Chart Of The Day GBP/USD: Overnight rally is likely the early stages of a sustained rally that is expected to extend to

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Chart Of The Day GBP/USD: Overnight rally is likely the early stages of a sustained rally that is expected to extend to"

Toby Morris
6 years ago
Views:

1 Global Economics & Markets Research Quek Ser Leang Lee Sue Ann Tuesday, 25 August 2015 FX Insights Chart Of The Day GBP/USD: Overnight rally is likely the early stages of a sustained rally that is expected to extend to We have been warning about a possible break higher in GBP since last week (see Chart of the Day on 20/8/15). As pointed out in the update, a clear break above could lead to a rapid rise to We have seen an overnight high of and the up-move appears to be far from over. The rally is likely the early stages of a sustained up-move that is expected to extend higher towards the year-todate high near In order to maintain the current momentum, any short-term pull-back is expected to hold above but only a break below would indicate that our bullish view is wrong.

2 Tuesday, 25 August 2015 Page 2 OVERVIEW It wasn t pretty at all on Monday. The 8.5% fall in the Shanghai composite equity market index again brought the importance of the stock market as a policy driver to the fore. Steep losses were seen on Wall Street as the major indexes plunged more than 3.5%. At one point, the Dow Jones fell as much as 1,089 points, making Monday's move its biggest intraday swing in history. Although the S&P 500 was off session lows of about 104 points lower but the index is still in correction territory. The greenback took on a split personality, falling against the JPY, EUR and CHF but soaring against the currencies of commodity-producing countries, such as AUD and NZD, amid another crushing selloff in commodities that brought new lows in everything from oil to copper. The CBOE Volatility Index skyrocketed to its highest level since January 2009 the highest recorded level in the session was US Treasuries were comparatively muted though, with both the 2-year and 10-year yields dropped 4bps. Fed Funds Rate: % Last Change: -0.75% in Dec 08 Next FOMC Meeting: 17-Sep-15 GDP QoQ: +0.6% in 1Q % in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2nd estimate): 27-Aug-15 PCE Price Index YoY: +0.2% in May +0.3% in Jun Jul Release: 28-Aug-15 Core PCE Price Index YoY: +1.2% in May +1.3% in Jun Jul Release: 28-Aug-15 Unemployment: +5.3% in Jun +5.3% in Jul Aug Release: 04-Sep-15 Nonfarm payroll: +231k in Jun +215k in Jul Aug Release: 04-Sep-15 Retail Sales: +0.0% in Jun +0.6% in Jul Aug Release: 11-Sep-15 Retail Sales ex autos: +0.4% in Jun +0.4% in Jul Aug Release: 11-Sep-15 Durable Goods: -2.1% in May +3.4% in Jun Jul Release: 26-Aug-15 Durable Goods ex autos: -0.1% in May +0.8% in Jun Jul Release: 26-Aug-15 Housing Starts: +1204k in Jun +1206k in Jul Aug Release: 17-Sep-15 Case Shiller 20-City Index: +5.0% in Apr +4.9% in May Jun Release: 25-Aug-15 exp: +5.1% UoM Consumer Confidence: 93.1 in Jul 92.9 in Aug Sep Release: 11-Sep-15 UOB Fed Funds Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.50% end 4Q15: 0.75% end 1Q16: 1.00% end 2Q16: 1.25%

