Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. November 29, Daily CTI. Swing

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1 Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on November 29, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Negative Low Transports Positive Low Positive Low NDX Positive Low Positive Low S&P Inverse Fund Negative N/A * Positive High CRB Index Positive Low Negative High Gold Negative Low Positive High XAU Positive Low Positive High Dollar Negative High Positive Low Bonds Positive Low Positive Low Crude Oil Positive High Negative High Unleaded Positive High Negative High Natural Gas Positive Low Negative Low *Since this fund is quoted at the end of the day it is impossible for the concept of swing highs and lows to apply on a daily level. The primary interests here are the weekly developments. The daily is representative of the short-term and the weekly is representative of the intermediate-term Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 3

2 Short-term Updates Note on the Cycle Turn Indicator The most important indicator we have is the Cycle Turn Indicator and the most important timeframe, at least in my mind, is the intermediate-term. This indicator has proven itself time and time again. In reality, this is all we really need to know. Everything else is secondary. That being said, please be sure to monitor the "Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary" above. Red indicates that a swing high and down turn of the Cycle Turn Indicator has occurred and lower prices should follow. The only exception here is that on the daily stock market signals we also want to see both the slow cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. Yellow, is cautionary meaning that the Cycle Turn Indicator and the swing are not in agreement, which is typically indicative of a trend change. Green, means that a swing low has occurred and that the Cycle Turn Indicator is positive, which should be followed by higher prices. Again, the only exception here is the daily stock market signals in that we want to see both the slow Cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. For everything else, all that matters is the formation of a swing and the direction of the Cycle Turn Indicator. All subscribers who do not understand cyclical translation should click here "Notes for New Subscribers." It is important that you read and understand the content found in both of the PDF files that you will find at this link. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 4

3 Stocks End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) CTI on Rydex Tempest Fund * Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Advance/Decline Issues Diff New High New Low Diff Secondary Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator *When this indictor is it is negative for the market and visa versa. November 29, 2018 Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy/Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Buy Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Slow Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) New High/New Low Differential Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) McClellan Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) McClellan Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator (ITVM) McClellan Summation Index McClellan Volume Summation Index Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator Trading Cycle Oscillator Momentum Indicator Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator Crossover Accumulation/Distribution Index The advance out of the half-trading cycle low remains intact and higher prices will remain possible until another daily swing high and short-term sell signal is triggered. With that said, the intermediate-term sell signal still remains intact and based on the structural developments currently in place at that level, this should ideally prove to be a counter-trend advance. For now, we remains at an indecisive juncture in which there is a technical battle between the short-term, to turn the intermediate-term up, and the intermediateterm, to turn the short-term back down. I have explained repeatedly that the Industrials have been the holdout and that the technical setup with them was not yet complete. For that reason, this technical battle has the potential to go either way. But, based on the technical evidence with regard to the 4-year cycle top in the broad list of markets discussed in the November letter, another kick of the can down the road at this juncture should prove to be futile and only delay and extend the overall setup. Given that this advance has again moved to overbought levels, resolution should be seen soon and the completion of a daily swing high is the first step. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 5

4 Gold and the XAU have once again bounced, but it should again be counter-trend. The short-term sell signal in Gold remains intact, but the XAU did trigger a short-term buy signal in association with this bounce. Crude Oil moved to a new intraday low, but Tuesday s short-term buy signal remains intact. Upon the completion of another daily swing high, the attempted bounce should have run its course. The intermediate-term sell signal in Crude Oil remain intact. The Dollar has triggered a short-term sell signal and is now at risk of a left-translated trading cycle top, which if proven to be the case should coincide with the higher degree intermediate-term cycle top. A questionable short-term sell signal was seen in Bonds on Tuesday and on Thursday another short-term buy signal was re-triggered. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 6

5 The first chart below shows our distribution indicator. The red intermediate-term Advancing issues line is tied to the intermediate-term cycle, which has moved significantly higher, which is in turn further suggestive of the October low having marked the intermediate-term cycle low. The crossing of the green MA line, above the black MA line, also continues to be suggestive of the October low having marked the intermediateterm cycle low and a turn back down will be suggestive of the intermediate-term cycle top. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 7

6 The Trading Cycle Oscillator in the upper window remains positive in association with the upturn out of the half-trading cycle low. The Momentum indicator in the upper window has turned above its trigger line, which is further indicative of the half-trading cycle low. The stochastic in the middle window has moved to oversold levels and at one point today when the market was near its high this indicator was at the most overbought levels in over a year. The first of our Primary Short-Term Indicators is the New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price, which has once again turned back up in association with the halftrading cycle low. The Trend Indicator is once again trying to turn back up. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 8

7 The Three Primary Short-Term Indicators are the Original and the Slow Cycle Turn Indicators, both plotted below, and the NYSE New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price above. Bottom line, a short-term buy signal was triggered on Wednesday and while this should ideally be a countertrend advance, this buy signal will remain intact until another daily swing high is formed and short-term sell signal is triggered. The assumption continues to be that we have a left-translated trading and intermediate-term cycle top in place and as a result, the risk at this juncture remains high. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 9

8 Both the Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator and the Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator are again positive. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 10

