Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. January 22, Daily CTI. Swing

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1 Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on January 22, 2019 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Neutral High Positive Low Transports Positive Low Positive Low NDX Neutral High Positive Low S&P Inverse Fund Negative N/A * Negative High CRB Index Negative High Positive Low Gold Negative High Negative High XAU Negative High Negative High Dollar Positive Low Negative Low Bonds Negative Low Negative High Crude Oil Positive Low Positive Low Unleaded Negative High Positive Low Natural Gas Negative High Negative High *Since this fund is quoted at the end of the day it is impossible for the concept of swing highs and lows to apply on a daily level. The primary interests here are the weekly developments. The daily is representative of the short-term and the weekly is representative of the intermediate-term Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 3

2 Short-term Updates Note on the Cycle Turn Indicator The most important indicator we have is the Cycle Turn Indicator and the most important timeframe, at least in my mind, is the intermediate-term. This indicator has proven itself time and time again. In reality, this is all we really need to know. Everything else is secondary. That being said, please be sure to monitor the "Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary" above. Red indicates that a swing high and down turn of the Cycle Turn Indicator has occurred and lower prices should follow. The only exception here is that on the daily stock market signals we also want to see both the slow cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. Yellow, is cautionary meaning that the Cycle Turn Indicator and the swing are not in agreement, which is typically indicative of a trend change. Green, means that a swing low has occurred and that the Cycle Turn Indicator is positive, which should be followed by higher prices. Again, the only exception here is the daily stock market signals in that we want to see both the slow Cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. For everything else, all that matters is the formation of a swing and the direction of the Cycle Turn Indicator. All subscribers who do not understand cyclical translation should click here "Notes for New Subscribers." It is important that you read and understand the content found in both of the PDF files that you will find at this link. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 4

3 Stocks End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Buy/Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) CTI on Rydex Tempest Fund * Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Advance/Decline Issues Diff New High New Low Diff Secondary Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator *When this indictor is it is negative for the market and visa versa. January 22, 2019 Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Slow Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) New High/New Low Differential Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) McClellan Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) McClellan Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator (ITVM) McClellan Summation Index McClellan Volume Summation Index Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic Cycle Momentum Indicator Trading Cycle Oscillator Momentum Indicator Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator Crossover Accumulation/Distribution Index The Industrials completed the formation of a daily swing high on Tuesday, which is an opportunity to cap this trading cycle advance. With only two of the three Primary Short-Term Indicators having turned down, a short-term sell signal was not triggered. Any further weakness from here that turns the slow CTI down will trigger a short-term sell signal. Then, if we see the completion of a weekly swing high in association with the decline that follows, the evidence will at that time be suggestive of the trading and intermediate-term cycle top as well. In short, this is a technical juncture/opportunity to cap the advance, which again leaves the market at a critical and risky juncture. More on all of this as the short-term sell signal develops. We have finally seen a short-term sell signal in Gold in association with the anticipated trading cycle top and so far this week the price action is also trying to set an intermediate-term sell signal into motion as well. The short and intermediate-term sell signal in the XAU remain intact. Short-term, both Gold and the XAU should be nearing their trading cycle lows. Crude Oil should be at its trading cycle top and any further Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 5

4 weakness in the wake of Tuesday s price reversal that triggers a short-term sell signal should serve to confirm that top. A short-term sell signal was triggered in Gasoline and the expectation is that Crude Oil will follow. A short-term sell signal was also triggered on the CRB Index, which is suggestive of the trading cycle top and which is an opportunity to also cap the intermediate-term advance there as well. Upon the completion of a weekly swing high, the evidence will be suggestive of that top. The short-term buy signal on the Dollar remains intact and until proven otherwise the assumption is that an early trading cycle low was seen. With Bonds, the price/oscillator picture is extremely ripe for the trading cycle low and any further advance on Wednesday that turns the daily CTI up will trigger a short-term buy signal, which should in turn confirm the suspected trading cycle low. Below is our distribution indicator. The red intermediate-term Advancing issues line is tied to the intermediate-term cycle, which after violating its October low, bettered its December high and which is now turning back down. Looking back into the 1920 s, there are limited occurrences of such patterns. Of the dozen or so patterns I found, a couple of them were associated with lows, but the vast majority were associated with counter-trend advances that were followed by lower lows. The green MA line has crossed above the black MA line. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 6

5 The Trading Cycle Oscillator in the upper window remains slightly above its trigger line. The Momentum indicator in the upper window remains above its zero line. The stochastic in the middle window is again turning back down from overbought levels. The first of our Primary Short-Term Indicators is the New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price, which has ticked back down. Overall, these indicators are suggestive of the trading cycle top. The Trend Indicator remains positive in association with the advance out of trading cycle low. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 7

6 The Three Primary Short-Term Indicators are the Original and the Slow Cycle Turn Indicators, both plotted below, and the NYSE New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price above. Bottom line, the expectation continues to be that the advance out of the December 26th low is counter-trend and now that we have a daily swing high in place, Equities are in a position in which the opportunity for the trading cycle top is at hand. Any further weakness that turns ALL Three of the Primary Short-Term Indicators down, will trigger a short-term sell signal, which will put the market in an increasingly risky position with regard to the setup for the decline into the higher degree cycle lows. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 8

7 Both the Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator and the Intermediate Term Volume Momentum Oscillator remain above their trigger lines in association with the advance out of the trading cycle low. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 9

8 The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes are also used to measure the intermediate- term internals. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator in the upper window is shorter-term in nature and is therefore used to help identify the shorter-term tops and bottoms, but it is also useful in identifying intermediate-term cycle tops and bottoms. Both the McClellan Summation Index and the McClellan Volume Summation Index also remain positive in association with their upturn out of the trading cycle low. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator has turned back below its trigger line, which is suggestive of the trading cycle top. The triggering of a short-term sell signal should now serve to confirm that the trading cycle top has been seen. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 10

9 Next is the Smoothed McClellan Oscillator, which also remains well above its trigger line in association with the upturn out of the December low. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 11

10 The Accumulation/Distribution Index has turned back down, which is also suggestive of the trading cycle top. In summary, short of another market miracle the advance out of the December low should be counter-trend and the higher degree intermediate-term, seasonal and 4-year cycle low should still lie ahead. The opportunity to cap this intermediate-term advance will come with the triggering of a short-term sell signal and now that a daily swing high is in place, along with the accompanying oscillator picture, conditions are conducive of this top, which puts the market in a risky position. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 12

11 Gold End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Neutral Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell/Neutral Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The timing band for the trading cycle low runs between January 11th and January 25th. Based on the price/ oscillator picture, the assumption has been that the trading cycle top was seen on January 4th and that the decline into the low is underway. A daily swing high was finally completed on Tuesday, which in turn triggered a short-term sell signal. With price approaching the outer portion of the timing band for the trading cycle low, this low should be near. But, based on the oscillator picture, the decline into this low should have a ways to go in that we should ideally see the stochastic drawn down to oversold levels. That said, once a daily swing low is formed and confirmed by an upturn of the daily CTI, the trading cycle low should be in place. This trading cycle top is an opportunity to cap the intermediate-term and what should be a counter-trend advance out of the August low. More on that once the trading cycle low is seen. A daily swing low will be completed on Wednesday if 1, holds and if 1, is bettered. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 13

12 Our daily chart of the XAU is next. The January 10th short-term sell signal remains intact and we should now be approaching the trading cycle low. Once a daily swing low and upturn of the daily CTI is seen, we will have to assume that low is in place. Until then, lower prices should not be ruled out. This trading cycle top is also an opportunity to cap the higher degree intermediate-term cycle advance. But, as further evidence of that higher degree cycle top we next need to see a joint intermediate-term sell signal in Gold and then a failed trading cycle advance in both Gold and the XAU. A daily swing low will be completed on Wednesday if holds and if is bettered. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 14

13 Dollar End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Neutral/Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Buy Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic The timing band for the trading cycle low runs between January 14th and January 25th. The January 15th short-term buy signal remains intact and every indication is that the low was seen on January 9th. If the Dollar holds above the January 9th daily swing low as we move through the remainder of this timing band it will serve to confirm that an early trading cycle low was in fact seen. If this trading cycle peaks with a lefttranslated structure, it will leave the Dollar set up for another trading cycle down into the intermediate-term cycle low. To the contrary, in the event this trading cycle advance peaks with a right-translated structure, then it should prove that the intermediate-term cycle low was seen on January 9th. Bottom line, the shortterm buy signal will stand until another daily swing high and downturn of the daily CTI is seen and the assumption is that the trading cycle low is in place. A daily swing high will be completed on Wednesday if is not bettered and if is violated. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 15

14 Bonds End of Week Intermediate-Term Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Indicators Stochastic Daily Indicator Summary Short-Term Sell Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI) Confirming Indicators Trend Indicator (TI) Cycle Momentum Indicator Secondary Short Term Indicators Stochastic The timing band for the now due trading cycle low runs between January 4th and January 25th. The price oscillator picture is now perfectly positioned for the trading cycle low, which as a result of the completion of a daily swing low on Tuesday, should be in place. Any further advance that turns the daily CTI up will trigger a short-term buy signal, which should serve to confirm this low. Then, in order to mend the potential of an intermediate-term cycle top, the advance out of this trading cycle low must unfold with a right-translated structure and it must better the previous trading cycle top. Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 16

15 Crude Oil The oscillator picture has been ripe for a top, but on Friday we saw another push up in association with what is expected to be a counter-trend advance. Now with the price reversal seen on Tuesday and the accompanying oscillator picture, this top should now ideally be in place. That said, we need to see the completion of a daily swing high and downturn of the daily CTI in order to trigger a short-term sell signal. If the decline out of this top then completes the formation of a weekly swing high that is confirmed by a downturn of the weekly CTI, the evidence will be suggestive of the anticipated counter-trend intermediateterm cycle top. A daily swing high will be completed on Wednesday if is not bettered and if is violated Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved timwood1@cyclesman.com Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 17

16 Copyright 2018 by Tim Wood 18