Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 29, Daily CTI. Swing

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1 Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 29, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Neutral Low Positive Low Transports Positive Low Positive Low NDX Negative High Positive Low S&P Inverse Fund Negative N/A * Negative High CRB Index Negative Low Positive High Gold Positive Low Positive Low XAU Positive Low Positive Low Dollar Negative High Positive High Bonds Positive High Negative High Crude Oil Negative Low Positive High Unleaded Negative High Positive High Natural Gas Negative High Negative High *Since this fund is quoted at the end of the day it is impossible for the concept of swing highs and lows to apply on a daily level. The primary interests here are the weekly developments. The daily is representative of the short-term and the weekly is representative of the intermediate-term Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 3

2 Short-term Updates Note on the Cycle Turn Indicator The most important indicator we have is the Cycle Turn Indicator and the most important timeframe, at least in my mind, is the intermediate-term. This indicator has proven itself time and time again. In reality, this is all we really need to know. Everything else is secondary. That being said, please be sure to monitor the "Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary" above. Red indicates that a swing high and down turn of the Cycle Turn Indicator has occurred and lower prices should follow. The only exception here is that on the daily stock market signals we also want to see both the slow cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. Yellow, is cautionary meaning that the Cycle Turn Indicator and the swing are not in agreement, which is typically indicative of a trend change. Green, means that a swing low has occurred and that the Cycle Turn Indicator is positive, which should be followed by higher prices. Again, the only exception here is the daily stock market signals in that we want to see both the slow Cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. For everything else, all that matters is the formation of a swing and the direction of the Cycle Turn Indicator. All subscribers who do not understand cyclical translation should click here "Notes for New Subscribers." It is important that you read and understand the content found in both of the PDF files that you will find at this link. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 4

3 Stocks End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Buy/Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) CTI on Rydex Tempest Fund * Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Advance/Decline Issues Diff New High New Low Diff Secondary Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator *When this indictor is it is negative for the market and visa versa. January 29, 2019 Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy/Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Slow Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) New High/New Low Differential Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) McClellan Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) McClellan Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator (ITVM) McClellan Summation Index McClellan Volume Summation Index Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator Trading Cycle Oscillator Momentum Indicator Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator Crossover Accumulation/Distribution Index The price action on Monday completed the formation of a daily swing high with the price action on Tuesday completing the formation of another daily swing low. All the while, the price/oscillator picture continues to be indicative of the trading cycle top. But so far, short and intermediate-term buy signals, in association with the trading and intermediate-term cycle advance out of the December low in Equities, remain intact. Structurally, on many of the Equity related indexes and averages it appears as if the half-trading cycle low was seen on January 22nd. This is not so apparent when just looking a the Industrials, but we know Equities are all pretty much moving to a similar cyclical pattern. Therefore, in light of the collective evidence with regard to the half-trading cycle low, a short-term sell signal will in turn be suggestive of a left-translated half-trading cycle top, which will consequently be suggestive of the trading cycle top. This continues to be an important technical juncture for Equities and while the buy signals remain intact, because of the higher degree cyclical structure, the risk also remains high. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 5

4 The price action on Friday completed the formation of a daily swing low in Gold, which triggered a shortterm buy signal in association with the trading cycle low. The advance out of this trading cycle low in both Gold and the XAU remains intact and the next opportunity for the intermediate-term cycle top will come with the next trading cycle top. A short-term sell signal was triggered in Crude Oil on Monday, but with Tuesday s completion of a daily swing low, we must see this sell signal reconfirmed with a close below Monday s low. The expectation is for the top in Crude Oil and Equities to occur in close proximity with each other. If the decline out of the trading cycle top completes the formation of a weekly swing high, then we will at that time have evidence with regard to the higher degree counter-trend top in Crude Oil. The CRB Index also triggered a short-term sell signal on Monday, but here too, as a result of Tuesday s completion of a daily swing low we must also see it reconfirmed as well. The Dollar completed the formation of a daily swing high on Friday that was confirmed by a downturn of the daily CTI, which triggered a shortterm sell signal, which still remains in place, which in turn leaves the Dollar at risk of a left-translated structure and another trading cycle down into the intermediate-term cycle low. The trading cycle low in Bonds was seen on January 18th and with Friday completing the formation of a daily swing high, they are also at risk of a left-translated trading cycle top and further weakness into the higher degree intermediateterm cycle low. More on the structure of the trading cycle in the Dollar and Bonds as this develops. Below is our distribution indicator. The red intermediate-term Advancing issues line is tied to the intermediate-term cycle, which after violating its October low, has continued higher. Looking back into the 1920 s, there are limited occurrences of such patterns. Of the dozen or so patterns I found, a couple of them were associated with lows, but the vast majority were associated with counter-trend advances that were followed by lower lows. The green MA line has crossed above the black MA line. Given that the December low has proven to have marked the intermediate-term cycle low, another downturn below the black MA line will be indicative of the intermediateterm cycle top. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 6

5 The Trading Cycle Oscillator in the upper window remains marginally below its trigger line. The Momentum indicator in the upper window has now turned marginally below its zero line. The stochastic in the middle window continues to weaken. The first of our Primary Short-Term Indicators is the New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price, which has ticked back up. Overall, these indicators continue to be suggestive of the trading cycle top, but we must see a short-term sell signal as the first level of evidence with regard to this top. The Trend Indicator remains positive in association with the advance out of trading and intermediate-term cycle low. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 7

6 The Three Primary Short-Term Indicators are the Original and the Slow Cycle Turn Indicators, both plotted below, and the NYSE New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price above. Bottom line, the expectation continues to be that the advance out of the December 26th low is counter-trend and Equities are in a technical position in which the opportunity for the trading cycle top is at hand. Once a daily swing high is formed AND confirmed by a downturn of ALL Three of the Primary Short-Term Indicators, a short-term sell signal will be triggered, which will put the market in an increasingly risky position with regard to what should lead to the setup for the decline into the higher degree cycle lows. Until then, this advance will remain in force. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 8

7 Both the Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator and the Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator remain above their trigger lines in association with the advance out of the trading cycle low. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 9

8 The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes are also used to measure the intermediate- term internals. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator in the upper window is shorter-term in nature and is therefore used to help identify the shorter-term tops and bottoms, but it is also useful in identifying intermediate-term cycle tops and bottoms. Both the McClellan Summation Index and the McClellan Volume Summation Index also remain positive in association with their upturns out of the trading cycle low. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator remains below its trigger line, which makes it negative as we use it. The triggering of a short-term sell signal with this indicator positioned below the trigger line will be indicative of the trading cycle top. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 10

9 Next is the Smoothed McClellan Oscillator, which remains flat. A cross below the trigger line in association with a short-term sell signal will be suggestive of the trading cycle top. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 11

10 Next is the Accumulation/Distribution Index, which has turned back down. The divergence we have seen is suggestive of the pending top, but we need to see the triggering of a short-term sell signal in order to mark that top. Short of another market miracle, the advance out of the December low should be counter-trend and the higher degree intermediate-term, seasonal and 4-year cycle low should still lie ahead. Bottom line, the higher degree setup with regard to the 4-year cycle top remains intact, but at the same time so does the countertrend advance out of the intermediate-term cycle low. Therefore, the standoff continues and consequently we remain in the same holding pattern as we await the resolution of this setup. The opportunity to cap this intermediate-term advance will come with the triggering of a short-term sell signal, but until then, higher prices will remain possible. On the one hand, these buy signals remain intact. On the other hand, because of the evidence with regard to the clustering of higher degree cycle lows still lying ahead, the market is in a risky technical position similar to the Amdocs chart I showed you last week. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 12

