Chart Of The Day USD/JPY: In the early stages of a sustained up-move that could extend quickly to upon a break above

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Piers Parrish
5 years ago
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1 Quek Ser Leang Lee Sue Ann Global Economics & Markets Research URL: Chart Of The Day USD/JPY: In the early stages of a sustained up-move that could extend quickly to upon a break above The shift to a bullish USD stance and to buy at was timely as USD rose strongly yesterday after an initial dip to a low of The current movement is likely the early stages of a sustained up-move but the early November high of is clearly a strong resistance but a break could lead to further buying towards the next resistance near Stop-loss is unchanged at for now but is likely strong enough to hold any pull-back from here.

2 OVERVIEW Oil was the story again on Monday as the front-month WTI contract flirted with US$40/bbl essentially without a catalyst and then shot up to close at US$42/bbl. The roughly 5% intraday bounce dragged stocks in the US higher. The bounce in energy and stocks drove Treasury yields modestly up as well, and the 2-year closed 2bps higher in yield at 0.85% whilst the 10-year was roughly flat at 2.27%. Within the FX space, the USD ended higher across board with the dollar index DXY finishing at 99.40, highest close since mid-april. Markets now looks poised to test the psychological 100 handle in the coming sessions. In the US, the October CPI report will clearly be of significant interest as the market continues to contemplate the likelihood of a rate hike next month. Consensus is looking for a 0.2% m/m rise in the core index which should leave annual core inflation at 1.9%. The October IP and November NAHB housing index will also be released. Fed Funds Rate: % Last Change: -0.75% in Dec 08 Next FOMC Meeting: 17-Dec-15 GDP QoQ: +3.9% in 2Q % in 3Q15 3Q15 Release: (2 nd print): 24-Nov-15 PCE Price Index YoY: +0.3% in Aug +0.2% in Sep Oct Release: 25-Nov-15 Core PCE Price Index YoY: +1.3% in Aug +1.3% in Sep Oct Release: 25-Nov-15 Unemployment: +5.1% in Sep +5.0% in Oct Nov Release: 04-Dec-15 Nonfarm payroll: +137k in Sep +271k in Oct Nov Release: 04-Dec-15 Retail Sales: +0.0% in Sep +0.1% in Oct Nov Release: 11-Dec-15 Retail Sales ex autos: -0.4% in Sep +0.2% in Oct Nov Release: 11-Dec-15 Durable Goods: -3.0% in Aug -1.2% in Sep Oct Release: 25-Nov-15 Durable Goods ex autos: -0.9% in Aug -0.4% in Sep Oct Release: 25-Nov-15 Housing Starts: +1132k in Aug +1206k in Sep Oct Release: 18-Nov-15 exp: +1160k Case Shiller 20-City Index: +5.0% in Jul +5.1% in Aug Sep Release: 24-Nov-15 UoM Consumer Confidence: 90.0 in Oct 93.1 in Nov Dec Release: 11-Dec-15 UOB Fed Funds Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.50% end 1Q16: 0.75% end 2Q16: 1.00% end 3Q16: 1.25% 2 P a g e