3 Tuesday, 25 August 2015 Page 3 USD/SGD: SGD saw a choppy session on Monday as risk aversion went full blast, with the USD/SGD hitting lows of late evening as selloff continued in the London/NY session, after seeing high of in the morning. The pair settled around , marginally higher vs on Friday. With sentiment remaining fragile, more fluctuations are expected to be in store for the pair. Against the MYR, SGD hit as high as high as ringgit on Monday morning, breaking past the psychological 3.0 level before coming off marginally below. Singapore CPI report for July yesterday showed a mixed picture, with weak headline but marginally stronger core CPI readings. Our base case is for the MAS to maintain their current monetary stance of a modest and gradual appreciation of the SGD NEER unchanged at our estimated 1.0% pa rate in the next policy meeting in October. But if the downside risk on expected core inflation increases, some policy actions (such as a lowering of the SGD NEER midpoint) could be expected. We maintain our USD/SGD forecast for end 2015 at 1.43/USD. This morning, SGD NEER index eased further to -1.4% below the midpoint, from -1.3% on Monday on account of further strength in EUR and JPY overnight. The -0.5% to -1.5% range below the midpoint remains valid for now, which implies USD/SGD range of and any further weakness would see the S$ index approaching the -2.0% level, or for the USD/SGD. While USD moved higher as expected, the subsequent sharp drop from the high of was unexpected. The quick drop indicates that the recent upward pressure has eased and the current movement is likely the start of a short-term consolidation phase. Expect sideway trading today, likely between and Bullish: In a short-term consolidation but expect eventual USD strength at a later stage. USD edged above the recent peak of (high of ) before pulling back sharply. The current movement is likely a short-term consolidation phase that is expected to lead to further USD strength in the coming days. Only a move below would indicate that our bullish view is wrong. S$NEER Last Change: Reduced the slope of the policy band (Jan 2015) Next MAS Meeting: Oct 15 (date yet to be announced) GDP YoY: +2.8% in 1Q % in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 14-Oct-15 CPI YoY: -0.3% in Jun -0.4% in Jul Jul Release: 23-Sep-15 NODX: +4.5% in Jun -0.8% in Jul Aug Release: 17-Sep-15 Industrial Production: -1.7% in May -4.4% in Jun Jun Release: 26-Aug-15 exp: -3.2% UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.45 end 4Q15: 1.43 end 1Q16: 1.45 end 2Q16: 1.46 UOB 3M SIBOR Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.25% end 4Q15: 1.15% end 1Q16: 1.22% end 2Q16: 1.27% UOB 3M SOR Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.35% end 4Q15: 1.25% end 1Q16: 1.30% end 2Q16: 1.35%

4 Tuesday, 25 August 2015 Page 4 EUR/SGD: While the spectacular rally in EUR appears to have scope to extend higher in the coming days, the surge to a high of /25 yesterday is over-extended and a clear break above this level is not expected for today. From here, allow for a dip to but is expected to hold for a move to GBP/SGD: The target indicated yesterday was exceeded with a high of Upward momentum remains strong and the current up-move is expected to extend higher to Strong support is at Bullish: Bullish phase over-extended, stop-loss moved higher aggressively to As pointed yesterday, impulsive momentum indicates much higher levels in the coming days. EUR rallied spectacularly to touch a high of /25. While further up-move is not ruled out, the bullish phase that started late last month is over-extended and any further gains will likely be at a slower pace. From here, we are moving up our stop-loss aggressively to from yesterday. The next resistance above is near Bullish: Target next. As pointed out yesterday, a break above will target next. We have seen a high of and at this stage, there is no sign that this pair is about to top out any time soon. We remain a bullish with a stop-loss at (from ). AUD/SGD: The unexpected break below the major support sent the AUD reeling to a low of While a repeat of the dizzying drop yesterday appears unlikely, the downward pressure is intact and any rebound is expected to hold below JPY/SGD: JPY soared through major resistances to levels not seen since August last year. While we are not ruling out the further JPY strength in coming days, the rally yesterday appears to be extremely overstretched and a move back above the overnight high of /10 is unlikely. From here, allow for a dip to but is expected to hold for a move to Bearish: Likely seen bulk of down-move but another leg lower to retest the year s low near is likely. The break below the key support of led to a sharp drop to a low of While the outlook for AUD is clearly bearish, we believe we have seen bulk of the down-move. That said, another leg lower to retest the year s low near cannot be ruled out. Stop-loss is at Bullish: Rally extremely overbought; pushing up stop-loss for bullish view to As pointed out in the Chart of the Day update yesterday, impulsive momentum suggests that the current JPY strength is likely part of a major mid to long-term bullish reversal. That said, the sharp rise to an overnight high of /10 is extremely over-extended and from here, we are content to move our stop-loss higher to from

