What keeps me from being extremely Bullish (e.g. a move directly to SPX3200+ from current levels) is
|
|
- Margaret Phillips
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Summary Over the last month the market has been rather choppy and overlapping, invalidating several times standard Fib-based impulse patterns, leaving us therefore with what counts best as only a, b, c-waves up and down. This has made forecasting the markets next moves less certain and price targets often failed to be reached. What we do know is that overlapping three wave (a, b, c) patterns are part of ending diagonals, which in turn often occur in 5 th wave. Thus, we do know we are in an ending diagonal 5 th wave. But, how it is exactly unfolding remains somewhat uncertain. What we also know is that once this 5 th is complete we should expect at least a 450p decline on the S&P. Fast forward and at the end of this month we are still left with several options: The first option is bearish and has the market complete major-5 at SPX2941 or close to completeting it at ideally SPX2975 +/-5p. Downside risk: at least 450p, upside potential: 60p The second option has intermediate-iii still underway to ideally SPX2985 +/-5p before wave-iv gets going to ideally SPX , followed by wave-v to complete major-5 at ~SPX3100. The third option has intermediate-iii of major-5 complete and wave-iv is underway to ideally SPX , followed by wave-v to complete major-5 at ~SPX3015. How will we know which it option is operable? A break over SPX2941 -with a move over SPX2935 being the first good signal- confirms a move to SPX is underway; possible stalling at SPX2955ish. A break below SPX2886 -with a move below SPX2900 being the first good signal- confirms a move to at least SPX is underway. What keeps me from being extremely Bullish (e.g. a move directly to SPX3200+ from current levels) is a) Mostly negative market breadth with a negatively diverging NYAD this month b) A recent cluster of 10 Hindenburg Omens, the 2 nd largest in its history c) The weekly VIX is setup for a correction, be it small or large d) Technical indicators on the daily, weekly and monthly charts are negatively diverging All of these don t tell us when a market correction will occur as markets can stay irrational much longer than we think, and all divergences from technical to breadth-based can always be erased with a strong move higher. But, since all three of the Elliot Wave options presented can be counted as complete or (very) close to complete; there are thus enough lines of evidence in place to suggest any continued rally for the next months needs at a ~100p correction first either from current levels or from slightly higher levels. Aloha, Dr. Arnout, aka Soul, ter Schure 1 P a g e
2 Elliot Wave Updates Short term the market continues to be rather messy due to the overlapping a, b, c nature of the waves (standard impulse patterns have been negated several times as the S&P failed to hold key levels of support). I really wish it was different, but this leaves us with several options, aka uncertainties. The first (Fig. 1A) is bearish and has the market complete major-5 or close to completeting it at ideally SPX2975 +/-5p. The second (Fig. 1B) has intermediate-iii still underway to ideally SPX2985 +/-5p before wave-iv gets going to ideally SPX The third option (Fig. 1C) has intermediate-iii complete and iv is underway to ideally SPX How will we know which it ultimately will be? A break over SPX2941 is needed to confirm a move to SPX is underway and we can then eliminate Fig 1C. A break below SPX2886 is needed to confirm a move to SPX is underway and we can then eliminate Fig 1B. Figure 1. SPX daily charts. A) Major-5 in or close to in (SPX2975 target). B) intermediate-iii still underway (SPX2985 target). C) intermediate-iv underway (SPX target) A B C 2 P a g e
3 My preferred view of the NDX (Fig 2) has been for quite some time now that the price action aligns best with an ending diagonal (ED) intermediate-v wave and not a clean non-overlapping 5 th wave. Ending diagonals are rather common in 5 th waves and overlapping while rising prices are the name of the game. Hence the price-action for the past month should not come as a surprise. Minor-5 should be almost complete but can still reach as high as ~$8000, albeit the negative divergences on the MACD and On Balance Volume suggest it may not reach that high. Figure 2. A) NDX daily chart. looks and EW-counts best as that one more wave higher needed is almost complete. 3 P a g e
4 Chart Patterns Updates Last week the S&P closed lower four out of five days, with long upper wigs (selling pressure) the last three days. Nonetheless, up is up. The MACD and A.I remain on sell, wanting to see lower prices, while the Money Flow Index (MFI) broke below support. Price has been rejected at horizontal resistance (SPX2931) and at trendline resistance. Price must break above the declining black trendline to be able to make progress again (aligning with Fig 1A, B). A break below SPX2900 (horizontal and trendline support) targets SPX2865 (aligning with Fig 1C). Figure 3. S&P500 daily chart. Price stuck in trading range. Break below SPX2900 is bearish, break above SPX2935 is Bullish. MACD, A.I. on sell, but price rising 20d>50d>200d SMAs 4 P a g e
