Minute-iv SPX2550 +/- 5
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- Willa Leonard
- 5 years ago
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1 Executive Summary Over the past weeks I reiterated smaller corrections can still be viewed as buying opportunities for short-term traders. So far so good, as the S&P dropped to SPX2544 and the NASDAQ to the 0.618x extension on Thursday and then rallied to new All Time Highs (ATHs) on Friday on the back of Big Tech s earnings. Yes, big tech is finally joining the Bull Party as up to last week 5 out of the 7 FAANGTT (FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, TSLA, TWTR) stocks were still not making new highs. Currently that is 2 out of 8 (AAPL and TSLA are still lagging). Last week there was some uncertainty on the exact (micro) wave degree the market was in, but I was still looking for higher prices intermediate to longer term regardless, and depending on where the market would bottom we d then be able to firm the micro-elliot Wave count up: for the preferred count [minute-iv] the correction should drop the S&P to around SPX2530+/-5. For the alternate, more bullish, count [micro-4] the S&P should stay above SPX As the price action was unfolding over the past week, the NASDAQ, DJIA and breadth indicators suggested for each day that passed that minute-iii was still unfolding and thus the preferred and alternate EWT-counts were switched. Correctly so, as the S&P bottomed at SPX2544 and rallied to new ATHs telling us that the more bullish count is operable. Please see the plot below on where we most likely are on the S&P from an Elliot Wave Perspective. Micro-5 of minute-iii to SPX , with an ideal target of SPX2596 for the S&P and $6755 for the NAS, should now be underway as long as price remains above SPX2567. Once SPX2596 +/-5 has been reached the markets should see its largest correction since the low made in August and correct 40-65p on the S&P and $110-$180 on the NAS, depending on the Fibonacci-based retrace level (23.6 or 38.2%; respectively) for minute-iv. Hence, for now, let s assume ~50p on the S&P; to SPX2550 +/- 5. After that we should see one final rally; minute-v to new ATHs (~SPX /10 and around $6860 on the NAS) before the market embarks on a much larger correction: major-4, which will bring price back down to SPX2400 +/-50 and $6200 +/- 100 on the NAS. While the Simple Moving Averages charts remain 100% Bullish, and the VIX gave a Sell the VIX, buy the SPX signal on Friday, the Market Breadth based buy/sell indicators (based on the Summation Indices (SIs) ) are turning more and more from a buy to a sell. Despite the strong rally on Friday, the SPX-SI gave a sell signal, joining the NAS-SI, NDX-SI and NYA-SI. Only the DOW-SI remains on a buy. The analogy with April-2016 thus remains and is strengthening. SPX2578 Micro-3 SPX2600 +/- 5 Minute-iii SPX2610 +/- 10 Major-3 Micro-4 SPX2544 Minute-iv SPX2550 +/- 5 You are here Major-4 SPX2400 +/ P a g e
2 Elliot Wave Updates The financial markets are non-linear and must therefore be approached from a wrong till proven right perspective. As the final 4 th and 5 th waves for major-3 are unfolding, in last weekend s update it was uncertain if minute-iii had completed or not. The preferred count suggested yes, the alternate no. Since price is king, using price levels for supporting one possibility of the other (remember markets are all about probabilities of possibilities; and it is my task to determine those to the best of my ability) it was determined that When the market corrects next we will know more: for the preferred count the correction should drop the S&P to around SPX2530+/-5. For the alternate, more bullish, count the S&P should stay above SPX On Thursday the S&P dropped to SPX2544 (see Figure 1) and started to rally and the NAS dropped to the 61.8% extension (see Figure 2, next page), suggesting the alternate more bullish count. With new ATHs on Friday this count is now preferred. Only a break below SPX2567 will change my POV. Figure 1. S&P 1-minute chart: micro-5 underway. For wave degree nomenclature also see Figure-2 The micro-count (See Figure 1) has 5 small waves up off the SPX2544 low for (pink) nano-1. Etc. So far still a nice impulse. But as said, if the S&P breaks below SPX2568 then we have a first sign of a larger 4 th wave correction, which should revisit SPX2540s. For now, especially based on the NAS (see Figure 2 next page), I find this possibility much less likely. 2 P a g e
3 The hourly chart below of the S&P shows price found support right at the upper end of the ideal target zone for (orange) micro-4, and how price moved back above the black and green uptrend lines: uptrend continues. (Orange) micro-5 should target the SPX zone, with an ideal target of SPX2596. For the NAS (white) minute-v of (green) minor-3 should ideally complete at the 1.382x Fib-extension ($6755). Note how this index continues to follow the ideal Fib-extensions for an impulse wave (see here). Figure 2: S&P hourly chart: price targets for minute-iii. NAS daily chart: continues to follow standard impulse pattern. Copyright Intelligent Investing, LLC. May not be copied and/or distributed without permission. Copyright Intelligent Investing, LLC. May not be copied and/or distributed without permission. 3 P a g e