11 Gold End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Neutral Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The timing band for the trading cycle low ran between January 11th and January 25th. On Friday we saw the completion of a daily swing low, which served to confirm January 24th as having marked the trading cycle low and as stated in the weekend update, this put a fresh trading cycle low in place, which again positioned Gold to move higher. That said, the intermediate-term cycle top is also due and it will now be the current/next trading cycle advance that will have the opportunity to cap this intermediate-term cycle. The first evidence to that effect will come if we see this trading cycle peak with a left-translated structure. In the meantime, this short-term buy signal will continue to hold until a daily swing high and downturn of the daily CTI is seen. A daily swing high will be completed on Wednesday if 1, is not bettered and if is violated. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 13

12 Our daily chart of the XAU is next. The price action on January 23rd marginally completed the formation of a daily swing low, which was accompanied by a marginal upturn of the daily CTI, which marginally triggered a short-term buy signal. As with Gold, we knew that the trading cycle low was due and the additional strength on Friday served to confirm that low. Also as with Gold, the next trading cycle top will be the next opportunity to cap the higher degree intermediate-term cycle top. If this trading cycle peaks with a left-translated structure, then we will have the possible makings of an intermediate-term cycle top. In the meantime, this short-term buy signal in association with the new trading cycle low will stand until another daily swing high and downturn of the daily CTI is seen. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 14

13 Dollar End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Neutral/Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic No change with the Dollar. The trading cycle low was seen on January 9th and the timing band for the next trading cycle low runs between February 4th and February 18th. The current trading cycle continues to be a test as to whether we have also seen the intermediate-term cycle low, or if that low still lies ahead with one more trading cycle down. If this trading cycle advance peaks with a right-translated structure, then it should prove that the intermediate-term cycle low was seen on January 9th. But, in the event this trading cycle peaks with a left-translated structure, it will leave the Dollar set up for another trading cycle down into the intermediate-term cycle low. With the price action on Friday completing the formation of a daily swing high, along with the downturn of the daily CTI, a short-term sell signal was triggered. As a result, the Dollar remains at risk of a left-translated trading cycle top, which we must assume to be the case until proven otherwise. Any further weakness as we approach the timing band will be further suggestive of this having been the case. In order to correct this seemingly lefttranslated structure, the January 24th daily swing high has to be bettered. Until then, the assumption is that we have a lefttranslated trading cycle top in place. A daily swing low will be completed on Wednesday if holds and if is bettered. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 15

14 Bonds End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The timing band for the trading cycle low ran between January 4th and January 25th and this low was seen on January 18th. The price action on Friday completed the formation of a daily swing high, but with the daily CTI remaining positive, the short-term buy signal remains intact. On Tuesday another daily swing low was completed and now, in order to mend the potential of an intermediate-term cycle top, the advance out of this trading cycle low must unfold with a right-translated structure. As a result of Tuesday s completion of a daily swing low, that test is now at hand. A failed and/or left-translated trading cycle advance will leave Bonds positioned for further weakness into the higher degree intermediate-term cycle low. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 16

15 Crude Oil With the price action on Monday finally violating the January 22nd low, along with the preceding downturn of the daily CTI, a short-term sell signal was triggered. On Tuesday price completed the formation of a daily swing low, but with the daily CTI still negative, Monday s short-term sell signal remains intact. Now, as a result of the completion of the daily swing low on Tuesday, we must see a close below Monday s low in order to re-confirm this sell signal. Any further advance from here will re-trigger another short-term buy signal if it turns the daily CTI up, but it should be an ending push into the trading cycle top. Overall, the price/ oscillator picture continues to be suggestive of a top, but we must now see this sell signal re-confirmed. Then, if the decline that follows completes the formation of a weekly swing high, which is also confirmed by a downturn of the weekly CTI, the evidence will be suggestive of the anticipated counter-trend intermediateterm cycle top as well. A daily swing high will be completed again on Wednesday if is not bettered and if is violated. Again, any additional push up from here should be associated with a final push into the trading cycle top. I also want to remind you that Crude Oil peaked in conjunction with Equites in October and bottomed in conjunction with Equities in December. The expectation is for this intermediate-term cycle advance to also ultimately peak in conjunction with Equities Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved timwood1@cyclesman.com Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 17

16 Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 18