5 Potential negative divergences are becoming more evident on the S&P500s charts technical indicators (TIs), red dotted arrows, but nothing has been confirmed by price just yet. The solid red arrows show that such divergences can continue for quite some time, hence patience is required. Neither do the TIs give any sell signals. Hence, for now, the weekly chart continues to be 100% Bullish as price is still in the red uptrend channel, is above all weekly SMAs, which are rising and Bullishly stacked: price>20w>50w>100w>150w>200w. Thus, this chart tells us to expect higher prices over the intermediate-term. Figure 4. S&P500 weekly chart. Potential negative divergences more evident, but no sell-signals and price remains in a long-term uptrend and above all its rising SMAs. 5 P a g e
6 Just using weekly price only we can count waves often easier as there s less noise and it would look really good with a pullback from current levels and then a final advance to SPX3075ish for a v=i relationship to complete a picture-perfect Elliot wave channel (grey dotted lines) aligning with the black breakout line targeting SPX3060. Sometimes simple is best?! Figure 5. SPX weekly chart. Sometimes simple is best 6 P a g e
7 With the month of September in the books we can assess the monthly chart. Also here we see negative divergences, red dotted arrows, as on the weekly charts, as well as on all other indices (only S&P500 shown), with waning momentum and decreasing money flow. The MFI14 peaked in December 2017 and history shows that when it peaks the market made a significant top 3 out of 4 times (red vertical lines). But, price has yet to confirm a turn lower, and as we can see (solid red arrows), negative divergences can continue for a long time. For now, the monthly A.I. and MACD remain on a buy. Thus, there are certainly negatives creeping into the chart, which should give one pause and concern, but as said price has yet to confirm any of these divergences. Figure 6. SPX monthly chart Negative divergences setting up, but these can last for a long time, while there are no sell signals yet and price has yet to confirm a down turn. 7 P a g e
8 Market breadth, Sentiment and Volatility The SPXMO (McClellan Oscillator -MO- for the S&P500) ended the week at -28, down 39p compared to last week. Each index MO ended the week lower, which means this week s higher close for the NAS and NDX were not confirmed (made on decreasing market breadth: less stocks participating). Therefore, the Summation Indices (SIs, cumulative MOs) ended the week mixed: several on sell, one on buy. Still note a very Bullish picture from a market breadth perspective. When we assess the weekly TICK readings (Friday closing levels) we see decline readings since 2017 and there have been no closes above 300 for the entire last quarter, which is very rare (red boxes) and often indicative of an impending top, unless erased by a strong blast off in breadth. Lastly, I want to add that there s now been a string of 10 Hindenberg Omen s over the last 30 trading days: see here. Not every signal leads to a crash, far from it, but these 10 readings ties to the largest cluster ever (January 2018). As said in the article The warning gets extra emphasis from the small divergence between the major averages making a higher high in September while the NYSE Advance- Decline Line has made a divergent lower high. [Which I ve shown to you in my updates] That divergence can be rehabilitated if the breadth data suddenly start getting stronger, but for now the dual message of trouble is worthy of our concern. Figure 7. A) SPXSI: on a sell. B) Weekly TICK has been declining and dismally low the last quarter A B 8 P a g e
9 AAII Sentiment (what I perceive as an intermediate-term indicator) saw Bullishness rise 4% to 36% over the past week, while pessimism declined 1% to 31% and neutral dropped 3% to 33%. Nothing out of the ordinary. All normal readings. The Fear & Greed Index ended at 47 last week, down 28p compared to last week (on a scale from 0 to 100: neutral). Thus, the sentiment readings are normal. No excessiveness. We can assess shorter-term Bullishness and Bearishness by checking the put/call ratios. Last week the CPCE (equity put/call ratio) ended at 0.64, up 7p compared to last week. Thus, traders are neutral short term too. The VIX closed lower at $12.1 on Friday, which is 3.8% above last week s close. It is thus still above that important $12 support. A few weeks ago I showed the weekly VIX chart has tightening Bollinger Bands (BB): below 35. I didn t show the chart back, then but wanted to share it with you now as the BB-width has remained below 35 for some time now. If we add a VIX <15 value as an additional filter -because that s what we have currently- we can see there were only four such prior setups (BB-width <25 & VIX <15) since the 2009 low. One occasion was seven weeks before the August 2015 crash, one occasion was three weeks before this year s January correction, while two occasions (May 2013 and March 2017) led to smaller corrections before the Bull trend continued. Hence, the current VIX setup continues to fit with my preferred view of a pending (larger) correction. Figure 8. Weekly VIX: Tight Bollinger Bands for several weeks now suggests of a pending correction. 9 P a g e
