Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets"

Transcription

1 Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets November 11 th, 2017

2 Monthly Investment Compass 1) Executive Summary: November 11 th, 2017 U.S. Stock Market: Unmet upside targets in several positively correlated foreign indexes and US sector related ETFs target an additional 2% to 4% rise in the US broad market between now and year end. However, recently widening corporate bond spreads, deteriorating market breadth, and contracting ETF asset flows warn of the market s vulnerability to a countertrend decline first. We would view a sustained decline below 2550 in the S&P 500 as evidence that this decline is underway. Should this decline emerge, we would view it as being countertrend and a potential buying opportunity as long as it does not exceed 6% to 8% off the all time highs. Bigger picture, unmet upside targets in several additional US stocks and foreign indexes suggest the potential for an additional 9% to 16% rise, overall, into 2 nd Quarter 2018, when US stocks seasonally peak for the summer months. Size: Large Cap stocks are amid favorable conditions to continue outperforming, potentially into year end. We are also watching Small Cap for an overweight opportunity by early next year. Style: The January trend of relative outperformance by Growth stocks remains intact. US Market Sectors: We are currently overweight Technology and Financials, and are outright positive on Financials and Health Care. Industry Groups: We have unmet upside targets in Banks and Homebuilders. Individual Stocks: We have existing long ideas in FITB, CF, NFLX, and NDAQ. US Interest Rates: 2.34% is a major inflection point in the yield of the 10 Year Treasury Note. The latest asset flows data suggest a near term move toward lower rates and rising Treasury prices, perhaps through year end. 1

3 About Asbury Research Correction Protection Model (CPM): When To Be Invested Purpose & Key Features: The model is a defensive hedge against market corrections and bear markets that can decimate investor portfolios. The model utilizes 4 quantitative inputs. The model uses the S&P 500 as a proxy for the market. The model is binary: either in the market (Risk On) or out of it (Risk Off). There are no short positions, leveraged longs, or hedging via derivatives. The model was designed to: 1) be in the market as much as possible, 3) exit on meaningful declines, and 4) quickly reenter as soon as a positive trend has been reestablished. Since 2007, the model has been in the market 74% of the time Since 2007, the model has averaged 4.6 signals per year or approximately 1 per quarter. 2

4 About Asbury Research Stock & ETF Ideas: Where To Be Invested Our model utilizes many quantitative and technical inputs to screen the entire S&P 500, plus ETFs that track US sectors and industry groups, foreign stock indexes, and commodities for special low risk/high reward opportunities. The table above displays and breaks down our 35 most recent closed out trading ideas, through , along with some performance related information in the table at right. Our methodology produces: 1> a high percentage of winning trades, 2> significantly larger winning trades than losing trades, and 3> very small drawdowns. 3

5 Price & Trend (1): No Signs Of A Top For The US Broad Market This 10 year weekly chart of the S&P 500 shows that the US broad market index is above its major trend proxies. All upside targets in US indexes have been met. This monthly chart of the S&P 500 since 1980 shows the June 2013 move above the 2000 and 2007 highs established a new, higher long term price range. 4

6 Price & Trend (2): Semis Closing In On Formidable Resistance, Watch SPX Support The market leading PHLX Semiconductor Index is just 4% away from a test of its March 2000 all time high of This is the US market s next major upside obstacle. Minor underlying support in SPX is2% below the market at Major support is 6% to 8% below the market at 2432 to

7 Intermarket Analysis (1): March Breakout In India Targets Additional 9% Rise The March resumption of the 2016 uptrend in the ishares India ETF targets an additional 9% rise to 38.00, or a total advance of 26%. The long term positive correlation between the INDA and the S&P 500 suggests that as goes India, so is likely to go the US broad market. 6

8 Intermarket Analysis (2): Switzerland Index Targets Additional 4% Advance The September resumption of the 2017 advance in the ishares MSCI Switzerland Index ETF targets an additional 4% rise to The tight positive correlation between EWL and the S&P 500 suggests that as goes the Swiss Index, so is likely to go the US broad market. 7

9 Intermarket Analysis (3): United Kingdom Index Targets Additional 3% Rise The September 11 th breakout in the ishares MSCI United Kingdom ETF targets an additional 3% rise to or a total advance of 4%. The positive correlation between EWU and the S&P 500 suggests that as goes the UK Index, so is likely to go the US broad market. 8

10 Trade Ideas: FITB, CF Target Additional 16%, 32% Advances The late September resumption of Fifth Third Bancorp s 2016 advance targets an additional 16% rise to $32.40 per share. Positively correlated to the S&P 500. The 2017 major bullish trend change in CF Industries Holdings targets an eventual, additional 32% rise to $49.00 per share. 9

11 Trade Ideas (2): NDAQ, NFLX Target Additional 9%, 13% Advances The Oct 5 th resumption of the April advance in Netflix targets an additional 13% rise to $ as long as $ holds as support. Positively correlated to SPX. Nasdaq Inc. is in a major price advance and testing major support at $ If support holds, it targets an additional 9% advance to $ Also positively correlated to SPX. 10

12 Stock & ETF Ideas: Trending Stocks With Good Risk/Reward Parameters The top portion of the table includes our current trade ideas with risk parameters. The middle portion lists our current price targets for global stock indexes. The bottom portion lists our 15 most recent closed out ideas with performance data. 11

