Major-3. Minute-iii. Micro-3. Minute-iv. Micro-4. You are here. Major-4. 1 P a g e. Executive Summary

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1 Executive Summary In last weekend s update the preferred view was changed to the Bullish count, and it has so far been the correct choice. Counts, i.e. possibilities (since markets are non-linear!), are eliminated based on logical deduction once price levels are breached to the upside or downside: probabilities of those counts are then 0. But, since this has been anything but a typical advance off the SPX2417 low, as micro-1 was larger than minute-i (normally it s the other way around: smaller degrees waves (micro) are often smaller than larger degree waves (minute)), also the current advance off the SPX2488 low has been anything but typical. It has continued to extend. Some call it a blow off top, others a melt up. Bottom line; buyers are rushing in, in fear of missing out especially since most fund managers (90%) continue to underperform the market (see here). But, not NorthPost Partners On Thursday price reached the 2 nd price target zone for a possible micro-3 top, but Friday gave only a 9p drop. That is too little to be certain micro-3 is in or not. In addition, the micro-waves suggest that at least one more wave up would be ideal to complete micro-3. Thus, a break above Thursday s high (SPX2553) will target SPX for the next logical micro-3 target zone. A break below Friday s low (SPX2543), but not exceeding 13p in total off the SPX2553 high (to SPX2540) can still be part of micro-3 to be followed by one more wave up to complete it. If price drops any lower we can safely say micro-3 topped at SPX2553 and micro-4 should then target SPX2530 +/-5. Micro-5 of all of minute-iii should then set sight to SPX2575+/-5. But, I find this last scenario much less likely for now. Once micro-4 and 5 complete we should see a longer and deeper correction for minute-iv and then minute-v will take price to ideally around SPX2600 +/-10p for major-3. My ideal time frame for this top is October 18/19 (+/- 3 days) For now, the trustworthy, bread-and-butter indicators: the long term and short term simple moving averages (LT, ST- SMAs) charts are 100% bullish and all the breadth-based buy/sell indicators remain on a buy as breadth remains positive. As long as price remains above SPX2509 the trend is up. For now, the easy move has been made, as the market is starting to wrap up its final set of 4 th and 5 th waves. Nonetheless, each of these smaller corrections can still be viewed as buying opportunities for short-term traders. Please see the wave plot below on where we most likely are. Major-3 Minute-iii Micro-3 Micro-4 Minute-iv You are here Major-4 1 P a g e

2 Trading Performance Update with North Post Partners, LLC NPP provides neither a boom, nor a bust. Just consistency. Slow and steady wins the race: up another ½ a percent point, which is pretty good considering we re only trading ¼ positions due to this being a 5 th of a 5 th wave; which is where we reduce our risk, despite the melt up and everybody else chasing (we all know how that ends ). It s been scientifically proven Please contact me or Rus Chao directly (rustinchao@gmail.com) for more information. Joining NPP is absolutely free, and we charge no service or maintenance fees. Please follow NPP on (all intra-day trades are provided there in real time) Please bookmark NPP s website: (weekly digest/trading plans are posted there) *It should not be assumed that future performance will always be guaranteed and/or profitable. Nor will future performance necessarily equal past performance or past performance trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of NPP. Joining NPP is free, but does not exclude commission costs, and other possible charges. 2 P a g e

3 Elliot Wave Updates As the market is now starting to wrap up its 3 rd wave, all that s left are the remaining 4 th and 5 th waves to unfold. After yesterday s ATH of SPX2553, price has so far dropped 9p; the 2 nd largest drop since the SPX2503 high. Since atto-ii was also 9p (2512->2503), one could argue the market just finished atto-iv at SPX2544 (9p). A move above SPX2553 from current levels will mean micro-3 is extending to SPX and atto-v is underway to ideally SPX2560 where v=i=16p ( ). A drop from current levels directly to SPX2540 (13p), but not any lower will shift the count to (pink) femto-3 at SPX2553 and femto-4 at that low. Any deeper (since femto-2 was 12p) will mean micro-4 to SPX2530 +/-5 is underway, but I find that possibility much less likely for now; as it simple counts much better with at least one more wave up. Figure 1. S&P 1 minute and 60-minute chart. Nano-v of micro 3 is extending. Same depth of pullbacks. Same wave degree!? With micro-3 most likely extending to the next target zone of SPX , as shown in Thursday s daily update (see insert Figure 1), then the micro-4 target zone can simple be moved up an additional 10-15p as well (SPX ). The market then still needs micro-5, minute-iv and minute-v to complete minor-5 of intermediate-v of major 3. The ideal target of SPX2560 +/- 10p for that remains. Hence, pullbacks will remain buying opportunities. 3 P a g e

