Asian Currencies Weekly Technicals Tuesday, 15 October 2013

Transcription

1 Technical Analysis Research Asian Currencies Weekly Technicals Tuesday, 15 October 2013 Technical Outlook

2 Technical Outlook Asian currencies remain bid vs. the US Dollar but some have hit our targets; caution is warranted Market JP Morgan Asia Dollar Index (ADXY): USD/SGD: USD/CNH: USD/CNY 1 Year NDF: USD/CNY 1 Month NDF: USD/IDR 1 Month NDF: Short term view (1 3 weeks) Hit the 200 day moving average at but it may struggle in the region. Revisits the / support zone around which we expect it to stabilise. Made a new all-time low at while en route to the psychological region. Made another new all-time low, this time at , while targeting the region. Has so far made a new all-time low at and should slide further still. Slid through the 11105/11087 support area and thus targets the 10845/10818 zone. USD/INR 1 Month NDF: Still meanders around the 50% retracement of the May-to-August rise at USD/KRW 1 Month NDF: USD/MYR 1 Month NDF: Probes the support line at which could hold this week. Still targets the /29 support zone which may well hold, though. USD/PHP 1 Month NDF: Is still expected to hit the September low at and could reach 42.27/05. USD/TWD 1 Month NDF: Made a ten month low at , a fall through which would be medium term bearish. 15 October

3 JP Morgan Asia Dollar Index (ADXY) - Daily Chart Has reached the 200 day moving average at but it may struggle in the region The JP Morgan Asia Dollar Index has reached the 200 day moving average at and nearly also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at In the next higher region the index may struggle, though. If not, we will have to allow for the June high at to be reached as well. The recent rise and daily close above the September high at has neutralised our medium term forecast. Only a, for now unexpected, slip back below the late September low would mean that a medium term downtrend is back in the picture. Once another down leg has begun, the April 2010 high at will be targeted and also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the advance at Longer term the 50% retracement at is also being eyed. JP Morgan Asia Dollar Index Daily Chart 200 day moving average is at Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View & / & & October

4 JP Morgan Asia Dollar Index (ADXY) - Weekly Chart Still targets the 55 week moving average at JP Morgan Asia Dollar Index Weekly Chart 55 week moving average is at October

5 USD/SGD - Daily Chart Revisits the / support zone around which we expect it to stabilise USD/SGD is now testing the / support area (June and September lows as well as the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement) which should withstand the first test. We still expect that the currency pair will level out in the region. Should this not be the case, we will have to change our medium term outlook to a bearish one. In this scenario the May low at will be back in the picture. Minor resistance is seen along the two month resistance line at and between the 200 day moving average at and the October 10 high at USD/SGD Daily Chart More important resistance comes in at , the late September high, and then around the 55 day moving average at Significant support is seen at / Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View / / / /83 15 October

6 USD/SGD - Weekly Chart Made a five month low below the 55 week moving average at USD/SGD Weekly Chart Has slid below the 55 week moving average at October

7 USD/CNH - Daily Chart Made a new all-time low at while en route to the psychological region USD/CNH made a new all-time low at while on track to reach the psychological zone. Our bearish view will be maintained while USD/CNH stays below the two month resistance line at Further resistance can be seen in the /98 area, containing the early May and June highs. Medium term we will retain our bearish outlook while USD/CNH remains below the late August high. USD/CNH Daily Chart New all-time low was made at Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View & / & October

8 USD/CNH - Weekly Chart Made a new all-time low at USD/CNH Weekly Chart An all-time low was made at October

9 Non-Deliverable Forwards 15 October

10 USD/CNY 1 Year NDF - Daily Chart Made yet another new all-time low, this time at , while targeting the region The USD/CNY 1 Year NDF is accelerating lower and has so far made a new all-time low at while on its way to the psychological region. Minor resistance can be found around the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the June-to-July decline, projected lower from the late July high, at and along the downtrend channel resistance line at The outlook will remain bearish while the NDF stays below the October 10 high. USD/CNY 1 Year NDF Daily Chart Current October low was made at Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View & & October

11 USD/CNY 1 Year NDF - Weekly Chart Made yet another new all-time low, this time at USD/CNY 1 Year NDF Weekly Chart October low was made at October

12 USD/CNY 1 Month NDF - Daily Chart Has so far made a new all-time low at and should slide further still The USD/CNY 1 Month NDF so far made a new all-time low at while en route to the 261.8% Fibonacci extension at and then the major psychological mark. We will stay immediately bearish while the NDF remains below its late September high at Resistance below this level can be seen along the 2013 downtrend line at and above this level around the August low. Only in case of an unexpected rally above the September peak would our medium term bearish outlook be questioned. USD/CNY 1 Month NDF Daily Chart Downtrend line is at Current October low was made at Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View & & & / October

13 USD/CNY 1 Month NDF - Weekly Chart Is still sliding towards the 261.8% Fibonacci extension at USD/CNY 1 Month NDF Weekly Chart 261.8% Fibonacci extension is at October

