Daily FX Focus 3/10/2018

Transcription

1 Important Risk Warning Daily FX Focus The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation and investment experience. Investment involves risk. Loss may be incurred as well as profits made as a result of buying and selling investment products. Currency conversion risk - the value of your foreign currency and MYR deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and MYR deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and MYR, you may suffer loss in principal. Currency Current Trend* Support / Resistance Market commentary AUD EUR.7112 / / RBA kept its interest rates unchanged at 1.5% in the October meeting. as expected, however commodity price index growth slowdown dragged AUD performance. AUDUSD once dropped to.716 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's August trade balance. Market concerned Italy monetary policy arrangement, EUR dropped to almost 6 weeks low. EURUSD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Eurozone September CPI final value. GBP / UK Markit construction PMI was lower than expected in September. GBPUSD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be UK's August industrial production figure. NZD RMB CAD JPY.6519 /.6681 New Zealand house prices growth slowdown in September. NZDUSD once dropped to.6573 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's September house sales / USDCNH traded within the range of The upcoming release will be China's September money supply M2 YoY / 1.39 USDCAD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be Canada's September unemployment rate / USDJPY dropped from almost 1-year high. USDJPY once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's August current account balance. SGD / Singapore PMI dropped in September. USDSGD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Singapore's 3Q GDP initial value. MYR / This morning USDMYR opened unchanged and is hovering around 4.14 pivot as Italian concerns continues to weigh on the EUR and high oil prices keep MYR sellers at bay. The pair is likely to trade in a similar stable manner today between the range of 4.13 to 4.15 levels ahead of a light data schedule with local Trade Balance data for August to be published this Friday. * Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 2-days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 5-day moving average, can be used if needed. Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the base currency Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the base currency

2 AUD RBA kept its interest rates unchanged at 1.5% in the October meeting. as expected, however commodity price index growth slowdown dragged AUD performance. AUDUSD once dropped to.716 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's August trade balance. vs MYR 3-Oct Daily change: -.45% -.45% (+) Australia Q2 GDP rose 3.4% YoY, higher than an increase of 3.2% in previous quarter High (~) Australia Q2 CPI rose.4% YoY, same as previous quarter Low (~) Australia August unemployment rate arrived at 5.3%, same as previous month Support* (-) Australia September Commodity Price Index arrived at 4.8%, lower than 6.6% in previous month Resistance* AUD/MYR 6-month Chart AUD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average AUD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI EUR ECB September meeting kept interest rates unchanged and said QE might end by this year. Market concerned Italy monetary policy arrangement, EUR dropped to almost 6 weeks low. EURUSD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Eurozone September CPI final value. vs MYR 3-Oct (+) Germany Q2 GDP rose.5% QoQ, higher than an increase of.4% in previous quarter Daily change: -.21% -.21% (+) Eurozone September CPI rose 2.1% YoY, higher than an increase of 2% in previous month High (-) Germany September manufacturing PMI arrived at 53.7, lower than 55.9 in previous month Low Support* (-) Germany September Business Climate arrived at 13.7, lower than 13.9 in previous month Resistance* EUR/MYR 6-month Chart EUR/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 4.45 EUR/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 6 3

3 GBP BoE September meeting kept interest rates unchanged and warned that Brexit uncertainty is becoming a more significant problem for UK economy. UK Markit construction PMI was lower than expected in September. GBPUSD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be UK's August industrial production figure. vs MYR 3-Oct Daily change: -.44% -.44% (+) UK Q2 GDP final value rose 1.2% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.1% in previous quarter's preliminary value High (+) UK August CPI rose.7% YoY, higher than kept flat in previous month Low (~) UK ILO July's 3Mths unemployment rate was at 4%, same as previous month Support* (~) UK September Nationwide House Prices All Houses rose 2% YoY, same as previous month Resistance* GBP/MYR 6-month Chart GBP/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average GBP/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI NZD RBNZ maintained September offical cash rate unchanged as expected. New Zealand house prices growth slowdown in September. NZDUSD once dropped to.6573 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's September house sales. vs MYR 3-Oct (+) New Zealand Q2 GDP rose 2.8% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.6% in previous quarter Daily change: -.25% -.25% (+) New Zealand Q2 CPI rose 1.5% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.1% in previous quarter High (-) New Zealand Q2 unemployment rate arrived at 4.5%, higher than 4.4% in previous quarter Low (-) New Zealand September Commodity Price Index arrived at -1.8%, dropped more than -1.1% in previous Support* month Resistance* NZD/MYR 6-month Chart NZD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average NZD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 6 3