13 Momentum: Near Term Positive, Peaking? SPX s 1 month rate of change, a near term momentum gauge, has been positive (bullish) since September 8 th and will remain so above 2561 to However, the MACD, an intermediate term momentum gauge, appears to have peaked at a previous extreme in positive momentum. Pullback coming? 12

14 Dow Theory: Near Term Negative The Dow Transports (DJTA) peaked and turned lower on October 12 th while the Dow Industrials (DJIA) have continued to new all time highs. According to Dow Theory, this non confirmation of a new high is a bearish warning signal. 13

15 ETF Asset Flows: Near Term Negative The total net assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) have just declined below their 21 day MA to indicate a trend of monthly contraction. Negative for SPX. The daily total net assets invested in the ishares Russell 2000 ETF have also contracted below their 21 day MA for the first time since August. Negative for Small Cap. 14

16 Volume: Near Term Positive On balance volume in the S&P 500 has been rising on a monthly basis since late August. Volume measures investor urgency. Rising volume indicates day to day urgency to buy and typically accompanies a healthy price advance. 15

17 Corporate Bond Spreads: Near Term Negative High yield corporate bond spreads shifted to a trend of monthly widening on October 31 st, which is near term negative for the US stock market. This chart shows the shift to monthly widening in the spread began from 30 year narrow extremes, warning this could be the start of a larger decline. 16

18 Relative Performance: Near Term Positive Junk bonds (JNK) have been underperforming the US broad market (SPY) since August 31 st (note the inverse scale in the upper panel). This has historically coincided with near term strength in the S&P 500 (lower panel). 17

19 Volatility: Near Term Negative This chart shows that the VIX is rebounding slightly from a low extreme of 10.00, indicating an extreme in investor complacency, and that previous instances of this have closely coincided with most minor declines in the S&P 500 since April. 18

20 Investor Sentiment: Near Term, Intermediate Term Negative A survey of near to intermediate term oriented futures traders has reached most bullish extremes on the S&P 500 that have previously led near term market declines. Meanwhile, a survey of intermediate to long term oriented brokerage/advisory firms is hovering at most bullish extremes, warning of an intermediate term peak. 19

21 Market Breadth: Near Term, Intermediate Term Negative The percentage of NYSE Composite stocks trading above their 40 day MA has been declining since October from frothy extremes while SPX has continued higher. Negative. The percentage of these constituents trading above their 200 day MA has been declining from frothy extremes since late 2016, indicating a weakening major price trend. 20

22 Overbought/Oversold: Near Term, Intermediate Term Negative SPX is hovering at monthly overbought extremes that have previously coincided with or closely led every minor broad market top during the past year. Meanwhile, SPX is also hovering at quarterly overbought extremes that have historically coincided with or closely led intermediate term market tops. 21

23 Seasonality: Near Term Positive, Intermediate Term Negative November and December are the 3 rd and 1 st seasonally strongest months of the year in the S&P 500 based on data since 1957, after which the seasonal trend weakens in January and February. This quarterly chart shows that the next two weeks (3 rd and 4 th weeks of November), and the 2 nd week of December, are thee of the four seasonally weakest of the entire 4 th Quarter 22

24 Size: Large Cap Poised For More Q4 Relative Outperformance, Watch Small Cap IVV (S&P 500) is rebounding from October quarterly oversold extremes vs. ITOT (S&P 1500) that have previously led multi month periods of relative outperformance by Large Cap. 11% outperformance so far. Meanwhile, IJR (S&P 600) is closing in on quarterly oversold extremes vs. ITOT that have previously led multi month relative outperformance by Small Cap. Watching for an emerging opportunity here. 23

25 Style: Growth Stocks January Performance Trend Still Remains Intact The S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG) has been in a trend of quarterly relative outperformance versus the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since late January, and has recently made its fifth successful test of that trend since mid June. 24

26 Sectors (1): Investor Assets Moving Into Financials, Out Of Health Care Asbury s sector rotation model is currently overweight Technology (October 16 th ) and Financials (September 25 th ). The biggest inflows over the past 1 and 3 month periods went to Financials. The biggest outflows over the past month came from Health Care, and over the past 3 months came from Consumer Discretionary. 25

27 Sectors (2): Utilities, Energy Under Invested. Consumer Discretionary, Health Care Over Invested. This chart shows the historic daily average distribution of assets invested in the original 9 Sector SPDR ETFs since the series began in May This chart shows the current distribution of these assets through November 2 nd. The most under invested sectors are 1) Utilities, 2) Energy and 3) Consumer Staples. The most over invested sectors are 1) Consumer Discretionary, 2) Health Care,and 3) Industrials. 26

28 Sectors (3): Financials, Health Care Target Additional 5%, 18% Advances The SPDR Financial Sector ETF has an additional 5% to go before meeting our Sep 22 nd upside target of Tight positive correlation to the S&P 500. The SPDR Health Care Sector ETF resumed its 2013 advance in May and targets an additional 18% rise to $ Also positively correlated to SPX. 27

