EURUSD Monday Low is Pivot for Next Move Daily Bars

Transcription

1 09/24/2012 BIAS BIAS MAY CHANGE OBJECTIVES EURUSD Long GBPUSD Flat AUDUSD Long NZDUSD Long USDJP Y Long USDCAD Flat USDCHF Flat GOLD Flat CRUDE Pending USDOLLAR Flat 1

2 EURUSD Monday Low is Pivot for Next Move Several technical considerations warrant a bullish bias at the current juncture, such as daily RSI correcting from nearly 80 to 60, a key reversal on the 240 minute chart at the low (first since 8/10) and the EURUSD responding to support just below (congestion from 9/12-9/13, 23.6% of rally from July low, topside of former channel). From a trading (risk) standpoint, Monday s low is important. A drop below would shift focus to the next cluster of support at 12740/60. Exceeding would increase confidence that the next bull leg is underway. LEVELS:

3 GBPUSD Serves as Near Term Pivot In recent webinars, I ve highlighted the importance of The level, April s high and the 2010 high, proved its validity again last week. Friday s rejection should at least make one aware of a deeper setback or reversal. A drop below last week s low would put and in play. The latter level is viewed as strong support. A drop to mentioned levels would still fit within the confines of a correction. Strength from above would expose 16450/80 (8/29/11 high and trendline). LEVELS:

4 AUDUSD Holds 20 Day Average Again 10805/55 remains of interest in the weeks ahead for the AUDUSD but near term focus is on identifying completion of the decline from The correction is already deep but a drop below last week s low would probably make bulls suffer until and maybe Exceeding would increase confidence that a low is in place. LEVELS:

5 NZDUSD Drops into Support from Late August Pivot The NZDUSD declined sharply Monday and tested the 8/23 high as support in the process. The response at that level is encouraging but failure to hold above Monday s low would expose 8130/40 (23.6% of rally from June low, 20 day average, former congestion) and possibly 8080 (9/10 low). Exceeding 8256 would put the bull back on track. LEVELS:

6 USDJPY Drift Lower Enters Day 4 The drop from the 9/19 high is deep and confidence in the upside is low as a result. The decline has resulted in more than a 61.8% retracement of the rally from If the larger trend has turned up, then price should remain above 7750 (save for a spike). Exceeding 7832 would increase confidence in the upside. LEVELS:

7 USDCAD April Low Continues to Serve as Resistance The USDCAD is actually showing the most reversal evidence with a key reversal on 9/14 and large range day (indicating possible exhaustion) on Still, the pivot is 9918 and the trend is considered down against that level. Bulls continue to struggle above 9800 and the 20 day average is now in play as reinforcement. Focus should remain on another drop towards LEVELS:

8 USDCHF Bears Reject Run at 9400 The USDCHF has responded to the April pivot of Still, treat strength as corrective until evidence is sufficient to warrant a bullish bias. The next bearish level of interest is the gap from May at After trading into congestion from the 9/12 and 9/13 highs, the USDCHF spent most of Monday trading lower. Favor the downside below Monday s high (9391). Exceeding that level would shift focus to 9410/30. LEVELS:

9 Gold Drops but Remains Constructive 240 Minute Bars The decline from the high in gold is impulsive (5 waves) but that decline could just as well complete a flat. As such, it is best to refrain from the short side until a drop below last week s low (1752). Also, the chart shown today highlights a common bullish setup in which RSI slips to new lows while price makes higher (although barely in this case) closes. Focus would shift to 1715 in the event of a 1752 break. LEVELS:

10 Crude at Support but Bearish on Strength The decline is unfolding in an impulsive manner. A 5 wave drop may be complete from the high. The implications are for corrective strength before the next leg lower. Resistance begins at Friday s high of I favor selling rallies above that level. LEVELS:

11 USDOLLAR Fails again Near 9850 and Remains Vulnerable The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) has traded below its yearlong trendline support, the April low at 9816 and the downward sloping channel the next levels of interest are 9738 and The bounce from just above 9738 has stalled at resistance from the 9/11 low / 9/13 high. Start looking lower again. Resistance extends to A drop below 9797 would inspire confidence in the downside. The trend is down against 9930 towards LEVELS: Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com To contact Jamie jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on To be added to Jamie s distribution list, send an with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. 11