5 Tuesday, 25 August 2015 Page 5 USD/MYR: The free fall in the MYR continued as MYR fell 1.1% to /USD and reached low of on Monday, the weakest level since Aug 1998, as both domestic political uncertainty and declines in crude oil prices pushed the ringgit down 18% so far in 2015, the worst performing Asian currency. Malaysia s leading economic index increased by 0.8% y/y in June after declining by 0.2% y/y May; the coincident index rose by 1.2% y/y in June after 1.5% y/y in May. Bullish: Next resistance is at , followed by USD is still clearly bullish. The next resistance is at followed by We continue to move our stop-loss higher to from yesterday. Overnight Policy Rate: 3.25% Last Change: +0.25% in Jul 2014 Next BNM Meeting: 03-Sep-15 GDP YoY: +5.6% in 1Q % in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 12-Nov-15 CPI YoY: +2.5% in Jun +3.3% in Jul Aug Release: 23-Sep-15 Trade Balance: +5.5b in May +7.98b in Jun Jul Release: 04-Sep-15 Export: -6.7% in May +5.0% in Jun Jul Release: 04-Sep-15 Import: -7.2% in May -1.5% in Jun Jul Release: 04-Sep-15 Industrial Production: +4.5% in May +4.3% in Jun Jul Release: 10-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 4.26 end 4Q15: 4.20 end 1Q16: 4.18 end 2Q16: 4.15 UOB Overnight Policy Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 3.25% end 4Q15: 3.25% end 1Q16: 3.25% end 2Q16: 3.25% USD/THB: THB was relatively flat at /USD, this morning seen supported above the figure. Thailand s King Bhumibol Adulyadej on Thursday endorsed a new cabinet line-up, introducing 11 new faces, including two more army generals. Nine current ministers have been reshuffled to different portfolios under PM Prayut Chan-ocha. Fifteen ministers retained their position, while 11 ministers left the government, in the biggest reshuffle since the 22 May coup last year. Bullish: target met; sharp pull-back warning of a possible short-term top. THB eased 0.2% to /USD, for its sixth straight day of losses, the longest stretch since 24 July. The NESB said that the unemployment rate fell to 0.88% in Q215 from 1.00% in Q214; total number of unemployed stood at 336k in Q215; employment in agricultural sector declined by 5.8% y/y in Q215 due to drought; employment in non-agricultural sector rose by 2.6% y/y in Q215 due to increased hiring in the construction, manufacturing and hotel sectors; the government is monitoring household debt in rural areas as lower prices of agricultural goods may hurt debt-servicing. 1-Day Repo Rate: 1.50% Last Change: -0.25% in Apr 2015 Next BOT Meeting: 16-Sep-15 GDP YoY: +3.0% in 1Q % in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 17-Nov-15 CPI YoY: -1.07% in Jun -1.05% in Jul May Release: 01-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 35.5 end 4Q15: 35.5 end 1Q16: 35.8 end 2Q16: 36.0 UOB 1-Day Repo Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.50% end 4Q15: 1.50% end 1Q16: 1.75% end 2Q16: 2.00%

6 Tuesday, 25 August 2015 Page 6 USD/CNH: RMB fell 0.25% to /USD on Monday whilst offshore CNH slipped 0.56% to with no signs of large state banks selling dollars as was seen in the last week and despite a minor 0.04% gain in the central parity to /USD in the morning, as US Treasury said over the weekend that the US was closely monitoring the change in China s currency regime. Whilst there was no policy action from PBoC over the weekend, expectations remain for a RRR cut within these two weeks as the central bank has stayed on the sidelines since late June on policy easing front. Cuts in the RRR are likely to have gathered momentum after the Shanghai Composite plunged 8.49% on Monday for its biggest daily loss since 27 Feb This morning, PBOC set the CNY reference rate at against the USD. While USD appreciated as expected, the subsequent sharp drop from the high has resulted in a mixed outlook for today. The immediate pressure is still on the upside but any up-move is likely limited to a retest of the high. Only a move back below would indicate that the upward pressure has eased. Bullish: Outlook is still bullish. USD traded mostly sideways for the past one week or so. In view of the sharp spike higher after the CNY devaluation, the outlook is still bullish but a move above the appears unlikely, at least not for the next 1 to 2 weeks. Overall, only a move back below would indicate that a deeper pull-back has started. Benchmark Deposit Rate: 2.00% Last Change: -0.25% in Jun 2015 Benchmark Lending Rate: 4.85% Last Change: -0.25% in Jun 2015 Reserve Requirement Ratio: 18.5% Last Change: -1.00% in Apr 2015 GDP YoY: +7.0% in 1Q % in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 19-Oct-15 Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 47.8 in Jul 47.1 in Aug Sep Release: 23-Sep-15 NBS Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 in Jun 50.0 in Jul Jul Release: 01-Sep-15 PPI YoY: -4.8% in Jun -5.4% in Jul Aug Release: 09-Sep-15 CPI YoY: +1.4% in Jun +1.6% in Jul Aug Release: 09-Sep-15 Trade Balance: in Jun +43.0b in Jul Aug Release: 08-Sep-15 Export: +2.8% in Jun -8.3% in Jul Aug Release: 08-Sep-15 Import: -6.1% in Jun -8.1% in Jul Aug Release: 08-Sep-15 UOB FX (USD/CNY) Forecast: end 3Q15: 6.40 end 4Q15: 6.45 end 1Q16: 6.48 end 2Q16: 6.53 UOB Benchmark Lending Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 4.60% end 4Q15: 4.60% end 1Q16: 4.60% end 2Q16: 4.60%