29 Industry Groups (1): Homebuilders Poised For More Strength This table displays our current upside targets for Sector and Industry Group ETFs, the date we made the target available to subscribers, and how the asset has performed since then. The February resumption of the 2012 advance in the SPDR Homebuilders ETF targets an additional 10% rise to $ Highly correlated to the S&P

30 Industry Groups (2): Banking Targets Additional 11% Advance, Oil & Gas Opportunity? The KBW Bank Sector Index resumed its 2016 advance in late September and is now retesting that breakout. A rise from $97.52 targets an 11% move to $ The SPDR Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF is testing major overhead resistance near $ Major decision point, watch for a bullish breakout. 29

31 US Interest Rates Long Term US Interest Rates At A Major Decision Point The yield of the benchmark 10 Year Treasury Note is edging above major yield resistance at 2.31% to 2.34%. Major decision point. Meanwhile, the SPDR Long Term Treasury ETF is testing major support at $ Another major inflection point, a breakdown is necessary for higher rates. 30

32 US Interest Rates Investors Betting On A Near Term Decline In Long Term Interest Rates Smart money commercial hedgers are holding a record net long extreme in CBOT 5 Year Note futures. Represents an aggressive bet on declining interest rates. The current trend of monthly expansion in the total net assets invested in SPTL indicates near term conviction that Treasury prices are headed higher. 31

33 Contact Us: Phone: info@asburyresearch.com On The Web:

Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets

Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets September 21st, 2017 Monthly Investment Compass 1) Executive Summary: September 21 st, 2017 U.S. Stock Market: Virtually all of our near term

More information

Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets

Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets January 12 th, 2017 Monthly Investment Compass Executive Summary: January 12 th 2017 U.S. Stock Market: A number of near term metrics warn

More information

Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets

Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets April 22 nd, 2016 Monthly Investment Compass Executive Summary: April 22 nd 2016 U.S. Stock Market: The most important takeaway from the latest

More information

US Financial Market Update for March Prepared for the Market Technicians Association

US Financial Market Update for March Prepared for the Market Technicians Association US Financial Market Update for March 2016 Prepared for the Market Technicians Association March 16 th, 2016 About Asbury Research Research, Methodology & Clientele Our Research: Asbury Research, established

More information

Investing During The Trump Administration: Opportunity & Danger

Investing During The Trump Administration: Opportunity & Danger Investing During The Trump Administration: Opportunity & Danger Prepared for the Los Angeles Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII ) June 17 th, 2017 About Asbury Research John

More information

US Financial Market Chart Book for February/March February 23, 2012

US Financial Market Chart Book for February/March February 23, 2012 US Financial Market Chart Book for February/March 2012 February 23, 2012 US Financial Market Chart Book Executive Summary: February 23 rd 2012 U.S. Stocks: The benchmark S&P 500 and bellwether Dow Jones

More information

Asbury Research s US Investment Analysis: A Review of Q Prepared for Interactive Brokers

Asbury Research s US Investment Analysis: A Review of Q Prepared for Interactive Brokers Asbury Research s US Investment Analysis: A Review of Q1 2016 Prepared for Interactive Brokers April 14 th. 2016 About Asbury Research Research, Methodology & Clientele Our Research: Asbury Research, established

More information

Canadian Technical Comment

Canadian Technical Comment October 15 2017 TSX: Shift to defense underway as near-term pullback looms Summary Recommendation: For long-term investment managers with cash on hand, we would wait for a short-term (2-4 week) corrective

More information

BTIG Technical Strategy Year-End Chart Book December 2014

BTIG Technical Strategy Year-End Chart Book December 2014 BTIG Technical Strategy Year-End Chart Book December 2014 This year has been one for the technicians - trends and momentum have dominated conversations about the markets, and for good reason. The following

More information

MARKET REVIEW - DECEMBER

MARKET REVIEW - DECEMBER Defying Gravity Stocks continue to climb 'Wall of Worry'. December 1, 2009 ON THE EDGE MARKET REVIEW - DECEMBER 2009 Following a lackluster October, stocks showed marked improvement during November despite

More information

THE RELATIVE STRENGTH CONCEPT APPLIED TO SECTOR INDICES

THE RELATIVE STRENGTH CONCEPT APPLIED TO SECTOR INDICES THE RELATIVE STRENGTH CONCEPT APPLIED TO SECTOR INDICES An Illustration with the DJ Stoxx 600 Index Yann CORDIER, CFTe, MFTA AXA Investment Managers London, 10/03/2015 OUTLINE The concept and power of

More information

The sideways churn in the major U.S. Stock indexes since late March continues. We have a lot of new members that have

The sideways churn in the major U.S. Stock indexes since late March continues. We have a lot of new members that have May 17, 2016 Dear Members, The sideways churn in the major U.S. Stock indexes since late March continues. We have a lot of new members that have recently joined us in the past couple of months. For you

More information

Weekly outlook for Nov. 27 Dec

Weekly outlook for Nov. 27 Dec Weekly outlook for Nov. 27 Dec. 1 2017 Summary For the ES we expect a minor pullback in the early part of the week, followed by a rally into the weekly close. There are four option expirations this week

More information

Weekly Market Summary

Weekly Market Summary Weekly Market Summary April 24, 2016 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: SPY made a new all-time high this week. The short and long term trend is higher. Despite a gain of 16% over the past 10 weeks,

