Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. March 29, Daily CTI. Swing

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1 Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on March 29, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Positive Low Negative High Transports Positive Low Negative High NDX Negative Low Positive High S&P Inverse Fund Negative N/A * Negative High CRB Index Positive Low Positive High Gold Negative High Negative Low XAU Negative High Positive Low Dollar Positive Low Negative Low Bonds Negative High Positive Low Crude Oil Positive Low Positive Low Unleaded Negative Low Positive Low Natural Gas Negative High Negative High *Since this fund is quoted at the end of the day it is impossible for the concept of swing highs and lows to apply on a daily level. The primary interests here are the weekly developments. The daily is representative of the short-term and the weekly is representative of the intermediate-term Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 3

2 Short-term Updates Note on the Cycle Turn Indicator The most important indicator we have is the Cycle Turn Indicator and the most important timeframe, at least in my mind, is the intermediate-term. This indicator has proven itself time and time again. In reality, this is all we really need to know. Everything else is secondary. That being said, please be sure to monitor the "Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary" above. Red indicates that a swing high and down turn of the Cycle Turn Indicator has occurred and lower prices should follow. The only exception here is that on the daily stock market signals we also want to see both the slow cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. Yellow, is cautionary meaning that the Cycle Turn Indicator and the swing are not in agreement, which is typically indicative of a trend change. Green, means that a swing low has occurred and that the Cycle Turn Indicator is positive, which should be followed by higher prices. Again, the only exception here is the daily stock market signals in that we want to see both the slow Cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. For everything else, all that matters is the formation of a swing and the direction of the Cycle Turn Indicator. All subscribers who do not understand cyclical translation should click here "Notes for New Subscribers." It is important that you read and understand the content found in both of the PDF files that you will find at this link. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 4

3 Stocks End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) CTI on Rydex Tempest Fund * Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Advance/Decline Issues Diff New High New Low Diff Secondary Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator *When this indictor is it is negative for the market and visa versa. March 31, 2019 Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy/Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Slow Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) New High/New Low Differential Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) McClellan Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) McClellan Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator (ITVM) McClellan Summation Index McClellan Volume Summation Index Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator Trading Cycle Oscillator Momentum Indicator Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator Crossover Accumulation/Distribution Index The price action on Friday completed the formation of a daily swing low on the Industrials that was confirmed by an upturn of ALL Three of the Primary Short-Term Indicators. In doing so, a short-term buy signal was triggered. We also saw a short-term buy signal on the AMEX and the FTSE, but not the NYSE, the Russell 2000, the CAC or the DAX. While a short-term buy signal was triggered on the Industrials, the price action this past week also completed the formation of another weekly swing high and the previously triggered intermediate-term sell signal remains intact as the intermediate-term cycle top continues trying to take hold. The timing band for the trading cycle low runs between March 22nd and April 12th. I discussed Thursday night that the oscillator picture was suggestive of a low, but the cyclical phasing and structure is not suggestive of it having marked the trading cycle low. Reason being, the timing band for the last trading cycle low ran between February 6th and February 26th and the only qualifying daily swing low within that timeframe occurred on February 8th. The March 11th daily swing low fell way outside of this timing band, so it did not mark the trading cycle low. Rather, it fell 20 trading days into the trading cycle and with Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 5

