Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. November 20, Daily CTI. Swing

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1 Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on November 20, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Negative High Negative High Transports Negative High Neutral High NDX Negative High Negative High S&P Inverse Fund Positive N/A * Negative Low CRB Index Negative High Negative High Gold Positive Low Negative Low XAU Negative High Positive Low Dollar Negative High Negative High Bonds Positive Low Positive Low Crude Oil Negative High Negative High Unleaded Negative High Negative High Natural Gas Negative High Positive Low *Since this fund is quoted at the end of the day it is impossible for the concept of swing highs and lows to apply on a daily level. The primary interests here are the weekly developments. The daily is representative of the short-term and the weekly is representative of the intermediate-term Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 3

2 Short-term Updates Note on the Cycle Turn Indicator The most important indicator we have is the Cycle Turn Indicator and the most important timeframe, at least in my mind, is the intermediate-term. This indicator has proven itself time and time again. In reality, this is all we really need to know. Everything else is secondary. That being said, please be sure to monitor the "Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary" above. Red indicates that a swing high and down turn of the Cycle Turn Indicator has occurred and lower prices should follow. The only exception here is that on the daily stock market signals we also want to see both the slow cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. Yellow, is cautionary meaning that the Cycle Turn Indicator and the swing are not in agreement, which is typically indicative of a trend change. Green, means that a swing low has occurred and that the Cycle Turn Indicator is positive, which should be followed by higher prices. Again, the only exception here is the daily stock market signals in that we want to see both the slow Cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. For everything else, all that matters is the formation of a swing and the direction of the Cycle Turn Indicator. All subscribers who do not understand cyclical translation should click here "Notes for New Subscribers." It is important that you read and understand the content found in both of the PDF files that you will find at this link. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 4

3 Stocks End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) CTI on Rydex Tempest Fund * Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Advance/Decline Issues Diff New High New Low Diff Secondary Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator *When this indictor is it is negative for the market and visa versa. November 20, 2018 Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Slow Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) New High/New Low Differential Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) McClellan Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) McClellan Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator (ITVM) McClellan Summation Index McClellan Volume Summation Index Secondary Short Term Indicators With Thursday being Thanksgiving in the US, I will not do a Thursday night update Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator Trading Cycle Oscillator Momentum Indicator Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator Crossover Accumulation/Distribution Index In spite of Friday s completion of a daily swing low on the Industrials, the S&P 500 and the NYSE, our shortterm sell signal remained intact and on Monday we saw the completion of another daily swing high. I remind you that the price action last week re-triggered an intermediate-term sell signal and that while there has been some question as to whether the October 29th low marked the intermediate-term cycle low, the evidence has been increasingly suggestive that it did and we have been operating under the assumption that it did. The battle to hold this low is not over yet, but at this juncture I have to give the nod to the bear, particularly with the NDX and the AMEX having given way to their October lows. As I have said all along, the Industrials and the S&P 500 have been the hold out, which have provided cover for the higher degree setup that has been slowly taking form. This remains an extremely important and risky juncture. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 5

4 The short-term buy signal on Gold remains intact, but the counter-trend top should now be close at hand. On the XAU, a short-term sell signal was triggered on Tuesday and the counter-trend top there should be in place, which suggests that Gold should follow. The short and intermediate term sell signals in Crude Oil remain intact and the continued weakness is reflective of the higher degree seasonal and 3-year cycle tops. The short-term bounce in the CRB Index has failed, as was anticipated, and both the short and intermediateterm are again in gear to the downside. The Dollar reversed off of its lows on Tuesday and in spite of the absence of a short-term buy signal, this should have ideally marked the trading cycle low, which we will assume was the case until proven otherwise. The short-term buy signal in Bonds remains intact and the bettering of the previous trading cycle top is now further suggestive of the October low having marked the intermediate-term cycle low. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 6

5 The first chart below shows our distribution indicator. The red intermediate-term Advancing issues line is tied to the intermediate-term cycle, which continues to weaken. I have said before that the cross above the black MA line was suggestive of the October low having marked the intermediate-term cycle low and the upturn of the green line above the black is further evidence to that effect. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 7

6 The Trading Cycle Oscillator in the upper window remains negative. The Momentum indicator in the upper window remains below its trigger line. The stochastic in the middle window has ticked back down. The first of our Primary Short-Term Indicators is the New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price, which has also turned back down. The Trend Indicator continues to weaken after crossing back below its trigger line. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 8

7 The Three Primary Short-Term Indicators are the Original and the Slow Cycle Turn Indicators, both plotted below, and the NYSE New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price above. Bottom line, the short-term sell signal remains in force and will continue to do so until a daily swing low and upturn of ALL Three of the Primary Short-Term Indicators is seen. In the meantime, the risk continues to be of a left-translated trading and intermediate-term cycle top, which, until proven otherwise, we have to assume is in the making. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 9

8 Both the Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator and the Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator are again in gear to the downside. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 10