3 USD/SGD: USD/SGD firmed to trade a range of on Monday from last Friday s high of SGD NEER is currently at around 0.45% below the mid-point with +/-1.5% from mid-point implying USD/SGD in a range of based on current FX levels. Earlier today, Singapore s non-oil domestic exports for October came in at -0.5% y/y against expectations of -3.0% y/y. Electronics exports was worse-than-expected at -3.2% y/y against expectations -2.2%. The strong resistance at was unthreatened as USD traded quietly yesterday. The outlook is mixed for today but the recent upward pressure appears to have eased. Expect sideway trading for today, likely between and Bullish: Strong resistance at but a break could lead to a quick move to [No change in view, see previous update below] While upward momentum is not very strong at this stage, the undertone is clearly positive and a clear break above last week s peak near could lead to a quick move higher to Strong support is at ahead of the stop-loss at S$NEER Last Change: Reduce the rate of modest and gradual appreciation of S$NEER band slightly. (Oct 2015) Next MAS Meeting: April 2016 (date not fixed) GDP YoY: +1.8% in 2Q % in 3Q15 3Q15 Release (final): 25-Nov-15 CPI YoY: -0.8% in Aug -0.6% in Sep Oct Release: 23-Nov-15 NODX YoY: -8.4% in Aug +0.3% in Sep Oct Release: 17-Nov-15 exp: -3.0%, act: -0.5% Industrial Production: -7.1% in Aug -4.8% in Sep Oct Release: 26-Nov-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.43 end 1Q16: 1.45 end 2Q16: 1.46 end 3Q16: 1.44 UOB 3M SIBOR Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.15% end 1Q16: 1.20% end 2Q16: 1.25% end 3Q16: 1.35% UOB 3M SOR Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.25% end 1Q16: 1.35% end 2Q16: 1.35% end 3Q16: 1.45% 3 P a g e

4 EUR/SGD: In line with expectations, EUR retested last week s low near /78. The lack of a significant rebound suggests continuing downward pressure but at this stage, a sustained break below is unlikely. On the upside, the strong resistance is expected to cap for today. Neutral: Improving downward momentum but too early to expect a sustained down-move. While short-term downward momentum is improving, a move below the major support appears unlikely at this stage. That said, EUR has to reclaim in the next 1 to 2 days or the downward pressure will continue to increase. GBP/SGD: Instead of extending its recent strength, GBP slipped below the strong support at Upward pressure has clearly eased but the current movement is likely part of a consolidation phase and not the start of a sustained downmove. Expect range trading for today, likely between and Neutral: Likely in a consolidation phase now. The recent GBP strength appears to have fizzled out but the pull-back from /05 high yesterday is likely part of a consolidation phase and not the start of a bearish reversal. In other words, there is no change to the current neutral view. Strong support is at with equally strong resistance at the level mentioned yesterday. AUD/SGD: The move back below yesterday suggests that a short-term top is likely in place. The current pull-back could extend lower but a sustained break below is not expected for now. Strong resistance is at Bullish: Continue to target a move to [No change in view, see previous update below] There is no change to the bullish AUD view and we continue to target a move to However, shorter-term indicators are approaching overbought which could lead to a few days of consolidation/correction first. Stop-loss is at JPY/SGD: Expectation for JPY strength yesterday was clearly wrong as this pair plunged to a low of /28. The sharp drop appears incomplete and the support at /00 could be tested for today /75 is acting as a strong resistance and this level is expected to cap from here. Neutral: Short-term downward pressure but too early to expect a sustained down-move. JPY staged a short-lived rally early yesterday but failed to move above the key resistance. While the subsequent rapid and sharp drop from the high of /40 is gaining momentum rapidly, it is too early to expect a sustained down-move. That said, the short-term pressure will continue to build on the downside unless there is a move back above in the next couple of days. Support is at ahead of the key level at P a g e