7 Tuesday, 25 August 2015 Page 7 EUR/USD: EUR went to as high as before giving back nearly two-thirds of its gains. Still, the pair remains strongly above the figure despite fresh worries on Greece. The nation is heading for snap elections after Greek PM Alexis Tsipras stepped down last week. For now, we will be getting a fresh look at the German 2Q GDP numbers as well as August's IFO survey. Expectations are for the business climate index to come in at from 108.0, current conditions to remain little changed from 113.9, and business expectations to from August BNB business sentiment from Belgium will be also rolled out. The anticipated EUR strength exceeded our expectation by a huge margin touching an overnight high of Despite the sharp pull-back from the high, impulsive upward momentum suggests that it is too early to expect a top. From here, allow for a dip to but is expected to hold for a move to Bullish: Extremely overbought but further EUR gains not ruled out. Stop-loss is at now. As pointed out yesterday, EUR should not have much difficulty moving to /70. The sharp rally to a high of /15 appears to be a blow-off but barring a move back below ; further EUR gains cannot be ruled out just yet. The next resistance above is at , a major mid to long-term resistance. INDICATORS Refinancing Rate: 0.05% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 Next ECB Meeting: 03-Sep-15 Deposit Rate: -0.2% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 Lending Rate: 0.3% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 GDP QoQ: +0.4% in 1Q % in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2 nd est): 04-Sep-15 CPI YoY: +0.2% in Jun +0.2% in Jul Aug Release: 31-Aug-15 Unemployment: 11.1% in Jun 11.1% in Jul May Release: 01-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.09 end 4Q15: 1.10 end 1Q16: 1.12 end 2Q16: 1.12 UOB Refinancing Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.05% end 4Q15: 0.05% end 1Q16: 0.05% end 2Q16: 0.05%

8 Tuesday, 25 August 2015 Page 8 GBP/USD: GBP firmed to over as the CBI raised its 2015 & 2016 growth forecasts by 0.2% & 0.3% respectively, and brought forward its forecast for a BoE rate hike from Q2 to Q The rally faltered thereafter with the pair now around the region. Markets are focused on the release of preliminary 2Q GDP in the UK a well as BoE Governor Mark Carney s speech at Jackson Hole later this week. In line with expectation, GBP dipped to but the subsequent up-move from the low exceeded our expectation by breaking above the major resistance. The down-move from the high appears to be a corrective pull-back and upward pressure is expected to persist for today. From here, expect any pull-back to hold above /20 for another leg higher to Bullish: Overnight rally is likely the early stages of a sustained rally that is expected to extend to [See Chart of the Day on page 1] Bank Rate: 0.50% Last Change: -0.50% in Mar 2009 Next BOE Meeting: 10-Sep-15 GDP QoQ: +0.4% in 1Q % in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2 nd estimate): 28-Aug-15 exp +0.7% CPI YoY: +0.0% in Jun 0.1% in Jul Aug Release: 15-Sep-15 Unemployment: 5.6% in May 5.6% in Jun Jul Release: 16-Sep-15 Services PMI: 58.5 in Jun 57.4 in Jul Aug Release: 03-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.60 end 4Q15: 1.62 end 1Q16: 1.64 end 2Q16: 1.67 UOB Bank Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.5% end 4Q15: 0.5% end 1Q16: 0.5% end 2Q16: 0.75%