4 the less dominant half-trading cycle averaging 19 trading days, we can only assume that the March 11th low marked the half-trading cycle low. Also, looking at other indexes and sectors, Auto, XAL, XBD, BKX, etc., this appears to be the phasing at play. The other issue on the Industrials is that the high point for the advance out of the February 8th daily swing low was seen 10 trading days later, which gives this trading cycle a left-translated structure. As a result, this means that with the March 11th low having occurred above the February 8th low, it is not structurally correct to have marked the trading cycle low because by definition, left-translated cycles move below their previous trading cycle low. Furthermore, with the March 25th daily swing low occurring at a level above the March 11th daily swing low it is not structurally correct to have marked the trading cycle low either. Therefore, the current structure continues to be suggestive of the trading cycle low lying ahead. The only other possibility would be for the March 11th low to have marked an extremely short trading cycle, which with a correction of the current left-translated structure of the Industrials could perhaps mandate such phasing. If so, it would be a forced and unorthodox phasing, which I will discuss more in the event it becomes applicable. Regardless of how this phasing proves to work out, current structure suggests that the trading cycle low should still lie ahead and this choppy behavior is a result of the intermediate-term cycle top that is trying to take hold, but short-term we do have another buy signal. Gold completed the formation of a daily swing high on Wednesday, per the parameters given in the Tuesday night update. In doing so, a short-term sell signal was triggered and with Friday being an inside day, there were no changes. The trading cycle top in Gold should be in place and price has not yet moved into the timing band for the trading cycle low. The XAU triggered a short-term sell signal on Thursday and with Friday being an inside day, there were no changes there either. As with Equities, Crude Oil also re-triggered another short-term buy signal on Friday. Also as with Equities, the choppy back and forth price action is a result of the intermediate-term cycle top that is trying to take hold. Another short-term buy signal was also re-triggered on the CRB Index on Friday, but with price reversing off of the high, this buy signal is questionable and the price action this past week has put another weekly swing high into motion. Here too, an intermediate-term cycle top is in the making and trying to take hold. The short-term buy signal in the Dollar remains intact and, thus far, the evidence continues to be suggestive of a slightly early trading cycle low. This remains an important juncture for the Dollar and we must now see the current/pending trading cycle advance unfold with a right-translated structure. Otherwise, it will leave the Dollar positioned for further weakness into the seasonal cycle low. We have known that the 30-year Bond was pressing into its trading cycle top and on Friday a short-term sell signal was triggered. As a result, the trading cycle top should be in place. Yield on the 3 and 5-year Bond ticked up slightly on Friday, but this should be a countertrend advance in conjunction with the trading cycle top in Bonds. Sharp breaks in yields were also seen in conjunction with the 2000 and the 2007 tops and in light of the evidence with regard to the intermediate-term cycle top, this continues to be a warning sign for Equities. In both 2000 and 2007, we also saw sharp declines in the 90 day T-Bill yield. Thus far, the T-Bill continues to hold, but it is now in a position to also begin to soften. My hunch is that if/when the T-Bill rate begins to soften, it will be an even greater warning to Equities. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 6

5 Below I have included an overlay of the 3-year yield with the Industrials. It is not the weakening of these short-term yields alone that seems to be significant. It is the underlying cyclical structure of Equities and the overall setup in association with the breakdown in yield that is significant. The fact that yield has moved below its previous years low and that it has continued to weaken, even in the face of the advance out of the December low, is another trait that was also seen in conjunction with the 2000 and 2007 top. Maybe this time is different, but at very minimum, this is a clear warning until that proves to be the case. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 7

6 Next I have again included the current monthly chart along with the stochasticized CTI, which remains on a sell signal with the Trend Indicator below its trigger line. Such setup was also seen in conjunction with the 2001 and 2008 counter-trend rallies. Maybe this time will also be different here as well, but until that proves to be the case, this is another clear warning that should not be ignored. I also want to remind you that this indicator is also on a sell signal on a Quarterly basis, which is another indication of the 4-year cycle top. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 8

7 Below is our distribution indicator. The red intermediate-term Advancing issues line is tied to the intermediate-term cycle, which continues turning up, which suggests that the short-term advance may not be done. The green MA line continues to weaken, which continues to serve as another indication of the intermediate-term cycle top. The black MA line continues to weaken as well. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 9

8 The Trading Cycle Oscillator in the upper window remains positive. The Momentum indicator in the upper window has turned up above its zero line. The stochastic in the middle window continues turning up as well. As stated in the last update, these indicators were suggestive of a low, but as discussed above, the structure does not support it. Therefore, until hard evidence proves otherwise, the expectation is that the trading cycle low should still lie ahead. The first of our Primary Short-Term Indicators is the New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price, which has ticked back up. The Trend Indicator remains below its trigger line. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 10