4 RMB PBOC official said the next step in exchange rate reform will be less government intervention in the exchange market and to widen the CNY trading band. USDCNH traded within the range of The upcoming release will be China's September money supply M2 YoY. vs MYR 3-Oct Daily change:.8%.8% (-) China Q2 GDP rose 6.7% YoY, lower than an increase of 6.8% in previous quarter High (+) China August CPI rose 2.3% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.1% in previous month Low (-) China September Caixin manufacturing PMI arrived at 5, lower than 5.6 in previous month Support* (+) China August industrial production rose 6.1% YoY, higher than an increase of 6% in previous month Resistance* RMB/MYR 6-month Chart CNH/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average RMB/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3 Bank of Canada maintained benchmark interest rate at 1.5% in September. USDCAD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be Canada's September unemployment rate. CAD vs MYR (~) Canada July GDP rose 2.4% YoY, same as previous month 3-Oct (-) Canada August CPI rose 2.8% YoY, lower than an increase of 3% in previous month Daily change: -.1% -.1% (-) Canada August unemployment rate arrived at 6%, higher than 5.8% in previous month High (-) Canada September Manufacturing PMI arrived at 54.8, lower than 56.8 in previous month Low Support* Resistance* CAD/MYR 6-month Chart CAD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average CAD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 6 3

5 JPY BOJ kept interest rate unchanged in July, but lowered the inflation forecast for 218, 219 and 22. USDJPY dropped from almost 1-year high. USDJPY once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's August current account balance. vs MYR 3-Oct Daily change: -.24% -.24% (+) Japan Q2 GDP rose 1.3% YoY, higher than an increase of 1% in previous quarter High (+) Japan August CPI nationwide ex fresh food rose 1.3% YoY, higher than an increase of.9% in previous month Low (~) Japan September manufacturing PMI arrived at 52.5, same as previous month Support* (~) Japan August Industrial Production rose.7% MoM, same as previous month Resistance* JPY/MYR 6-month Chart JPY/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average JPY/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI SGD The Monetary Authority of Singapore announced in October last year that it would maintain monetary policy unchanged and noted that Singapore's economic growth next year should be robust, but may be slower than this year. Singapore PMI dropped in September. USDSGD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Singapore's 3Q GDP initial value. vs MYR (-) Singapore Q2 GDP final value rose 3.9% YoY, lower than an increase of 4.5% in previous quarter's advance 3-Oct result Daily change: -.5% -.5% (+) Singapore August CPI rose.7% YoY, higher than an increase of.6% in previous month High (-) Singapore Q2 unemployment rate arrived at 2.1%, higher than 2% in previous quarter Low (-) Singapore August Non Oil Domestic Exports rose 5% YoY, lower than an increase of 11% in previous month Support* Resistance* SGD/MYR 6-month Chart SGD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 2.84 SGD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI 9 6 3

6 MYR This morning USDMYR opened unchanged and is hovering around 4.14 pivot as Italian concerns continues to weigh on the EUR and high oil prices keep MYR sellers at bay. The pair is likely to trade in a similar stable manner today between the range of 4.13 to 4.15 levels ahead of a light data schedule with local Trade Balance data for August to be published this Friday. 3-Oct 4.14 (-) US Monthly Budget Statement (Aug) b, expected -211b, prior -17.7b (-) US Retail Sales Advance MoM (Aug).1%, expected.4%, prior.5% Daily change:.5% (+) US Industrial Production MoM (Aug).4%, expected.3%, prior.1% High (+) US U of Michigan Sentiment (Sep P) 1.8, expected 96.6, prior 96.2 Low Support* Resistance* USD/MYR 6-month Chart USD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average USD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI \ 3