9 Tuesday, 25 August 2015 Page 9 AUD/USD: AUD is seen rebounding from a 2009-low of with gains in oil prices and a return of risk sentiment helping to support the economy. The Australian economic docket looks quiet today, so we expect the pair to trade off broader risk appetite. AUD dropped in a spectacular manner to touch a low of before snapping higher but still closed well below the key level of While a move below /45 appears unlikely for today, the downward pressure is intact and only a move back above would indicate that an interim low is in place. Neutral: Expect choppy trading between and The sharp drop to a low of and subsequent equally vicious rebound suggests the drop yesterday is likely a blow-off. We prefer to hold a neutral for now and expect choppy trading between and Cash Rate: 2.00% Last Change: -0.25% in May 2015 Next RBA Meeting: 01-Sep-15 GDP QoQ: +0.5% in 4Q % in 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 03-Sep-15 CPI YoY: +1.3% in 1Q % in 2Q15 2Q15 Release: 28-Oct-15 Unemployment: 6.1% in Jun 6.3% in Jul Jul Release: 11-Sep-15 Trade Balance: -2750m in May -2933m in Jun Jul Release: 03-Sep-15 Capex: -2.2% 4Q14-4.4% 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 27-Aug-15 exp: -2.5% UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.75 end 4Q15: 0.74 end 1Q16: 0.74 end 2Q16: 0.73 UOB Cash Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 2.00% end 4Q15: 2.00% end 1Q16: 2.00% end 2Q16: 2.00% NZD/USD: NZD is also holding up this morning after crumbling to its weakest in six years as markets panicked over the deteriorating situation in China, New Zealand s biggest export market. Another factor weighing was the RBNZ s outlook. Yesterday, RBNZ Deputy Governor Grant Spencer told an audience in Auckland that interest rate increases are likely to be off the table for some time due to the current weakness in export prices, economic activity and inflation. Later today, the RBNZ will release its latest surveys of consumer and business expectations, including expectations with regard to consumer prices, wages and house prices. Expectation for sideway trading was clearly wrong as NZD plunged to levels not seen since June The sharp snap-back from the low suggests that the drop is over-extended and further sustained down-move is unlikely. From here, allow for a rebound to but is expected cap for a move to Neutral: Expect choppy trading between and Similar to AUD, the sharp drop in NZD yesterday appears to be a blow-off. We hold a neutral view for now and expect this pair to choppily between and for the next one week or so. Official Cash Rate: 3.00% Last Change: -0.25% in Jul 2015 Next RBNZ Meeting: 10-Sep-15 GDP QoQ: +0.8% in 4Q % in 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 17-Sep-15 CPI QoQ: -0.3% in 1Q % in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 23-Oct-15 Unemployment: 5.8% in 1Q15 5.9% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 04-Nov-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.66 end 4Q15: 0.64 end 1Q16: 0.63 end 2Q16: 0.62 UOB Official Cash Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 2.75% end 4Q15: 2.50% end 1Q16: 2.50% end 2Q16: 2.50%