14 USD/IDR 1 Month NDF - Daily Chart Has slid through the 11105/11087 support area and thus targets the 10845/10818 support zone The USD/IDR 1 Month NDF remains short term under pressure and slid through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this year s advance at which is why we have neutralised our medium term forecast. Significant support between the September low and the 50% retracement at is thus being targeted. Failure there would put the June and the July highs back on the map as well. Our long term bullish forecast will stay valid while the NDF trades above the next lower July low. Resistance comes in around the zone. USD/IDR 1 Month NDF Daily Chart Only a, for now, no longer expected rise above the late September high would reinstate our bullish view. Support is seen at 10845/10818 Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View 10845/ & / & October

15 USD/IDR 1 Month NDF - Weekly Chart Slips back towards the 10822/10723 gap USD/IDR 1 Month NDF Weekly Chart Gap is at 10822/ October

16 USD/INR 1 Month NDF - Daily Chart Still meanders around the 50% retracement of the May-to-August rise at The USD/INR 1 Month NDF is still oscillating around the 50% retracement of the May-to-August advance at Further support can be seen between last week s low and the June high. Still more support comes in at the late July low and the mid-july high. While the NDF trades above the July low at our medium term bullish forecast will remain in place. Resistance comes in around the 55 day moving average at and then around the region. USD/INR 1 Month NDF Daily Chart While the NDF stays below the latter a downside bias will be maintained. 50% retracement is at Because of the time that has elapsed below the resistance zone we have neutralised our forecast. Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View 61.41/22& & / & October

17 USD/INR 1 Month NDF - Weekly Chart Continues to come off its August all-time high at USD/INR 1 Month NDF Weekly Chart August high was made at October

18 USD/KRW 1 Month NDF - Daily Chart Probes the support line at which could hold this week The USD/KRW 1 Month NDF so far made a ten month low at , right on the support line at (see the weekly chart on the following page). Around it the NDF may well stabilise this week. Should this not be the case and at least one daily close below the support line at be made, this year s low at would be back on the map. Resistance is seen between the February low and the May low. Further resistance is seen at the February high. While the NDF remains below the 55 day moving average at , downside pressure should be maintained. USD/KRW 1 Month NDF Daily Chart Current October low was made at Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View / & / October

19 USD/KRW 1 Month NDF - Weekly Chart Probes the support line at which is expected to hold USD/KRW 1 Month NDF Weekly Chart Support line is at October

20 USD/MYR 1 Month NDF - Daily Chart Still targets the /29 support zone which may well hold, though The USD/MYR 1 Month NDF is still heading lower towards the September low and the 200 day moving average at We will retain our medium term bullish forecast while the NDF continues to trade above its July low, though. While the mid-june low at underpins, long term upside pressure should be maintained. As long as this is the case, the August peak at should at some stage be bettered with the May 2010 peak then being in focus. USD/MYR 1 Month NDF Daily Chart Resistance can be seen along the two month resistance line at , around the 55 day moving average at and also at the late September high at Failure at will neutralise our view and failure at will target the 61.8% retracement at day moving average is at Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View / & / & October

21 USD/MYR 1 Month NDF - Weekly Chart Slides back towards the 200 week moving average at USD/MYR 1 Month NDF Weekly Chart 200 week moving average is at October

22 USD/PHP 1 Month NDF - Daily Chart Is still expected to hit the September low at and could reach the 42.27/05 support area The USD/PHP 1 Month NDF is still expected to be heading back down towards the September low at Failure there looks likely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May-to-August high at and the 200 day moving average at being in focus. Should a drop through and daily close below the low be seen, our medium term bullish forecast will be neutralised. We will retain our longer term bullish view while the NDF stays above its June low at 41.87, though. USD/PHP 1 Month NDF Daily Chart Good resistance remains to be seen between the late September high and the 55 day moving average at While trading below it, immediate downside pressure should be maintained. 50% retracement is at Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View 42.83/ & & /61& October

23 USD/PHP 1 Month NDF - Weekly Chart Still hovers above the 50% retracement at USD/PHP 1 Month NDF Weekly Chart 50% retracement is at October

24 USD/TWD 1 Month NDF - Daily Chart Made a ten month low at , a fall through which would be medium term bearish The USD/TWD 1 Month NDF once again trades below the May low at and so far made a marginally lower ten month low at Should this level give way, we will turn medium term bearish and allow for the support line at to be retested (see the weekly chart on the following page). Further potential support can be seen at the Fibonacci extension cluster. USD/TWD 1 Month NDF Daily Chart As long as underpins on a daily chart closing basis, we will expect the NDF to eventually be heading back up towards the three month resistance line at Downside momentum is keeping the upper hand at present which is why further weakness may still be seen while the NDF stays below the two month resistance line at Ten month low was made at Support Resistance 1-Week View 1-Month View & / & & October

25 USD/TWD 1 Month NDF - Weekly Chart Drops back towards the support line at USD/TWD 1 Month NDF Weekly Chart Long term support line is at October