5 USD/MYR: MYR is seen hovering around the region after trading a relatively tight range on Monday. Notably, BNM Gov Zeti says prices will continue to rise until Q1, added that inflation is due to cost and not demand. Bullish: Continue to target a move to [No change in view, see previous update below] The outlook for USD still appears constructive for further gains and we continue to expect a move to , possibly extending to Stop-loss is at Overnight Policy Rate: 3.25% Last Change: +0.25% in Jul 2014 Next BNM Meeting: 21-Jan-16 GDP YoY: +4.9% in 2Q % in 3Q15 4Q15 Release: - CPI YoY: +3.1% in Aug +2.6% in Sep Oct Release: 18-Nov-15 Trade Balance: b in Aug +9.69b in Sep Oct Release: 04-Dec-15 Export: +4.1% in Aug +8.8% in Sep Oct Release: 04-Dec-15 Import: -6.1% in Aug +9.6% in Sep Oct Release: 04-Dec-15 Industrial Production: +2.3% in Aug +5.1% in Sep Oct Release: 10-Dec-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 4.40 end 1Q16: 4.18 end 2Q16: 4.15 end 3Q16: 4.06 UOB Overnight Policy Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 3.25% end 1Q16: 3.25% end 2Q16: 3.25% end 3Q16: 3.25% USD/THB: Thailand s 3Q15 GDP grew by 2.9% y/y from 2.8% in the previous quarter. In terms of a seasonally adjusted GDP, the economy grew by 1.0% in comparison to only 0.3% of growth in 2Q15. The main economic drivers were tourism sector and public investment. Private and government consumption expanded by 1.7% and 1.0% consecutively, though gross fixed capital formation dropped by 1.2%. For the external sector, exports of goods and services grew by 1.8% while imports of goods and services declined by 2.4% due to the weakness in internal and external demand. The NESDB s projection for 2015 GDP growth is now 2.9%, compared to the range of % previously predicted in August. For 2016, the state planning agency predicts economic growth of %. Bullish: Likely close to making a top; take profit near While USD touched a fresh high of yesterday, upward momentum is showing signs of waning and this pair appears to be close to making a top. Those who are long may consider taking some profit near the target. Stop-loss has been moved higher to from Day Repo Rate: 1.50% Last Change: -0.25% in Apr 2015 Next BOT Meeting: 16-Dec-15 GDP YoY: +3.0% in 1Q % in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 16-Nov-15 act: +2.9% CPI YoY: -1.07% in Sep -0.77% in Oct Nov Release: 01-Dec-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 35.5 end 1Q16: 35.8 end 2Q16: 36.0 end 3Q16: 36.0 UOB 1-Day Repo Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.50% end 1Q16: 1.50% end 2Q16: 1.75% end 3Q16: 2.00% 5 P a g e

6 USD/CNH: USD/CNY and USD/CNH ended lower on Monday at and from and respectively on Friday despite higher fixing at (Friday: ). IMF s Executive Board is scheduled to meet on 30 November, to decide whether the CNY should be included in the SDR basket. Whilst a positive decision will be supportive for the CNY in the mid-to-long term horizon, near term upside may be short lived and dampened due to the possible delayed implementation of the new basket. While USD exceeded the target at /55, the subsequent sharp and rapid drop from the high of was unexpected. The undertone still appears weak but at this stage, a move below the major support at appears unlikely. Only a move back above would indicate that the downward pressure has eased. Bullish: Has to break above /05 for a move to the target at We just turned bullish yesterday and there is no change to the view. USD touched a high of before plunging rapildy to a low of which is just above the stop-loss /05 is clearly a strong resistance now and a break above this level could lead to acceleration higher towards our target. Benchmark Deposit Rate: 1.50% Last Change: -0.25% in Oct 2015 Benchmark Lending Rate: 4.35% Last Change: -0.25% in Oct 2015 Reserve Requirement Ratio: 17.50% Last Change: -0.50% in Oct 2015 GDP YoY: +7.0% in 2Q % in 3Q15 4Q15 Release: 19-Jan-16 Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 47.2 in Sep 48.3 in Oct Nov Release: 01-Dec-15 NBS Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 in Sep 49.8 in Oct Nov Release: 01-Dec-15 PPI YoY: -5.9% in Sep -5.9% in Oct Oct Release: 09-Dec-15 CPI YoY: +1.6% in Sep +1.3% in Oct Oct Release: 09-Dec-15 Trade Balance: +60.3b in Sep +61.6b in Oct Nov Release: 08-Dec-15 Export: -3.7% in Sep -6.9% in Oct Nov Release: 08-Dec-15 Import: -20.4% in Sep -18.8% in Oct Nov Release: 08-Dec-15 UOB FX (USD/CNY) Forecast: end 4Q15: 6.40 end 1Q16: 6.45 end 2Q16: end 3Q16: 6.47 UOB Benchmark Lending Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 4.35% end 1Q16: 4.35% end 2Q16: 4.35% end 3Q16: 4.35% 6 P a g e

