fx strategy This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group fx 4 April 2016

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1 fx strategy This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group fx 4 April 2016 Commodity currency rally appears to be fading Despite the USD weakening significantly last week, it remains well within its post-q range. The EUR is near the top of its broad consolidation range ( ) and we do not see strong upside drivers. On the USD/JPY pair, a major risk-off move notwithstanding, we see limited downside potential. Our focus this week is to renew bearish views on commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD) which we believe have rallied much more than fundamentals would suggest. Asian currencies may have also rallied excessively; we remain bearish on SGD. Key data and events this week include the release of FOMC minutes, Euro area services PMI and retail sales, BoJ governor Kuroda s speech, UK manufacturing data, Australia policy statement and Singapore Q1 GDP. Pairs Outlook (2-4 wk) Summary comments Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2 EUR/USD Bearish Near the important top, we expect a reversal USD/JPY Bullish Little possibility of further downside, expect a rebound AUD/USD Bearish Should buckle under the recent weaker commodity price trend USD/SGD Bullish support maintained, weak SGD fundamentals remain GBP/USD rebounds against the backdrop of Brexit risks XAU/USD Sharp fall lower confirms a short term top NZD/USD Bearish Consolidation range remains intact despite last week s surge EUR/GBP Break-out above 0.80 bullish, but EUR overbought USD/CNH Remains directionless for now USD/CHF Bullish bias broken, next support USD/CAD Bullish Rebound from support and pull-back in oil prices AUD/NZD Continues to trade close to key resistance, remain cautious Darker shade indicates more important technical levels This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. This document is provided for general circulation and information purposes only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, needs or financial situation of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared as investment advice for such person(s). Person includes a corporation, co-operative society, trade union, sole proprietorship, partnership, limited liability partnership and any other business entity. Prospective investors should seek advice from a financial adviser on the suitability of an investment, taking into account these factors before making a commitment to invest in an investment. 1

2 Contents Commodity currency rally appears to be fading 1 12 month outlook week outlook 3 FX trade notes 3 Week in Review 4 EUR/USD 5 USD/JPY 6 AUD/USD 7 USD/SGD 8 GBP/USD 9 XAU/USD 10 NZD/USD 11 Interest Rate Differentials 15 FX Implied Volatility 16 Consensus forecasts 17 Disclosure Appendix 19 Steve Brice Clive McDonnell Manpreet Gill Adi Monappa, CFA Audrey Goh, CFA Rajat Bhattacharya Victor Teo, CFA Tariq Ali, CFA Abhilash Narayan Trang Nguyen Chief Investment Strategist Head, Equity Investment Strategy Head, FICC Investment Strategy Head, Asset Allocation & Portfolio construction Director, Asset Allocation & Portfolio construction Investment Strategist Investment Strategist Investment Strategist Investment Strategist Analyst, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 2

3 12 month outlook 2-4 week outlook Currency EUR JPY GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF CNY TWD KRW SGD MYR IDR INR THB PHP Bullish Bearish 12 month Pairs EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/SGD GBP/USD XAU/USD NZD/USD EUR/GBP USD/CNH USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/NZD FX trade notes Initiation date Pairs Position Entry price Outlook (2-4 wk) Bearish Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish Bullish Current price Target Stop 12/3/2016 NZD/USD Short This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 3

4 Week in Review Weekly performance of core pairs 25 March 2016 to 1 April 2016 EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/SGD GBP/USD XAU/USD NZD/USD Weekly performance of supplementary pairs 25 March 2016 to 1 April 2016 EUR/GBP USD/CNH USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/NZD Pairs EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/SGD GBP/USD XAU/USD NZD/USD Week in Review EUR/USD ended up (2.01). The EUR surged higher during the week, following dovish comments from Fed Chair Yellen, resulting in renewed USD weakness. In addition, EUR area core inflation was higher than consensus expectations. USD/JPY ended down (-1.23). The pair fell lower after Fed chair Yellen adopted a cautious tone regarding additional Fed rate hikes. The stronger US job numbers on Friday failed to revive interest in the USD. AUD/USD ended up (2.26). The pair rose sharply with the weaker USD and strong rally in Emerging Market currencies. This was despite the fact that commodity prices, including iron ore, fell during most of the week. Stronger China data on Friday was strongly supportive. USD/SGD ended down (-1.52). The move lower was in-line with a strong rally in Asian currencies amid a broadly weaker USD following dovish comments by Yellen and stronger China data. GBP/USD was up (0.67). The pair rose following the sell-off in the USD, though unlike its major peers, quickly lost ground following the strong US jobs report. A stronger than expected UK GDP growth also failed to support the pair. XAU/USD was up (0.46). Gold edged higher after comments by Yellen, but failed to maintain upside after the US jobs report. NZD/USD was up (3.26). NZD outperformed all major peers during the week, following the USD sell-off, stronger than expected China data and the significant rise in New Zealand building permits. This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 4