10 Tuesday, 25 August 2015 Page 10 USD/JPY: The most dramatic price action was seen for the JPY. The pair plunged sharply to lows of on Monday before seeing a recovery over as equities came off the lows. Japan s final leading index was down 0.7pts to in June whilst the coincident index was up 0.3pts to for the month. Cautious markets should see the JPY supported, although we are seeing some composure in the USD/JPY pair this morning. Our bearish target was exceeded by a huge margin as USD crashed to a low of (on EBS). While further USD weakness is not ruled out in coming days, the sharp drop is severely over-extended and a move back below is unlikely for today. From here, allow for a rebound to but is expected to cap for a move to Bearish: Oversold but further USD weakness towards last month s low at /40 cannot be ruled out. While we turned bearish yesterday, the extent of the sharp of the sharp drop took us by surprise. While further USD weakness is not ruled out, the down-move is over-extended and a move below the low is unlikely, at least not for the next couple of days. We have moved the stop-loss lower to from yesterday. Overnight Call Rate: % Last Change: -0.20% in Dec 2008 Next BOJ Meeting: 15-Sep-15 GDP QoQ Annualized: +4.5% in 1Q15-1.6% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2 nd reading): 08-Sep-15 CPI Core YoY: +0.1% in May +0.1% in Jun Jul Release: 28-Aug-15 exp: -0.2% Industrial Production MoM: -2.1% in May +0.8% in Jun Jul Release: 31-Aug-15 Household Spending: +4.8% in May -2.0% in Jun Jul Release: 28-Aug-15 exp: +1.3% UOB FX forecast: end 3Q15: 126 end 4Q15: 127 end 1Q16: 129 end 2Q16: 130 UOB Overnight Call Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: % end 4Q15: % end 1Q16: % end 2Q16: % UOB FX and Interest Rate Outlook FX Outlook 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Last updated: 24 Aug 15 Rates Outlook 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 EUR/USD EU 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% GBP/USD UK 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.75% AUD/USD AU 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% USD/JPY JP 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% USD/SGD SG 1.25% 1.15% 1.22% 1.27% USD/MYR MY 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% USD/THB TH 1.50% 1.50% 1.75% 2.00% USD/CNY CN 4.60% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% USD/IDR ID 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% USD/PHP PH 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% USD/INR IN 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% USD/TWD TW 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% USD/HKD HK 0.75% 1.00% 1.25% 1.50% USD/KRW KR 4.85% 4.85% 4.85% 4.85% US 0.5% 0.75% 1.00% 1.25%

11 Tuesday, 25 August 2015 Page Aug-15 FX Pairs Spot Outlook USD/SGD Bullish EUR/SGD Bullish GBP/SGD Bullish AUD/SGD Bearish JPY/SGD Bullish USD/MYR Bullish USD/THB Bullish USD/CNH Bullish EUR/USD Bullish GBP/USD Bullish AUD/USD Neutral NZD/USD Neutral USD/JPY Bearish Summary of Views Since Rate 24 Aug Jul Aug Aug Aug Jul Aug Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Target Trailing-stop Support Resistance S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: S1: S2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: R1: R2: FX Pairs Ranges for 24-Aug-15 * Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price 1-period ago. ** Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price on 31-Dec-14. Performance* Open High Low Close 1-day 1-week 1-month YTD** USD/SGD % +0.18% +2.98% +6.32% EUR/SGD % +5.10% +7.97% +2.18% GBP/SGD % +1.41% +4.50% +7.75% AUD/SGD % -2.67% +1.48% -6.78% JPY/SGD % +5.20% +7.25% +7.50% USD/MYR % +3.81% +11.5% +21.8% USD/THB % +0.39% +2.29% +8.35% USD/CNH % +0.75% +4.38% +4.42% EUR/USD % +4.85% +4.75% -3.95% GBP/USD % +1.23% +1.42% +1.30% AUD/USD % -2.94% -1.56% -12.3% NZD/USD % -1.41% -1.93% -16.9% USD/JPY % -4.81% -3.91% -1.07% Disclaimer: This analysis is based on information available to the public. Although the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, UOB Group makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness. Also, opinions and predictions contained herein reflect our opinion as of date of the analysis and are subject to change without notice. UOB Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in, currencies and financial products mentioned herein. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, without reliance upon UOB Group or its affiliates, the reader should determine, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences, of the transaction and that the reader is able to assume these risks. This document and its contents are proprietary information and products of UOB Group and may not be reproduced or otherwise.

FX Insights. Chart Of The Day USD/JPY: Next significant support at Friday, 29 April 2016

FX Insights. Chart Of The Day USD/JPY: Next significant support at Friday, 29 April 2016 Quek Ser Leang Quek.SerLeang@uobgroup.com Lee Sue Ann Lee.SueAnn@uobgroup.com Global Economics & Markets Research Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Chart Of The Day