9 The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes are also used to measure the intermediate- term internals. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator in the upper window is shorter-term in nature and is therefore used to help identify the shorter-term tops and bottoms, but it is also useful in identifying intermediate-term cycle tops and bottoms. Both the McClellan Summation Index and the McClellan Volume Summation Index are also back in gear to the upside. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator turned marginally lower on Thursday, but remains above its zero. A cross back below the zero line in conjunction with a short-term sell signal will leave equities positioned to move lower in association with the decline into the trading cycle low. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 11

10 Next is the Smoothed McClellan Oscillator, which has turned back above its trigger line. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 12

11 The Accumulation/Distribution Index turned up slightly ahead of the half-trading cycle low, which warned of the bounce out of that low. Once another downturn of the Accumulation/Distribution Index is seen, this counter-trend top should be in place. Until then, higher prices are possible. In Summary, the bounce out of the half-trading cycle low remains intact and we now have a short-term buy signal. This is occurring at a technical juncture in which there is a battle between the short-term to turn the intermediate-term up and the intermediate-term to turn the short-term back down. If the short-term turns back down first, Equities will be positioned for an accelerated decline out left-translated cycles. If the intermediate-term turns back up, then the can got momentarily kicked down the road again, but given the technical developments in place in other Equity related markets, it should be short lived and only another crook and turn in the overall higher degree setup. Equities remain at risk of both failed and left-translated trading and intermediate-term cycle tops, thus this remains a critical juncture. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 13

12 Gold End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Neutral Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic Gold reversed off the lows on Wednesday and on Thursday it completed the formation of a daily swing low. But, with the daily CTI still negative, a short-term buy signal was not triggered. The cyclical phasing is suggestive of the October 31st daily swing low having marked the trading cycle low and because of the violation of that low on November 9th, every indication is that we have a failed and left-translated trading cycle at play. As a result, this should be another counter-trend advance. The timing band for the trading cycle low runs between November 26th and December 10th, so we have moved into the window for this low. However, with the low point following the trading cycle top having occurred on November 13th, which is prior to price having moved into this timing band, the November low should not have marked the low and with the November 28th low having occurred above the November 13th low, it should not have marked the trading cycle low either. Therefore, unless we saw an unusually short trading cycle with the low occurring on November 13th, which I don t think was the case, lower prices into the trading cycle low should still lie ahead. To see anything to the contrary will suggest that something else is going on here. A daily swing high will be completed on Friday if 1, is not bettered and if 1, is violated. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 14

13 Our daily chart of the XAU is next. Because of the violation of the October 31st trading cycle low in conjunction with the decline into the November 13th daily swing low, the expectation has been for the advance out of the November 13th low to be counter-trend. On Wednesday we saw the completion of another daily swing low and upturn of the daily CTI, which re-triggered another short-term buy signal. On Thursday price reversed off the highs and any further decline on Friday that completes the formation of a daily swing high will re-trigger another short-term sell signal, which will again leave price positioned for further weakness into the next trading cycle low. A daily swing high will be completed on Friday if is not bettered and if is violated. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 15

14 Dollar End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell/Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic The timing band for the trading cycle low ran between November 9th and November 23rd. The assumption has been that the trading cycle top was seen on November 12th and that the low was seen on November 20th. On Wednesday price reversed off of its high and on Thursday the Dollar completed the formation of a daily swing high that was confirmed by a downturn of the daily CTI, which triggered a short-term sell signal. In doing so, the Dollar is now at risk of a left-translated trading cycle top, which if this does in fact prove correct should coincide with the higher degree intermediate-term cycle top. Given the cyclical phasing of the trading and intermediate-term cycles, along with the accompanying oscillator picture at both levels, we will now assume that this is the case until the Dollar can prove itself otherwise. Should there be another push up here, it should be an ending move into the trading and intermediateterm cycle top. A daily swing low will be completed on Friday if can hold and if is bettered. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 16

15 Bonds End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The price action on Monday completed the formation of a daily swing high. Tuesday was an inside day, but it turned the daily CTI down, which in turn triggered a short-term sell signal. The timing band for the next/ current trading cycle low runs between November 29th and December 20th. The price action on Thursday completed the formation of a daily swing low that was confirmed by an upturn of the daily CTI, which in turn triggered a short-term buy signal. Based on the timing band for this low and the accompanying oscillator picture, the November 28th daily swing low should not have ideally marked the trading cycle low, because it fell just a little on the early side and the oscillator picture had not fully matured. Regardless, we do now have a buy signal and any further advance from here over the next few days will have to be viewed as confirmation of an early trading cycle low. To the contrary, any further weakness from here will have to be viewed as this having been an ending push up into the trading cycle top. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 17

16 Crude Oil More indecisiveness with Crude Oil as well. Intraday, Crude Oil declined to a new low for the move, but it also remains at oversold levels which continues to make conditions ripe for a bounce and Tuesday s shortterm buy signal remains intact. On Thursday, we also saw the completion of anther daily swing high, which suggests the bounce has run its course. Any further advance above Wednesday s high will serve to reconfirm Tuesday s short-term buy signal whereas any further weakness in the wake of Thursday s completion of a daily swing high will be suggestive that the opportunity for the bounce has been lost. A daily swing low will be completed on Friday if holds and if is bettered. At a higher level, the seasonal and 3-year cycle tops are in place and the intermediate-term sell signal remains intact. Therefore, any further bounce from current levels should be counter-trend Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved timwood1@cyclesman.com Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 18

17 Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 19