Daily FX Focus 29/12/2017

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1 Important Risk Warning Daily FX Focus 29/12/217 The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation and investment experience. Investment involves risk. Loss may be incurred as well as profits made as a result of buying and selling investment products. Currency conversion risk - the value of your foreign currency and MYR deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and MYR deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and MYR, you may suffer loss in principal. Currency Current Trend* Support / Resistance Market commentary AUD.7594 /.793 The USD fell for the 3rd consecutive day and dropped below 93 level. AUDUSD once touched.789 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's November Trade Balance. EUR / EURUSD rebounded to more than 1 month high as USD fell. EURUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Eurozone December Markit Manufacturing PMI final value. GBP NZD RMB CAD / UK's November finance loans for housing dropped, as compared with last month. However as USD fell. GBPUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be UK's December Markit Manufacturing PMI /.7181 NZDUSD rose to a more than 2 months high as USD fell. NZDUSD once touched.798 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's December House Sales / CNH rose to more than 3 and half month high as USD fell. USDCNH once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be China's December Manufacturing PMI / Oil prices hovering at around USD, coupled with the USD fell, USDCAD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's December Markit Manufacturing PMI. Japan's industrial production and retail figures were higher than expected in November, USDJPY once JPY / dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's December Manufacturing PMI final value. SGD / USDSGD fell for the 3rd consecutive day. USDSGD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Singapore's 4Q GDP initial value. MYR / As we dwell onto the last trading day of the year and in the absence of fresh leads in the thin market, MYR continues its gain by opening firmer at mid 4.65 levels this morning and we expect the USDMYR to end the year trading around levels. Throughout 217, the USDMYR pair started the year trading at mid 4.49 level, and if were to end around mid 4.6 level, this will record a 1% appreciation for MYR in 217. * Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 2-days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 5-day moving average, can be used if needed. Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the base currency Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the base currency

2 29/12/217 AUD RBA kept its interest rates unchanged at 1.5% in the December meeting, in line with expectations. The USD fell for the 3rd consecutive day and dropped below 93 level. AUDUSD once touched.789 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's November Trade Balance. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec Daily change: -.2% -.2% High Low Support* Resistance* (+) Australia Q3 GDP rose 2.8% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.9% in previous quarter (+) Australia Q3 CPI rose.6% YoY, higher than an increase of.2% in previous quarter (~) Australia November unemployment rate arrived at 5.4%, same as pervious month (-) Australia November Commodity Price Index arrived at -3.3%, lower than 1.9% in previous month 3.52 AUD/MYR 6-month Chart AUD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average AUD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3 EUR ECB kept its interest rate unchanged in December as expected, and said the interest rate will maintain its current level for a considerable period of time. EURUSD rebounded to more than 1 month high as USD fell. EURUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Eurozone December Markit Manufacturing PMI final value. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec Daily change:.7%.7% (+) Germany Q3 GDP rose.8% QoQ, higher than an increase of.6% in previous quarter High (+) Eurozone November CPI rose 1.5% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.4% in previous month Low (+) Germany December manufacturing PMI arrived at 63.3, higher than 62.5 in previous month Support* (-) Germany December Business Climate arrived at 117.2, lower than in previous month Resistance* EUR/MYR 6-month Chart EUR/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 4. Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 EUR/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17

3 29/12/217 GBP BoE kept its interest rate unchanged in December as expected. UK's November finance loans for housing dropped, as compared with last month. However as USD fell. GBPUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be UK's December Markit Manufacturing PMI. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec Daily change: -.4% -.4% High Low Support* Resistance* (-) UK Q3 GDP final value rose 1.7% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.9% in previous quarter's preliminary value (+) UK November CPI rose.3% YoY, higher than an increase of.1% in previous month (~) UK ILO October's 3Mths unemployment rate was at 4.3%, same as pervious month (~) UK November Nationwide House Prices All Houses rose 2.5% YoY, same as pervious month GBP/MYR 6-month Chart GBP/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average GBP/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3 NZD RBNZ kept interest rates unchanged in November, but raised inflation forecasts. NZDUSD rose to a more than 2 months high as USD fell. NZDUSD once touched.798 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's December House Sales. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec (-) New Zealand Q3 GDP rose 2.7% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.8% in previous quarter Daily change:.%.% (+) New Zealand Q3 CPI rose 1.9% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.7% in previous quarter High (+) New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate arrived at 4.6%, lower than 4.8% in previous quarter Low (-) New Zealand November Commodity Price Index arrived at -.9%, dropped more than -.3% in previous Support* month Resistance* NZD/MYR 6-month Chart NZD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average NZD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3