5 EUR/USD We remain bearish amid proximity to key resistance and few positive fundamental indicators. Fundamental Overview Market perception of limited ECB effectiveness of policy measures and a dovish Fed rate outlook have continued to support the EUR. We believe consequences of the recent ECB action are still negative for the EUR fundamentally, which may have been temporarily masked by the weaker USD. In our view, markets have turned excessively negative on the US rates outlook and any modification of this assumption could lead to EUR downside. Technical Analysis While chart patterns and technical indicators have firmed and suggest a bullish bias, we are wary of chasing the trend higher at these levels. The broad consolidation range of remains intact after a year. We believe it would take a strong break above 1.15 to indicate further upside. Hence, we prefer to sell at current levels. EUR/USD to face significant resistance at the 1.15 levels EUR/USD Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 EUR/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Bearish Key technical indicators* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action Buy Key Levels Level Importance Resistance Medium Resistance High Spot Support Medium Support Medium Key Signposts Euro area services PMI Euro area retail sales 5 April 5 April * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 5

6 USD/JPY We turn bullish on USD/JPY (from neutral earlier) amid limited probability of a renewed downtrend. Fundamental Overview The string of weaker Japan data may be increasing pressure on the BoJ to take yet more drastic and innovative steps to weaken the JPY. A weaker currency remains a bulwark of Prime Minister Abe s strategy to revive the Japanese economy. Hence, we do not expect authorities to be tolerant of significant JPY strength. Technical Analysis The pair s breach below 112 suggests renewed selling pressure. However, we do not expect the pair to breach recent lows (110.67) and, hence, expect the pair to remain in consolidation. Bullish Key technical indicators* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action USD/JPY at bottom of range, expect a rebound USD/JPY Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 USD/JPY 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Key Levels Level Importance Resistance Medium Resistance High Spot Support Medium Support Medium Key Signposts Kuroda speech FOMC minutes 7 Apr 7 Apr * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 6

7 AUD/USD We remain bearish on AUD/USD and expect the pair to fall before support is forthcoming. Fundamental Overview We do not believe there are very strong fundamental reasons for the AUD rally to continue. First, we do not rule out the possibility of a further RBA rate cut on Tuesday or strong messaging with regards to recent currency appreciation. Second, there have been no major improvements in key commodity supply-demand balances, suggesting the recent rally was likely sentiment-driven. Technical Analysis The pair does not seem poised to break above the near term resistance region at 0.770, even as the broader technical pattern suggests a more bullish bias. The region is likely to offer strong resistance, limiting upside. The pair may, however, find support around Limited upside given strong resistance AUD/USD Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 AUD/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Bearish Key technical indicators* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action Buy Buy Key Levels Level Importance Resistance High Resistance Medium Spot Support Medium Support Low Key Signposts RBA policy rate 5 Apr * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 7

8 USD/SGD We remain bullish on USD/SGD and see little reason for SGD gains to sustain. Fundamental Overview A dovish Fed has been the main support for a weaker USD and stronger Asian currencies. From here on, we see fewer reasons for either continued weakness in the USD or a continued rally in Asian currencies. We continue to believe MAS policy is keep the SGD NEER in the lower half of the policy band and, hence, believe the broad SGD is too strong at these levels. Technical Analysis With the pair unable to breach below the support region, we believe there is a limited case for further downside. The support is also the 50 retracement level of the 2014 rally (daily charts). Moreover, the RSI continues to hover close to oversold levels, suggesting potential for the pair to rebound higher. USD/SGD maintains above support USD/SGD Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 USD/SGD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Bullish Key technical indicators* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action Buy Key Levels Level Importance Resistance Medium Resistance Medium Spot Support High Support High Key Signposts Singapore 1Q GDP y/y 7 Mar * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 8

9 GBP/USD We remain neutral on GBP/USD amid Brexit risks and are biased to sell into rebounds. Fundamental Overview Issues relating to Brexit are likely to continue to dominate the GBP in the short term even as longer-term UK domestic fundamentals remain upbeat. Concerns mainly emanate from the large UK current account deficit and its funding in case of capital flight. Hence, as we saw last week following the terrorist attack in Brussels, markets are likely to excessively focus on anything that could sway opinion in favour of leaving the Euro area. Technical Analysis The sharp retreat from and break below the 50DMA suggests continued consolidation. Above we expect the pair to continue range-trading, while a break below would open up further downside towards the 2008 weekly close at GBP/USD remains in consolidation state; sell rebounds GBP/USD Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 GBP/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Key technical indicators* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action Buy Key Levels Level Importance Resistance Medium Resistance Medium Spot Support High Support Medium Key Signposts UK services PMI Mar 5 UK industrial and Mar 8 manufacturing production UK trade balance Mar 8 * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 9