7 EUR/USD: EUR understandably bore the brunt of the post-attacks selling, but came off its lows of as the rally on Wall Street calmed nerves. Today s main economic releases are the German and EU-wide ZEW surveys. Sentiment carries little weight in light of what is to come at the December ECB meeting, so perhaps in this instance, only current conditions will be of any material interest. Italian trade data for September will be rolled out as well. In line with expectations, EUR held below before moving lower to test last week s low near /75. Downward momentum remains strong and the current weakness could extend further to the next support near Resistance is at ahead of the overnight high near /50. Bearish: Bearish phase is intact but look to book some profit nearer to [No change in view, see previous update below. Stop-loss at now] While the bearish phase that started earlier this month is still intact, the current movement is quickly approaching oversold and the next major support at would not be easy to crack. In other words, those who are short may likely to book some profit near to Stop-loss remains unchanged at even though is already a strong short-term resistance. INDICATORS Refinancing Rate: 0.05% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 Next ECB Meeting: 03-Dec-15 Deposit Rate: -0.2% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 Lending Rate: 0.3% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 GDP QoQ: +0.4% in 2Q % in 3Q15 3Q15 Release (2 nd release): 04-Dec-15 CPI YoY: -0.1% in Sep 0.0% in Oct Nov Release: 02-Dec-15 Unemployment: 11.0% in Aug 10.8% in Sep Oct Release: 01-Dec-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.12 end 1Q16: 1.13 end 2Q16: 1.13 end 3Q16: 1.14 UOB Refinancing Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.00% end 1Q16: 0.00% end 2Q16: 0.00% end 3Q16: 0.00% 7 P a g e

8 GBP/USD: Markets will wrestle with October CPI numbers in the UK today, which are expected to show a modest increase in inflation at +0.1% m/m which would leave annual CPI flat at 1.0% y/y. Recall that in its November inflation report forecast, the BoE again lowered both the short and medium term outlook for inflation. The policymakers judged that inflation should remain below 1% until the second half of next year, reflecting the continuing drag from commodity and other imported prices. GBP traded sideways as expected albeit at a narrower range than anticipated. Neutral indicators continue to suggest range trading for today, likely between and Bearish: Continue to target a move to [No change in view, see previous update below] While there is no change to the current bearish GBP view, the short term consolidation over the past few trading days has led to a quick loss in downward momentum. However, only a break above the stop-loss at would indicate that a short-term low is in place. Otherwise, a move to cannot be ruled out just yet. Bank Rate: 0.50% Last Change: -0.50% in Mar 2009 Next BOE Meeting: 10-Dec-15 GDP QoQ: +0.7% in 2Q % in 3Q15 3Q15 Release ( 2 nd release): 27-Nov-15 CPI YoY: +0.0% in Aug -0.1% in Sep Oct Release: 17-Nov-15 exp: -0.1% Unemployment: 5.4% in Aug 5.3% in Sep Oct Release: 16-Dec-15 Services PMI: 53.3 in Sep 54.9 in Oct Nov Release: 03-Dec-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.58 end 1Q16: 1.60 end 2Q16: 1.61 end 3Q16: 1.62 UOB Bank Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.5% end 1Q16: 0.75% end 2Q16: 0.75% end 3Q16: 0.75% 8 P a g e

