FX Daily. Global Strategy Technical Analysis. Today s highlights: Today s trades/positions: Hierarchy Grid

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1 .8 08 November 2013 Fixed Income Research FX Global Strategy Technical Analysis Today s highlights: EURUSD breaks key price, trendline and 38.2% retracement support at /21 to mark a better top, for initially. EURGBP collapse stays on course for the 50% retracement of the 2012/2013 uptrend at EURJPY breaks key trendline support from June, and below would see a price top. USDJPY s sees a rollercoaster session, leaving prices weighing on the 200-day average again at USDCHF above.9179 sees a base established. GBPUSD needs to hold below /25 to maintain a slight downside bias in the range. AUDUSD falls back to retest key support at.9427/22. Today s trades/positions: EURUSD: Short, add at , stop above , for USDJPY: Flat. Buy at 97.00, stop/reverse below 96.55, for GBPUSD: Short at /20, stop above , for USDCHF: Long, add at.9135, stop below.9092, for AUDUSD: Long from.9450/30, stop/reverse below Reverse longs back to a short at.9600, stop above NZDUSD: Short, stop above.8415, for USDCAD: Long, stop below , for EURJPY: Short, stop above , for EURGBP: Flat. Sell at.8380/.8400, stop above.8440, for Hierarchy Grid Source: Credit Suisse CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access

2 EURUSD Resistance /49*, , *, , *, , *, , , , Support /83, , /94**, *, , /20**, , *, The collapse below key price, trendline and 38.2% retracement support at /21 puts in a bigger top. EURUSD has suffered a further sharp collapse post the ECB cut, removing key support at /21 the neckline to the early year base, trendline support from the July low and the 38.2% retracement of the entire July/October rally putting in place a more important top. The fall finally managed to find a floor at our next downside target at the 50% retracement of the July/October rally which has seen a knee-jerk bounce. However, we look for /69 to ideally cap to see the immediate risk stay lower for a break below to target the 200-day average at /20 where we look for anther bounce. Removal of this level would target , then Above /69 should see a deeper recovery back to , but with a break above needed to shift the trend neutral. Strategy: Short, add at , stop above , for USDJPY Resistance 98.30/35, 98.63/73*, 99.14/19*, 99.41*, 99.68*, 99.80/88*, 99.99**, , , ** Support 97.96/86, 97.74*, 97.62*, 97.46/41*, 97.20, 96.98/94*, 96.76, 96.57**, 96.28*, 95.80** A rollercoaster session leaves prices weighing on the 200-day average again at A dramatic session saw USDJPY initially break higher to approach trendline resistance at 99.67/84. Selling was found ahead of here which saw the market collapse, forming a bearish outside day, and prices again weighing on the 200- day average at Beneath here would look lower to 96.98/94, with better support seen at Only removal of the latter would see a more sustained bear move to Above 98.30/35 is needed to ease the immediate downside bias, and above 98.63/73 to see strength back to Strategy: Long, stopped. Try a new long at 97.00, stop/reverse below 96.55, for FX 2

3 GBPUSD Resistance /25*, , /69, *, /62**, **, ** Support , , *, /80*, /41*, /27*, *, **, , * Selling has again been found at the / % retracement barrier and neckline to the recent top. GBPUSD reversed the early sell-off and rallied sharply again back to resistance at /25 the 61.8% retracement of the sell-off from and neckline to the recent top. Selling interest has again emerged here and we look for another attempt to turn lower from it. Removal of would aim at /41. Below this latter area though is needed to warn of a fresh look at the low. Above would suggest strength can extend back to retest the /62 key highs. Strategy: Short at /20, stop above profit at Take USDCHF Resistance..9188,.9217,.9251/53**,.9281*,.9320*,.9343,.9365/72**,.9406,.9457** Support.9134/31,.9110,.9098/92**,.9085,.9070/65,.9053*,.9045,.9028/22,.8989/87*,.8951/44*,.8918 A near-term cap has been found at the.9253 barrier, but a better base remains intact. USDCHF surged up through key resistance at.9139/79 the 55-day average, trendline from the July 2013 high and the mid-october peak which sets a better base. The rally through here triggered a test of the 38.2% retracement of the May/October fall at.9253 initially. Selling has been found here for now, for a sharp reversal off the highs. We allow for weakness to run further, but look for.9098/92 to hold to see a retest of.9253, above which should see strength extend to the 200-day average at Removal of.9098/92 would set small top for.9070/65, then.8951/44. Strategy: Long, add at.9135, stop below.9092, for FX 3