9 The Three Primary Short-Term Indicators are the Original and the Slow Cycle Turn Indicators, both plotted below, and the NYSE New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price above. Bottom line, on Friday a daily swing low was completed and confirmed by an upturn of ALL Three of the Primary Short-Term Indicators, which in turn triggered a short-term buy signal. This buy signal will remain intact until another daily swing high and downturn of the Primary indicators is seen, but the trading cycle low should also still lie ahead and thus far, we also still have an intermediate-term sell signal in place as the intermediate-term cycle top continues trying to take hold. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 11

10 The Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator remains marginally below its trigger line. The Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator has ticked marginally back above its trigger line. Overall, the oscillator behavior continues to be reflective of the trading and what should also ideally prove to be the intermediate-term cycle top as well. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 12

11 The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes are also used to measure the intermediate- term internals. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator in the upper window is shorter-term in nature and is therefore used to help identify the shorter-term tops and bottoms, but it is also useful in identifying intermediate-term cycle tops and bottoms. Both the McClellan Summation Index and the McClellan Volume Summation Index have ticked ever so slightly up. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator remains above its trigger line, which makes it positive as we use it. A cross back below the trigger line should be indicative of the resumption of the decline into the trading cycle low. Until then, higher prices will remain possible. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 13

12 Next is the Smoothed McClellan Oscillator, which has turned back up above its trigger line. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 14

13 The Accumulation/Distribution Index ticked up on Tuesday and remains above its trigger line, but on Friday it ticked down. A cross back below the trigger line will be suggestive of lower prices in association with what should be the resumption of the decline into the trading cycle low. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 15

14 Our weekly chart of the Industrials is next. Price reversed off of the lows this past week, but the price action also put another weekly swing high into motion and the previously triggered intermediate-term sell signal remains intact. The timing band for the next intermediate-term cycle low runs between April 19th and June 21st. Based on this approaching timing band, the accompanying price/oscillator picture and intermediateterm sell signal, this top should ideally be in place, but we still need to see further structural confirmation. In the meantime, based on the ongoing intermediate-term sell signal and the accompanying price/oscillator picture, until the market can prove itself otherwise, the assumption will continue to be that the intermediateterm cycle top has been seen on the Industrials. I have continued to leave the dark blue scenario on the weekly chart below because while this top has taken its sweet time, until the market can prove this scenario invalid with the forcing of one of the other alternatives, it stands. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 16

15 Gold End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Buy/Neutral Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The trading cycle low was seen on March 7th. The March 27th short-term sell signal remains intact and the timing band for the next trading cycle low runs between April 2nd and April 26th. Friday was an inside day, so there were no changes with Gold. The current price/oscillator picture and short-term sell signal suggest that we should see further overall weakness into the timing band for this low as the oscillators are pulled to oversold levels. At a higher level, more confirmation of the seasonal cycle top is needed, but until Gold can prove otherwise, the assumption will continue to be that the higher degree seasonal cycle advance out of the August low has run its course. The intermediate-term cycle low is due with either the recent trading cycle low or the next. More on that once we see what the structure of this trading cycle yields, but as of now the evidence suggests that the intermediateterm cycle low was seen in conjunction with the last trading cycle low and that we now have a failed and lefttranslated intermediateterm cycle in the making. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 17

16 Our daily chart of the XAU is next and there too, Friday was an inside day, which resulted in no changes. As with Gold, the advance out of the March 7th trading cycle low was/is expected to be counter-trend and Thursday s short-term sell signal remains intact. Once a weekly swing high and downturn of the weekly CTI is seen, an intermediate-term sell signal will be triggered and the assumption will be that the higher degree cycle top has also been seen here as well. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 18