4 The daily Technical Indicators (TIs) chart of the S&P continues to look strong despite Thursday s pullback. Price is above all SMAs (5d to 200d) and above all up trendlines. The TIs are pointing back up, with the A.I. giving a non-ideal buysignal (all 3 lines point back up, but from >20) wanting to see higher prices, in line with the preferred count. Figure 3. S&P daily TI chart: micro-5 of minute-iii underway. TIs pointing back up. 4 P a g e
5 The weekly S&P chart shows the index is still nicely on track to the next higher symmetry break out level of SPX2600 (SPX2425, 2485 have both been reached ). All TIs are pointing up, and there are no sell signals. Hence, over the next few weeks we can expect higher prices, which fits with the preferred view that micro-5 of minute-iii is wrapping up (ideally by the end of next week), then a multi-week minute-iv followed by a multi-week minute-v to complete major- 3 Figure 4: S&P weekly chart: all symmetry break out price targets reached. SPX2600 remains on track. 5 P a g e
6 Market breadth & Simple Moving Averages Charts Despite the strong rally on Friday, the SPXSI (Summation Index for the S&P500, derived from the McClellan Oscillator for S&P500 (SPXMO)) gave a sell signal on Friday, as breadth remained negative: -14. Down 34p over last Friday and thus not confirming this week s higher close. The SPX-SI has now joined the NAS-SI, NDX-SI and NYA-SI as those are on sell signals as well. The similarities with April-2016, orange band and as shown before, thus continues to strengthen. Back then the market was also in a 5 th of a 3 rd wave. The stocks in the S&P above their 50d and 200d SMA ended the week at +70 and+72; neither confirming the higher prices, but still high enough to continue to sustain the current rally. Note the negative divergences that are now starting to build, supporting the case for weakening rallies that will eventually turn into the anticipated larger (major-4 correction) as less and less stocks are participating. Next week I will review the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) charts for the major indices as many are starting to show cracks. Figure 5. SPXSI gave a sell signal on Friday. Percent stocks above their 50d and 200d SMA diverging. 6 P a g e
7 The VIX gave a sell the VIX, buy the SPX signal on Friday as it completed it s 3-step signal. Albeit this is not the most reliable of indicators, it adds to the thesis that micro-5 to SPX2596 +/- 5 over the next few days is underway. Figure 6. VIX gave a sell the VIX, buy the SPX signal. 7 P a g e
8 Both the long term and short-term simple moving averages charts remain 100% Bullish. The former has been 100% Bullish since late-september last year. For trend followers among us, you know what this means: higher prices can be expected going forward. Figure 7. Long Term Simple Moving Averages: 100% Bullish. Short term Simple Moving Averages: 100% Bullish Copyright Intelligent Investing, LLC. May not be copied and/or distributed without permission. Copyright Intelligent Investing, LLC. May not be copied and/or distributed without permission. 8 P a g e
9 Fib-based Trading Interval Turn dates & Remaining Bradley Turn Dates for 2017 The market peaked exactly on October 23 (Monday), but as usual the issue with turn dates is they don t foretell the magnitude of the move. That s why all other charts and analytical techniques are used. Together with the Bradley turn dates, there is a cluster of turn dates early/mid-december; major-3 top? Figure 8. Fib-based turn dates. December 3 (23/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) December 6 (100/100 Long Terms Power) 2017, Intelligent Investing, LLC. This copyrighted weekly periodical is published on non-stock market trading weekend days by Intelligent Investing, LLC, and is intended solely for use by designated recipients. No reproduction, retransmission, or other use of the information or images is authorized. Legitimate news media may quote representative passages, in context and with full attribution, for the purpose of reporting on our opinions. Analysis is derived from data believed to be accurate, but such accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that such analysis, past or future, will be profitable or will equal past performance or guarantee future performance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. Inclusion of information about managed accounts, program positions and other information is not intended as any type of recommendation, nor solicitation. For more information, contact intelligent investing at intelligent_investing@yahoo.com. We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone for any reason. 9 P a g e
1 P a g e. Executive Summary
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Flat/consolidation day for the S&P and NAS, whereas the DJIA continued its relentless Bull run. Since the low made in February 2016 (22 months ago) the DJIA has gained 8000 points, of which the last 3100
More information1 P a g e. Figure 1. NAS daily chart and S&P hourly chart: minute-v of minor-3 and micro-5 of minute-iv; respectively underway.