10 Simple Moving Averages Charts The Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) can be used for trend-following and the short-term chart is now 95%. No surprise given the price action over the last five days. The long-term chart continues to improve and is now 97% Bullish. Figure 9. A) Short term Simple Moving Averages: 95% Bullish. B) Long Term Simple Moving Averages: 97% Bullish. A Copyright Intelligent Investing, LLC. May not be copied and/or distributed without permission. B Copyright Intelligent Investing, LLC. May not be copied and/or distributed without permission P a g e
11 How to trade this: Aggressive investors were stopped out at SPX2912. One can try for a short to SPX2886 on a close below SPX2900 or a long to SPX2975 on a close above SPX2935. Longer-term investors are long since April 4 and should still be long and continue to have stops on a close below the 200d SMA. However, given current developments as laid out in this update one may decide to re-assess once positions. STD-SPY-Performance = ~14% Table 1. Buy/Sell Signals based on Summation Indices Table 2. Buy/Sell Signals based on my Mechanical System for SPY/SH only. 11 P a g e
12 Trading Performance Update with Hedge Fund North Post Partners, LP NPP provides neither a boom, nor a bust. Just consistency. The last few weeks we experienced tremendous gains as we cashed in on most if not all our positions! We are now at 14.9% YTD, handily beating the S&P, RUT and close to outperforming the NASDAQ as well. Proper money management right there for our clients, as we are now almost 100% in cash; awaiting the market s next larger move! NPP, LP s To Date performance to date since we went public/live on January 2, 2017 compared to several major indices. Insert shows YTD (2018) performance. If you want to join our winning team, please contact me or NPP s President, Rus Chao, directly (rustinchao@gmail.com) for more information. We do the hard work, i.e. trading for you, and you get to reap the rewards! Please follow NPP on (all intra-day trades are provided there in real time) Please bookmark NPP s website: (weekly digest/trading plans are posted there) *It should not be assumed that future performance will always be guaranteed and/or profitable. Nor will future performance necessarily equal past performance or past performance trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of NPP. Joining NPP is free, but does not exclude commission costs, and other possible charges. 12 P a g e
13 Trading Performance Private Twitter Feed: Please Join Me & Sign Up Here. My private twitter feed now tweets ALL my trades, from AAPL to Z; from GDX to USO; from DIA to UPRO. I am still working on including those in my new P&L, but we should be at around 35% TD (Since June 1, 2018) So how does it work!? I tweet in real-time when I buy or sell my positions and you can simply follow my lead*. It doesn t get simpler than that! Results (% gains and losses) are calculated assuming each trade is of equal sized position. However, position sizes may differ in reality. Results are for Intelligent Investing, LCC s -the providertrades only. Subscriber results may vary due to different time of entry and exit as provider s trades are tweeted shortly (up to two minutes) after they ve been made. Subscriber takes full responsibility for his/her own trades and assumes no liability towards the provider regarding possible losses as provider s system is not perfect and no system can guarantee only winning trades. 2018, Intelligent Investing, LLC. This copyrighted weekly periodical is published on non-stock market trading weekend days by Intelligent Investing, LLC, and is intended solely for use by designated recipients. No reproduction, retransmission, or other use of the information or images is authorized. Legitimate news media may quote representative passages, in context and with full attribution, for the purpose of reporting on my opinions. Analysis is derived from data believed to be accurate, but such accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that such analysis, past or future, will be profitable or will equal past performance or guarantee future performance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. Inclusion of information about managed accounts, program positions and other information is not intended as any type of recommendation, nor solicitation. For more information, contact intelligent investing at intelligent_investing@yahoo.com. I reserve the right to refuse service to anyone for any reason. 13 P a g e
2 P a g e. Elliot Wave Updates
Summary Last week I concluded Short term there s a possibility to revisit SPX2700-2730 first before moving below SPX2600, but the most likely scenario is a direct move lower with an ultimate target of
More information1 P a g e. Summary. Aloha, Dr. Arnout, aka Soul, ter Schure
Summary Two weeks ago I was already looking for Ideal lows are in the S&P2670-2600, NASDAQ $7000-6800 and RUT $1460-2480 zones., and last week I determined that Although the ideal c=a target for the S&P500
More information1 P a g e. Summary. However, a move over SPX2817 from current levels will mean we re still dealing with a larger, more complex bounce to SPX