10 XAU/USD We turn neutral on gold (from bearish earlier) amid confirmation of a top Fundamental Overview A weaker USD failed to support gold last week, suggesting the gold rally has begun to fade. Positive sentiment around Emerging Markets may have been dampening demand for the safehaven. We believe a significant worsening of global growth conditions or stress in financial markets is needed for gold to continue rallying. Neither of these look likely in the coming weeks. Technical Analysis Gold has likely formed a top, following the sharp fall. However, we remain cautious ahead of the major support region around 1,180-1,200. A break below this would negative the recent uptrend and open the possibility of further downside towards the 1,050 level. Sharp fall lower confirms top, however, 1,200 support to challenge downside XAU/USD 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,200 1,250 1,000 Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 XAU/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Key technical indicators and forecast* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action Buy Key Levels Level Importance Resistance High Resistance Medium Spot 1220 Support High Support Medium Key Signposts FOMC minutes 7 Apr * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 10

11 NZD/USD We remain bearish and expect the pair to trade lower within its consolidation range. Fundamental Overview A pullback in commodity prices, amid excessively positive short-term sentiment, as well as prospect of further RBNZ easing is likely to keep the NZD under pressure. Dairy prices also remain under pressure and have failed to follow the recent commodity bounce. Technical Analysis The strong rebound in the NZD/USD last week failed to breach the psychological level, falling back within the recent range. This suggests the pair is unlikely to test new highs for now. Short-term technical indicators have turned more bullish, though we expect limited upside as medium term indicators still remain directionless. NZD/USD falls back within recent range, expect consolidation to continue NZD/USD Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 NZD/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Bearish Key technical indicators and forecast* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action Buy Buy Key Levels Level Importance Resistance Low Resistance High Spot Support High Support Medium Key Signposts No major events * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 11

12 SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS We remain neutral on EUR/GBP View EURGBP Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Bullish break-out implies further upside. However, we see EUR as being overbought in the short term against major peers EUR/GBP 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA We turn neutral on USD/CNH (from bearish earlier) View USD/CNH Unable to sustain recent upturn, we expect the pair to consolidate Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 USD/CNH 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 12

13 SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS (cont d) We turn neutral on USD/CHF (from bullish) View USD/CHF Recent breach below support breaks bullish bias, next support at in focus, may limit downside 0.89 Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 USD/CHF 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA We remain bullish on USD/CAD View USD/CAD Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 USD/CAD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Bullish Rebound from a strong support regions suggests short-term bottom Increasing likelihood of a pullback in oil prices may also risk further upside in the pair This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 13

14 SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS (cont d) We remain neutral on AUD/NZD View AUD/NZD Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 AUD/NZD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA The pair remains close to the 2015 highs that have been challenged many times A breach above this region would open the room for significant further upside This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 14

15 Interest Rate Differentials EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 EUR-USD 2 year interest rate differential EUR/USD (RHS) EUR/USD Mar-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 USD-JPY 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS) USD/JPY USD/JPY Mar-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 AUD-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS) AUD/USD (RHS) AUD/USD GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD Mar-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 GBP-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS) GBP/USD (RHS) Mar-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 NZD-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS) NZD/USD (RHS) Mar-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 USD-CAD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS) USD/CAD (RHS) This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 15

16 FX Implied Volatility EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD Mar-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 EUR 1M implied vol Mar-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 JPY 1M implied vol Mar-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 AUD 1M implied vol GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 GBP 1M implied vol Mar-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 NZD 1M implied vol Mar-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 CAD 1M implied vol This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 16

17 Consensus forecasts Consensus Forecasts Spot Q Q Q Q EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/SGD GBP/USD USD/CAD USD/CHF This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 17

18 TECHNICAL INDICATORS EXPLANATORY APPENDIX RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI indicators can be used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. An RSI above 70 can indicate a currency pair is overbought while an RSI below 30 can indicate the pair is oversold. Stochastic Oscillator The Stochastic Oscillator compares where a security's price closed relative to its trading range over a given time period. The security or index is generally considered oversold when the Oscillator falls to 20, while a reading of 80 is considered overbought. MACD (The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) This indicator shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A bearish signal is provided when the main moving average line drops below the second moving average line, and vice versa. ADX (Average Directional Index) This indicator quantifies a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. An index rising above zero provides a bullish signal while an index falling below zero provides a bearish signal. Momentum Indicator The momentum of a security is the ratio of today's price compared to the price at a given point in the past. If the security's price is higher today, the momentum indicator will be considered strong. If the security's price is lower today, the momentum Indicator will be weak. This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 18

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