4 AUDUSD Resistance.9489,.9510*,.9545/55*,.9586/90,.9624/34*,.9673 *,.9697*,.9716,.9730**,.9758**,.9793** Support.9427/22**,.9407,.9390/88*,.9376*,.9325*,.9289/81**,.9226/23* The rejection at.9545/55 sees bearish pressure mount again and turns focus back on.9427/22. AUDUSD has fallen sharply after again being rejected at.9544/55 the 38.2% retracement of the sell-off from.9758, 21-day average and price resistance. The reversal sees bearish risks mount again and turns attention to the key support at.9427/22 the 38.2% retracement level. Beneath here would see a move to the 55-day average at Beneath here targets Only above.9545/55 would set a base, allowing a deeper recovery to.9586 next, and potentially as far as.9624/34. Our bias would be for this to then cap. Strategy: Long, stop/reverse below Reverse longs back to a short at.9600, stop above NZDUSD Resistance.8360,.8397,.8411/16*,.8435,.8445/47*,.8470,.8521/24,.8545**.8559*,.8588* Support.8307,.8291*,.8260*,.8250/45,.8210,.8194/93**,.8182/64**,.8133*,.8095,.8071 Selling has resurfaced at.8435/47, and we look for a retest of basing support at.8193/61. NZDUSD extended its reversal from the neckline to the recent top at.8435/47. We look for weakness to extend further to.8291 next, below which targets.8260 ahead of basing support at.8193/64. Beneath here can warn of a more significant bear trend and further weakness to 50% retracement support at.8133 next. Resistance moves to.8397 then.8416 with.8447, which we look to cap. Above can see strength back to Strategy: Short from.8380, stop above.8415, for FX 4

5 USDCAD Resistance *, /0502**, /18, , *, **, , ** Support /25, /395*, /64*, /54, /12*, /80*, /49** Buying has again been found at 55-day average and chart support at /64, leaving us bullish and focused on trendline resistance at /0500. USDCAD has again found buying interest on its approach to the 55-day average and chart support at /64. The rebound from here leaves us bullish for a move up to chart and trendline resistance at / We would expect this to hold again on initial test, but look for an eventual push through, for a test of the peak. Below /95 is needed to aim again /64, where we again expect a base and a fresh attempt to turn higher. Strategy: Long at , stop below Also add above , for EURJPY Resistance /89, , /49*, *, **, , /29*, 14.85, /08, **, Support , **, , , *, /16**, *, The break of key trendline support at sees the threat of a bigger top mount. EURJPY has collapsed below key trendline support from June at , increasing the risk for a more important top. The breakdown through here leaves prices now weighing on the low. A break here would confirm a bigger top to target initially, ahead of chart and 200-day average support at /16, where we would look for a renewed basing effort. Resistance shows at /89 initially. Above /49 aims at , but through is needed for a base. Strategy: Short, stop above , for FX 5

6 EURGBP Resistance.8351,.8379,.8414,.8420/30*,.8443/44*,.8459,.8466*,.8481/89**,.8499/.8504,.8519*,.8532 Support.8300,.8285*,.8266*,.8227*,.8204,.8160/55**,.8132,.8085* We target.8285 the 50% retracement of the 2002/2013 rally which we look to hold at first. EURGBP s sell-off has accelerated and seen its break below our suppor/target at the October low at The prod beneath here has seen prices come close to the 50% retracement of the 2012/13 rally at.8285, ahead of which buying has been found. With a delayed DeMark daily Sequential 13 buy in place, we expect an initial bounce from here, before turning lower again. Direct extension through.8285 would aim at.8204 then what we look to be better price and 61.8% retracement support at.8166/55. Resistance shows at.8379, then.8410, but through.8420 is needed to set a base. Strategy: Flat. Sell at.8380/.8400, stop above.8440 for FX 6