Currency Report- Daily

Transcription

1 ASIA E.U U.S.A Currency Report- Daily Wednesday 15 Nov 2017 Global Market Overview US stock indexes fell yesterday as a drop in crude oil prices hit energy stocks and the impact was seen in Asia where indices slipped today, while the euro kept big gains after enjoying a boost from robust German economic growth. Crude oil prices fell in Asia early today as U.S. industry inventory data weighed on sentiment and markets noted a more downbeat forecast for demand in 2018 by the IEA overnight. The Dollar Index traded lower yesterday pressured by a surge in the euro to three-week highs while upbeat US wholesale inflation data failed to stem losses in the greenback. The Indian unit is seen opening almost flat at against the Dollar today and is expected to play the range for the day. Markets Indices Last Close Previous Close % CHANGE Currencies Opening Closing % CHANGE S&P USDINR-S Dow Jones DXY NASDAQ EURUSD DAX GBPUSD FTSE USDJPY CAC USDCNY STOXX FPI FLOWS Current Previous NIKKEI Equity SHANGHAI Debt KOSPI Total HANG SENG SENSEX US 10Y NIFTY IRF

2 USDINR Intraday Outlook Fundamental Outlook: INR closed at against USD in last trading session with the intraday trading range of on the higher side and on the lower side. INR traded in a narrow range in last trading session with finally closing in red and giving up its early gains after dollar spiked globally against currency majors in the likes of Pound and Euro in second half of trading session. The major push in dollar came due to extended weakness in pound after YoY CPI and RPI figures missed the median market forecast although pound recovered the losses later. Global buying momentum in dollar overshadowed the strong WPI Inflation numbers which printed at 3.59% against the median markets forecast of 3.01%. Markets were also in favor of base currency on the expectations of better PPI numbers from US economy which finally printed better than expected at 0.4% reinforcing the market view of a rate hike in December s FOMC meet. In todays trading session USDINR is expected to trade sideways to bullish. Technical Outlook: This is the daily chart of USDINR, the pair has traded in the range of on the higher side and 65.28on the lower side and traded with a positve bias, the pair had a strong opening and traded in a narrow range, the pair has been trading above the short- to medium term moving averages of 20 and 50DMA with MACD remaining on the buy side, traders can utilize dips to go long during the week. Intraday Bias Intraday Trading Strategy Intraday Range (SPOT) Bullish-Sideways BUY USDINRFUT TGT SL Levels S3 S2 S1 (Futures) R R

3 EURINR Intraday Outlook Fundamental Outlook Euro closed at INR in previous trading session with the trading range of on the higher side and on lower side. However, it closed at against U.S Dollar with trading range of on the higher side and on lower side in NDF markets. Euro appreciated with strong buying momentum in last trading session after major macroeconomic updates of German Prelim GDP QoQ printed better than expected at 0.8% showcasing strong growth in momentum in Eurozone s largest economy. The common currency was also boosted by the Flash GDP QoQ figures of Eurozone which came in line with the median market forecast of 0.6% yesterday as well as strong dip in GBP after lagging macroeconomic updates which it recovered later on. Market focus is expected to shift towards the Final CPI figures which are scheduled to be divulged tomorrow. In today s trading session Euro is expected to trade sideways to bearish. Technical Outlook This is the daily chart of EURUSD pair, the pair traded in a range of on the higher side and on the lower side, and traded with positive bias, the pair had a short covering late during the US session and trended on the higher side violating the 50DMA on the upside with yesterday having a bullish candle and prices closing above 50DMA placed at expect recovery to continue. Intraday Bias Intraday Trading Strategy Intraday Range (SPOT) Sideways-Bullish BUY EURUSD TGT SL BUY EURINR FUT TGT SL Levels S3 S2 S1 R2 R3 (Futures)

