1 P a g e. Executive Summary

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1 Executive Summary My call two weeks ago to revoke the major-3 top for the S&P500 based on OEW downtrend confirmations on several indices including the S&P500. was the correct thing today as I was then able to correctly forecast all highs and lows within +/- 5p on the S&P500 using standard Fibonacci-based impulse-wave techniques. Question now is if major-3 topped exactly at the 1.618x extension of major-1, measured from major-2: SPX2478 (alternate count), or if we get one more wave up (preferred count). The daily charts suggest the latter. In that case, it remains unclear if minute-iv bottomed at SPX2465 on Friday, after a 1-day correction, or if it is morphing into a (irregular) flat-correction: (?). Given that minute-ii took 3-days and price hasn t even reached the minimum level for minute-iv (23.6% retrace at SPX2461); this could be the most probably possibility. A break above SPX2483 will mean minute-v is underway to SPX , while a top at SPX2476 and then drop below SPX2472 means minute-iv will become the flat (b-waves can t extend beyond 1.382x a; and we ll then have price overlap; respectively). At the current stage, a break below SPX2408 is needed to confirm major-3 and -4. A minute-iv low and minute-v rally will, however, allow me to raise this target considerably (to the minute-iv zone) Minute-v should ultimately and ideally target SPX , which is right within my long-standing SPX target zone for all of major-3 of Primary-V. Once we ve topped and the first leg down for major-4 is underway I can then start to better determine a reasonable bottom target. But, as for all 4 th waves: expect it to retrace between % of the prior 3 rd wave of the same degree corresponding to a p pullback. For now, however, all charts are bullish, all indicators are on a buy, all SMAs are pointing up, price is above all (5d to 200d SMAs) all TIs are pointing up, breadth is positive, etc. Thus, the charts tell us to continue to look up, which is perfectly in line with my preferred wave-count. Please note there s no need to front run anything yet as 4 th waves are difficult to track and trade: they can do anything they want. Also remember this is a bull market and the minute- and micro-waves can extend: while all wave degrees point to SPX the market can go beyond it. No guarantees, only probabilities of possibilities. Hence, already starting to aggressively short in anticipation of the upcoming 4th wave is not advisable, and shorting a 4 th wave should only be done by the pros, e.g. our investment firm NorthPost Partners, and not by faint of heart. 1 P a g e

2 Trading Performance Update with North Post Partners, LLC NPP provides neither a boom, nor a bust. Just consistency. We passed our yearly goal of +20% this week and we ve still got 5 ½ months to go!! Several of my members have joined the winning team and we are so proud to be able to provide them the profits they are looking for. As NPP continues to grow we hope you will decide to join us too. Please contact me or Rus Chao directly (rustinchao@gmail.com) for more information. Joining NPP is absolutely free, and we charge no service or maintenance fees. Please follow NPP on (all intra-day trades are provided there in real time) Please bookmark NPP s website: (weekly digest/trading plans are posted there) *It should not be assumed that future performance will always be guaranteed and/or profitable. Nor will future performance necessarily equal past performance or past performance trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of NPP. Joining NPP is free, but does not exclude commission costs, and other possible charges. 2 P a g e

3 Elliot wave updates In Thursday s update, I showed the two prevailing counts: minute-iv of minor-5 underway to be followed by minute-v to SPX (preferred; Fig. 1A) for all of major-3, or all of Major-3 topped at SPX2478 (alternate; Fig. 1B). In the former case, minute-iv could have already ended at SPX2465 on Friday, but it would be rather shallow as the minimum expected retrace is at SPX2461. In addition, minute-ii lasted three days and so far, minute-iv has only been one day. Thus, also from a timing-symmetry perspective it appears minute-iv needs to do some more work. The insert shows the two short-term possibilities: micro-b is now underway to SPX2476 as an (abc) correction, or minute-iv is done. Given this is a Bull (5 up, 3 down) and there were clearly 5-waves up off Friday s low (purple 1, 2, etc and red i,ii, etc) and 3-waves down, the benefit of the doubt goes to the Bulls until proven otherwise: over SPX2483 and minutev is confirmed. But, a rally to SPX2476 and then a drop >SPX2472 and minute-iv is still underway becoming a flat. Figure 1A. SPX hourly chart. Minute-iv of minor-5 underway. Figure 1B. SPX 1-minute chart: Major 3 topped. A Insert: minute-iv at SPX2465 or morphing into a flat (orange abc)? B 3 P a g e

4 I wanted to show the ideal wave-tracker tables, starting with the current minute-waves of he preferred minor-5 wave up. As you can see from Table 1, all Fib targets of an extended wave were hit. I therefore expect further extensions to SPX Table 2 shows that at SPX2478 the S&P500 reached the 1.618x extension of Major-1, measured from Major-2, to the T and can thus be possible completed (hence, the alternate count). Since intermediate-iii at 2401 was off by 6.5p, we can however give this a bit more leeway: SPX2484. This would fit then also better with the intermediate-v target (SPX2488) and minor-5 target (SPX2485). But, we are now clearly entering the territory of one more wave up or not. And betting on that one (heavily) will become an increasingly risky position: forewarned is forearmed. Table 1: Ideal wave tracker table for minute-waves of minor-5. Table 2, 3, 4: Ideal wave tracker tables for major-3, intermediate-v and minor-5 targets (blue cells) Once either the ideal target zone is reached or the market tells us it topped at SPX2478, I can then start to set targets for major-4, and we ll look again at the two big-picture counts I carry (see here); no need to front run anything yet. But, please remember 4 th waves are difficult to track and trade: they can do anything they want. They can become a flat (in all its shapes and sizes) or become a triangle (also in all its shapes and sizes). Since major-2 was quick and sharp to the downside, the rule of alternation would suggest that this can be a grinding major-4 (basing for major-5). Also remember this is a bull market and the minute- and micro-waves can extend: while all wave degrees point to SPX the market can go beyond it. No guarantees, only probabilities of possibilities. Hence, already starting to aggressively short in anticipation of the upcoming 4th wave is not advisable, and shorting a 4 th wave should only be done by the pros, e.g. our investment firm NorthPost Partners, and not by faint of heart. 4 P a g e

5 The daily chart of the S&P500 continues to point to SPX2485. Momentum (RSI5 and MACD) peaked at minute-iii, and price remains above all Simple Moving Averages (5d to 200d) as well as above the long-term trend line, upper reed trendline and within the green Elliott Wave Channel. There are no sell signals on any TI yet. Thus, the daily chart tells us to continue to look up; also since the Bollinger Bands are still expanding. Price has strength. All fits with my preferred view that we need to see one more wave (minute-v) up. Figure 2. SPX daily TI chart: new ATHs, no sell signals anywhere, price bullishly above trendlines and SMAs. 5 P a g e

6 The weekly chart of the S&P500 continues to look long and strong as well, and price is finally getting close to my long term symmetry target of -you guessed it- SPX2485. Last week s weekly A.I. buy signal got confirmed this week, while the MACD is not on a buy. The latter tells us things are indeed weakening as the A.I. is not a momentum-based indicator. But, price continues to be above all the weekly SMAs, and which in turn are all bullishly stacked: price>20w>50w>100w>150w>200w. Hence, this chart also tells us to look up to the SPX2485 target at a minimum. The weekly chart shows rather clearly the 1,2,3,4 waves off the SPX2329 low. Figure 3. SPX weekly TI chart. Long term symmetry breakout target of SPX2485 now in reach low 6 P a g e

7 Since my analyses of the NDX was very helpful in determining where the market was/is two weeks agoi continue to look at the daily NDX chart. The almost ideal A.I. buy signal remains on buy, all other TIs are pointing up. There s no negative divergences on the RSI5, and the MACD is still on a buy and has reached peak momentum, which coincides with a 3 rd of a 3 rd wave. The Bollinger Bands are still expanding, with price at the upper band: strength. The chart continues to tell us to look up, and the $6104 target (2.00x Fib-extension) determined two weeks ago remains. Figure 4 NDX daily TI chart: intermediate-v to ideally $6104 underway. 7 P a g e

8 Market breadth & Simple Moving Averages Charts The SPXSI (Summation Index for the S&P500, derived from the McClellan Oscillator for S&P500 (SPXMO)) remains on a buy since the buy-signal from earlier this week as breadth remains positive, albeit only in the region. Ideally one would like to see readings over 60 to tell us this rally has (longer term) legs. In fact, the current rally has the weakest breadth since intermediate-v started, with the minor-1 rally peaking at +50, minor-3 at +65, and is the lower max breadth (+35) is also supportive of the minor-5 of intermediate-v of major-3 thesis. Figure 5B shows that the weekly SPX-A/D is making new ATHs: no major correction until we see negative divergence and lower lows. Simple as that. Thus, this chart adds to the weight of the evidence for higher prices going forward. Figure 5. A) SPXSI pointing on a -weaker breadth- buy. B) Weekly SPX-A/D making new ATHs. A B 8 P a g e

9 The long-term Simple Moving Averages only chart (LT-SMA, for trend followers and long-term traders) continues to be 100% bullish: It s telling long-term traders to stay long and strong. As such this chart also continues to support our overall view of the market and where it will head over the next several months: higher. Our short-term chart (ST-SMA, for short term to swing traders) increased from around 95% bullish last week to 100% Bullish this week; confirming the minor-5 wave as well. Figure 6. A: LT-SMA chart 100% bullish B: ST-SMA chart 100% Bullish. A Copyright Intelligent Investing. May not be distributed without permission. B Copyright Intelligent Investing. May not be distributed without permission. 9 P a g e

10 Fib-based Trading Interval Turn dates & Remaining Bradley Turn Dates for 2017 The most recent turn-date of July 18 was last Tuesday s low. Hence, although correct, turn-dates can t tell us the magnitude and direction beforehand. The next shorter-term turn date is August 8, whereas the intermediate and longer-term turn date is set for August 3. Hence, given the current market action we can continue to ask if can we expect the market to top first week of August?! It wouldn t be the first time August 19 (17/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) September 5 (17/100 Declinations Power) September 7 (29/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) October 7 (48/100 Middle Terms Power) December 3 (23/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) December 6 (100/100 Long Terms Power) ALOHA Soul, Ph.D. 10 P a g e

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