4 29/12/217 RMB PBOC official said the next step in exchange rate reform will be less government intervention in the exchange market and to widen the CNY trading band. CNH rose to more than 3 and half month high as USD fell. USDCNH once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be China's December Manufacturing PMI. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec Daily change: -.5% -.5% High Low Support* Resistance* (-) China Q3 GDP rose 6.8% YoY, lower than an increase of 6.9% in previous quarter (-) China November CPI rose 1.7% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.9% in previous month (-) China November Caixin manufacturing PMI arrived at 5.8, lower than 51 in previous month (-) China November industrial production rose 6.1% YoY, lower than an increase of 6.2% in previous month RMB/MYR 6-month Chart CNH/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.59 9 RMB/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 3 CAD Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 1% in the December meeting as expected, but emphasized it would continue to cautiously adjust its monetary policy. Oil prices hovering at around USD, coupled with the USD fell, USDCAD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's December Markit Manufacturing PMI. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec (+) Canada October GDP rose 3.4% YoY, higher than an increase of 3.3% in previous month Daily change:.29%.29% (+) Canada November CPI rose 2.1% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.4% in previous month High (+) Canada November unemployment rate arrived at 5.9%, lower than 6.3% in previous month Low (+) Canada November Manufacturing PMI arrived at 54.4, higher than 54.3 in previous month Support* Resistance* CAD/MYR 6-month Chart CAD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average CAD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3

5 29/12/217 JPY Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy in December unchanged, in line with market expectations. Japan's industrial production and retail figures were higher than expected in November, USDJPY once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's December Manufacturing PMI final value. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec Daily change:.%.% High Low Support* Resistance* (+) Japan Q3 GDP rose 2.1% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.6% in previous quarter (+) Japan November CPI nationwide ex fresh food rose.6% YoY, higher than an increase of.2% in previous month (+) Japan December manufacturing PMI arrived at 54.2, higher than 53.6 in previous month (~) Japan November Industrial Production rose.6% MoM, same as pervious month 28. JPY/MYR 6-month Chart JPY/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average JPY/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3 SGD The Monetary Authority of Singapore announced in October that it would maintain monetary policy unchanged and noted that Singapore's economic growth next year should be robust, but may be slower than this year. USDSGD fell for the 3rd consecutive day. USDSGD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Singapore's 4Q GDP initial value. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 29-Dec (+) Singapore Q3 GDP final value rose 5.2% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.9% in previous quarter's Daily change: -.22% -.22% advance result High (+) Singapore November CPI rose.6% YoY, higher than an increase of.4% in previous month Low (~) Singapore Q3 unemployment rate arrived at 2.2%, same as pervious quarter Support* (-) Singapore November Non Oil Domestic Exports rose 9.1% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.5% in Resistance* previous month SGD/MYR 6-month Chart SGD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 2.92 SGD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 3

6 29/12/217 MYR As we dwell onto the last trading day of the year and in the absence of fresh leads in the thin market, MYR continues its gain by opening firmer at mid 4.65 levels this morning and we expect the USDMYR to end the year trading around levels. Throughout 217, the USDMYR pair started the year trading at mid 4.49 level, and if were to end around mid 4.6 level, this will record a 1% appreciation for MYR in 217. Tehnical Analysis 29-Dec 4.65 Daily change: -.39% High 4.88 Low 4.5 Support* (+) US Chicago Purchasing Manager (Dec) 67.6, expected 62., prior 63.9 (+) US Wholesale Inventories MoM (Nov P).7%, expected.3%, prior -.5% (revised -.4%) (~) US Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 23) 245k, expected 24k, prior 245k (-) US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Dec) 122.1, expected 128., prior (revised 128.6) (+) MY Foreign Reserves (Dec 15) $12.2b, prior $11.9b Resistance* USD/MYR 6-month Chart USD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average USD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI \ 3