Summary Last week I provided some additional information from John Murphy and about typical end-of-bull sector rotation as added weight of evidence for a larger correction being underway. This week the
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Last week I was looking for SPX2455-2475 and the S&P500 gave us SPX2454 on Monday and then started to pullback and consolidate causing for many pundits to already start top calling. Close
More information1 P a g e. Summary. For now, I am looking for a major-a low at
Summary As all most all my forecasted upside (retrace) and downside (Extension) price targets have been reached over the last 3-4 weeks I then always try to be extra careful, cautious and objective in
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary We can keep the executive summary very simple, and repeat what we said last week: A break below SPX2405 is now needed to put the Bull-count in jeopardy. Until then we have to look up,
More informationTrading Performance Update with Hedge Fund North Post Partners, LP
Summary In last week s digest I was looking for more upside after the NFP-rally. We got to SPX2802 and that was all she wrote this week. Then the markets went into 3-4 day long declines almost entirely
More informationIntermediate-a? SPX2533
Summary Based on the prior week s price action, I found in last week s digest uncertainty has increased once again on where the market exactly is from and EWT-count perspective. The standard impulse (preferred),
More informationIntermediate-a? SPX2533
Summary All the charts are now improving due to Friday s strong close, bringing the S&P back above its 20d and 50d SMA and giving renewed buy signals on the daily and weekly time frame on several TIs.
More informationIntermediate-a? SPX2533
Summary Like last week, also this week s Friday-price action left a lot to be desired for the Bulls and ambiguity regarding which exact Elliot Wave price pattern remains: major-4 still underway? Major-4
More informationIn addition, a word of advice: when in a Bear market and my Elliot Wave Count suggests either down or a few more subdivisions marginally higher
WOW, who would have known?! Price went from my upper target zone to my lower (see page 2) in just 11 trading hours: The S&P500 lost ~10p/hour Crazy. Big gap ups one day, followed by a 100p drop the next
More informationFigure 1. SPX daily chart: Larger leading- or ending diagonal, with wave-4 of the diagonal now SPX2675ish now underway
This correction is full of surprises, twists, turns, sharp drops and rallies. That s why corrections are so hard to forecast compared to an impulse. Thus, with the market not complying too much, other
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Our standard sub division (SSD) Elliot Wave count for the S&P500 continues to track the market well, and we ll keep it as is until the market will tell us different. We continue to expect
More informationFigure 1. SPX 1-min chart. NAS 1-min chart.
In the weekend update I summarized my findings as Short-term the market should be close to completing intermediate-a, though based on a simple Bollinger Band Study, SPX2820 may well be reached first, which
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary After having reached SPX2484, 1p short of my ideal SPX24585-2505 target zone, on July 27 and selling off intra-day the S&P500 hasn t made a higher high and has remained flat the past
More information2 P a g e. Elliot Wave Updates
Summary In last week s update I concluded The S&P500 closed at SPX2532 and therefore suggests major-b is underway. Majora simple formed an unorthodox oversold bottom, I now prefer to see this rally as
More informationBecause the AD line made a new ATH, there s simple too much underlying strength to suggest a large third- or c-wave lower is just around the corner
The short term count remains a bit messy over the past three days, so we ll just look at trendlines instead: see Figure- 1. Hence, please don t focus on the wave labeling as the 2 nd SPX2699 low may have
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Last week we expected a bottom within 2-3 days, we were unfortunately wrong, as instead the market turned into a confused- frog blender swirling around our Fib-based, and the Bradley
More informationSummary Merry Christmass,
Summary For weeks I ve been looking for the indices to reach ideally SPX2500-2475, NAS6395-6295 and NDX6080 +/- 10, DJIA $23,200 +/-100 and RUT $1355-1310. as at these levels the minute, minor and intermediate-waves
More informationMicro-4 SPX2544. Minute-iv SPX2557. You are here. Major-4 SPX P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Although 5 waves up off the SPX2557 low can be counted, because of the -what in my book counts best as- 3 wave structures both up and down since that mid-november low, the ending diagonal
More informationMajor-3. Minute-iii. Micro-3. Minute-iv. Micro-4. You are here. Major-4. 1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary In last weekend s update the preferred view was changed to the Bullish count, and it has so far been the correct choice. Counts, i.e. possibilities (since markets are non-linear!), are
More informationFigure 1. SPX 60 min & NAS 1-min chart.
