Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. March 28, Daily CTI. Swing

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1 Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on March 28, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports Positive Low Negative High NDX Positive High Positive High S&P Inverse Fund Negative N/A * Negative High CRB Index Negative High Positive High Gold Negative High Negative Low XAU Negative High Positive Low Dollar Positive Low Negative Low Bonds Positive Low Positive Low Crude Oil Negative High Positive Low Unleaded Negative High Positive Low Natural Gas Negative Low Negative High *Since this fund is quoted at the end of the day it is impossible for the concept of swing highs and lows to apply on a daily level. The primary interests here are the weekly developments. The daily is representative of the short-term and the weekly is representative of the intermediate-term Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 3

2 Short-term Updates Note on the Cycle Turn Indicator The most important indicator we have is the Cycle Turn Indicator and the most important timeframe, at least in my mind, is the intermediate-term. This indicator has proven itself time and time again. In reality, this is all we really need to know. Everything else is secondary. That being said, please be sure to monitor the "Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary" above. Red indicates that a swing high and down turn of the Cycle Turn Indicator has occurred and lower prices should follow. The only exception here is that on the daily stock market signals we also want to see both the slow cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. Yellow, is cautionary meaning that the Cycle Turn Indicator and the swing are not in agreement, which is typically indicative of a trend change. Green, means that a swing low has occurred and that the Cycle Turn Indicator is positive, which should be followed by higher prices. Again, the only exception here is the daily stock market signals in that we want to see both the slow Cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. For everything else, all that matters is the formation of a swing and the direction of the Cycle Turn Indicator. All subscribers who do not understand cyclical translation should click here "Notes for New Subscribers." It is important that you read and understand the content found in both of the PDF files that you will find at this link. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 4

3 Stocks End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) CTI on Rydex Tempest Fund * Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Advance/Decline Issues Diff New High New Low Diff Secondary Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator *When this indictor is it is negative for the market and visa versa. March 28, 2019 Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Slow Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) New High/New Low Differential Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) McClellan Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) McClellan Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator (ITVM) McClellan Summation Index McClellan Volume Summation Index Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator Trading Cycle Oscillator Momentum Indicator Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator Crossover Accumulation/Distribution Index The March 22nd short-term sell signal on the Industrials remains intact and the timing band for this low runs between March 22nd and April 12th. Structure does not support the March 25th daily swing low as having marked the trading cycle low and for that reason, the expectation continues to be suggestive of the trading cycle low still being ahead. Any additional strength from here should be a retest of the trading cycle top or final probe into that top. We did see a short-term buy signal on the Transports on Thursday, but thus far, we still have short-term sell signals on the the AMEX, the NYSE, the Russell 2000, the CAC, the DAX, and the FTSE. This trading cycle top in Equities continues to be an opportunity to also cap the higher level intermediate-term cycle advance out of the December low, but it obviously continues to be a slow and trying process that is not yet over. I will cover this all more with the week s close in the weekend update. Gold completed the formation of a daily swing high on Wednesday, per the parameters given in the Tuesday night update. As a result, a short-term sell signal was triggered and the trading cycle top should be in place. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 5

4 The XAU followed suit on Wednesday, so we should also have the trading cycle top in place there as well. Crude Oil re-triggered another short-term sell signal on Wednesday and as with Equities the top continues trying to take hold. Another short-term sell signal was also triggered on the CRB Index on Wednesday and the price action this week has put another weekly swing high into motion as the top here also continues trying to take hold. The short-term buy signal in the Dollar remains intact and we may well have seen an early trading cycle low, which we remain in the process of confirming. This remains an important juncture for the Dollar and we must now see the current/pending trading cycle advance unfold with a right-translated structure. Otherwise, it will leave the Dollar positioned for further weakness into the seasonal cycle low. The short-term buy signal on the 30-year Bond remains intact as it continues extending into the trading cycle top. I began talking about the weakening of the 3 and 5-year Bond yields several weeks ago and this trend continues to be a warning sign of trouble for Equities. Such breaks were also seen in conjunction with the 2000 and the 2007 tops and as I first warned it is the current breaks, in conjunction with the evidence of an intermediate-term cycle top in Equities, which continue to be warning signs for Equities. We have also since seen the weakening of the long-term Bond yield, but thus far the 90 day T-Bill has managed to hold. However, I think it s coming. I will share more on this with you in the weekend update. Below is our distribution indicator. The red intermediate-term Advancing issues line is tied to the intermediate-term cycle, which has ticked up. The green MA line continues to weaken, which continues to serve as another indication of the intermediate-term cycle top. The black MA line continues to weaken as well. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 6

