Tech is weakest and has already moved below its SPX2604 low. Hence it is logical to assume the S&P will follow suit soon.
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- Grace Underwood
- 5 years ago
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1 Yesterday I concluded If my count is correct than minute-i of minor-c/1 is soon complete and we should see a short and brief minute-ii bounce before iii of c/3 gets going. Little did I know that today would provide for (another) extended 5 th wave and minute i/a should be complete and minute ii/b underway to the shown grey target zone (Fig 1A), between SPX and ideally between Note that all bounces in this current market environment have only met minimum requirements (23.6 to 38.2% retraces), so one shouldn t count on too much upside. It could therefore be that all of b/ii already completed today and a drop below today s lows will confirm that minute-iii/c is underway. Some of you have asked why I label things as a/i, b/2, etc. I do this because one never knows beforehand if it is three waves down or five waves down (or up for that matter). Especially in corrections, waves can do anything, but for now the micro waves continue to be impulse (1 to 5) and thus the numeric labeling is preferred. Tech is weakest and has already moved below its SPX2604 low. Hence it is logical to assume the S&P will follow suit soon. Figure 1. A) SPX 1-min chart. Minor-c underway. B) NAS 1-min chart. Similar as the S&P500. Minor-c confirmed and should be subdividing lower. A B 1 P a g e
2 My preferred paths forward continue to track the price action well, and I ll keep it until the market tells us something else is going on. Indeed a simple a, b, c down to SPX2600 for a double bottom (dotted arrow) cannot be excluded, but since Tech (NDX/NAS) has already moved well-below its October low following along the grey, green and red paths well, I foresee the SPX to do the same. Note that crashes happen from oversold levels, not from overboughth and currently the market is in such environment with still plenty of complacency as the total put call ratio ended today at only 0.97 (noise) and the equities only put/call ratio at 0.82, which is high but still not extreme (>0.95). Figure 2. A) SPX daily chart: The bounce to SPX2647 was all we got for b/2. Dotted arrow shows an a,b,c down to SXP2600 for a double bottom is possible, but not preferred. B) Ideal path to ~$6250 still follows price well. 2 P a g e
3 By letting the charts speak, the weight of the evidence was continously Bearish and told us to continue to look lower, as I concluded yesterday All in all, this is not a fresh and strong looking Bull, but that of a Bear. All until proven otherwise, but for each day that passes nothing has been proven otherwise. Today only added more weight to the evidence of a Bear market as price moved even lower, NOT higher; Hallmark of a Bear. Now the MACD joined the on sell crowd as well. With price below its falling 20d to 200d SMAs, and soon a Bull market set up (price<20d<50d<200d) we must continue to look lower and all rallies must be treated as bounces followed by lower lows until proven otherwise. Figure 3. SPX daily chart. Price below all important SMAs (20d to 200d), no A.I. buy signal, now also a MACD sell signal, and closed below uptrend line: SPX2580 most likely next 3 P a g e
4 Today market breadth closed obviously lower on all indices and negative (see table 1, next page). Thus all McClellan Oscillators FTSOs remain on a sell, whereas the Summation Indices have turned down and are almost all on a sell as well (See table 1 next page). This added added weight to the evidence to expect lower prices ahead. Why? Bulls need positive breadth. When the technical indicators on the price charts are on sell and breadth follows along, then the tide is simple too strong for the Bulls to fight it. The 1-minute TICK saw fiveteen peaks <-800, and only two peak >+800 (highest reading 950, lowest -1230) today. Thus still no buying, and only mostly selling. Figure 4. SPXSI daily chart. Still on a Buy, but close to a sell. Most other SIs close or on Sell now as well. Bottomline: The expected b/2 wave (bounce) topped within the forecasted SPX target zone at SPX2747 on Friday. The break below SPX2790 as mentioned in the weekend update, without making a higher high first, told indeed correctly to expect lower prices as the NAS/NDX are already making lower lows, and the S&P is close. Yesterday I concluded Short term I can count five waves down off last Friday s high into today s low, albeit a marginal lower low can t be excluded. Well, little did I know, but that marginal lower low became a lot lower: extended 5 th wave. Ideally we ll see a wave-ii bounce to SPX2690 +/- 10p before minute-iii of minor-c/3 targets ideally SPX2590 +/- 5p. Note that the NDX/NAS already did a 38.2% retrace off their recent drop from Friday s high intra-day and could already have completed wave-ii. A move below today s low will confirm this thesis. SPX2590 +/- 5p could be enough for a double bottom as that would be where wave-c=a, but my preferrred view remains to continue to look lower in a 5-wave fashion all the way to SPX / NDX until proven otherwise. 4 P a g e
5 Table 1. Buy/Sell Signals based on Summation Indices. Table 2. Buy/Sell for the Exchanged Traded Funds (ETFs) SPY & SH and performance (intermediate- and long-term only) based on mechanical trading system. Short-term and intermediate-term is now available on my private twitter feed. Aloha, Dr. Arnout, aka Soul, ter Schure 2018, Intelligent Investing, LLC. This copyrighted daily periodical is published on most stock market trading days by Intelligent Investing, LLC, and is intended solely for use by designated recipients. No reproduction, retransmission, or other use of the information or images is authorized. Legitimate news media may quote representative passages, in context and with full attribution, for the purpose of reporting on our opinions. Analysis is derived from data believed to be accurate, but such accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that such analysis, past or future, will be profitable or will equal past performance or guarantee future performance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. Inclusion of our information for trading and investing are the sole responsibility of the reader and cannot be construed as any type of recommendation, nor solicitation. 5 P a g e
b/ii c/iii b/ii b/ii Figure 1. SPX 60-min chart. NAS 1-min chart.