7 Important Economic Data Release Source: Bloomberg as of October 3, 218 Analysts Consensus Previous Actual United States 1-Oct-18 Construction Spending MoM Sep.4%.1%.1% 1-Oct-18 ISM Manufacturing* Oct Oct-18 ISM Prices Paid Oct Oct-18 ADP Employment Change Sep 184K 162.8K - 3-Oct-18 MBA Mortgage Applications* Weekly 2.9% - 3-Oct-18 ISM Non-Manf. Composite Sep Oct-18 Durable Goods Orders* Sep 4.5% 4.5% - 4-Oct-18 Durables Ex Transportation Sep.1% - 4-Oct-18 Initial Jobless Claims* Weekly 215K 214K - 4-Oct-18 Continuing Claims Weekly 1665K 1661K - 4-Oct-18 Factory Orders* Aug 2.1% -.8% - 5-Oct-18 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls* Sep 184K 21K - 5-Oct-18 Change in Manufact. Payrolls Sep 15K -3K - 5-Oct-18 Trade Balance* Aug -53.5B -5.82B - 5-Oct-18 Unemployment Rate* Sep 3.8% 3.9% - 6-Oct-18 Consumer Credit Aug 15B 16.64B - Regional 2-Oct-18 Australia RBA Cash Target* 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2-Oct-18 Hong Kong Retail Sales - Value (YoY) Aug 8% 7.8% 9.5% 3-Oct-18 Australia Building Approvals (MoM)* Aug 1% -5.2% - 3-Oct-18 Australia Building Approvals (YoY) Aug -2.5% -5.6% - 3-Oct-18 Australia AiG Performance of Service Index Sep Oct-18 Australia Trade Balance* Aug 145M 1551M - G7 Countries 2-Oct-18 UK Nat'wide House Price sa (MoM)* Sep.2% -.5%.3% 2-Oct-18 UK Nat'wide House Price nsa (YoY)* Sep 1.9% 2% 2% 3-Oct-18 France PMI Services Oct Oct-18 Germany PMI Services Oct Oct-18 UK PMI Services Sep Oct-18 Canada Ivey Purchasing Manager Index Sep Oct-18 Canada Net Change in Employment Sep 27.5K -51.6K - 5-Oct-18 Germany Factory Orders MoM (sa)* Aug.8% -.9% - 5-Oct-18 Germany Factory Orders MoM (nsa) Aug -3% -.9% - 5-Oct-18 Italy Retails Sales (YoY) Aug Oct-18 Japan Offficial Reserve Assets Sep B - 5-Oct-18 UK Halifax House Prices sa (MoM)* Sep.2%.1% - 5-Oct-18 UK Halifax House Prices 3M/Year Sep 3.4% 3.7% -

8 Currency Market Movements Table

9 Central Bank Rate Current Prior Date Current Prior Date FED Fund Nov-18 Canada (BOC) Oct-18 Europe (ECB).. 25-Oct-18 Japan (BOJ) Oct-18 UK (BOE) Nov-18 Malaysia Nov-18 Australia (RBA) Nov-18 Taiwan New Zealand (RBNZ) Nov-18 Indonesia Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated before 1.3 am The information in this document has been obtained from reports (relevant reports) issued or compiled by various entities within the HSBC Group (the HSBC Group ) Terminology: Support level: Is the currency level where it tends to find support as it is going down i.e. market participants tend to see value at these levels and price is more likely to bounce up than go lower. Resistance level: Is the currency level where it tends to find resistance as it is going up i.e. market participants tend to consider this as a ceiling and prevent prices from going up further. *Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The scale is - 1 and typically overbought conditions are indicated by readings >7 and oversold conditions when <3. Moving average: Is an indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a currency s price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or noise, that can confuse interpretation. Disclaimer This document is issued by HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad ( V) (HSBC). The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but which we have not independently verified. HSBC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any nature nor is any responsibility of any kind accepted with respect to the completeness or accuracy of any information, projection, representation or warranty (expressed or implied) in, or omission from, this document. No liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of this document. Any examples given are for the purposes of illustration only. The opinions in this document constitute our present judgment, which is subject to change without notice. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for, or advice that you should enter into, the purchase or sale of any security, commodity or other investment product or investment agreement, or any other contract, agreement or structure whatsoever and is intended for institutional customers and is not intended for the use of private customers. The document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. Unless governing law permits otherwise, you must contact a HSBC Group member in your home jurisdiction if you wish to use HSBC Group services in effecting a transaction in any investment mentioned in this document. This document, which is not for public circulation, must not be copied, transferred or the content disclosed, to any third party and is not intended for use by any person other than the intended recipient or the intended recipient's professional advisers for the purposes of advising the intended recipient hereon. Copyright. HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad ( V) 215. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad.