Trading Lessons from the Intraday Frame (study)

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Irma Hodge
5 years ago
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2 Trading Lessons from the Intraday Frame

3 3 Major Companies Reporting Earnings Goldman Sachs (GS), JNJ, UNH Major Economic Reports for Tomorrow... NONE Quotes from Last Night's Planning We're into resistance. There's a high volume node and the point of control beneath us, both of which act as magnets to expect a new short-term trading range between 2,800 and 2,770. There's a pocket under 2,770 which suggests a rapid 'drop zone' or sell swing should we enter the pocket. And finally, there's another unseen OPEN AIR POCKET above 2,810 that - if triggered - could result in a rapid breakout rally higher (see daily chart). Because NEITHER of these official outcomes/plans triggered, we stayed CAUTIOUS and safe within our short-term range and energy point at the 2,800 level. Today's Range Day behavior (at the highs) allowed for FADE trades in both direction throughout the session. The gap-down in NFLX earnings with the /NQ could easily set the stage for a trend day down tomorrow but watch the open and first hour closely tomorrow for additional data and plans TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

4 "Power Trender" Strong Stock Scan We're seeing the NEW top twelve relative strength leaders (via algorithm) in trending markets and the general expectation is to buy retracements or breakouts in

4 4 "Power Trender" Strong Stock Scan We're seeing the NEW top twelve relative strength leaders (via algorithm) in trending markets and the general expectation is to buy retracements or breakouts in these strongly trending names. The logic is that what is strong tends to get stronger (stocks attracting money flow tend to continue attracting additional money flow). Right now these would be the names and thus candidates above for you to do additional research and add these to your stock-scan list for possible inclusion into a swing trading portfolio on pullbacks or outright breakouts. HOW WE USE THESE STOCKS: I write the Power-Trending Stock Section for Swing Traders looking for candidates that complex stock scans will likely miss. The scan targets strongly trending stocks and the expectation is that price will continue trending higher, though of course additional analysis is required rather than just buying these names collectively. To participate in these stocks, we typically wait for a pullback/retracement to a rising moving average or Fibonacci/Trendline level to put on a buy/retracement where the stop is trailed under the average. These would be similar to how I describe intraday 'flag' retracements on a developing Trend Day TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

5 Tightly Compressed SP500 Stocks (Low ADX Scan) Here are the top six "Compressed ADX" (lowest ADX) values from our simple scan of the S&P 500 (in Think or Swim).

5 5 Tightly Compressed SP500 Stocks (Low ADX Scan) Here are the top six "Compressed ADX" (lowest ADX) values from our simple scan of the S&P 500 (in Think or Swim). The goal of this simple stock scan is to identify compressed or consolidating (RANGE) stocks and either: A) Play the fades (like a Range Day) into the trendlines by shorting the high and buying the low or B) Put these on a separate watch list and then WAIT for a breakout event to trigger a buy or sell-short swing trade to trade the RANGE EXPANSION play after the current CONTRACTION. Or, you could trade more complex strategies like butterflies, iron condors, or even prepare in advance for a possible breakout with straddles or strangles (advanced options traders). We'll update this scan and ideas like it at the beginning of each week TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

6 "S&P 500 Sector Performance" View This chart and sector comparisons are useful two ways: First, we get a broader sense of what's going on beneath the market subdivided into sectors.

6 6 "S&P 500 Sector Performance" View This chart and sector comparisons are useful two ways: First, we get a broader sense of what's going on beneath the market subdivided into sectors. Second, if you trade beyond the S&P 500 or futures/etfs, you can pinpoint bearish/weak stocks by starting with bearish/weak sectors. The idea is out outperform the market via short- selling a weak stock(s) in weak/bearish sectors on a down trend day (or vice versa) TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

7 7 Planning the 30-min Intraday /ES Volume Profile We'll keep the plan abundantly simple so as to avoid ego and bias and because nothing changed during today's trading session (except the post-market NFLX drop): We're into resistance. There's a high volume node and the point of control beneath us, both of which act as magnets to expect a new short-term trading range between 2,800 and 2,770. There's a pocket under 2,770 which suggests a rapid 'drop zone' or sell swing should we enter the pocket. And finally, there's another unseen OPEN AIR POCKET above 2,810 that - if triggered - could result in a rapid breakout rally higher (see daily chart). From what we're seeing now, it still looks like the next swing will be the downward departure AWAY FROM 2,800 but as always, be safe TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

10 10 An earnings surprise sent NFLX shares collapsing beneath the $400 support level all the way beneath $350 in after-hours trading. We'll continue to monitor this with respect to any morning/pre-market activity - it should be volatile - and assess how this factors into the broader NASDAQ and SP500 - both of which called for a SELL SWING as our dominant thesis from last week that may very well be happening right now TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

11 Planning the Next Day (Daily S&P 500 Cash Index) We have a little bit of extra information not shown on the chart above and it's the NFLX drop and /NQ sell-off after the close.

11 11 Planning the Next Day (Daily S&P 500 Cash Index) We have a little bit of extra information not shown on the chart above and it's the NFLX drop and /NQ sell-off after the close. With that in mind - and because today's reversal candle (range day doji) at 2,800 did not change our plan, we remain DOMINANT THESIS bearish for a sell-swing beneath 2,800 and ALTERNATE 'surprise short-squeeze' bullish (it could be very violent) if above 2, TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

12 12 Disclaimer: Neither TheoTrade or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or FINRA SIPC NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment product, transaction or investment. Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.