On Monday I concluded Above SPX2690 opens the door for major-a having completed and major-b to SPX2800s is underway. Yesterday I then found that the recent SPX2631 low is an unusual point for a bottom
More informationFigure 1. SPX 60 min & NAS 1-min chart.
BINGO!? Today we reached the ideal SPX2625 target to the T (SPX2625.76) for wave-a. There s now negative divergence again on the hourly RSI5 and the hourly MACD (see Fig 1), while the daily indicators
More informationc=a Figure 1. SPX 60 min & NAS 1-min chart.
Today s drop came as expected and the S&P moved as low as SPX2562, but as said yesterday A move below today s low SPX2569 will be a first sign intermediate-b is underway, with confirmation below SPX2545.
More informationiii Figure 1. SPX 60-min chart.
Today the S&P500 (not the DJIA, NAS and NDX) made a marginally lower low below yesterday s low (SPX2527 vs SPX2529), which forced me to re-assess the short-term Elliott-wave count I have for this move
More informationIn addition, a word of advice: when in a Bear market and my Elliot Wave Count suggests either down or a few more subdivisions marginally higher
WOW, who would have known?! Price went from my upper target zone to my lower (see page 2) in just 11 trading hours: The S&P500 lost ~10p/hour Crazy. Big gap ups one day, followed by a 100p drop the next
More informationFigure 1. SPX 1-min chart. NAS 1-min chart.
In the weekend update I summarized my findings as Short-term the market should be close to completing intermediate-a, though based on a simple Bollinger Band Study, SPX2820 may well be reached first, which
More informationIn the weekend update I presented 3 different counts for the S&P in order of probability
In the weekend update I presented 3 different counts for the S&P in order of probability 1) micro-1 ongoing with nano-iv at SPX2578 and nano-v to SPX2595 underway (60%). 2) Micro-2 topped at SPX2590, micro-c
More informationFigure 1. SPX daily chart: Larger leading- or ending diagonal, with wave-4 of the diagonal now SPX2675ish now underway
This correction is full of surprises, twists, turns, sharp drops and rallies. That s why corrections are so hard to forecast compared to an impulse. Thus, with the market not complying too much, other
More informationFigure 1. SPX 60-min chart. Ending diagonal triangle forming, a set of nested 1,2 waves; or simple 3 waves down off SPX2800 to complete major-a?
In the weekend update I was looking for lower prices, and lower we got, but price did also close higher, i.e. above Fridays close. Another Bullish reversal candle? We ve seen plenty of these one-hit-wonders
More informationBecause the AD line made a new ATH, there s simple too much underlying strength to suggest a large third- or c-wave lower is just around the corner
The short term count remains a bit messy over the past three days, so we ll just look at trendlines instead: see Figure- 1. Hence, please don t focus on the wave labeling as the 2 nd SPX2699 low may have
More information1 P a g e. Table 1. Ideal wave tracker table for nano and micro-waves of minute-v
Yesterday I concluded We may get some profit taking over the Holiday; but it should only be corrective (small 4 th waves). And today certainly looked like that with only a 5p range on the S&P. Hence the
More information1 P a g e. Figure 1. NAS daily chart and S&P hourly chart: minute-v of minor-3 and micro-5 of minute-iv; respectively underway.
With TWTR up 18.5% today 1 and now AMZN, GOOGL and MSFT up 7.9%, 3.8%, and 3.8% after hours on earnings; respectively the QQQ (ETF that tracks the NASDAQ) is up 1% after hours too. Thus, the ideal standard
More informationIntelligent Investing, LLC Major Indices Daily Update 03/06/ 19
Elliot Wave Updates It is still technically possible for the S&P500 to be in minor-4, as it is becoming possible more complex, but since the RUT is IMHO already in a confirmed major-2/b down wave, see
More informationALOHA. Arnout aka Soul, Ph.D. 5 P a g e
I continue to use the wave-i, ii count as my preferred count until proven otherwise. Why? 1) Price bottomed last week right in the preferred target zone for wave-ii. No need to overthink that. 2) The entire
More informationSPX for the smaller major-4 triangle or SPX to complete the double zigzag. Figure 1.
Today s break -finally- below SPX2625 (and SPX2613) places the Ball now firmly in the Bears camp, albeit today s strong rally off the lows. And the two main bear counts remain the focus for now: SPX2579-2568
More informationFigure 1. NAS 1-min and SPX 60 min charts.
Today s update will be brief as price on most indices has now reached their upside targets for the anticipated intermediate wave-a. The NASDAQ has reached the upper end of its first resistance zone. If
More informationIntermediate-a? SPX2533
Summary Like last week, also this week s Friday-price action left a lot to be desired for the Bulls and ambiguity regarding which exact Elliot Wave price pattern remains: major-4 still underway? Major-4
More informationALOHA. Soul, Ph.D. 5 P a g e
Another day and another ATH for the S&P, DJIA, NYA but still not for the NDX, NAS and RUT. Thus wave-e of minutev is still underway to SPX2675-2725, with an ideal target zone of SPX2680-90. There was a
More informationFigure 1. Frost and Prechter
Clearly it is a Bull till it isn t and I ve been re-iterating this -albeit Elliot Wave Theory-wise things started to look complete- every update (Just read the conclusion of last Thursday s daily update
More information2 P a g e. Elliot Wave Updates
Summary Last week I concluded Short term there s a possibility to revisit SPX2700-2730 first before moving below SPX2600, but the most likely scenario is a direct move lower with an ultimate target of
More informationSymmetry target: 24000
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