17 Next is our weekly chart of Gold. The intermediate-term cycle low was last seen the week of November 16th and the intermediate-term cycle top was seen the week of February 22nd. The timing band for the intermediate-term cycle low runs between March 8th and April 26th. The March 8th weekly swing low remains intact and while price reversed off the weekly highs this past week, we did see an upturn of the weekly CTI, plotted with price, which triggered an intermediate-term buy signal. I have ideally wanted to see another trading cycle down into the intermediate-term cycle low, but now as a result of the triggering of the intermediate-term buy signal this past week, we may have seen the intermediate-term cycle low. If so, given the price reversal seen this past week, Gold is now at risk of a left-translated intermediate-term cycle top. Any further weakness in the coming week that completes the formation of a weekly swing high will be further suggestive of this having been the case. The alternative is that we are seeing another trading cycle down into the intermediate-term cycle low as I originally wanted to see. The phasing will clarify itself as we move into the next trading cycle, but until Gold can prove otherwise, the assumption is that the intermediateterm cycle low has been seen and it is now at risk of failing. At a higher level, based on the evidence with regard to the 9-year cycle top, the expectation has been for the advance out of the August seasonal cycle low to be counter-trend and current evidence is suggestive of the February high having marked the seasonal cycle top. A weekly swing high will be completed in the coming week if 1, is not bettered and if 1, is violated. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 19

18 The weekly chart of the XAU is next. As with Gold, the March 8th weekly swing low remains intact and here too, in spite of the price reversal seen this past week, the upturn of the weekly CTI triggered an intermediate-term buy signal. Therefore, as with Gold, until the XAU can prove otherwise, we will operate under the assumption that the intermediate-term cycle low has been seen and that the XAU is at risk of an intermediate failure. A weekly swing high will be completed on the XAU in the coming week if is not bettered and if is violated. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 20

19 Dollar End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic With the Dollar moving marginally higher on Friday, the previously triggered short-term buy signal remains intact so there have been no changes with the Dollar. The last confirmed trading cycle low was seen on February 28th and the timing band for the current trading cycle low runs between March 26th and April 9th. Because of the higher degree cycle low, we have been and will continue to give the Dollar the benefit of the doubt with regard to the potential of an early trading cycle low. The March 20th daily swing low was a few days early for the trading cycle low but, when steep declines are seen it is not unusual to see the decline into the cycle low burn out a little early and we have seen a couple of early trading cycle lows recently. Until the Dollar proves otherwise, we will continue to assume this is what has occurred and further strength into the end of this next week will seal the deal on this having been an early trading cycle low. On the other hand, in the event there should prove to be another push down below the March 20th low, while the Dollar is within this timing band, then we will at that time have to assume that we have seen an additional push down within the normal timing band for the trading cycle low. Bottom line, confirmation of the trading cycle low remains at hand and regardless of whether the low is in place or if there is another push down into the low, this trading cycle advance must unfold with a right-translated structure. Continued strength as we approach the end of this timing band will be suggestive of the trading cycle low having occurred early, while a move below the March 20th low would be suggestive of a final probe into the trading cycle low. More on this as it develops. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 21

20 Next is our weekly Dollar chart. The timing band for the last intermediate-term cycle low ran between January 11th and March 1st and this low was seen the week of January 11th. The week of March 22nd, price completed the formation of a weekly swing high and as a result of the downturn of the weekly CTI, an intermediate-term sell signal was triggered, which put the Dollar at risk of a left-translated intermediateterm cycle top. Until the March trading cycle top is bettered, this risk will not be mended, but with the price action this past week completing the formation of a weekly swing low, the opportunity to mend this potential risk is now in the making. Any further advance in the coming week that turns the weekly CTI up will retrigger another intermediate-term buy signal. As discussed here last week, most cycles tend to have a less dominate half cycle and the Dollar also tends to do a deep retest of its seasonal cycle low in conjunction with either the intermediate-term cycle low following the seasonal cycle low or the following half count of the intermediate-term cycle low. Therefore, this may well be what we have seen in conjunction with the decline into the March 20th daily swing low. That said, while the sell signal at this level still remains in place and the risk here of a left-translated top has not yet been mended, I want to continue to give the Dollar the benefit of the doubt until we can see what the structure of the current/next trading cycle yields. If this trading cycle can unfold with a right-translated structure, then this was probably just a little deeper decline into the intermediate-term half cycle and retest of the seasonal cycle low. However, if this advance should stall and the Dollar moves below the March 20th low, before price moves through the remainder of the timing band for this trading cycle low, then every indication will be that we have seen a left-translated intermediate-term cycle top, which will leave the Dollar positioned for another intermediate-term cycle down into the higher degree seasonal cycle low. I said here in last weekend s update that if this was simply a decline into the halfintermediate-term cycle low, the first step toward confirming that would be the completion of a weekly swing low and per the parameters given here in last weekend s update, a weekly swing low is now in place. More on this as it develops. A weekly swing high will be completed in the coming week if is not bettered and if is violated. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 22