5 The Trading Cycle Oscillator in the upper window has ticked up. The Momentum indicator in the upper window remains below its zero line, but has also ticked up. The stochastic in the middle window has turned up as well. While the upturn of these indicators is suggestive of the trading cycle low, the structure does not support it. Therefore, the trading cycle low should still lie ahead. The first of our Primary Short- Term Indicators is the New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price, which has ticked back down. The Trend Indicator remains below its trigger line. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 7

6 The Three Primary Short-Term Indicators are the Original and the Slow Cycle Turn Indicators, both plotted below, and the NYSE New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price above. Bottom line, the price action on March 22nd completed the formation of a daily swing high that was confirmed by a downturn of ALL Three of the Primary Short-Term Indicators, which in turn triggered a short-term sell signal. This sell signal remains intact and is an opportunity to cap the intermediate-term cycle top. This short-term sell signal will remain intact until a daily swing low is formed AND confirmed by an upturn of ALL Three of the Primary Short-Term Indicators. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 8

7 Both the Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator and the Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator remain below their trigger lines and the overall oscillator behavior continues to be reflective of the trading and what should also ideally prove to be the intermediate-term cycle top as well. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 9

8 The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes are also used to measure the intermediate- term internals. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator in the upper window is shorter-term in nature and is therefore used to help identify the shorter-term tops and bottoms, but it is also useful in identifying intermediate-term cycle tops and bottoms. Both the McClellan Summation Index and the McClellan Volume Summation Index continue moving lower. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator remains above its trigger line, which makes it positive as we use it. A cross back below the trigger line should be indicative of the resumption of the decline into the trading cycle low. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 10

9 Next is the Smoothed McClellan Oscillator, which has turned back up and is sitting right on its trigger line. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 11

10 The Accumulation/Distribution Index ticked up on Tuesday and remains above its trigger line. In Summary, the March 11th low marked the half-trading cycle low and the March 22nd short-term sell signal continues to be suggestive of the trading cycle top. The current short-term oscillator picture is suggestive of a bounce, but the accompanying structure is not suggestive of any such bounce having marked the trading cycle low. This trading cycle top also continues to be an opportunity to cap the intermediateterm advance out of the December low and in the case of the Industrials, the assumption is that the intermediate-term cycle top is in place. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 12

11 Gold End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The trading cycle low was seen on March 7th. We knew that the short-term price/oscillator picture was suggestive of the trading cycle top and that this advance should be counter trend. Per the parameters given here on Tuesday night, a daily swing high was completed on Wednesday, which was confirmed by the downturn of the daily CTI. As a result, a short-term sell signal was triggered and the trading cycle top should be in place. This is also now an opportunity to cap the overall counter-trend advance out of the March low, but we next need to see the completion of a weekly swing high and the triggering of an intermediate-term sell signal as evidence to that effect. The timing band for the next trading cycle low runs between April 2nd and April 26th. The decline into this low should be underway and we should now see further overall weakness into the timing band for this low as the oscillators are pulled to oversold levels. At a higher level, more confirmation of the seasonal cycle top is needed, but until Gold can prove otherwise, the assumption will continue to be that the higher degree seasonal cycle advance out of the August low has run its course. The intermediate-term cycle low is due with either the recent trading cycle low or the next. More on that once we see what the structure of this trading cycle yields, but as of now the evidence suggests that the intermediate-term cycle low was seen in conjunction with the last trading cycle low and that we now have a failed and left-translated intermediate-term cycle in the making. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 13

12 Our daily chart of the XAU is next. As with Gold, the advance out of the March 7th trading cycle low was/is expected to be counter-trend and on Thursday a short-term sell signal was triggered. As a result, this is also now an opportunity to cap the intermediate-term advance here as well. Once a weekly swing high and downturn of the weekly CTI is seen, an intermediate-term sell signal will be triggered and the assumption will be that the higher degree cycle top has also been seen here as well. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 14

13 Dollar End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic No change with the Dollar. The last confirmed trading cycle low was seen on February 28th and the timing band for the current trading cycle low runs between March 26th and April 9th. Because of the higher degree cycle low, we have been and will continue to give the Dollar the benefit of the doubt with regard to the potential of an early trading cycle low. The March 20th daily swing low was a few days early for the trading cycle low but, when steep declines are seen it is not unusual to see the decline into the cycle low burn out a little early and we have seen a couple of early trading cycle lows recently. Until the Dollar proves otherwise, we will assume this is what has occurred. But, with price now moving into the timing band for the trading cycle low, in the event there should prove to be another push down below the March 20th low, while the Dollar is within this timing band, then we will at that time have to assume that we have seen an additional push down within the normal timing band for the trading cycle low. Bottom line, confirmation of the trading cycle low remains at hand and regardless of whether the low is in place or if there is another push down into the low, this trading cycle advance must unfold with a right-translated structure. Continued strength as we approach the end of this timing band will be suggestive of the trading cycle low having occurred early, while a move below the March 20th low will be suggestive of a final probe into the trading cycle low. More on this as it develops. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 15

14 Bonds End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The advance out of the March 1st trading cycle low remains intact and Bonds have moved into the early portion of the timing band for the current trading cycle low. The oscillator picture remains ripe for the top, but until a daily swing high is formed and confirmed by a downturn of the daily CTI, this short-term buy signal and the push into the trading cycle top will continue. The timing band for the next trading cycle low runs between March 22nd and April 12th. As a result of the right-translated trading cycle advance, the decline out of this trading cycle top should be counter-trend and higher prices in association with the higher degree cycle lows should follow. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 16

15 Crude Oil The price action on Tuesday completed the formation of another daily swing low that was reconfirmed by another upturn of the daily CTI, which re-triggered another short-term buy signal. On Wednesday another daily swing high was re-confirmed by another downturn of the daily CTI, which re-triggered another shortterm sell signal. On Thursday Crude Oil moved lower, but reversed off the lows. As of Thursday s close, Wednesday s short-term sell signal remains in force and the expectation continues to be for the advance out of the December low to be an intermediate-term/counter-trend advance that will peak in close proximity with Equities. This short-term sell signal remains marginal at this point, but it is an opportunity to cap the higher degree intermediate-term advance and will remain intact until another daily swing low is completed and re-confirmed by another upturn of the daily CTI. But, in order for a turn of that degree to take hold, we must see a short-term sell signal that is followed by the completion of a weekly swing high and downturn of the weekly CTI. Until then, the turn is still not yet. A daily swing low will be completed on Friday if holds and if is bettered. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 17

16 Gasoline The price action on Wednesday completed the formation of a daily swing high that was confirmed by a downturn of the daily CTI, which triggered a short-term sell signal here as well. This sell signal is reflective of the top in Crude Oil and is also an opportunity to cap the intermediate-term advance out of the December low. As with Crude Oil, the next step here is the completion of a weekly swing high and the triggering of an intermediate-term sell signal Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved timwood1@cyclesman.com Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 18