4 GBPINR Intraday Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP closed at INR in yesterday s trading session with the trading range of on the higher side and on the lower side domestically whereas it closed at with the trading range of on the higher side and on the lower side against US dollar in NDF markets. Pound had a volatile trading session yesterday with strong selling pressure witnessed after the YoY CPI and RPI figures missed the median market forecasts but the currency later on recovered as buyers came in for support at levels. The near term prospects of pound are weighed down by the political crisis developing in Britain where continuity of Theresa May as UK s Prime Minister and her ability to extract a favorable deal from European Union is in question. The escalating political tensions and not much of a progress in Brexit negotiations are not talking in favor of pound. In today s trading session GBPINR is expected to trade with a negative bias. Technical Outlook This is the daily chart of GBPUSD pair the pair traded in a range of on the higher side and on the lower side, and had a volatile session last day, the pair has been trading volatile after the release of the data and suddenly came down making a low at but could not sustain at lower levels and late during the Us session reversed and made a high near and found resistance at clusters of moving averages of 20 and 50DMA if violates expects strong momentum to pick up on the upside. Intraday Bias Sideways Levels (Futures) Intraday Trading Strategy BUYGBPUSD TGT SL Intraday Range (SPOT) BUY GBPINR FUT TGT SL S3 S2 S1 R2 R

5 JPYINR Intraday Outlook Fundamental Outlook Japanese Yen closed at INR per 100 Yen in previous trading session, trading in the range of on the higher side and on lower side. However, it closed at against U.S Dollar with trading range of on the higher side and on lower side in international markets. Japanese Yen appreciated against domestic currency in yesterday s trading session after the Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda spoke in favor of monetary easing in Japan at the Central Bank Communications Conference hosted by ECB in Frankfurt. The governor stood in favor of the sustained 2% inflation target and guided that tighter labor markets and rising prices at producer levels will definitely push the inflation rate at targeted levels over the period of time as organizations will find it difficult to not pass on the rising costs on consumers. The early morning update of Prelim GDP also missed the median market forecast and printed at 0.3% QoQ. Yen is expected to trade positive in today s trading session. Technical Outlook This is the dally chart of USDJPY pair, the pair was trading in a range of on the higher side and on the lower side,and traded with negative bias the pairhas been takeing support of 20DMA placed at and now trading below the said levels expects the trend to continue, on the flip side the pair has been finding a strong resistance near the supply zone of with MACD remaining above the zero line but with a negative crossover expects sidewise trend to continue in the near future. Intraday Bias Intraday Trading Strategy Intraday Range (SPOT) Sideways SELL USDJPY TGT SL BUY JPYINRFUT TGT SL Levels S3 S2 S1 R2 R3 (Futures)

6 Currency USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR November Imports Strategy Partially hedged at 65.00, & Spot. Partially hedged at & Spot. Partially booked at & Spot. Partially booked at Spot Hedging Strategies November Exports Strategy Partially booked at 64.85, 65.12, & Partially hedged at & Spot Partial booking done at Spot Partially hedged at & Spot Economic Data for the Day Time Currency Data Forecast Previous 01:30 PM USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks 03:00 PM GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.1% 2.2% GBP Claimant Count Change 2.0K 1.7K GBP Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 06:30 PM GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speaks 07:00 PM USD CPI m/m 0.1% 0.5% USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1% USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 1.0% USD Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 1.6% USD Empire State Manufacturing Index :00 PM USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.1M 2.2M Report prepared by: Siddhesh Ghare Deepak Agarwal Ashutosh Shukla Head Office Karvy Millennium,Plot No 31, Financial District, Gachibowli, Hyderabad Corporate Office 131, Andheri Industrial Estate, Off Veera Desai Road, Andheri (W), Mumbai T: / 6635 T: , Mob No Disclaimer: The information and analysis contained in this document come from sources believed to be reliable and our own internal research; however, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute an offer to sell/purchase or an invitation/ solicitation to do so for any currency, security, commodity or equity. Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, howsoever arising, from any use of this document, its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.no part of this document can be circulated or reproduced in any form without prior approval of Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd.