1 P a g e. Executive Summary

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Baldwin Owens
5 years ago
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1 Executive Summary On Thursday, I proclaimed a major-3 top for the S&P500 based on OEW downtrend confirmations on several indices including the S&P500. Today I am terrible sorry to announce that I am not entirely sure this is the case. Trust me it cost me a sleepless night to come to this conclusion, but the TECH sector holds the answer to have we topped or one more leg up?. Namely, as you know since last week the intermediate-iii top was confirmed and intermediate-iv has been underway since. I ll take a detailed look at the NDX, since it counts so beautifully well, to see if intermediate-iv has already bottomed (at the 23.6% retrace of intermediate-iii; and with a c=a Fib-extension) or if it is still underway seeking the 38.2% retrace eventually (after a larger bounce). In the former case, the S&P500 will reach the ideal Fib-extension based target of SPX for minor-5 of intermediate-v of major-3; in the latter case, the S&P500 will reach SPX2345ish first for intermediate-a of major-4. Again, I hate to flipflop, and I can fully understand it can aggravate you, but I must approach this market as objective as I can and given where TECH currently is some things are telling me to not just bet the house on more downside; we must ALWAYS KEEP OUR OPTIONS OPEN. It s the only way to long term consistent profitability. Let bias not cloud judgement. The market will otherwise have us for breakfast, lunch and dinner. I don t claim my analyses/methods are better than others, as the market will soon teach those who do so otherwise. I don t claim to be always right, but I claim to be as accurate as I possibly can be, which will help you to stay on the right side of the market as much as possible. That said, the long-term charts remain 100% Bullish and on Friday my 3-legged Breadth-VIX-Price buy indicator gave 2 completed buy signals (Breadth and Price) and 1 partial completed (VIX). The last time this happened was mid-may (minor-2 of Intermediate-v low) and Mid-April (Intermediate-iv low). In addition, TECH gave two almost ideal A.I. buy signals. But, for now the Summation Index remains on a sell. For the S&P500 a >35p rally off Friday s low (>SPX2449) will confirm minor-5 is underway. A break below SPX2405 means intermediate-a is underway to ideally around SPX2385 (+/- 5p) 1 P a g e

Trading Performance Update with North Post Partners, LLC NPP provides neither a boom, nor a bust. Just consistency. A quiet, but successful week for us.

2 Trading Performance Update with North Post Partners, LLC NPP provides neither a boom, nor a bust. Just consistency. A quiet, but successful week for us. Back up to almost 17% YTD due to cashing in our banks and SBUX. Due to the 4 th of July Holiday and NFP on Friday we didn t trade much as a good system tells you when not to trade! Yes, knowing when not to trade is more important than knowing when to trade. We have a lot of great setups for the coming week and expect to be at new profit highs soon. Profits were distributed to our clients this week for Q2 More to come Please contact me or Rus Chao directly (rustinchao@gmail.com) for more information. Joining NPP is absolutely free, and we charge no service or maintenance fees. Please follow NPP on (all intra-day trades are provided there in real time) Please bookmark NPP s website: (weekly digest/trading plans are posted there) *It should not be assumed that future performance will always be guaranteed and/or profitable. Nor will future performance necessarily equal past performance or past performance trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of NPP. Joining NPP is free, but does not exclude commission costs, and other possible charges. 2 P a g e

3 Elliot wave updates Today s update will be different as I ll show the NDX two possible counts and how each can affect the S&P500. First up: intermediate-iv of major-3 of Primary-V (note applying OEW s rules strictly and unbiased it follows that TECH is in Primary-V off TECH s low made in Why? Because TECH didn t make a lower low in 2009, while the S&P500 did: see here.) The NDX reached the 23.6% retrace off intermediate-iii over the past few days as well as the ideal c=a extension (shortest green arrow); while setting up positive divergence on the daily RSI5 (blue arrow). See Figure 1. Since 4 th waves bottom between the % retrace, intermediate-iv can be complete especially since we have a c=a relationship that came within 5p ($5580 NDX low vs $5575 c=a). In addition, there s a non-ideal A.I. buy signal, which came very close to being ideal. Regardless, the Technical Indicators (RSI, A.I., MACD) are starting to point back up from OS levels that over the past coincided with important lows (blue dotted horizontal lines). A close over the 50d and 20d SMA, followed by a close over the possible minor-b high ($5830) will signal intermediate-v to the ideal 2.000x extension ($6104) is underway. Currently all ingredients are in place for this to happen. Figure 1. NDX daily TI chart. Did intermediate-iv bottom? 3 P a g e

If intermediate-v of major-3 is underway for the NDX (and NASDAQ) then the tech-heavy S&P500 will most likely follow suit and set sight for the ideal major-3 target zone of SPX2480-2500 for all of

4 If intermediate-v of major-3 is underway for the NDX (and NASDAQ) then the tech-heavy S&P500 will most likely follow suit and set sight for the ideal major-3 target zone of SPX for all of minor-5 of intermediate-v of major-3 and thus align the indices. Note the picture green Elliot Wave Channel. <SPX2404 and this count is dead. >SPX2449 and this count is confirmed. Figure 2 A, B: Minor-5 underway!? Daily chart shows EWT channel. Hourly chart shows micro-count. 4 P a g e

5 The alternative is that intermediate-iv is becoming more complex on the NDX, NASDAQ, and that only minor-a bottomed. It means minor-b is now underway to likely around $5750 (resistance) from which minor-c to the 38.2% retrace level will start. It s too early to tell this is the case. But as said before, 4 th waves retrace between %. AND if the a-wave targets the 23.6% retrace, then the c-wave targets often the 38.2%. A bounce can now be expected due to the TI setup (minor-b) and minor-c should then kick in with a confirmation below this week s low. Figure 3. NDX daily TI chart. Intermediate-vi still underway and becoming more complex. Bounce now underway. 5 P a g e

With the alternate NDX count the major-3 top remains in place and we should also see the S&P500 bounce (to 20d SMA!?) before heading lower. The hourly chart (Fig.

6 With the alternate NDX count the major-3 top remains in place and we should also see the S&P500 bounce (to 20d SMA!?) before heading lower. The hourly chart (Fig. 4B) shows price is still in the blue short-term downtrend channel, and the daily chart shows -contrary to TECH- no A.I. buy signal (Fig 4A). Thus, this count remains valid, until a break out of that channel and renewed buy-signals. Figure 4 A, B. Intermediate-a of major-4 still underway. 6 P a g e

Market breadth & Simple Moving Averages Charts The SPXSI (Summation Index for the S&P500, derived from the McClellan Oscillator for S&P500 (SPXMO)) continues to be on a sell-signal as market breadth

7 Market breadth & Simple Moving Averages Charts The SPXSI (Summation Index for the S&P500, derived from the McClellan Oscillator for S&P500 (SPXMO)) continues to be on a sell-signal as market breadth remains negative (Fig. 5A). Thus, regardless of the possibility of new highs, being profit-protective is and was the right strategy. One of the other buy indicators I track is the 3-legged Breadth-VIX- Price indicator (see Figure 5 B). Of these the NYMO and SPX gave a buy (both closed back inside their lower Bollinger Band). The VIX is now in step 2 of a 3-step setup. Thus, this buy indicator is 89% complete (2.67 out of 3). The last two times this indicator came that close was mid-may (minor-2 low) and mid-april (intermediate-iv low). Hence, this is an additional reason to suggest an important low is in the making; and why I also brought up the two counts on the NDX: forewarned is forearmed. Figure 5. A) SPXSI remains on a sell. B) The Breadth-VIX-Price Indicator gave an 89% buy signal on Friday. A B 7 P a g e

The long-term Simple Moving Averages only chart (LT-SMA, for trend followers and long-term traders) continues to be 100% bullish: the past 6 sideways weeks haven t done anything to it.

Our short-term chart (ST-SMA, for short term to swing traders) remained ~50% bullish this week. Hence, the short-term chart is suggesting price has stalled. Figure 6.

8 The long-term Simple Moving Averages only chart (LT-SMA, for trend followers and long-term traders) continues to be 100% bullish: the past 6 sideways weeks haven t done anything to it. It s telling long-term traders to stay long and strong. As such this chart also continues to support our overall view of the market and where it will head over the next several months: higher. Our short-term chart (ST-SMA, for short term to swing traders) remained ~50% bullish this week. Hence, the short-term chart is suggesting price has stalled. Figure 6. A: LT-SMA chart 100% bullish B: ST-SMA chart ~50% Bullish. A Copyright Intelligent Investing. May not be distributed without permission. B Copyright Intelligent Investing. May not be distributed without permission. 8 P a g e

Fib-based Trading Interval Turn dates & Remaining Bradley Turn Dates for 2017 The strong June 30 and July 4 th are Bradley turn dates came and went; and may have been lows instead of highs.

9 Fib-based Trading Interval Turn dates & Remaining Bradley Turn Dates for 2017 The strong June 30 and July 4 th are Bradley turn dates came and went; and may have been lows instead of highs. I wanted to draw your attention also to the August 19 turn date, whi ch fits reasonable well with two larger time-frame cycles I follow; shown by the yellow and black time-fibs. These two coincide early August! Hence, early to mid-august will most likely be important turning points for the market. July 4 (100/100 Middle Terms Power) August 19 (17/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) September 5 (17/100 Declinations Power) September 7 (29/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) October 7 (48/100 Middle Terms Power) December 3 (23/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) December 6 (100/100 Long Terms Power) ALOHA Soul, Ph.D. 2017, Intelligent Investing, LLC. This copyrighted weekly periodical is published on non-stock market trading weekend days by Intelligent Investing, LLC, and is intended solely for use by designated recipients. No reproduction, retransmission, or other use of the information or images is authorized. Legitimate news media may quote representative passages, in context and with full attribution, for the purpose of reporting on our opinions. Analysis is derived from data believed to be accurate, but such accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that such analysis, past or future, will be profitable or will equal past performance or guarantee future performance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. Inclusion of information about managed accounts, program positions and other information is not intended as any type of recommendation, nor solicitation. For more information, contact intelligent investing at intelligent_investing@yahoo.com. We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone for any reason. 9 P a g e

1 P a g e. Executive Summary

1 P a g e. Executive Summary Executive Summary Last week I was looking for SPX2455-2475 and the S&P500 gave us SPX2454 on Monday and then started to pullback and consolidate causing for many pundits to already start top calling. Close