9 AUD/USD: According to the minutes from the RBA s last policy meeting released earlier this morning, weaker inflation settings have given the central bank greater scope to ease monetary policy if growth looks to be deteriorating. However, central bankers are now slightly more optimistic about the growth outlook, with trends in employment and consumption more encouraging of late. Whilst job growth has fluctuated from month-to-month over the last year, the jobless rate has held broadly steady around 6%, exceeding the RBA s previous expectations. The expected AUD weakness did not reach the target indicated at /75 yesterday (low of ). While downward momentum is not strong, the current weakness could still test before a recovery can be expected. Strong resistance is still at Neutral: In a / range for now. [No change in view, see previous update below] The recent movement in AUD lack impulsiveness and at this stage, this pair is expected to continue to trade between and Cash Rate: 2.00% Last Change: -0.25% in May 2015 Next RBA Meeting: 01-Dec % in Feb 2015 Next RBA Meeting (minutes): 17-Nov-15 GDP QoQ: +0.9% in 1Q % in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 02-Dec-15 CPI YoY: +1.5% in 2Q % in 3Q15 4Q15 Release: 27-Jan-16 Unemployment: 6.2% in Aug 6.2% in Sep Oct Release: 12-Nov-15 Capex: -4.7% 1Q15-4.0% 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 26-Nov-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.71 end 1Q16: 0.71 end 2Q16: 0.70 end 3Q16: 0.69 UOB Cash Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 2.00% end 1Q16: 2.00% end 2Q16: 2.00% end 3Q16: 2.00% NZD/USD: In New Zealand, the volume of retail spending grew 1.6% qoq in Q3, slightly above expectations, following a pause in growth in Q2. Rapid population growth continued to drive spending on durables (sales of motor vehicle and electronic goods grew strongly in Q3) and in the Auckland region in particular, further aided by ongoing price declines in the sector (the retail trade deflator fell 0.2% q/q, 1.0% y/y). The BNZ-Business NZ service sector PMI fell to an eight-month low of 56.2 in October, however. This suggests that spending may have started Q4 on a slightly weaker note (perhaps associated with the abrupt slowdown in Auckland house sales during the month). Attention will now turn to the global dairy price index, after dairy prices experienced the first sign of slowing momentum on 3 November, following a streak of six auctions with rising prices. The weakness in NZD exceeded our expectation by easily breaking below the strong /00 support to touch an overnight low of Despite being oversold, further down-move is still likely. Barring a move back above /20, another leg lower to /60 would not be surprising. Bearish: target could be met soon. As pointed out yesterday, the recent short-term consolidation is likely a prelude for a deeper down-move. The break below yesterday bodes well for our bearish view and our target at could be met soon. The next support below is near Stop-loss has been adjusted lower to from Official Cash Rate: 2.75% Last Change: -0.25% in Aug 2015 Next RBNZ Meeting: 10-Dec % in Jul % in Jun 2015 GDP QoQ: +0.2% in 1Q % in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 17-Dec-15 CPI QoQ: +0.4% in 2Q % in 3Q15 4Q15 Release: 20-Jan-16 Unemployment: 5.9% in 2Q15 6.0% in 3Q15 4Q15 Release: 03-Feb-16 UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.62 end 1Q16: 0.61 end 2Q16: 0.60 end 3Q16: 0.60 UOB Official Cash Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 2.50% end 1Q16: 2.50% end 2Q16: 2.50% end 3Q16: 2.50% 9 P a g e