4 The daily TI chart of the S&P continues to look strong despite Friday s small pullback. Price is above all SMAs (5d to 200d) and above all up trendlines. The TIs are pointing up, and all Friday did was take some of the extremely overbought conditions off the map. Now negative divergences need to start to setup in the charts (higher prices, but weakening momentum) to tell us the top aka major-3 is getting closer. Note that on Thursday price closed wellabove its upper Bollinger Band (BB) and dropped below it on Friday. Price on the weekly chart, not shown, also closed above its upper BB (now at SPX2530) and a close below it next week (micro-4? = red week) would not be surprising. Major bank earnings are due Thursday (JPM, C) and Friday (BAC, WFC) kicking off earnings season. Figure 3. S&P daily TI chart: micro-3 of minute-iii is still underway. 4 P a g e

5 Last week I showed the RUT would reach around $1498, which it did and like the rest of the market even decided to extend as it now came close to the 2.00x extension at $1520. I still expect this target to be reached as the market is wrapping up it s final 4 th and 5 th waves. Figure 4: RUT daily chart: extended 5 th wave underway. First target is the 1.618x extension at $ P a g e

6 Last week the NAS and NDX were less certain as the former could be counted as a 1, 2 setup, whereas the latter as an ending diagonal triangle (EDT). So far, this divergence remains as the NAS is now best counted as being in minor-3 of intermediate-v, see Figure-5 below, whereas the NDX is still sporting the EDT (see Figure 6 next page). We ll keep both counts for each index and if the NDX decides to join the NAS then we ll change it accordingly. For now, the next target for the NAS is $6615 +/-5, which is the 100% extension of minor-1, from 2. Figure 5: NASDAQ daily TI chart: subdividing intermediate-v possibility most likely. 6 P a g e

7 The NDX has so far only made marginal new ATHs yet, as the FAANGT stocks are still lagging (FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFXL, GOOGL, TSLA), with only NFLX making new ATHs and GOOGL getting close. Hence, the possible ending diagonal triangle (blue) outlined last week is still in play. Wave-e can do an overthrow, like wave-a, but a consistent move higher will have me change this index s count to that of the NAS as well. Figure 6: NDX daily TI chart: ending diagonal triangle forming? 7 P a g e

8 Market breadth & Simple Moving Averages Charts The SPXSI (Summation Index for the S&P500, derived from the McClellan Oscillator for S&P500 (SPXMO)) remains on a buy signal since early September as breadth readings remain positive and ended at +34 on Friday, down 20p from Thursday, but up 5p over last Friday and thus confirming this weeks higher close. Thus, we should expect higher prices going forward. The stocks in the S&P above their 50d and 200d SMA ended the week at +75 and+74; high enough to sustain the current rally. The NYMO ended at a paltry +3, but the INDU-MO and NDX-MO ended the week at +44 and +50, with the latter coming off an >60 reading; which means the current rally will have longer legs despite a few small (buyable dip) corrections. This fits with my preferred count of the market wrapping up micro-3, 4, 5 and minute-iv and v. Almost there. The CPCE (put/call ratio) ended at 0.70 on Friday, which is rather high for a 1-day dip and suggests we should see higher prices over the next 1-2 days. This aligns as well with the wrapping up of a bunch of 4 th and 5 th waves. Figure 7. SPXSI and all other SIs remain on buy as breadth remains strong. 8 P a g e

9 Both the long term and short-term simple moving averages charts are 100% Bullish. The former has been 100% Bullish since late-september last year. For trend followers among us, you know what this means: higher prices can be expected going forward. I ve added the pivot points to the LT-SMA chart as it helps show where price is in relation to these SMAs, and as you can see, price needs to drop to 2456 now to start even making a dent. Figure 8. Long Term Simple Moving Averages: 100% Bullish. Short term Simple Moving Averages: 100% Bullish Copyright Intelligent Investing, LLC. May not be copied and/or distributed without permission. Copyright Intelligent Investing, LLC. May not be copied and/or distributed without permission. 9 P a g e

10 Fib-based Trading Interval Turn dates & Remaining Bradley Turn Dates for 2017 A (weak) Bradley turn date is set for October 7, and could have been associated with today s drop. My next turn dates are October 18 and 19. Could these mark the major-3 top? Figure 9. Fib-based turn dates. December 3 (23/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) December 6 (100/100 Long Terms Power) ALOHA Soul, Ph.D. 2017, Intelligent Investing, LLC. This copyrighted weekly periodical is published on non-stock market trading weekend days by Intelligent Investing, LLC, and is intended solely for use by designated recipients. No reproduction, retransmission, or other use of the information or images is authorized. Legitimate news media may quote representative passages, in context and with full attribution, for the purpose of reporting on our opinions. Analysis is derived from data believed to be accurate, but such accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that such analysis, past or future, will be profitable or will equal past performance or guarantee future performance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. Inclusion 10 P a g e

11 of information about managed accounts, program positions and other information is not intended as any type of recommendation, nor solicitation. For more information, contact intelligent investing at We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone for any reason. 11 P a g e