Economic Daily IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA RELEASE TODAY. 5 September Market Update (Fundamentals):

Transcription

1 Brought to you by Phillip Futures Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) 5 September 2018 IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA RELEASE TODAY Economic data is an important factor that will have an impact on market direction. There are a number of economic figures releases daily. Below are some important data to watch out for, which would have impact to today s market. No Time Event Actual Forecast Previous :30 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% :30 Australia GDP (YoY) (Q2) 3.4% 2.8% 3.1% 2 09:45 China Caixin Services PMI (Aug) :30 U.K. Services PMI (Aug) :30 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) % 0.3% Market Update (Fundamentals): 1) US stock index futures: Trade tensions continue to dominate investors sentiments Prices as at 10.30am: Mini Dow Futures: -0.08% Mini S&P 500 Futures: -0.07% Source: Reuters/ Phillip Futures US stock index futures remained weak. Trade concerns involving the US and various countries continue to be the focal point for markets. Increasing trade tensions with Canada and China will be the focus for the week. Markets remain fearful to whether the US would carry on with NAFTA without Canada, and if President Trump pushes ahead with the third wave of tariffs on China after 7th September. Therefore, we foresee more downside risk for US stock index futures this week, as its development will continue to weigh on market confidence. The trend for the mini S&P 500 futures is bearish on the hourly chart. Prices are below the 20, 40 and 100 EMA. A bearish crossover formed with the 40 EMA crossing the 100 EMA. The immediate resistance at , and immediate support at ) Asian stock index futures: Broadly in the red, but Singapore indices in the green Prices as at 10.30am: FTSE China A50 Futures: -0.41% MSCI Singapore Free Index (SiMSCI) Futures: 0.41% FTSE China A50 Futures sink after the Caixin Service PMI shows that services growth is slowing further. This reaffirmed investors fear that China s economy is facing imminent pressure from US President Trump s tariffs. Trade will remain as the focal point for Chinese markets. With US President Trump expected to push through the tariffs on US$200 billion worth of China exports this week, investors have been more cautious. Therefore, we expect market turmoil to persist, and this may give continued selling pressure on the China A50 index. With current prices for the FTSE China A50 Futures trending below the , 100 and 200 EMA on the hourly chart, the trend is currently bearish. Our view is that the immediate resistance is at , and immediate support is at SiMSCI Futures rose, deviating from other Asian indices. This may be due to Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean and his Malaysian counterpart Wan Azizah Wan Ismail reaffirming the warm and mutually beneficial relations between Singapore and Malaysia. They also agreed to work closely across a wide range of areas. Hence, should Singapore and Malaysia s relations continue to improve, it would generate more market confidence towards the SiMSCi. Written By: Samuel Siew Rep No.: SWE Phone: (65) samuelsiewwe@phillip.com.sg pfpl_commentaries@phillip.com.sg Please carefully read the important disclosures at the end of this publication.

2 The trend seems to be turning bullish, with prices trending above the 20 EMA on the hourly chart. The immediate resistance will be at and immediate support at ) Australian Dollar: Boosted by unexpected GDP results GDP results saw the Australian economy reporting its strongest year on year growth since The strong GDP results dispelled investors economic negativity surrounding Australia. This caused the AUD to spike 30 pips in 15 minutes. The data shows that government spending helped in uplifting softer business investment, and improving exports. However, we are of the view that this increase may be temporary. The RBA still plays an anchor role in driving the AUD s strength. Yesterday, the RBA kept interest rates unchanged at 1.50%, as expected, leaving interest rates at current low levels for 23 consecutive meetings. Policy normalisation is unlikely due to the continued to disinflationary backdrop despite stronger growth for some time. The cautious RBA would likely wait to see a material increase in inflation before signalling a move in interest rates. Therefore, future inflation and wage growth results will be critical. The AUD/USD pair has started to turn bullish based on the hourly chart. Prices are above the 20 and 40 EMA, but below the 100 and 200 EMA. With the long-term trend still bearish, investors would be paying close watch to see if prices are able to break above the immediate resistance of , the 100 EMA. If prices break over that level, it indicates that the trend has turned bullish. Meanwhile, its immediate support is at ) Euro Currency: Trade tensions with US dampening investors confidence Retail sales, which is an early indicator to judge a country s economic strength is forecasted to shrink in July. This is due to the US and EU s tensed relations on trade that month, prior to the meeting between US President Trump and President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker. Hence, should retail sales numbers be negative, it could cause the EUR to weaken further. The EUR/USD pair is in a bearish trend based on the hourly chart. Prices are below the 40, 100 and 200 EMA. The immediate resistance is at , while its immediate support is at ) Pound Sterling: Brexit pessimism continues to weigh on market sentiments Yesterday, construction growth slowed to its weakest in three months, providing further evidence that the nation s economy is losing momentum. The continued fear of a no-deal Brexit has weighing on market sentiment towards UK investment and the GBP. Hence, with the pessimism on Brexit increasing as the deadline closes in, we expect UK's economy to slow further. This will in turn cause more downside pressure for the GBP. Current trend for the GBP/USD pair is bearish based on the hourly chart. Prices are currently below the 40, 100 and 200 EMA. At present, its immediate resistance is at , and immediate support is at ) US Dollar: Supported by global trade tensions Global trade tensions involving the US and other nations such as Canada, China and the EU continue to support safe haven currencies such as the USD. Meanwhile, last night US manufacturing PMI numbers recorded its highest since 2004 on booming orders. This is a stark difference as compared to China, which suffered after the US-China trade tariffs were implemented. Hence, this shows the resilience of the US economy despite the ongoing trade tensions. In addition, the rise in the employment gauge also suggests manufacturers may record another month of strong payroll gains. Therefore, we postulate more buying strength for the USD, as investors look towards positive non-farm payroll results due on Friday. Current prices for the USD/SGD pair are above the 20, 40, 100 and 200 EMA on the hourly chart. This shows that the trend is still bullish. Its immediate resistance is at , and its immediate support is at PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 2

3 Technical Chart pick of the day: USD/JPY Bullish On a technical perspective, the trend is currently bullish with prices trading above the 20, 40, 100 and 200 EMA. The uptrend line is still intact. This indicates that buying strength is present. Prices are testing the month high at Should it break above that level, more buying strength entails. Based on the pivot point analysis, prices are currently above the pivot level. This signifies bullishness. Resistance: R1: , R2: , R3: Support: S1: , S2: , S3: USD/JPY Hourly Chart PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 3

4 Economic Calendar Date Time Economic Release Period Survey Actual Surprise Previous Unit United States 4 Sep 21:45 Markit Mfg PMI Final Aug 54.5 Index 4 Sep 22:00 Construction Spending MM Jul 0.6% -1.1% Percent 4 Sep 22:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI Aug Index 4 Sep 22:00 ISM Mfg Prices Paid Aug Index 5 Sep 03:30 Total Vehicle Sales Aug 16.80M 16.77M Number 5 Sep 20:30 International Trade $ Jul -46.7B -46.3B USD 6 Sep 20:15 ADP National Employment Aug 187k 219k Person 6 Sep 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims 27Aug, w/e 213k Person 6 Sep 20:30 Continued Jobless Claims 20Aug, w/e 1.708M Person 6 Sep 20:30 Labor Costs Revised Q2-0.8% -0.9% Percent 6 Sep 20:30 Productivity Revised Q2 2.9% 2.9% Percent 6 Sep 22:00 Factory Orders MM Jul -0.5% 0.7% Percent 6 Sep 22:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI Aug Index 7 Sep 20:30 Non-Farm Payrolls Aug 187k 157k Person 7 Sep 20:30 Private Payrolls Aug 184k 170k Person 7 Sep 20:30 Unemployment Rate Aug 3.9% 3.9% Percent 7 Sep 20:30 Average Earnings MM Aug 0.3% 0.3% Percent 7 Sep 20:30 Average Earnings YY Aug 2.8% 2.7% Percent 7 Sep 20:30 Average Workweek Hrs Aug Hour China 3 Sep 09:45 Caixin Mfg PMI Final Aug Index 8 Sep Exports YY Aug 10.0% 12.2% Percent 8 Sep Imports YY Aug 18.7% 27.3% Percent 8 Sep Trade Balance USD Aug 33.00B 28.05B USD PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 4