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Executive Summary Last week we found, based on our analyses of the charts: Our SPX2146-2069 target zone remains and can now be narrowed down to SPX2117-2069, as the S&P500 closed at SPX2128 yesterday,
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Executive Summary Over the past week we re-introduced some alternative counts, all of which bullish and some simple more bullish than others. The market keeps tracking them well; and we still can t eliminate
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Clearly it is a Bull till it isn t and I ve been re-iterating this -albeit Elliot Wave Theory-wise things started to look complete- every update (Just read the conclusion of last Thursday s daily update
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Executive Summary Last week we forecasted an ideal minute iii top at SPX2174-2188, followed by a drop to SPX2250-2235 (likely the high end of the range) for minute iv before the market continues to melt
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
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More informationIntelligent Investing, LLC Major Indices Daily Update 02/26/ 19
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More informationc=a Figure 1. SPX 60 min & NAS 1-min chart.
Today s drop came as expected and the S&P moved as low as SPX2562, but as said yesterday A move below today s low SPX2569 will be a first sign intermediate-b is underway, with confirmation below SPX2545.
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
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Summary Based on the prior week s price action, I found in last week s digest uncertainty has increased once again on where the market exactly is from and EWT-count perspective. The standard impulse (preferred),
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Summary Like last week, also this week s Friday-price action left a lot to be desired for the Bulls and ambiguity regarding which exact Elliot Wave price pattern remains: major-4 still underway? Major-4
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Elliot Wave Updates Today the S&P500 was stuck in a less than 6p range. So there s really not much we can learn. All parameters remain the same a step 2: A move below SPX2764.55 (last Thursday s low) will
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Elliot Wave Updates It is still technically possible for the S&P500 to be in minor-4, as it is becoming possible more complex, but since the RUT is IMHO already in a confirmed major-2/b down wave, see
More informationALOHA. Arnout aka Soul, Ph.D. 5 P a g e
I continue to use the wave-i, ii count as my preferred count until proven otherwise. Why? 1) Price bottomed last week right in the preferred target zone for wave-ii. No need to overthink that. 2) The entire
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The short term count remains a bit messy over the past three days, so we ll just look at trendlines instead: see Figure- 1. Hence, please don t focus on the wave labeling as the 2 nd SPX2699 low may have
More informationTech is weakest and has already moved below its SPX2604 low. Hence it is logical to assume the S&P will follow suit soon.
Yesterday I concluded If my count is correct than minute-i of minor-c/1 is soon complete and we should see a short and brief minute-ii bounce before iii of c/3 gets going. Little did I know that today
More informationiii Figure 1. SPX 60-min chart.
Today the S&P500 (not the DJIA, NAS and NDX) made a marginally lower low below yesterday s low (SPX2527 vs SPX2529), which forced me to re-assess the short-term Elliott-wave count I have for this move
More informationb/ii c/iii b/ii b/ii Figure 1. SPX 60-min chart. NAS 1-min chart.
On Monday I concluded Above SPX2690 opens the door for major-a having completed and major-b to SPX2800s is underway. Yesterday I then found that the recent SPX2631 low is an unusual point for a bottom
More informationFigure 1. SPX daily chart: Larger leading- or ending diagonal, with wave-4 of the diagonal now SPX2675ish now underway
This correction is full of surprises, twists, turns, sharp drops and rallies. That s why corrections are so hard to forecast compared to an impulse. Thus, with the market not complying too much, other
More informationFigure 1. S&P 60-min chart. Ideally intermediate-a bottomed at SPX2593, then b to SPX2808 and c down to 2529
On Friday and Monday, 89% of NYSE stocks declined. Two back-to-back 89% down days are generally indicative of selling exhaustion, and on que 72% of NYSE stocks advanced today (ref: ISPYETF). This fits
More informationFigure 1. SPX 60 min & NAS 1-min chart.