More information

Stock Market Report Review

Stock Market Report Review January 7, 25 Stock Market Report - 24 Review Market Analysis for Period Ending Friday, December 31, 24 This document presents technical and fundamental analysis commonly used by investment professionals

More information

Market Update April 20, 2015

Market Update April 20, 2015 SeattleTA provides investment managers with technical analysis of the equity, fixed-income, commodity, and The forecast for a high on April 15 was spot-on (there s no kill switch on awesome!). The monthly

More information

Martin Pring s. Weekly InfoMovie Report. April 8, 2014

Martin Pring s. Weekly InfoMovie Report. April 8, 2014 Martin Pring s Weekly InfoMovie Report April 8, 2014 Issue 1093 Weekly InfoMovie Report 1 Key level remains $184 on the SPY. US Equity Market - Last time I pointed out that the $184 level on the S&P ETF

More information

RAYMOND JAMES RAYMOND JAMES. -Technical Chart Book -

RAYMOND JAMES RAYMOND JAMES. -Technical Chart Book - Technical Strategy Team - Technical Chart Book RAYMOND JAMES -Technical Chart Book - Providing Investors with timely data and technical observations on a broad spectrum of asset classes. Portfolio & Technical

More information

Stock Market Report. August 2, 2006

Stock Market Report. August 2, 2006 August 2, 26 Stock Market Report Market Analysis for Period Ending Friday, July 28, 26 This document presents technical and fundamental analysis commonly used by investment professionals to interpret direction

More information

Market Observations - as of Jul 27, 2018

Market Observations - as of Jul 27, 2018 Market Observations - as of Jul 27, 2018 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. This week began with most markets continuing their bullish trends

More information

Technical Analysis. Weekly Comment. Global. Sell Signal in MSCI World EUR Testing Key Support! Equities Sales Trading Commentary

Technical Analysis. Weekly Comment. Global. Sell Signal in MSCI World EUR Testing Key Support! Equities Sales Trading Commentary h Technical Analysis Weekly Comment Equities Sales Trading Commentary Global Michael Riesner Marc Müller 10/04/2012 michael.riesner@ubs.com marc.mueller@ubs.com +41-44-239 1676 +41-44-239 1789 Sell Signal

More information

Last Gasp in the Dollar. Market Update May 18, Seattle Technical Advisors

Last Gasp in the Dollar. Market Update May 18, Seattle Technical Advisors SeattleTA provides investment managers with technical analysis of the equity, fixed-income, commodity, and currency markets. While equities are expected to take a hit this week, the big news is expected

More information

Technical Analysis. Weekly Comment. Global. SPX Overbought Relief Rally in Europe!! Equities Sales Trading Commentary

Technical Analysis. Weekly Comment. Global. SPX Overbought Relief Rally in Europe!! Equities Sales Trading Commentary h Technical Analysis Equities Sales Trading Commentary Weekly Comment Global Michael Riesner Marc Müller 03/07/2012 michael.riesner@ubs.com marc.mueller@ubs.com +41-44-239 1676 +41-44-239 1789 SPX Overbought

More information

A More Challenging Environment For Global Investors But Not Without Opportunities

A More Challenging Environment For Global Investors But Not Without Opportunities A More Challenging Environment For Global Investors But Not Without Opportunities April 25 th 2016 The Markets Now by David Fuller fullertreacymoney.com The East India Club 16 St James s Square London

More information

Stock Market Report. January 26, 2005

Stock Market Report. January 26, 2005 January 26, 25 Stock Market Report Market Analysis for Period Ending Friday, January 21, 25 This document presents technical and fundamental analysis commonly used by investment professionals to interpret

More information

Global Technical Strategy Breakout Confirmed

Global Technical Strategy Breakout Confirmed Strategy February 22, 2015 Katie Stockton, CMT (212) 527-3568 kstockton@btig.com Technical Strategy Global Technical Strategy Breakout Confirmed The S&P 500 Index (SPX, 2110.30) confirmed its breakout

More information

Weekly Market Summary

Weekly Market Summary Weekly Market Summary August 18, 2015 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch US equities had two opportunities to kick off a rally this week. Neither had much follow through. On Monday, positive breadth was

More information

Chart 2: Long-term valuation metrics suggest US stocks to be highly valued.

Chart 2: Long-term valuation metrics suggest US stocks to be highly valued. November 19th, 2018 1 This is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

More information

The Incredible Value of Relative Strength in Equity Investing. September 20, 2017

The Incredible Value of Relative Strength in Equity Investing. September 20, 2017 The Incredible Value of Relative Strength in Equity Investing September 20, 2017 Relative Strength What is it? Relative Strength (RS) is the measure of how strong a security s price trend is compared to

More information

Stock Market Report. December 08, 2004

Stock Market Report. December 08, 2004 December 8, 24 Stock Market Report Market Analysis for Period Ending Friday, December 3, 24 This document presents technical and fundamental analysis commonly used by investment professionals to interpret

More information

The Technical Portfolio

The Technical Portfolio Volume 18 Monthly Return Comparison Regular Portfolio +2.73% Aggressive Portfolio +2.68% S&P 500 +1.69% Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.13% Nasdaq Composite +2.89% Russell 2000-1.00% March 17, 2019 The