BINGO!? Today we reached the ideal SPX2625 target to the T (SPX2625.76) for wave-a. There s now negative divergence again on the hourly RSI5 and the hourly MACD (see Fig 1), while the daily indicators
More informationc=a Figure 1. SPX 60 min & NAS 1-min chart.
Today s drop came as expected and the S&P moved as low as SPX2562, but as said yesterday A move below today s low SPX2569 will be a first sign intermediate-b is underway, with confirmation below SPX2545.
More informationiii Figure 1. SPX 60-min chart.
Today the S&P500 (not the DJIA, NAS and NDX) made a marginally lower low below yesterday s low (SPX2527 vs SPX2529), which forced me to re-assess the short-term Elliott-wave count I have for this move
More information1 P a g e. Table 1. Ideal wave tracker table for nano and micro-waves of minute-v
Yesterday I concluded We may get some profit taking over the Holiday; but it should only be corrective (small 4 th waves). And today certainly looked like that with only a 5p range on the S&P. Hence the
More informationIntelligent Investing, LLC Major Indices Daily Update 02/26/ 19
Elliot Wave Updates Yesterday I found a move below last Friday s high (SPX2794.20) will be a first sign of lower prices as then the decline can t be a 4 th wave because 4 th and 1 st waves can t overlap
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary My call two weeks ago to revoke the major-3 top for the S&P500 based on OEW downtrend confirmations on several indices including the S&P500. was the correct thing today as I was then
More informationIntelligent Investing, LLC Major Indices Daily Update 03/06/ 19
Elliot Wave Updates It is still technically possible for the S&P500 to be in minor-4, as it is becoming possible more complex, but since the RUT is IMHO already in a confirmed major-2/b down wave, see
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary In last week s update I set a first target of SPX2428 for the S&P500, which was reached on Thursday. I expected from there a 10-15p correction, but instead the market decided to target
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary On Thursday, I proclaimed a major-3 top for the S&P500 based on OEW downtrend confirmations on several indices including the S&P500. Today I am terrible sorry to announce that I am not
More informationSummary b/2 b/2 Aloha,
Summary As we ve been navigating this Bear market s twists and turns rather successfully over the last few weeks, we can hopefully continue this winning streak. Short-term, Friday s price action left a
More informationTech is weakest and has already moved below its SPX2604 low. Hence it is logical to assume the S&P will follow suit soon.
Yesterday I concluded If my count is correct than minute-i of minor-c/1 is soon complete and we should see a short and brief minute-ii bounce before iii of c/3 gets going. Little did I know that today
More informationWe have 3 timing/cycles (our Fib-timed trading intervals, Bradley Turn dates, and Gann dates) pointing to a turn around mid-march.
Executive Summary The market reached the lower end of our preferred SPX2350-2370 target zone, without breaking below SPX2352, the past week, and then reversed with a 22p rally off the SPX2354.54 low made
More informationALOHA. Arnout aka Soul, Ph.D. 5 P a g e
I continue to use the wave-i, ii count as my preferred count until proven otherwise. Why? 1) Price bottomed last week right in the preferred target zone for wave-ii. No need to overthink that. 2) The entire
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Price finally reached our expect SPX2112-2120 and the negative divergences that started to creep in on the daily TIs finally also took their toll over the past 2 days. The weekly charts
More informationSummary III III Aloha,
Summary In last week s update I mentioned A break below SPX2875 would be worrysome for the Bull case and morph things into something else. Well, that is what happened the past week and this week s update
More informationMinute-iv SPX2550 +/- 5
Executive Summary Over the past weeks I reiterated smaller corrections can still be viewed as buying opportunities for short-term traders. So far so good, as the S&P dropped to SPX2544 and the NASDAQ to
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary For three weeks we provided a primary (major b) and alternative count (primary V) up and we keep tracking both until one or the other is disproven. Two weeks ago we projected a major
More informationIntelligent Investing, LLC Major Indices Daily Update 02/28/ 19
Elliot Wave Updates Today the S&P500 was stuck in a less than 6p range. So there s really not much we can learn. All parameters remain the same a step 2: A move below SPX2764.55 (last Thursday s low) will
More informationSPX for the smaller major-4 triangle or SPX to complete the double zigzag. Figure 1.
Today s break -finally- below SPX2625 (and SPX2613) places the Ball now firmly in the Bears camp, albeit today s strong rally off the lows. And the two main bear counts remain the focus for now: SPX2579-2568
More informationb/ii c/iii b/ii b/ii Figure 1. SPX 60-min chart. NAS 1-min chart.
On Monday I concluded Above SPX2690 opens the door for major-a having completed and major-b to SPX2800s is underway. Yesterday I then found that the recent SPX2631 low is an unusual point for a bottom
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Over the past week we re-introduced some alternative counts, all of which bullish and some simple more bullish than others. The market keeps tracking them well; and we still can t eliminate
More informationWe find good Fib-extension overlap at that level between the major and minor wave degrees suggesting it should work as a magnet for price.
Executive Summary Last week we forecasted an ideal minute iii top at SPX2174-2188, followed by a drop to SPX2250-2235 (likely the high end of the range) for minute iv before the market continues to melt
More informationFigure 1. SPX 60-min chart. Ending diagonal triangle forming, a set of nested 1,2 waves; or simple 3 waves down off SPX2800 to complete major-a?
In the weekend update I was looking for lower prices, and lower we got, but price did also close higher, i.e. above Fridays close. Another Bullish reversal candle? We ve seen plenty of these one-hit-wonders
More informationAdding longs in the SPX zone will be well-rewarded longer term we believe.
Executive Summary Last week we found, based on our analyses of the charts: Our SPX2146-2069 target zone remains and can now be narrowed down to SPX2117-2069, as the S&P500 closed at SPX2128 yesterday,
More informationALOHA. Soul, Ph.D. 5 P a g e
Another day and another ATH for the S&P, DJIA, NYA but still not for the NDX, NAS and RUT. Thus wave-e of minutev is still underway to SPX2675-2725, with an ideal target zone of SPX2680-90. There was a
More informationSymmetry target: 24000
Flat/consolidation day for the S&P and NAS, whereas the DJIA continued its relentless Bull run. Since the low made in February 2016 (22 months ago) the DJIA has gained 8000 points, of which the last 3100
More informationFigure 1. S&P 60-min chart. Ideally intermediate-a bottomed at SPX2593, then b to SPX2808 and c down to 2529
On Friday and Monday, 89% of NYSE stocks declined. Two back-to-back 89% down days are generally indicative of selling exhaustion, and on que 72% of NYSE stocks advanced today (ref: ISPYETF). This fits
More informationIn the weekend update I presented 3 different counts for the S&P in order of probability
In the weekend update I presented 3 different counts for the S&P in order of probability 1) micro-1 ongoing with nano-iv at SPX2578 and nano-v to SPX2595 underway (60%). 2) Micro-2 topped at SPX2590, micro-c
More informationFigure 1. Frost and Prechter
Clearly it is a Bull till it isn t and I ve been re-iterating this -albeit Elliot Wave Theory-wise things started to look complete- every update (Just read the conclusion of last Thursday s daily update
More informationThe S&P500 is still allowed to tag SPX and then roll over, as it would fit with a c=a relationship on the COMPQ to $6226.
Yesterday I showed the different possibilities the market has, and since there s not been a >10p move to the opposite direction since the SPX2446.55 low and SPX 2469.64 higher were struck (today s decline
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Last week I showed the big-picture EW/OEW count and overview of the NASDAQ, which aligned well with where many big-tech companies are in there respective wave-counts: I found Cylce-1
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Based on this week s deduction of observable facts, we continue to favor the major a at SPX 1867, major b at SPX 2021 and major c down to SPX 1830-1850ies around October 9-12. How exactly
More information1 P a g e. Figure 1. NAS daily chart and S&P hourly chart: minute-v of minor-3 and micro-5 of minute-iv; respectively underway.
With TWTR up 18.5% today 1 and now AMZN, GOOGL and MSFT up 7.9%, 3.8%, and 3.8% after hours on earnings; respectively the QQQ (ETF that tracks the NASDAQ) is up 1% after hours too. Thus, the ideal standard
More informationFigure 1. NAS 1-min and SPX 60 min charts.
Today s update will be brief as price on most indices has now reached their upside targets for the anticipated intermediate wave-a. The NASDAQ has reached the upper end of its first resistance zone. If
More informationResistance remains in the SPX S/R zone, with a break out targeting 2170s.
Executive Summary With a flat week, it appears a one pager would be sufficient to summarize what has happened. However, we believe that would get us off too easy and we still would like to provide a full
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Last week s call for continued upside was correct as the market delivered a new ATH and again a new weekly closing high. The third week in a row (!). So yes, the trend is clearly up,
More informationLast Gasp in the Dollar. Market Update May 18, Seattle Technical Advisors
SeattleTA provides investment managers with technical analysis of the equity, fixed-income, commodity, and currency markets. While equities are expected to take a hit this week, the big news is expected
More informationMarket Update March 9, 2015
SeattleTA provides investment managers with technical analysis of the equity, fixed-income, Stocks dropped and interest rates popped on Fridays payroll report as traders priced in a likely Fed rate hike
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 25, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 25, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More informationLast Hurrah for the Dollar. Market Update June 15, Seattle Technical Advisors
SeattleTA provides investment managers with technical analysis of the equity, fixed-income, commodity, and currency markets. This week should see the start of the final push upward by the US Dollar prior
More informationFukushima Daisies. Market Update July 27, Seattle Technical Advisors
SeattleTA provides investment managers with technical analysis of the equity, fixed-income, The evidence is all around us that the bull has gone to the slaughterhouse. Like daisies discovered in Fukushima,
More informationMarket Update April 20, 2015
SeattleTA provides investment managers with technical analysis of the equity, fixed-income, commodity, and The forecast for a high on April 15 was spot-on (there s no kill switch on awesome!). The monthly
More informationINTERMEDIATE EDUCATION GUIDE
INTERMEDIATE EDUCATION GUIDE CONTENTS Key Chart Patterns That Every Trader Needs To Know Continution Patterns Reversal Patterns Statistical Indicators Support And Resistance Fibonacci Retracement Moving
More informationS&P 500 Update: Week ending May 11th 2018
S&P 500 Update: Week ending May 11th 2018 1. Market Recap: The S&P 500 closed higher by 2.2% for week and broke out of some key resistance areas and a short term downtrend. There are 4 topics now setting
More informationBad Breadth. Market Update August 17, Seattle Technical Advisors
SeattleTA provides investment managers with This week is options expiration week and mid-august is often better for equities than earlier or later in the month. Stock Traders Almanac reports that for the
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. May 18, Daily Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on May 18, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Neutral Low Positive Low Transports Positive
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. April 10, 2018
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on April 10, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Negative High Transports
More informationTechnical Analysis and Charting Part II Having an education is one thing, being educated is another.
Chapter 7 Technical Analysis and Charting Part II Having an education is one thing, being educated is another. Technical analysis is a very broad topic in trading. There are many methods, indicators, and
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 18, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 18, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. March 29, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on March 29, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Negative High Transports
More informationCounter Trend Trades. (Trading Against The Trend) By Russ Horn
Counter Trend Trades (Trading Against The Trend) By Russ Horn 1 RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT / DISCLAIMER AGREEMENT Trading any financial market involves risk. This report and all and any of its contents
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. November 23, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on November 23, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. December 21, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on December 21, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. February 5, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on February 5, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. November 16, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on November 16, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative Low Negative High Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. April 2, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on April 2, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. October 26, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on October 26, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports
More informationS&P Cash Long Term: Uptrend Intact. Monthly Log Chart
Andy Dodd MSTA - +44 020 7031 4651 adodd@louiscapital.com Twitter : @louiscaptech S&P Cash Long Term: Uptrend Intact Despite an initial slowdown in momentum following the break above 2120 in July, which
More informationDivergence and Momentum Trading
presented by Thomas Wood MicroQuant SM Divergence Trading Workshop Day One Divergence and Momentum Trading Risk Disclaimer Trading or investing carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary August 18, 2015 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch US equities had two opportunities to kick off a rally this week. Neither had much follow through. On Monday, positive breadth was
More informationSubmerging Markets. Market Update August 3, Seattle Technical Advisors
SeattleTA provides investment managers with technical analysis of the equity, fixed-income, commodity, and currency markets. A cycle low is expected in emerging markets this week and is confirmed by a
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 22, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 22, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Neutral High Positive Low Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. November 20, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on November 20, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 4, Daily Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 4, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Positive Low Transports
More informationCompiled by Timon Rossolimos
Compiled by Timon Rossolimos - 2 - The Seven Best Forex Indicators -All yours! Dear new Forex trader, Everything we do in life, we do for a reason. Why have you taken time out of your day to read this
More informationNorthPost Partners, LP
We are a small hedge fund. We re not here to sell you the impossible dream of incredible gains and lavish riches. We re here to make you a steady income for the rest of your life. No boom. No bust. Just
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. December 20, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on December 20, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary October 12, 2014 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch SPX has gone 686 days without touching its 200-dma. This is the longest stretch in history. On Friday, after a 3% fall during the
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 29, Daily CTI. Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 29, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Neutral Low Positive Low Transports
More informationDéjà vu all over again. Market Update July 20, Seattle Technical Advisors
SeattleTA provides investment managers with technical analysis of the equity, fixed-income, commodity, and currency markets. Last week the NASDAQ printed a new record high and SPX isn t far behind. The
More informationEquities: Weekly Technical Overview 2nd October 2016
Andy Dodd MSTA - +44 020 7031 4651 adodd@louiscapital.com Twitter : @louiscaptech Equities: Weekly Technical Overview 2nd October 2016 Equity Index Technical Dashboard The table below is intended as an
More informationLara s Weekly. S&P500 + GOLD + USOIL Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis. Lara Iriarte CMT 23 February, 2018
Lara s Weekly S&P500 + GOLD + USOIL Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis Lara Iriarte CMT 23 February, 2018 S&P 500 Contents S&P 500 GOLD USOIL About Disclaimer 3 18 36 48 48 S&P 500 S&P 500 Upwards movement
More information13 April US Equity Indices: the land of the bearish rising wedge. Walter Zimmermann United ICAP. US Equity Indices 13 Apr
- 1-13 April 2015 : the land of the bearish rising wedge Walter Zimmermann United ICAP The market commentary contained in this document represents the opinions of the author. Such opinions are subject
More informationCycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. February 9, Daily Swing
Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on February 9, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports
More informationWilliams Percent Range
Williams Percent Range (Williams %R or %R) By Marcille Grapa www.surefiretradingchallenge.com RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT / DISCLAIMER AGREEMENT Trading any financial market involves risk. This report and
More informationSXXP and SX5E nearing their downtrends. Gold remains a short in line with the trend. Dollar index at key support. EURUSD bearish candle
Andy Dodd MSTA - +44 020 7031 4651 adodd@louiscapital.com Twitter : @louiscaptech SXXP and SX5E nearing their downtrends. Gold remains a short in line with the trend Dollar index at key support EURUSD
More informationTechnical Analysis. Weekly Comment. Global. SPX Overbought Relief Rally in Europe!! Equities Sales Trading Commentary
h Technical Analysis Equities Sales Trading Commentary Weekly Comment Global Michael Riesner Marc Müller 03/07/2012 michael.riesner@ubs.com marc.mueller@ubs.com +41-44-239 1676 +41-44-239 1789 SPX Overbought
More information6 TRADE SETUPS YOU CAN START USING RIGHT NOW. includes: Ryan's top charting patterns
6 TRADE SETUPS YOU CAN START USING RIGHT NOW includes: Ryan's top charting patterns SharePlanner's Top Setups for TRADING LONG & SHORT Far too often we clutter our trading strategy with hundreds of different
More informationMarket Observations as of Nov 17, 2017
Market Observations as of Nov 17, 2017 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. This week we saw a variety of market moves. The daily charts for
More information