10 USD/JPY: JPY initially gained during the Asian session on Monday as markets responded to the Paris attacks, eclipsing the poor Q3 Japanese GDP. However the gains were later surrendered as Wall Street climbed and as markets refocused on the poor GDP report. The Japanese economy contracted for the second quarter in a row in the July-September period, putting the country back in recession for the second time in two years. GDP contracted 0.2% after shrinking a revised 0.2% in the June quarter. Markets were expecting a 0.1% decline in GDP. The soft figures clearly confirm that the economy is in need of another boost, which is likely to make policymakers reconsider the next step for Japan. Against our expectations, USD rose strongly to take out the strong resistance at /00. The rally appears incomplete and could extend higher to test last week s peak near Strong support at is expected to hold for today. Bullish: Target with stop-loss. [See Chart of the Day on page 1] Overnight Call Rate: % Last Change: -0.20% in Dec 2008 Next BOJ Meeting: 19-Nov-15 GDP QoQ Annualized: -0.7% in 2Q15-0.8% in 3Q15 3Q15 Release (2 nd reading): 07-Dec-15 CPI Core YoY: -0.1% in Aug -0.1% in Sep Sep Release: 27-Nov-15 Industrial Production MoM: -1.2% in Aug +1.0% in Sep Oct Release: 30-Nov-15 Household Spending: +2.9% in Aug -0.4% in Sep Aug Release: 27-Nov-15 UOB FX forecast: end 4Q15: 124 end 1Q16: 126 end 2Q16: 127 end 3Q16: 128 UOB Overnight Call Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: % end 1Q16: % end 2Q16: % end 3Q16: % UOB FX & Interest Rate Outlook FX Outlook 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Rates Outlook 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 EUR/USD *EU 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% GBP/USD UK 0.5% 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% AUD/USD AU 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% NZD/USD NZ 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% USD/JPY JP 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% USD/SGD SG 1.15% 1.20% 1.25% 1.35% USD/MYR MY 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% USD/THB TH 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% USD/CNY CN 4.35% 4.35% 4.35% 4.35% USD/IDR ID 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% USD/PHP PH 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% USD/INR IN 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% USD/TWD TW 1.63% 1.63% 1.63% 1.63% USD/HKD HK 0.75% 1.00% 1.25% 1.50% USD/KRW KR 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.75% US 0.5% 0.75% 1.00% 1.25% *Last Updated on 23 Oct P a g e

11 17-Nov-15 FX Pairs Spot Outlook Since Rate Summary of Views Target Trailing-Stop Support Resistance USD/SGD Bullish EUR/SGD Neutral GBP/SGD Neutral AUD/SGD Bullish JPY/SGD Neutral USD/MYR Bullish USD/THB Bullish USD/CNH Bullish EUR/USD Bearish GBP/USD Bearish AUD/USD Neutral NZD/USD Bearish USD/JPY Bullish 12 Nov Nov Oct Nov Oct Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: *Change in outlook. FX Pairs Ranges for 16-Nov-15 Performance* Open High Low Close 1-day 1-week 1-month YTD** USD/SGD % -0.00% +2.44% +7.23% EUR/SGD % -0.64% -3.34% -5.23% GBP/SGD % +0.52% +0.69% +4.71% AUD/SGD % +0.68% +0.24% -6.81% JPY/SGD % -0.02% -0.62% +4.25% USD/MYR % +0.30% +4.18% +25.3% USD/THB % +0.16% +1.52% +9.30% USD/CNH % +0.15% +0.17% +2.94% EUR/USD % -0.60% -5.65% -11.6% GBP/USD % +0.59% -1.67% -2.38% AUD/USD % +0.66% -2.09% -13.0% NZD/USD % -0.59% -4.41% -16.7% USD/JPY % -0.01% +3.07% +2.89% * Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price 1-period ago. ** Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price on 31-Dec-14. Disclaimer: This analysis is based on information available to the public. Although the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, UOB Group makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness. Also, opinions and predictions contained herein reflect our opinion as of date of the analysis and are subject to change without notice. UOB Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in, currencies and financial products mentioned herein. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, without reliance upon UOB Group or its affiliates, the reader should determine, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences, of the transaction and that the reader is able to assume these risks. This document and its contents are proprietary information and products of UOB Group and may not be reproduced or otherwise. Singapore Company Reg No Z

FX Insights. Chart Of The Day USD/JPY: Next significant support at Friday, 29 April 2016

FX Insights. Chart Of The Day USD/JPY: Next significant support at Friday, 29 April 2016 Quek Ser Leang Quek.SerLeang@uobgroup.com Lee Sue Ann Lee.SueAnn@uobgroup.com Global Economics & Markets Research Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Chart Of The Day