More information

Chart 1: Dow Jones Industrial Average. Chart 2: Dow Jones Transportation Average

Chart 1: Dow Jones Industrial Average. Chart 2: Dow Jones Transportation Average December 17th, 2018 1 You are probably going to hear a lot about Dow Theory in the coming days and weeks. Just like the death crosses that have been occurring in several broad market indices, Dow Theory

More information

Total

Total The following report provides in-depth analysis into the successes and challenges of the Northcoast Tactical Growth managed ETF strategy throughout 2017, important research into the mechanics of the strategy,

More information

Martin Pring s. Weekly InfoMovie Report. December 19, 2012

Martin Pring s. Weekly InfoMovie Report. December 19, 2012 Martin Pring s Weekly InfoMovie Report December 19, 2012 Issue 1027 Merry Christmas to All! And may 2013 bring joyous Blessings and your Family know Joy and Peace! The Pring Family ~ 2012 Weekly InfoMovie

More information

Weekly Market Summary

Weekly Market Summary Weekly Market Summary June 6, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: US equities are up two months in a row and positive for the year. They are outperforming the rest of the world, despite ongoing

More information

Top Down Analysis Success Demands Singleness of Purpose

Top Down Analysis Success Demands Singleness of Purpose Chapter 9 Top Down Analysis Success Demands Singleness of Purpose Armed with a little knowledge about the stock and options market as well as a desire to trade, many new traders are faced with the daunting

More information

Martin Pring s. Weekly InfoMovie Report. December 27, Happy New Year to Our Wonderful Subcriber Family! May 2013 be Prosperous and Productive!

Martin Pring s. Weekly InfoMovie Report. December 27, Happy New Year to Our Wonderful Subcriber Family! May 2013 be Prosperous and Productive! Martin Pring s Weekly InfoMovie Report December 27, 2012 Issue 1028 Happy New Year to Our Wonderful Subcriber Family! May 2013 be Prosperous and Productive! The Pring Family ~ 2012 Weekly InfoMovie Report

More information

Technical Analysis. Technical Outlook Global. Boom and Bust SPX Trades in Wave 5. Equities Sales Trading Commentary

Technical Analysis. Technical Outlook Global. Boom and Bust SPX Trades in Wave 5. Equities Sales Trading Commentary h Equities Sales Trading Commentary Technical Analysis Technical Outlook 2017 Global Michael Riesner Marc Müller 03/01/2017 michael.riesner@ubs.com marc.mueller@ubs.com +41-44-239 1676 +41-44-239 1789

More information

Technical Analysis. Weekly Comment. Global. Wave 5 in SPX Underway Don t Chase USDJPY! Equities Sales Trading Commentary

Technical Analysis. Weekly Comment. Global. Wave 5 in SPX Underway Don t Chase USDJPY! Equities Sales Trading Commentary h Technical Analysis Weekly Comment Equities Sales Trading Commentary Global Michael Riesner Marc Müller 12/03/2013 michael.riesner@ubs.com marc.mueller@ubs.com +41-44-239 1676 +41-44-239 1789 Wave 5 in

More information

Michael Riesner Marc Müller 23/05/2017. These are sales views based on Technical Analysis. They do not represent the UBS House View.

Michael Riesner Marc Müller 23/05/2017. These are sales views based on Technical Analysis. They do not represent the UBS House View. h Equities Sales Trading Commentary Technical Analysis Weekly Comment Global Michael Riesner Marc Müller 23/05/2017 michael.riesner@ubs.com marc.mueller@ubs.com +41-44-239 1676 +41-44-239 1789 These are

More information

Weekly outlook for May 1 May

Weekly outlook for May 1 May Weekly outlook for May 1 May. 5 2017 TREND DIRECTION S&P 500 Oil Gold Short Term Intermediate-Term Long Term strong weak strong strong neutral Strong weak weak weak Summary The S&P500 index is expected

More information

PRESENTS CHARTING MADE EASY ALL TRADING INFORMATION REVEALED

PRESENTS CHARTING MADE EASY ALL TRADING INFORMATION REVEALED PRESENTS CHARTING MADE EASY ALL TRADING INFORMATION REVEALED 1 INTRODUCTION Over the years, investors have developed literally, hundred thousand of different technical market indicators in their efforts

More information

Summation Index High Accuracy Indicator

Summation Index High Accuracy Indicator In my trading experience one of the most reliable stock market timing indicators is the Summation Index which is a market breadth indicator. The Summation Index measures the number of advancing stocks

More information

June 2015 Technical Market Outlook

June 2015 Technical Market Outlook 8 June 2015 June 2015 Technical Market Outlook Peter Lee Chief Technical Strategist CIO Wealth Management Research This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. ( UBS FS ). All charts and

More information

Market Observations - as of May 18, 2018

Market Observations - as of May 18, 2018 Market Observations - as of May 18, 2018 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. After about 4 weeks of a relatively flat horizontal market (in

More information

Walter Murphy s Insights Short Term Review

Walter Murphy s Insights Short Term Review Walter Murphy s Insights Short Term Review Strategic Analysis for the Serious Investor Walter G. Murphy, Jr., CFA WMinsights.com February 17, 2014 Plain English US Equities: It is entirely possible that