9 The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes are also used to measure the intermediate- term internals. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator in the upper window is shorter-term in nature and is therefore used to help identify the shorter-term tops and bottoms, but it is also useful in identifying intermediate-term cycle tops and bottoms. Both the McClellan Summation Index and the McClellan Volume Summation Index have also turned back down. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator also continues to weaken and the overall price/oscillator picture continues to warn of a failed and left-translated trading and intermediate-term cycle top. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 11

10 Next is the Smoothed McClellan Oscillator, which has crossed back below its trigger line. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 12

11 The Accumulation/Distribution Index has turned marginally back below its trigger line. In Summary, Friday s daily swing low was an opportunity to bounce and obviously that opportunity was lost on the back of the on going short-term sell signal and the retriggering of the intermediate-term sell signal we saw in conjunction with last week s close. All in all, Equities remain at risk of both a failed and lefttranslated trading and intermediate-term cycle. Further structural confirmation of these potential failures is still required, but based on the current price/oscillator picture and the accompanying cyclical phasing, this setup is certainly on the table. Until we see structural evidence to negate or at least neutralize the current price/oscillator picture, the market is vulnerable and the risk here is high. Bigger picture, per the list in the November research letter, the 4-year cycle top should be in place and while the Industrials are expected to follow, the setup there is not yet complete. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 13

12 Gold End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The advance out of the November 13th daily swing low has carried price to overbought levels. As a result of the violation of the October 31st trading cycle low, the structure has been suggestive that the advance out of November 13th daily swing low should be counter-trend. Given this structure, the overbought oscillator picture, along with Tuesday s price reversal, this counter-trend advance should ideally be at or near a top. Any further weakness that completes the formation of a daily swing high, which is also confirmed by a downturn of the daily CTI, will trigger a short-term sell signal, which will leave Gold set up for continued weakness into the next trading cycle low. The timing band for the next trading cycle low runs between November 26th and December 10th and a daily swing high will be completed on Wednesday if 1, is not bettered and if 1, is violated. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 14

13 Next is our daily chart of the XAU, which also violated its October 31st trading cycle low in conjunction with the decline into the November 13th daily swing low. Consequently, as with Gold, the expectation has been for the advance out of the November 13th high to be counter-trend. On Tuesday the XAU completed the formation of a daily swing high that was confirmed by a downturn of the daily CTI, which triggered a shortterm sell signal, which in turn suggests that the counter-trend advance has run is course. This is also indicative of the counter-trend top in Gold and the expectation is that Gold will follow. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 15

14 Dollar End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic The timing band for the trading cycle low runs between November 9th and November 23rd. The assumption has been that the trading cycle top was seen on November 12th and that the Dollar has since been pressing down into the trading cycle low. As a result of the price reversal seen on Tuesday, this low has probably been seen, but we need to see the completion of a daily swing low and upturn of the daily CTI in order to trigger a short-term buy signal in association with this low. The alternative phasing here is that the November 7th daily swing low marked a slightly early trading cycle low, which in this case would leave the Dollar at risk of a left-translated trading cycle top. This possibility is becoming increasing less likely, but we need to get through this timing band and we need to see bettered. At the intermediate level, we now have a weekly swing high in place, so we have to see this mended in order to negate the possibility of the intermediate-term cycle top. More on that as this develops. Looking at the short-term price/oscillator picture, the decline carried price to oversold levels and in light of the cyclical phasing of the trading cycle and price reversal seen on Tuesday, the Dollar is positioned for higher prices. Failure to seize this opportunity will be indicative of the intermediate-term cycle top. A daily swing low will be completed on Wednesday if holds and if is bettered. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 16

15 Bonds End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The short-term buy signal and advance out of the November 7th trading cycle low remains intact and has finally carried price above the October 29th trading cycle top. In doing so, this serves to further confirm the October low as having marked the intermediate-term cycle low. But still, with the October trading cycle low having marked the intermediate-term cycle low, this trading cycle advance needs to better the previous trading cycle top and it still needs to unfold with a right-translated structure, which means that we ideally still need another few days up before the trading cycle top is seen. Bottom line, the October low did in fact mark the intermediate-term cycle low and both the short and intermediate-term buy signals remain intact. At a higher level, this intermediateterm advance should still prove to be counter-trend. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 17

16 Crude Oil The short-term bounce that was trying to take hold failed to gain any traction and on Tuesday we saw the longer-term violation of the support line that goes back to The October 4th short-term sell signal has continued to hold as has the intermediate-term sell signal that followed. At a higher level, this continued weakness is a result of the higher degree seasonal and 3-year cycle tops. Bottom line, the opportunity for a bounce has failed and the current short-term price/oscillator picture suggests that even lower prices should follow. On a side note, Gasoline is now at a 17 month low. No question about it, Crude Oil did not want to give way to the 3-year cycle top, but when it did, it came quickly. Natural Gas should follow Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved timwood1@cyclesman.com Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 18

17 Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 19