that, we've seen a few weeks of sideways consolidation between the 20 and 50 EMAs contract the high volatility events. Last week gave us another relative low volatility consolidation and bounce back toward the highs as the week ended at the lows AND exactly at the 20 week EMA level. There's no directional edge when price is balanced here - and it is VERY balanced - as it is so be careful and monitor your lower timeframe charts and active positions carefully without bias TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

7 7 Daily: Keeping the "don't predict," logic, we have price back into a longer-term sideways pivot line near 2,670 overlapping the 20 day EMA also at 2,670. It's clear that 2,670 is our new shortterm price pivot and will frame our trades on the departure from this level - see hourly chart. It's logical to see a pullback after the stellar rally up away from 2,600 toward 2,700 with only a single pause day. Again, be cautious with price into a key support level - when price is balanced at a pivot, magnet, or gravity level, there's little edge in predicting the way price is going to go. Be cautious/patient and then join the winning side on the swing away from here TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

8 8 Gold Weekly We got an initial bearish play down away from $1,360 as price continued to consolidation within our $1,310 and $1,360 wide weekly range (rectangle). Last week gold took us back to our midpoint after trading down from our resistance, locking in the short-term trading range between $1,330 and resistance at $1,360 as a small wedge or triangle (daily chart) develops TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

9 9 Daily With Gold again BACK near the midpoint of $1,330/$1,340 (actually just beneath it), be cautious here yet again as was the case last week. We'll logically expect another BOUNCE up away from this level as the range continues but will be aware of the alternate thesis range breakout play beneath $1,310 and $1,300. Gold continues to trade between our $1,310 and $1,360 so be safe here with a bullish-untilproven-otherwise bias TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

10 10 WTI Crude Oil ($WTIC) Weekly Like Stocks, Oil remains in a longer-term uptrend but UNLIKE stocks, Oil trades back at the 2018 swing highs just shy of the $70.00 pivot level. We're still seeing Oil OVERBOUGHT and OVER-EXTENDED from its weekly averages, making us "take profits" or even slightly aggressively bearish on last week's reversal candle just shy of $ TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

11 11 Daily At this point, Oil has become our strongest market we follow in the report as it's not only back at its prior high but just exceeded it above $70.00 right now. Like the other swing highs away from the rising 20 day EMA, we'll be cautious and on guard for a PULLBACK down away from the $70.00 target but will play an alternate thesis (no pullback) breakout beyond $ TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

12 12 US Dollar Index ($USD) Weekly Be very careful here - we DID get our bounce UP AWAY FROM the level toward the falling 20 week EMA into and then last week burst price higher toward our confluence longer-term target into $ Simply stated, take profits and use this as your departure point (logical bear; alternate bull) TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

13 13 Daily We continued our DEPARTURE play mentioned in last week's report on the move "Up away from" the $89.00 support level especially on the break beyond Here's a quote from last week with the outcome above: Simply planned, keep trading within this narrowing range UNTIL we do get a breakout beyond the trendlines and set targets accordingly (prior swing highs and lows outside the range). And now? Take profits and play the departure from (or stay neutral into the target) TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

14 14 Disclaimer: Neither TheoTrade or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or FINRA SIPC NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment product, transaction or investment. Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.