More information

Stock Market Report. January 21, 2004

Stock Market Report. January 21, 2004 January 21, 24 Stock Market Report Market Analysis for Period Ending Friday, January 16, 24 This document presents technical and fundamental analysis commonly used by investment professionals to interpret

More information

Technical Strategy. Q1 Dollar top as the basis for a sharp correction

Technical Strategy. Q1 Dollar top as the basis for a sharp correction 2017 Chart 38. ) DXY with Advance/Decline Line (20 Key Dollar Pairs) Chart 39. ) US Dollar with Presidential Cycle Tactically, we have been bullish US dollar since the May 2016 bottom, which is the base

More information

Weekly technical analysis chart pack 6 th October 2014 James Brodie Chartered Market Technician

Weekly technical analysis chart pack 6 th October 2014 James Brodie Chartered Market Technician Weekly technical analysis chart pack 6 th October 2014 James Brodie Chartered Market Technician There are now increasing concerns facing the long term bull trends in the U.S. equity markets. Three key

More information

This would lower the year-end S&P 500 target price from 2,140 to 2,040. The technical picture of the market is also deteriorating.

This would lower the year-end S&P 500 target price from 2,140 to 2,040. The technical picture of the market is also deteriorating. January 13, 2016 SPECIAL BULLETIN We are now in the 82 nd month of a Bull Market and U.S. Markets are now getting very close to giving a SELL SIGNAL. As you know, I have been bullish on the market since

More information

Jason Leavitt Sunday, October 9, 2016

Jason Leavitt Sunday, October 9, 2016 Weekly Jason Leavitt jason@leavittbrothers.com Sunday, October 9, 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Join our email list and get

More information

Fourth Quarter Update: What s Next for Portfolio Allocations

Fourth Quarter Update: What s Next for Portfolio Allocations Fourth Quarter Update: What s Next for Portfolio Allocations Please see important disclosures, chart explanations, Agenda Q3 Performance Review Review of move to benchmark weight in asset categories Trade,

More information

Smart Beta Dashboard. Thoughts at a Glance. March By the SPDR Americas Research Team

Smart Beta Dashboard. Thoughts at a Glance. March By the SPDR Americas Research Team By the SPDR Americas Research Team Thoughts at a Glance For the first two months of Q1, US outperformed the broader market by nearly 5%. However, as 10-year Treasury yields and inflation expectations came

More information

Fundametrics Small Cap Equity Q Performance Summary and Observations

Fundametrics Small Cap Equity Q Performance Summary and Observations For more on CornerCap s institutional capabilities and past commentaries, click HERE Fundametrics Small Cap Equity Q4 2016 Performance Summary and Observations 4Q 2016 Latest 1 Year Latest 3 Years Latest

More information

The Year Ahead

The Year Ahead The Year Ahead - 2014 January 9, 2014 by Mark Ungewitter of Charter Trust Company In the spirit of year-end prognostication, here s my annual review of secular trends and historic behaviors that are likely

More information

INTERMEDIATE EDUCATION GUIDE

INTERMEDIATE EDUCATION GUIDE INTERMEDIATE EDUCATION GUIDE CONTENTS Key Chart Patterns That Every Trader Needs To Know Continution Patterns Reversal Patterns Statistical Indicators Support And Resistance Fibonacci Retracement Moving

More information

TOP 3 INDICATOR BOOT CAMP: PERCENT R

TOP 3 INDICATOR BOOT CAMP: PERCENT R BIGTRENDS.COM TOP 3 INDICATOR BOOT CAMP: PERCENT R PRICE HEADLEY, CFA, CMT Let s Get Started! Educate Understand the tools you have for trading. Learn what this indicator is and how you can profit from

More information

Bad Breadth. Market Update August 17, Seattle Technical Advisors

Bad Breadth. Market Update August 17, Seattle Technical Advisors SeattleTA provides investment managers with This week is options expiration week and mid-august is often better for equities than earlier or later in the month. Stock Traders Almanac reports that for the

More information

Monthly Stock Market Report

Monthly Stock Market Report October 23, 23 Monthly Stock Market Report This document is for internal use only. The document or any of its contents should not be distributed outside of the Federal Reserve System without permission.

More information

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week. Crude Oil.

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week. Crude Oil. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing July 10, 2017 Sameer Samana, CFA Global Quantitative and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index has broken out and remains

More information

The Investors Newsletter

The Investors Newsletter I N S I D E T H I S I S S U E 1 Perspectives 2 Summary of Indexes 3 Fundamentals & Indicators 4 Index Chart & Analysis economic reports from the past quarter are not indicating the push into higher prices

More information

Weekly outlook for June 12 June

Weekly outlook for June 12 June Weekly outlook for June 12 June 16 2017 TREND DIRECTION S&P 500 Oil Gold Short Term Intermediate-Term Long Term weak buy buy Weak neutral Strong sell buy buy buy Summary The S&P500 index is expected to

More information

Relative Performances of Key Markets, Indexes and S&P 500 Sectors

Relative Performances of Key Markets, Indexes and S&P 500 Sectors 22 May 2014 Relative Performances of Key Markets, Indexes and S&P 500 Sectors Peter Lee Chief Technical Strategist CIO Wealth Management Research This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services

More information

WallStreetCourier.com Starter Kit & Guidelines. How to maximize your results with WallStreetCourier.com. 1 v1.