5 Date Time Economic Release Period Survey Actual Surprise Previous Unit Singapore United Kingdom 3 Sep 16:30 Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Aug Index 4 Sep 16:30 Markit/CIPS Cons PMI Aug Index 5 Sep 16:30 Markit/CIPS Serv PMI Aug Index 7 Sep 15:30 Halifax House Prices MM Aug 1.4% Percent Eurozone 3 Sep 16:00 Markit Mfg Final PMI Aug Index 4 Sep 17:00 Producer Prices MM Jul 0.3% 0.4% Percent 4 Sep 17:00 Producer Prices YY Jul 3.9% 3.6% Percent 5 Sep 16:00 Markit Serv Final PMI Aug Index 5 Sep 16:00 Markit Comp Final PMI Aug Index 5 Sep 17:00 Retail Sales MM Jul -0.2% 0.3% Percent 5 Sep 17:00 Retail Sales YY Jul 1.3% 1.2% Percent 7 Sep 17:00 GDP Revised QQ Q2 0.4% 0.4% Percent 7 Sep 17:00 GDP Revised YY Q2 2.2% 2.2% Percent India 3 Sep 13:00 Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Aug Index Japan 3 Sep 07:50 Business Capex (MOF) YY Q2 3.4% Percent 3 Sep 08:30 Nikkei Mfg PMI Aug 52.5 Index 5 Sep 08:30 Services PMI Aug 51.3 Index 7 Sep 07:30 All Household Spending YY Jul -0.9% -1.2% Percent 7 Sep 07:30 All Household Spending MM Jul -1.2% 2.9% Percent PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 5

6 Date Time Economic Release Period Survey Actual Surprise Previous Unit Australia 3 Sep 09:30 Business Inventories Q2 0.3% 0.7% Percent 3 Sep 09:30 Retail Sales MM Jul 0.3% 0.4% Percent 4 Sep 09:30 Current Account Balance SA Q B B AUD 4 Sep 09:30 Net Exports Contribution Q2 0.10% 0.30% Percent 4 Sep 12:30 RBA Cash Rate Sep 1.50% 1.50% Percent 5 Sep 09:30 Real GDP QQ SA Q2 0.7% 1.0% Percent 5 Sep 09:30 Real GDP YY SA Q2 2.8% 3.1% Percent 6 Sep 09:30 Trade Balance G&S (A$) Jul 1,400M 1,873M AUD 7 Sep 09:30 Housing Finance Jul 0.0% -1.1% Percent New Zealand 3 Sep 06:45 Terms of Trade QQ Q2 1.0% -1.9% Percent 3 Sep 06:45 Export Volumes SA Q2 2.3% -2.9% Percent 3 Sep 06:45 Import Prices SA Q2 2.0% -0.3% Percent 3 Sep 06:45 Export Prices SA Q2 3.0% -2.2% Percent 4 Sep Milk Auctions 4 Sep, w/e 3,044 Tonne Source: Reuters/ Phillip Futures Note: Releases highlighted in red denote indicators which are deemed by the analyst to potentially cause significant market movements PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 6

7 GENERAL DISCLAIMER / DISCLOSURE This publication is prepared by Phillip Futures Pte Ltd., 250 North Bridge Road, #07-01, Raffles City Tower, Singapore (Registration Number: G), which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore ( Phillip Futures ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this document by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately. Phillip Futures shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Futures has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively, the Research ) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief of the individual author or the indicated source (as applicable) only. Phillip Futures has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete, appropriate or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Futures shall not have any responsibility to maintain or update the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Futures or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Futures, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, (i) be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any special, direct, indirect, incidental or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance or usage of this publication or (ii) accept any legal responsibility from any person who receives this publication, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. You must make the final investment decision and accept all responsibility for your investment decision including but not limited to your reliance on the information, data and/or other materials presented in this publication. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of any product referred to in this publication is not indicative of future results. This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. This publication should not be relied upon exclusively or as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this publication involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks. Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any product. Any decision to purchase any product mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such product. Phillip Futures, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Futures, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Futures, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Futures, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this publication, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Futures, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Futures, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments as may be mentioned in this publication. Phillip Futures or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Futures, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment. To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Futures, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Futures, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold a interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments which may be mentioned in this publication. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Futures, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Futures, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this material, and Phillip Futures, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Futures, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Futures, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Futures, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this material. The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Futures to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction. PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 7

8 Section 27 of the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore and the MAS Notice on Recommendations on Investment Products (FAA-N01) do not apply in respect of this publication. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. Please contact Phillip Futures at [ ] in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. This report is only for the purpose of distribution in Singapore. PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 8