Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. February 9, Daily Swing

Transcription

1 Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on February 9, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports Negative High Negative High NDX Negative High Negative High S&P Inverse Fund Positive N/A * Positive Low CRB Index Negative High Negative High Gold Negative Low Negative High XAU Negative High Negative High Dollar Positive Low Positive High Bonds Negative High Negative High Crude Oil Negative High Negative High Unleaded Negative High Negative High Natural Gas Negative High Negative High *Since this fund is quoted at the end of the day it is impossible for the concept of swing highs and lows to apply on a daily level. The primary interests here are the weekly developments. The daily is representative of the short-term and the weekly is representative of the intermediate-term

2 Short-term Updates Note on the Cycle Turn Indicator The most important indicator we have is the Cycle Turn Indicator and the most important timeframe, at least in my mind, is the intermediate-term. This indicator has proven itself time and time again. In reality, this is all we really need to know. Everything else is secondary. That being said, please be sure to monitor the "Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary" above. Red indicates that a swing high and down turn of the Cycle Turn Indicator has occurred and lower prices should follow. The only exception here is that on the daily stock market signals we also want to see both the slow cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. Yellow, is cautionary meaning that the Cycle Turn Indicator and the swing are not in agreement, which is typically indicative of a trend change. Green, means that a swing low has occurred and that the Cycle Turn Indicator is positive, which should be followed by higher prices. Again, the only exception here is the daily stock market signals in that we want to see both the slow Cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. For everything else, all that matters is the formation of a swing and the direction of the Cycle Turn Indicator. All subscribers who do not understand cyclical translation should click here "Notes for New Subscribers." It is important that you read and understand the content found in both of the PDF files that you will find at this link.

3 February 11, 2018 Stocks End of Week Weekly Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) CTI on Rydex Tempest Fund * Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Advance/Decline Issues Diff New High New Low Diff Secondary Indicators Bullish Bullish Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator *When this indictor is Bullish it is negative for the market and visa versa. Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Slow Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) New High/New Low Differential Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) McClellan Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) McClellan Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator (ITVM) McClellan Summation Index McClellan Volume Summation Index Bullish Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator Trading Cycle Oscillator Bullish Momentum Indicator Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator Bullish Crossover Accumulation/Distribution Index Bullish I want to again start this update by addressing an issue. I have had computer and website issues numerous times over the last year. The website is safe to go to, so it s nothing like that. The issue with the site has been malicious attacks on the site itself. Also, I have had pretty much constant issues for a while now with my previous addresses, which were also malicious attacks in that my has been blown up with spam. This has in turn forced me to create a new address. I have been reluctant to make my new address public, but I do now need to make it available to you. My new address is timwood1@cyclesman.com Therefore, if you have tried to contact me by and not heard back from me this is why. Please accept my apology if I have not responded to your as this has been a serious ongoing problem. I ask that you please keep this address confidential and that if you need to send me an attachment please call me, so that I know it is coming and that it is legit. If you have a question I would really rather you simply pick up the phone and give me a quick call. Or,

4 if for some reason you don t hear from me by call me. If I should miss your call, I will call you back. With the close on Friday, the intermediate-term sell signals in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Gasoline and Natural Gas have been confirmed. My CRB data was not updating earlier in the week and I did not catch that at the time, but we now also have an intermediate-term sell signal on the CRB Index itself. In addition, we also have monthly swing highs in the making on all of the above. As a result, every indication is that the turn point has taken hold and that we should have the long awaited intermediate-term and seasonal cycle tops in place. The intermediate-term cycle low in the Dollar has not yet been confirmed as we still need to see the completion of a weekly swing low and the triggering of an intermediate-term buy signal. Bonds should be at or near their trading cycle low. If a weekly swing low is formed in conjunction with the advance out of this trading cycle low then we may prove to also have the intermediate-term cycle low in place there as well. Otherwise, the expectation is for another trading cycle down into the intermediate-term and seasonal cycle low in Bonds. More on this all as it develops. As for Equities, the turn point obviously took hold there as well in that the intermediate-term sell signal from the week of February 2nd remains intact and has lead to further weakness that has now also put a monthly swing high into motion. Based on these developments, every indication is that we have both the intermediate-term and seasonal cycle top in place. So, in spite of the continued advance into these cycle highs, I want to point out that Commodities have proven to have turned here along with the turn in Equities as anticipated. This intermediateterm cycle low in Equities is ideally due in conjunction with the pending trading cycle low, but because of the extreme right-translation of the intermediate-term cycle I have expressed my concern about there being enough time left within this trading cycle for the intermediate-term cycle top to form. The same also holds for the seasonal cycle low, which is ideally due in conjunction with the intermediate-term cycle low. We are simply going to have to see what the structure yields as we move forward here. Short-term, price has moved into the early side of the timing band for the trading cycle low. This, along with the price reversal seen on Friday and the oscillator divergences that have begun to form are suggestive of the pending and now due trading cycle low. However, until we see the completion of a daily swing low and upturn of the Primary Short-Term Indicators, we cannot say that the trading cycle low has been seen. Ideally, I would like to see another push down into the middle portion of the timing band for the trading cycle low. That said, a daily swing low and the triggering of a short-term buy signal is key.