WallStreetCourier.com Starter Kit & Guidelines. How to maximize your results with WallStreetCourier.com.  1 v1. WallStreetCourier.com Starter Kit & Guidelines How to maximize your results with WallStreetCourier.com www.wallstreetcourier.com 1 v1.7 Philosophy & Services of WallStreetCourier.com 2 www.wallstreetcourier.com

More information

Market Observations - as of May 11, 2018

Market Observations - as of May 11, 2018 Market Observations - as of May 11, 2018 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. After about four weeks of very little net change in the major indexes

More information

Increasing Risk of Medium-Term Correction Within Ongoing Bull Market

Increasing Risk of Medium-Term Correction Within Ongoing Bull Market Increasing Risk of Medium-Term Correction Within Ongoing Bull Market This is a Markets Now Seminar March 27 th 2017 By David Fuller fullertreacymoney.com The Caledonian Club 9 Halkin Street London SW1Y

More information

Weekly Market Summary

Weekly Market Summary Weekly Market Summary July 2, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: SPX has gained every month in the first half of the year, and it is up 8 months in a row for just the fifth time in 26 years.

More information

Index. long-term 200-day, 45 market cycle, myths, very long-term, weekly-based longer-term, 46-47

Index. long-term 200-day, 45 market cycle, myths, very long-term, weekly-based longer-term, 46-47 Appel_Index2.qxd 2/22/05 11:07 AM Page 229 Index Symbols 10-day rate of change, NYSE Index advance-decline line, 133-134 18-month market cycles, 104 21-day rate of change, NYSE Index advance-decline line,

More information

S&P 500 Update: Week ending May 11th 2018

S&P 500 Update: Week ending May 11th 2018 S&P 500 Update: Week ending May 11th 2018 1. Market Recap: The S&P 500 closed higher by 2.2% for week and broke out of some key resistance areas and a short term downtrend. There are 4 topics now setting

More information

Market Observations - as of Jun 8, 2018

Market Observations - as of Jun 8, 2018 Market Observations - as of Jun 8, 2018 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. Over the past four months we have seen several examples of Consolidation

More information

Lara s Weekly. S&P500 + GOLD + USOIL Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis. Lara Iriarte CMT 23 February, 2018

Lara s Weekly. S&P500 + GOLD + USOIL Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis. Lara Iriarte CMT 23 February, 2018 Lara s Weekly S&P500 + GOLD + USOIL Elliott Wave & Technical Analysis Lara Iriarte CMT 23 February, 2018 S&P 500 Contents S&P 500 GOLD USOIL About Disclaimer 3 18 36 48 48 S&P 500 S&P 500 Upwards movement

More information

Annual Returns: S&P 500 vs. ACWI ex-u.s. (Global Equities outside U.S.)

Annual Returns: S&P 500 vs. ACWI ex-u.s. (Global Equities outside U.S.) 2015 Strategy Review Tactical Growth (Managed ETFs) December 31, 2015 The following report provides in-depth analysis into the successes and challenges of Tactical Growth throughout 2015, important research

More information

Income Opportunities for Summer with SPY ETF

Income Opportunities for Summer with SPY ETF Income Opportunities for Summer with SPY ETF June 2016 Gareth Ryan Founder & Managing Director Risk Disclaimer Options are leveraged products that involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Before

More information

Global Bear Market at our Doorstep?

Global Bear Market at our Doorstep? 6 June 2012 Global Bear Market at our Doorstep? by William Cai, Vice President, Personal Financial Services This article was featured in the Jun 2012 issue of The Business Times. Below is the original

More information

Market Observations - as of Sep 7, 2018

Market Observations - as of Sep 7, 2018 Market Observations - as of Sep 7, 2018 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. Last week we saw a strong and broad rally to new all time highs

More information

Monthly Stock Market Report

Monthly Stock Market Report January 22, 22 Monthly Stock Market Report This document is for internal use only. The document or any of its contents should not be distributed outside of the Federal Reserve System without permission.

More information

Market Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. December RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group

Market Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. December RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of market close, December 1, 2017, unless

More information

Intelligent Investing, LLC Major Indices Daily Update 02/28/ 19

Intelligent Investing, LLC Major Indices Daily Update 02/28/ 19 Elliot Wave Updates Today the S&P500 was stuck in a less than 6p range. So there s really not much we can learn. All parameters remain the same a step 2: A move below SPX2764.55 (last Thursday s low) will

More information

1 P a g e. Executive Summary

1 P a g e. Executive Summary Executive Summary Price finally reached our expect SPX2112-2120 and the negative divergences that started to creep in on the daily TIs finally also took their toll over the past 2 days. The weekly charts

More information

Playing The Bull Market s Final Inning(s)

Playing The Bull Market s Final Inning(s) Playing The Bull Market s Final Inning(s) Douglas Ramsey, CFA, CMT Mid-September 2013 FOR PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION.

More information

13 April US Equity Indices: the land of the bearish rising wedge. Walter Zimmermann United ICAP. US Equity Indices 13 Apr

13 April US Equity Indices: the land of the bearish rising wedge. Walter Zimmermann United ICAP. US Equity Indices 13 Apr - 1-13 April 2015 : the land of the bearish rising wedge Walter Zimmermann United ICAP The market commentary contained in this document represents the opinions of the author. Such opinions are subject

More information

Weekly outlook for April 23, 2018

Weekly outlook for April 23, 2018 Weekly outlook for April 23, 2018 Summary The S&P 500 index is expected to go down further if price stays below the 2700 level. A weekly doji candle formed on the intermediate-term chart, and the short-term

More information

Chart 1: S&P 500 Death Crosses since 1923;

Chart 1: S&P 500 Death Crosses since 1923; December 10th, 2018 1 Last week we had a death cross in the S&P 500 and the 3 year minus 5 year Treasury yield curve went negative (inverted). These two events had talking heads claiming everything from

More information

Market Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. January RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group

Market Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. January RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of December 31, 2018, unless otherwise

More information

OSCILLATORS. TradeSmart Education Center

OSCILLATORS. TradeSmart Education Center OSCILLATORS TradeSmart Education Center TABLE OF CONTENTS Oscillators Bollinger Bands... Commodity Channel Index.. Fast Stochastic... KST (Short term, Intermediate term, Long term) MACD... Momentum Relative

More information

OUT OF THE WOODS? COMMENTARY STRONG FUNDAMENTALS KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET. February

OUT OF THE WOODS? COMMENTARY STRONG FUNDAMENTALS KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET. February LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY February 20 2018 OUT OF THE WOODS? John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS Stocks

More information

Weekly Technical Review

Weekly Technical Review Ucap Hong Kong Asset Management Limited Weekly Technical Review 8 th December 2015 Highlights (1) Equity Markets MSCIWorldIndex Weekly We are currently retesting the 1 715-25 resistance& a weekly break

More information

1 P a g e. Executive Summary

1 P a g e. Executive Summary Executive Summary Our standard sub division (SSD) Elliot Wave count for the S&P500 continues to track the market well, and we ll keep it as is until the market will tell us different. We continue to expect

More information

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week.

Key Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing January 2, 2018 Sameer Samana, CFA Global Equity and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index has broken out and remains

More information

Monthly Stock Market Report

Monthly Stock Market Report May 1, 22 Monthly Stock Market Report This document is for internal use only. The document or any of its contents should not be distributed outside of the Federal Reserve System without permission. Market

More information

Level I Learning Objectives by chapter

Level I Learning Objectives by chapter Level I Learning Objectives by chapter 1. Introduction to the Evolution of Technical Analysis Describe the development of modern technical analysis Describe the origins of technical analysis 2. A New Age

More information

Weekly outlook for June 5 June

Weekly outlook for June 5 June Weekly outlook for June 5 June 9 2017 TREND DIRECTION S&P 500 Oil Gold Short Term Intermediate-Term Long Term Weak buy buy neutral neutral sell buy buy buy Summary The S&P500 index is expected to hold

More information

Technical Analysis Workshop Series. Session 11 Semester 2 Week 5 Oscillators Part 2

Technical Analysis Workshop Series. Session 11 Semester 2 Week 5 Oscillators Part 2 Technical Analysis Workshop Series Session 11 Semester 2 Week 5 Oscillators Part 2 DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS This research material has been prepared by NUS Invest. NUS Invest specifically prohibits the

More information

1 P a g e. Executive Summary

1 P a g e. Executive Summary Executive Summary Over the past week we re-introduced some alternative counts, all of which bullish and some simple more bullish than others. The market keeps tracking them well; and we still can t eliminate

More information

Market Observations as of Aug 4, 2017

Market Observations as of Aug 4, 2017 Market Observations as of Aug 4, 2017 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. This week The mixed responses to earnings this week has resulted in

More information

Chapter 2.3. Technical Analysis: Technical Indicators

Chapter 2.3. Technical Analysis: Technical Indicators Chapter 2.3 Technical Analysis: Technical Indicators 0 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: TECHNICAL INDICATORS Charts always have a story to tell. However, from time to time those charts may be speaking a language you

More information

Weekly Market Summary

Weekly Market Summary Weekly Market Summary June 17, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Most of the US indices made new all-time highs this week. SPY is making 'higher highs' and 'higher lows' and is above all of

More information

Investing in the Second Lost Decade. IFTA Europe Martin J. Pring. Pring.com. PringTurner.com

Investing in the Second Lost Decade. IFTA Europe Martin J. Pring. Pring.com. PringTurner.com Investing in the Second Lost Decade IFTA Europe 2014 Martin J. Pring pring.com/ifta-2014.html 1. Copy of this presentation 2. Copy of article Is the Secular Bear Market About to Resume? 3. Copy of latest

More information

Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. May 18, Daily Swing

Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary. of Select Markets as of the close on. May 18, Daily Swing Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary of Select Markets as of the close on May 18, 2018 Market Daily CTI Daily Swing Weekly CTI Weekly Swing Industrial Neutral Low Positive Low Transports Positive

More information

The four year cycle revisited For members and families only, please do not forward as this tutorial will not be posted to the public.

The four year cycle revisited For members and families only, please do not forward as this tutorial will not be posted to the public. The four year cycle revisited 07-0421 For members and families only, please do not forward as this tutorial will not be posted to the public. A lot of my energy has been devoted to the gold sector these

More information