21 Bonds End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The advance out of the March 1st trading cycle low had moved into the early portion of the timing band for the current trading cycle low and we knew that the oscillator picture was ripe for the top. But, we needed to see the completion of a daily swing high and downturn of the daily CTI in order to trigger a short-term sell signal in association with this trading cycle top. On Friday this was seen and the trading cycle top should be in place. The timing band for the next trading cycle low runs between March 22nd and April 12th and the decline into this low should be counter-trend. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 23

22 Our weekly chart of Bonds is next and the timing band for the intermediate-term cycle low runs between February 1st and April 19th. Based on this phasing, we have known that the intermediate-term cycle low was ideally due in conjunction with either the previous trading cycle low or that we should see it in conjunction with one more trading cycle down. We have known that the evidence was suggestive of the low having been seen in conjunction with the March 1st trading cycle low, which we have assumed was the case, but as discussed in the last several updates, we needed to see further confirmation of this low, which we saw the week of March 22nd in association with the upturn of the weekly CTI, plotted with price, and the associated intermediate-term buy signal. The continued advance this past week only serves as further evidence that our assumption with regard to this low having been seen on March 1st was in fact correct. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 24

23 Crude Oil As with Equities, the choppy price action here in association with what should be an intermediate-term cycle top in the making also continues. The price action on Tuesday completed the formation of a daily swing low that was reconfirmed by another upturn of the daily CTI, which re-triggered another short-term buy signal. On Wednesday another daily swing high formed and confirmed by another downturn of the daily CTI, which triggered another short-term sell signal. On Thursday Crude Oil moved lower, but reversed off the lows and on Friday another daily swing low, per the parameters given here on Thursday night was seen and with the accompanying upturn of the CTI, yet another short-term buy signal was triggered. As with Equities, this leaves Crude Oil positioned to move higher, but overall the trading and intermediate-term cycle top should be in the making. For now, this short-term buy signal will stand until another daily swing high and downturn of the daily CTI is seen. A daily swing high will be completed on Monday if is not bettered and if is violated. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 25

24 Our weekly chart of Crude Oil is next and there has been no change at this level in that the intermediateterm buy signal and advance out of the December low still remain intact. The divergent stochastic from overbought levels continues to be suggestive of an intermediate-term cycle top, but we need to see a short-term sell signal that is followed by the completion of a weekly swing high and the triggering of an intermediate-term sell signal as evidence this top has been seen. A weekly swing high will be completed in the coming week if is not bettered and if is violated. Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 26

25 Gasoline Wednesday s short-term sell signal remains intact and below is a weekly chart of Gasoline. Here too, the oscillator picture is extremely ripe for a top. Once a weekly swing high is formed and confirmed by a downturn of the weekly CTI, the intermediate-term cycle top should also be in place here as well. This will occur in the coming week if 1.98 is not bettered and if 1.82 is violated. The developments here are also reflective of the top in Crude Oil, as well as Equities, and here too is also an opportunity to cap the intermediate-term advance out of the December low Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved timwood1@cyclesman.com Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 27

26 Copyright 2019 by Tim Wood 28