7 29/12/217 Important Economic Data Release Source: Bloomberg as of December 29, 217 Analysts Consensus Previous Actual United States 26-Dec-17 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Jan 21% 2% 2% 27-Dec-17 Consumer Confidence* Dec Dec-17 Pending Home Sales MoM Nov -.48% 3.5%.2% 28-Dec-17 Chicago Purchasing Manager Dec Dec-17 Initial Jobless Claims* Weekly 24K 245K 245K 28-Dec-17 Continuing Claims Weekly 19K 1932K 1943K 28-Dec-17 Wholesale Inventories Nov.3% -.5%.7% Regional 28-Dec-17 Hong Kong Export YoY % Nov 6.7% 7.8% 28-Dec-17 Hong Kong Import YoY % Nov 7.9% 8.% 29-Dec-17 Australia Private Sector Credit MoM% Nov.4%.4% - 29-Dec-17 Australia Private Sector Credit YoY% Nov 5.2% 5.3% - 29-Dec-17 Hong Kong Gov't Monthly Budget Nov 22.22B - G7 Countries 27-Dec-17 Germany Retail Sales (MoM) Nov 1% -1% -1% 27-Dec-17 Japan Housing Starts (YoY) Nov -2.5% -4.8% -.41% 28-Dec-17 Japan Industrial Production (MoM)* Nov.5%.5%.% 28-Dec-17 Japan Retail Trade YoY Nov 1% -.2% 2.2% 28-Dec-17 Japan Retail Trade MoM SA Nov.7% -.1% 1.9% 29-Dec-17 Germany Consumr Price Index (MoM) Dec.5%.3% - 29-Dec-17 Germany Consumr Price Index (YoY) Dec 1.5% 1.8% - 29-Dec-17 Germany CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) Dec 1.4% 1.8% - 29-Dec-17 Germany CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) Dec.%.3% - 29-Dec-17 Italy PPI (YoY) Nov.4% -

8 29/12/217 Currency Market Movements Table Night Desk 2 Weeks 1 Month 3 Months Current High Low High Low High Low High Low AUD/MYR EUR/MYR GBP/MYR MYR/JPY NZD/MYR SGD/MYR USD/MYR AUD/USD EUR/USD GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/JPY AUD/GBP AUD/NZD AUD/SGD EUR/AUD EUR/NZD EUR/GBP GBP/SGD GBP/NZD AUD/HKD GBP/HKD USD/CAD CAD/MYR GBP/AUD USD/SGD EUR/SGD XAU/MYR XAU/USD XAU/GBP XAU/AUD XAU/EUR AUD/CAD AUD/JPY CAD/JPY NZD/JPY SGD/JPY AUD/CNY GBP/CNY NZD/CNY MYR/CNY Updated as of 29 December 217 9:25:18 AM * Night Desk Session from 5pm 5am Hong Kong Time. Source: Bloomberg Key Currency Performance against MYR Current level vs MYR 1-week Performance 3-month Performance 6-month Performance NZD % -5.37% -8.5% CAD % -4.4% -2.8% GBP % -2.74% -1.69% SGD 3.4.2% -2.22% -2.19% AUD % -4.31% -3.71% CNY.62.4% -2.2% -1.5% THB % -1.83% -1.63% CHF % -4.33% -6.84% EUR % -2.23% -.57% JPY 3.5.4% -4.5% -4.97% USD % -3.95% -5.39% *source : REUTERS closing bid price, as at 28-Dec-217

9 29/12/217 Central Bank Rate Current Prior Date Current Prior Date FED Fund Feb-18 Canada (BOC) Jan-18 Europe (ECB).. 25-Jan-18 Japan (BOJ) Jan-18 UK (BOE) Feb-18 Malaysia Jan-18 Australia (RBA) Feb-18 Taiwan New Zealand (RBNZ) Feb-18 Indonesia Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated 29/12/217 before 1.3 am The information in this document has been obtained from reports (relevant reports) issued or compiled by various entities within the HSBC Group (the HSBC Group ) Terminology: Support level: Is the currency level where it tends to find support as it is going down i.e. market participants tend to see value at these levels and price is more likely to bounce up than go lower. Resistance level: Is the currency level where it tends to find resistance as it is going up i.e. market participants tend to consider this as a ceiling and prevent prices from going up further. *Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The scale is - 1 and typically overbought conditions are indicated by readings >7 and oversold conditions when <3. Moving average: Is an indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a currency s price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or noise, that can confuse interpretation. Disclaimer This document is issued by HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad ( V) (HSBC). The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but which we have not independently verified. HSBC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any nature nor is any responsibility of any kind accepted with respect to the completeness or accuracy of any information, projection, representation or warranty (expressed or implied) in, or omission from, this document. No liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of this document. Any examples given are for the purposes of illustration only. The opinions in this document constitute our present judgment, which is subject to change without notice. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for, or advice that you should enter into, the purchase or sale of any security, commodity or other investment product or investment agreement, or any other contract, agreement or structure whatsoever and is intended for institutional customers and is not intended for the use of private customers. The document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. Unless governing law permits otherwise, you must contact a HSBC Group member in your home jurisdiction if you wish to use HSBC Group services in effecting a transaction in any investment mentioned in this document. This document, which is not for public circulation, must not be copied, transferred or the content disclosed, to any third party and is not intended for use by any person other than the intended recipient or the intended recipient's professional advisers for the purposes of advising the intended recipient hereon. Copyright. HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad ( V) 215. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad.

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