Weekly FX Focus 24/9/2018
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- Claribel Boone
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1 Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation and investment experience. Investment involves risk. Loss may be incurred as well as profits made as a result of buying and selling investment products. Currency conversion risk - the value of your foreign currency and RMB deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and RMB deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and RMB, you may suffer loss in principal. RMB is currently not freely convertible and subject to regulatory restrictions (which might be changed from time to time). FX Focus:USD/CAD Last week, Canada manufacturing sales was higher than expected in July and WTI oil price once rose to almost 4 months high, CAD rallied. Last week, USDCAD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's July GDP. Currency AUD EUR GBP Current Trend Support / Resistance vs USD.7147 /.7368 vs USD vs USD / / Market commentary Last week, RBA said GDP growth likely to remain above potential. Last week, AUDUSD once touched.74 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's September Melbourne Institute inflation index. Last week, Eurozone CPI was as expected in August. Last week, EURUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Eurozone August M3 money supply. Last week, BREXIT negotiation optimism once boosted GBPUSD to level. Last week, GBPUSD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be UK's 2Q GDP final value. NZD vs USD.6556 /.6755 RMB CAD JPY CHF SGD vs USD / Last week, Canada manufacturing sales was higher than expected in July and WTI oil price once rose vs USD / to almost 4 months high, CAD rallied. Last week, USDCAD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's July GDP. vs USD 11 / Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the USD Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the USD Last week, New Zealand GDP was higher than expected in Q2. Last week, NZDUSD once touched.6698 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's August trade balance. Last week, market concerned on Sino-US trade talk progress. Last week, USDCNH traded within the range of The upcoming release will be China's September Caixin manufacturing PMI. vs USD.9494 /.9721 Last week, SNB maintained benchmark interest rate unchanged in September. Last week, USDCHF once dropped to.954 levels. The upcoming release will be Switzerland's August retail sales. vs USD 1.35 / Last week, USDJPY traded within the range of The upcoming release will be Japan's August unemployment rate. Last week, Singapore non-oil domestic exports was higher than expected in August. Last week, USDSGD once dropped to 1.37 levels. The upcoming release will be Singapore's August industrial production figure. * Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 2-days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 5-day moving average, can be used if needed.
2 AUD RBA kept its interest rates unchanged at 1.5% in the September meeting. Last week, RBA said GDP growth likely to remain above potential. Last week, AUDUSD once touched.74 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's September Melbourne Institute inflation index. 24-Sep Weekly change: 1.2% 1.2% (+) Australia Q2 GDP rose 3.4% YoY, higher than an increase of 3.2% in previous quarter High (~) Australia Q2 CPI rose.4% YoY, same as previous quarter Low (~) Australia August unemployment rate arrived at 5.3%, same as previous month Support1* Support2* (-) Australia August Commodity Price Index arrived at 6.7%, lower than 7.5% in previous month Resistance1*.7368 Resistance2* AUD/SGD 6-month Chart AUD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.9 9 AUD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI EUR ECB September meeting kept interest rates unchanged and said QE might end by this year. Last week, Eurozone CPI was as expected in August. Last week, EURUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Eurozone August M3 money supply. 24-Sep Weekly change:.31%.31% (+) Germany Q2 GDP rose.5% QoQ, higher than an increase of.4% in previous quarter High (-) Eurozone August CPI rose 2% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.1% in previous month Low Support1* (-) Germany August manufacturing PMI arrived at 55.9, lower than 56.9 in previous month Support2* (+) Germany August Business Climate arrived at 13.8, higher than 11.7 in previous month Resistance1* Resistance2* EUR/SGD 6-month Chart EUR/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average EUR/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI
3 GBP BoE September meeting kept interest rates unchanged and warned that Brexit uncertainty is becoming a more significant problem for UK economy. Last week, BREXIT negotiation optimism once boosted GBPUSD to level. Last week, GBPUSD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be UK's 2Q GDP final value. 24-Sep Weekly change: -.64% -.64% High Low Support1* Support2* Resistance1* Resistance2* (+) UK Q2 GDP preliminary value rose 1.3% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.2% in previous quarter's advance result (+) UK August CPI rose.7% YoY, higher than kept flat in previous month (~) UK ILO July's 3Mths unemployment rate was at 4%, same as previous month (-) UK August Nationwide House Prices All Houses rose 2% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.5% in previous month GBP/SGD 6-month Chart GBP/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average GBP/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI NZD RBNZ kept official cash rate unchanged in August. The NZD rises following AUD on better market sentiment. Last week, New Zealand GDP was higher than expected in Q2. Last week, NZDUSD once touched.6698 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's August trade balance. 24-Sep Weekly change: 1.37% 1.37% (+) New Zealand Q2 GDP rose 2.8% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.6% in previous quarter High (+) New Zealand Q2 CPI rose 1.5% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.1% in previous quarter Low Support1* (-) New Zealand Q2 unemployment rate arrived at 4.5%, higher than 4.4% in previous quarter Support2* (+) New Zealand August Commodity Price Index arrived at -1.1%, dropped less than -3.3% in previous month Resistance1* Resistance2* NZD/SGD 6-month Chart NZD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.8 9 NZD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI
4 RMB PBOC official said the next step in exchange rate reform will be less government intervention in the exchange market and to widen the CNY trading band. Last week, market concerned on Sino-US trade talk progress. Last week, USDCNH traded within the range of The upcoming release will be China's September Caixin manufacturing PMI. 24-Sep Weekly change: -.55% -.55% (-) China Q2 GDP rose 6.7% YoY, lower than an increase of 6.8% in previous quarter High (+) China August CPI rose 2.3% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.1% in previous month Low (-) China August Caixin manufacturing PMI arrived at 5.6, lower than 5.8 in previous month Support1* Support2* (+) China August industrial production rose 6.1% YoY, higher than an increase of 6% in previous month Resistance1* Resistance2* RMB/SGD 6-month Chart RMB/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average RMB/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI CAD Bank of Canada maintained benchmark interest rate at 1.5% in September. Last week, Canada manufacturing sales was higher than expected in July and WTI oil price once rose to almost 4 months high, CAD rallied. Last week, USDCAD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's July GDP. ` 24-Sep Weekly change:.18%.18% (-) Canada June GDP rose 2.4% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.7% in previous month High (+) Canada July CPI rose 3% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.5% in previous month Low Support1* (-) Canada August unemployment rate arrived at 6%, higher than 5.8% in previous month Support2* (-) Canada August Manufacturing PMI arrived at 56.8, lower than 56.9 in previous month Resistance1* Resistance2* CAD/SGD 6-month Chart CAD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.95 9 CAD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI
5 JPY BOJ kept interest rate unchanged in July, but lowered the inflation forecast for 218, 219 and 22. Last week, USDJPY traded within the range of The upcoming release will be Japan's August unemployment rate. 24-Sep Weekly change: -1.18% -1.18% High Low Support1* Support2* Resistance1* Resistance2* (+) Japan Q2 GDP rose 1.3% YoY, higher than an increase of 1% in previous quarter (+) Japan August CPI nationwide ex fresh food rose 1.3% YoY, higher than an increase of.9% in previous month (+) Japan September manufacturing PMI arrived at 52.9, higher than 52.5 in previous month (~) Japan July Industrial Production fell.1% MoM, same as previous month JPY/SGD 6-month Chart JPY/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average JPY/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 9 CHF Last week, SNB maintained benchmark interest rate unchanged in September. Last week, USDCHF once dropped to.954 levels. The upcoming release will be Switzerland's August retail sales. ` 24-Sep Weekly change:.17%.17% (+) Switzerland Q2 GDP rose 3.4% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.9% in previous quarter High (~) Switzerland August CPI rose 1.2% YoY, same as previous month Low (~) Switzerland August unemployment rate arrived at 2.6%, same as previous month Support1* (-) Switzerland August Foreign Currency Reserves arrived at CHF 7.9 billion, lower than CHF billion in Support2* previous month Resistance1* Resistance2* CHF/SGD 6-month Chart CHF/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average CHF/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI
6 SGD The Monetary Authority of Singapore announced in October last year that it would maintain monetary policy unchanged and noted that Singapore's economic growth next year should be robust, but may be slower than this year. Last week, Singapore non-oil domestic exports was higher than expected in August. Last week, USDSGD once dropped to 1.37 levels. The upcoming release will be Singapore's August industrial production figure. Tehnical Analysis vs USD 24-Sep 1.36 (-) Singapore Q2 GDP final value rose 3.9% YoY, lower than an increase of 4.5% in previous quarter's advance Weekly change: -.73% result High 1.38 (~) Singapore July CPI rose.6% YoY, same as previous month Low 1.36 (-) Singapore Q2 unemployment rate arrived at 2.1%, higher than 2% in previous quarter Support1* 1.35 Support2* (-) Singapore August Non Oil Domestic Exports rose 5% YoY, lower than an increase of 11% in previous Resistance1* month Resistance2* USD/SGD 6-month Chart USD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average USD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 9
7 Central Bank Rate Current Prior Date Current Prior Date FED Fund Sep-18 Canada (BOC) Oct-18 Europe (ECB).. 25-Oct-18 Japan (BOJ) Oct-18 UK (BOE) Nov-18 Malaysia Nov-18 Australia (RBA) Oct-18 Taiwan New Zealand (RBNZ) Sep-18 Indonesia Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated 24 Sep 218 before 9: am Terminology: Support level: Is the currency level where it tends to find support as it is going down i.e. market participants tend to see value at these levels and price is more likely to bounce up than go lower. Resistance level: Is the currency level where it tends to find resistance as it is going up i.e. market participants tend to consider this as a ceiling and prevent prices from going up further. *Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The scale is - 1 and typically overbought conditions are indicated by readings >7 and oversold conditions when <. Moving average: Is an indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a currency s price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or noise, that can confuse interpretation. This information is only for a reference and does not represent recommendation from HSBC for customer to buy or sell based on the information provided.customer should not rely on the views or information expressed in this document solely to make investment decisions. HSBC shall not be held liable for damages arising out of any person s reliance upon this information. Customer should make his/her buy and sell decision based on his/her own view. Also, past performance is not indicative of future performance. Disclaimer: This document has been prepared for information only. Information contained in this document is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however HSBC does not guarantee its completeness or accuracy. The information contained in this document is intended for Singapore residents only and should not be construed as an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment where such activities would be unlawful under the laws of such jurisdiction, in particular the United States of America and Canada. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment or securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. The specific investment objectives, personal situation and particular needs of any person have not been taken in consideration. You should therefore not rely on it as investment advice. Opinions and estimates expressed are subject to change without notice and HSBC expressly disclaims any and all liability for representations and warranties, express or implied, contained herein, or for omissions. All charts and graphs are from publicly available sources or proprietary data. The mention of any security should not be construed as representing a recommendation to buy or sell that security, nor does it represent a forecast on future performance of the security. This document is distributed by HSBC Bank (Singapore) Limited ( HBSP ) pursuant to Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations, to its customers for general reference only. HBSP accepts legal responsibility for the contents of this document, and may be contacted in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Please refer to HBSP s website at for its contact details. This document is prepared by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited ( HBAP ), 1 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. HBAP is incorporated in Hong Kong and is part of the HSBC Group.
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