5 The first chart below shows our distribution indicator. The red intermediate-term Advancing issues line is tied to the intermediate-term cycle, which continues to weaken and in doing so the green line continues to weaken further below the black line. This crossing, in conjunction with the divergence was suggestive of the anticipated intermediate-term cycle top, which has proven to have been the case.

6 The Trading Cycle Oscillator in the upper window remains positive in association with what should be the beginning of a divergence in conjunction with the trading cycle low. The Momentum indicator remains negative. The stochastic in the middle window has turned back down. I suspect that the divergences we are seeing here are in association with the pending trading cycle low. The first of our Primary Short-Term Indicators is the New High New Low Differential, plotted with price, which remains positive. The Trend Indicator remains below its trigger line.

7 The Three Primary Short-Term Indicators are the Original and the Slow Cycle Turn Indicators, both plotted below, and the NYSE New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price above. Until a daily swing low is formed and confirmed by an upturn of ALL Three of these indicators, the existing short-term sell signal will remain intact. A daily swing low will be completed on Monday if Friday s low holds and if Friday s high is bettered.

8 Both the Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator and the Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator remain negative.

9 The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes are also used to measure the intermediateterm internals. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator in the upper window is shorter-term in nature and is therefore used to help identify the shorter-term tops and bottoms, but it is also useful in identifying intermediate-term cycle tops and bottoms. Both the McClellan Volume Summation Index and the McClellan Summation Index remain in gear to the downside as well. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator has turned marginally above its trigger line and a short-term divergence has begun to form, which, here too, should be telegraphing the trading cycle low.

10 Next is the Smoothed McClellan Oscillator, which remains well below its trigger line.

11 The short-term Accumulation/Distribution Index has turned back up and the divergence that has begun to form here is also suggestive of the pending trading cycle low.

12 Our weekly chart of the Industrials is next. This cycle last bottomed the week of August 25th and the timing band for the now due intermediate-term cycle low runs between December 15th and February 16th. In spite of the stretching of this cycle into an extremely right-translated intermediate-term cycle top, the top nonetheless came as did the snap back. Again, I want to stress that this cycle is ideally due to bottom in conjunction with the pending trading cycle low, but because of the timing for this trading cycle low I m not sure how the making of this low is going to pan out. I m not convinced that there won t be another trading cycle down. Once the current trading cycle low is in place the opportunity for the completion of a weekly swing low will be at hand. If we see that development, then we can at that time say that we have evidence with regard to the intermediate-term cycle low. Until then, I think we need to be a little cautious about this low because it s not just the intermediate-term cycle low that is due, but also the seasonal cycle low and as I said before the decline even got started, I had concern and still do with these higher degree cycle lows all occurring within the confines of this next/pending trading cycle low. The first step is the trading cycle low and in the meantime, this intermediate-term sell signal will stand until another weekly swing low is formed and confirmed by an upturn of the weekly CTI. A weekly swing low will be completed in the coming week if 23, holds and if 25, is bettered. In Summary: We have intermediate-term sell signals in the metals, the metal stocks, the energy complex, the commodity complex and equities. These signals should mark intermediate-term and where due, the seasonal cycle tops. Short-term, conditions are ripening for the trading cycle low in Equities, but until a short-term buy signal is triggered, we cannot say that this low has been seen. Big Picture: This is proving to be the anticipated decline into the intermediateterm and seasonal cycle low in Equities, but I do not think the higher degree 4-year cycle top has been seen. As discussed in the February research letter, we ideally need to see another seasonal cycle up in order to see a more complete setup develop.

13 I have been asked what it would take for this to begin to be evident of the higher degree top and the short answer is the triggering of a Primary Trend Change, which is not likely to happen in conjunction with the decline into the pending intermediate-term and secondary low point. The current Dow Theory chart can be found below. Now, if the advance out of the pending intermediate-term/secondary low point should prove to be a failure that is then followed by a decline below the now pending intermediate-term/secondary low point, then at that time we would have a Primary Trend Change. At this time, I do not anticipate this occurring and I still think there is another new high with the next seasonal cycle advance. But, if it should happen, then it would be what it would be and as marginal as the setup with the current DNA Markers are, at that point, I would have to conclude that they had been legitimized. Regardless, we have an intermediate-term advance coming and one way or the other it will tell the tale. I m sticking with there being another seasonal cycle up until the market proves otherwise.

14 Gold End of Week Weekly Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Bullish Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Bullish Cycle Momentum Indicator Bullish Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The last trading cycle low was seen on January 18th and so far the decline out of the January 25th trading cycle top has been a little slow to get going with respect to Silver and the metal stocks. However, every indication is that we should ideally have the higher degree intermediateterm cycle top in place and the timing band for the next trading cycle low runs between February 13th and February 27th. Short-term, this decline has moved to slightly oversold levels, which makes conditions ripe for a bounce, but any bounce from here should be followed by further weakness into the timing band for the trading cycle low.

15 I have been including the daily XAU chart, but in light of Friday s price action I have also included the HUI in this update. The point here is to show you that the HUI not only moved below its December 2017 intermediate-term cycle low on Friday, but it also moved to its lowest level since December So again, if the 2015 low marked the 9-year cycle low, this has been a pathetic 9-year cycle advance. As a result of this price action, I still think that there is a better than average chance that the 9-year cycle low still lies ahead in conjunction with the next intermediate-term cycle low. The XAU has not yet broken its December 2017 low, but it s very close and it is also back to its December 2016 low as well. The daily XAU chart is the lower chart below.

16 Our weekly chart of gold is next. The timing band for the current intermediate-term cycle low ran between November 3rd and December 22nd and this low was seen the week of December 15th. The price action the week of February 2nd completed the formation of a weekly swing high and as a result of the additional weakness seen this past week the weekly CTI, plotted with price, turned down and in doing so, an intermediate-term sell signal was triggered. As of this intermediate-term sell signal, we can only assume that the anticipated intermediate-term cycle top has now been confirmed. The timing band for the next intermediate-term cycle low runs between April 6th and May 25th. If the 9-year cycle low does in fact still lie ahead, then the decline into this next intermediate-term cycle low MUST carry Gold down below the 2015 low. If that does not happen, then the 2015 low marked the 9-year cycle low and we have a very weak 9-year cycle on our hands. In fact, if this should prove to be the case, then I would argue that this 9-year cycle advance is already at risk of failing. More on this all once we see where the next intermediate-term cycle low occurs. For now, we have an intermediate-term sell signal in place and lower prices into the intermediate-term cycle low should continue to weigh on Gold.

17 Below is the weekly chart of the HUI and the XAU. In this case, the intermediate-term sell signals led Gold and were triggered the week of February 2nd. Those signals still remain intact and we also now have monthly swing highs in the marking that have thus far also been confirmed by downturns of the monthly CTI.

18 Monthly CRB Index As the seasonal cycle advance out of the June 2017 seasonal cycle low began, the expectation was for it to be a counter-trend advance/retest of the January 2017 seasonal cycle top. The expectation also was for this advance to peak in late summer or fall, but as with everything else it pressed on longer than anticipated and it managed to make a slightly higher high above the January 2017 high. All the same, we knew that this last turn point had a high probability of taking hold in that the expectation was for it to mark the intermediate-term and seasonal cycle top. We now have not only an intermediate-term sell signal in place on the CRB, but also a monthly swing high is in the making and the oscillator picture is suggestive of the anticipated seasonal cycle top. More confirmation of the seasonal cycle top is still needed, but until proven otherwise the assumption is that the seasonal cycle top has likely been seen. In addition, the expectation is for this seasonal cycle top to now mark the 3-year cycle top. The first piece of structural evidence to that effect will be the completion of a quarterly swing high. More on that as it develops.

19 Dollar End of Week Weekly Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Bullish Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Bullish Secondary Indicators Stochastic Bullish Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy/Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Bullish Bullish Bullish Cycle Momentum Indicator Bullish Secondary Indicators Stochastic Bullish No change with the Dollar. The timing band for the now due trading cycle low runs between January 26th and February 9th and every indication continues to be that the trading cycle low was seen on January 25th. This advance remains slightly overbought and one of the tests with regard to the higher degree intermediate-term cycle low is how the Dollar responds to this overbought reading. Bottom line, we need to see this trading cycle unfold with a righttranslated structure if the higher degree intermediate-term cycle low is in fact in place and ultimately we must see the next trading cycle low hold above the January 25th trading cycle low for further confirmation. For now, so far, so good as we await the confirmation of what should be the higher degree intermediate-term cycle low, the current short-term buy signal will continue to hold until a daily swing high is formed and confirmed by a downturn of the daily CTI, plotted with price.

20 Next is our weekly chart of the Dollar. The timing band for the now due intermediate-term cycle low runs between December 29th and February 16th. Based on this phasing, this low should have occurred in conjunction with the January 25th trading cycle low. However, we still need to see the completion of a weekly swing low AND upturn of the weekly CTI, plotted with price, in order to trigger an intermediate-term buy signal as evidence of this low. The oscillator picture does look promising here, but again, we must see a weekly swing low and intermediate-term buy signal. In addition, we are going to need to see a right-translated trading cycle advance as additional confirmation of this low. A weekly swing low will be completed in the coming week if holds and if is bettered. Bigger picture: The evidence continues to suggest that the Dollar is in the process of making the 4-year cycle low and anytime a higher degree low is being made, it is not uncommon to see the lower degree cycles contract a bit, especially when there has been a washout type move. The assumption is that there is one more intermediate-term cycle down to follow, but if the next intermediate-term cycle low should hold above the current/pending intermediate-term cycle low, then at such time the evidence is going to point toward the now due low as having marked the clustering of higher degree lows. Bottom line, there is a higher degree clustering of lows that had possibly bottomed in conjunction with the September seasonal cycle low. But, that low did not hold and now this clustering of lows is due with either the now due intermediate-term cycle low, or ideally with one more intermediate-term cycle down. Either way, the 4-year cycle low is in the making.

21 Bonds End of Week Weekly Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Bullish Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Bullish Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The timing band for the current trading cycle low runs between February 1st and February 22nd. We now sit in the middle portion of the timing band for this low and the price/oscillator picture has continued to ripen in association with this additional push down into the middle portion of this timing band. Once a daily swing low is formed and confirmed by an upturn of the daily CTI, a buy signal will be triggered and the trading cycle low should then be in place.

22 Our weekly chart of bonds is next. The intermediate-term cycle low last bottomed in association with the October 27th weekly swing low and the timing band for the now pending intermediate-term cycle low runs between February 16th and May 11th. This intermediateterm cycle low should correspond with the higher degree seasonal cycle low as well as what I think will also be the 3-year cycle low. Yes, it did appear at the time as if the March 2017 seasonal cycle low marked the 3-year cycle low. However, that low did not hold and when looking at the quarterly chart of the Stochastic CTI, which moves to oversold levels in association with the 3-year cycle low, it never turned up out of the March 2017 low and remains at oversold levels. Looking at the overall oscillator picture at that level it appears as if we have seen another seasonal cycle down and that the 3-year cycle low should be seen in conjunction with the pending intermediate-term and seasonal cycle low. The other alternative is that the March low was the 3-year cycle low and that we now have a failed and left-translated 3-year cycle at play and I m just not buying that. The advance out of the pending intermediate-term and seasonal cycle low will be key with regard to the higher degree 3-year cycle low. Regardless of the higher degree 3-year cycle low, the pending intermediate-term cycle low should prove to coincided with the seasonal cycle low. Once a weekly swing low is formed and confirmed by an upturn of the weekly CTI, plotted with price, this low should be in place. We will also need to see a right-translated trading cycle advance as additional confirmation as well.

23 Crude Oil The February 1st short-term sell signal remains intact. The price action this week also put a weekly swing high into motion that was confirmed by a downturn of the weekly CTI. Now, with the weekly close we also have an intermediate-term sell signal in place. In addition, we also now have a monthly swing high in the making. Therefore, every indication is that we have the intermediate-term and seasonal cycle top in place as anticipated. Short-term, this decline has carried price to oversold levels, per the stochastic, which makes conditions ripe for a shortterm low. In light of the intermediate-term sell signal and the monthly swing high that is now in the making, any strength here should ideally prove to be counter-trend. That said, the next structural development in further confirming the intermediate-term cycle top will be the failure of a short-term bounce. Bottom line, the short-term sell signal will remain intact until another daily swing low is formed and confirmed by an upturn of the daily CTI. A daily swing low will be completed on Monday if holds and if is bettered.

24 Next is our weekly chart of crude oil. As stated above, the price action this past week completed the formation of a weekly swing high that was confirmed by a downturn of the weekly CTI. In doing so, an intermediate-term sell signal was triggered and every indication is that the long awaited intermediate-term cycle top is in place. Bottom line, until a weekly swing low is formed and confirmed by an upturn of the weekly CTI, this intermediate-term sell signal will stand and overall lower prices are expected. We also have an intermediate-term sell signal in Natural Gas, Gasoline and the OSX. As with Crude Oil, monthly swing highs are also now in the making across the board as well. Every indication is that the turn point took hold and that the anticipated top in the energy sector is likely in place Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved Click Below To Contact the Web Master timwood1@cyclesman.com