BINGO!? Today we reached the ideal SPX2625 target to the T (SPX2625.76) for wave-a. There s now negative divergence again on the hourly RSI5 and the hourly MACD (see Fig 1), while the daily indicators
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Last week I showed the big-picture EW/OEW count and overview of the NASDAQ, which aligned well with where many big-tech companies are in there respective wave-counts: I found Cylce-1
More informationIn addition, a word of advice: when in a Bear market and my Elliot Wave Count suggests either down or a few more subdivisions marginally higher
WOW, who would have known?! Price went from my upper target zone to my lower (see page 2) in just 11 trading hours: The S&P500 lost ~10p/hour Crazy. Big gap ups one day, followed by a 100p drop the next
More information1 P a g e. Summary. However, a move over SPX2817 from current levels will mean we re still dealing with a larger, more complex bounce to SPX
Summary Last week I provided some additional information from John Murphy and about typical end-of-bull sector rotation as added weight of evidence for a larger correction being underway. This week the
More informationSPX for the smaller major-4 triangle or SPX to complete the double zigzag. Figure 1.
Today s break -finally- below SPX2625 (and SPX2613) places the Ball now firmly in the Bears camp, albeit today s strong rally off the lows. And the two main bear counts remain the focus for now: SPX2579-2568
More informationSummary Merry Christmass,
Summary For weeks I ve been looking for the indices to reach ideally SPX2500-2475, NAS6395-6295 and NDX6080 +/- 10, DJIA $23,200 +/-100 and RUT $1355-1310. as at these levels the minute, minor and intermediate-waves
More information1 P a g e. Summary. For now, I am looking for a major-a low at
Summary As all most all my forecasted upside (retrace) and downside (Extension) price targets have been reached over the last 3-4 weeks I then always try to be extra careful, cautious and objective in
More informationFigure 1. SPX 1-min chart. NAS 1-min chart.
In the weekend update I summarized my findings as Short-term the market should be close to completing intermediate-a, though based on a simple Bollinger Band Study, SPX2820 may well be reached first, which
More information1 P a g e. Summary. Aloha, Dr. Arnout, aka Soul, ter Schure
Summary Two weeks ago I was already looking for Ideal lows are in the S&P2670-2600, NASDAQ $7000-6800 and RUT $1460-2480 zones., and last week I determined that Although the ideal c=a target for the S&P500
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary For three weeks we provided a primary (major b) and alternative count (primary V) up and we keep tracking both until one or the other is disproven. Two weeks ago we projected a major
More information2 P a g e. Elliot Wave Updates
Summary Last week I concluded Short term there s a possibility to revisit SPX2700-2730 first before moving below SPX2600, but the most likely scenario is a direct move lower with an ultimate target of
More informationThe S&P500 is still allowed to tag SPX and then roll over, as it would fit with a c=a relationship on the COMPQ to $6226.
Yesterday I showed the different possibilities the market has, and since there s not been a >10p move to the opposite direction since the SPX2446.55 low and SPX 2469.64 higher were struck (today s decline
More informationSummary III III Aloha,
Summary In last week s update I mentioned A break below SPX2875 would be worrysome for the Bull case and morph things into something else. Well, that is what happened the past week and this week s update
More informationFigure 1. NAS 1-min and SPX 60 min charts.
Today s update will be brief as price on most indices has now reached their upside targets for the anticipated intermediate wave-a. The NASDAQ has reached the upper end of its first resistance zone. If
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
Executive Summary Last week s call for continued upside was correct as the market delivered a new ATH and again a new weekly closing high. The third week in a row (!). So yes, the trend is clearly up,
More information2 P a g e. Elliot Wave Updates
Summary In last week s update I concluded The S&P500 closed at SPX2532 and therefore suggests major-b is underway. Majora simple formed an unorthodox oversold bottom, I now prefer to see this rally as
More informationWhat keeps me from being extremely Bullish (e.g. a move directly to SPX3200+ from current levels) is
Summary Over the last month the market has been rather choppy and overlapping, invalidating several times standard Fib-based impulse patterns, leaving us therefore with what counts best as only a, b, c-waves
More informationResistance remains in the SPX S/R zone, with a break out targeting 2170s.
Executive Summary With a flat week, it appears a one pager would be sufficient to summarize what has happened. However, we believe that would get us off too easy and we still would like to provide a full
More informationFigure 1. SPX 60-min chart. Ending diagonal triangle forming, a set of nested 1,2 waves; or simple 3 waves down off SPX2800 to complete major-a?
In the weekend update I was looking for lower prices, and lower we got, but price did also close higher, i.e. above Fridays close. Another Bullish reversal candle? We ve seen plenty of these one-hit-wonders
More information1 P a g e. Executive Summary
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More informationSummary b/2 b/2 Aloha,
Summary As we ve been navigating this Bear market s twists and turns rather successfully over the last few weeks, we can hopefully continue this winning streak. Short-term, Friday s price action left a
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