Supporting sentiment on the dollar was easing fears over a U.S.-China trade war after Larry Kudlow, director of the White House

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1 CURRENCY DAILY Market \` commentary Indian rupee recovered from previous session s losses and closed higher by 18paise at against the U.S. dollar, after the RBI lowered its inflation forecast and revised up its growth outlook. The rupee was supported by positive sentiments from the beginning, as easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China and a rally in global equities. The 1-year benchmark bond yield tumbled sharply to 7.13% from its previous close of 7.29%. The Reserve Bank concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting today, by leaving the key benchmark rate unchanged at 6% for the fourth consecutive time since August last year. While, the policy outcome was in line with expectation, RBI outlined a higher growth rate of 7.4% in the current financial year and lower inflationary forecast at % for the first half of the fiscal. In the cross currency trade, the local unit recouped against the pound to close at from and pulled back against the euro to close at as compared to 8.3 in the previous session. In forward market, premium for dollar fell sharply owing to sustained receiving from exporters. The 6-month forward premium payable in August declined to paise from 18-11paise, while the far-forward February 219 contract also dropped sharply to paise from paise in the previous session. Domestic equities rallied nearly 2% yesterday, tracking global equity markets that recovered after fears of a Sino-U.S. trade war eased, with metal stocks such as Hindalco Industries Ltd and banks such as ICICI Bank Ltd among top gainers. The dollar rose to a nearly 2-week high against a basket of major currencies, shrugging off softer economic data as diminishing trade-war fears supported sentiment. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose 24, to a seasonally adjusted 242, for the week ended March 3, while the trade deficit widened to $57.6bn in February from $56.7bn the prior month. FOREX synopsis Supporting sentiment on the dollar was easing fears over a U.S.-China trade war after Larry Kudlow, director of the White House Futures High Low Close %Chg OI %Chg Spot Close Prev close %Chg National Economic Council, suggested that the U.S. was willing to strike a deal with Beijing. NSE Rupee (.28) INR-Dollar (Apr) (.34) 6.83 Euro (.31) INR-Dollar (May) (.34) 3.17 British Pound (.54) Japanese Yen INR-Euro (Apr) (.48) (6.1) Australian($) (.41) INR-Euro (May) (.46) 1.97 Swiss Franc Canadian($) (.16) INR-Pound (Apr) (.24) (2.52) Dollar Index INR-Pound (May) (.28) (1.97) Global Equities INR-Yen (Apr) (1.14) (7.5) Maykets Close Prev close %Chg INR-Yen (May) (1.8) (24.27) Asia Sensex 33, , Forward Rates Nifty 1, , Rupee per Close Prev close %Chg Nikkie 21, , month (.28) Hang Seng 29, , month (.26) Shanghai 3, , RBI Reference rate Rupee per Close Prev close %Chg America Straits Times 3, , Dollar Dow Jones 24, , Euro (.2) Nasdaq 7, , Pound Yen (.36) Europe CAC 5, , Commodities DAX 12, , Close Prev close %Chg FTSE 7, , Spot Gold 3,476. 3,858. (1.24) Spot Silver 38, , FII's Flow Equity (in Rs cr.) Debt (in Rs cr.) Net Crude oil 4,115. 4, As on Apr. 4 (474.98) (72.6) (1177.) Copper As on Apr

2 Pivot Levels Futures R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 INR-Dollar (Apr) INR-Dollar (May) INR-Euro (Apr) INR-Euro (May) INR-Pound (Apr) INR-Pound (May) INR-Yen (Apr) INR-Yen (May) Spot R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Indian Rupee Euro British Pound Japanese Yen Australian($) Canadian($) Swiss Franc Dollar Index A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day. These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the currency. Technical Alerts USD-INR - April The currency pair holds support at , while on the upside resistance is seen at Indian Rupee s premium in Futures market Contract Spot Futures Premium 1-month month month month month month

3 USD-INR options OI analysis Near month i.e. April 18 Call OI Put OI 25 2 Call OI chg. Put OI chg Near +1 i.e. May Call OI Put OI Call OI chg. Put OI chg Call OI additions Call OI unwinding Put OI additions Put OI unwinding call, calls, calls. 63 call, 64 call, 64.5 call, calls puts, puts, puts. 64 put, puts. Outlook: The currency pair may find support around , while on the upside resistance is seen at levels.

4 Economic calendar Date Country / Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous 2-Apr JPY Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q1) 5:2 2.3%.6% 7.4% JPY Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q1) 5: JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1) 5: JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q1) 5: CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 7: USD Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 19: USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (Mar) 19: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 19: Apr USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks 3:3 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 14: USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks 19: 4-Apr USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 2: -3.28mn 1.7mn 5.321mn CNY Caixin Services PMI (Mar) 7: JPY 1-Year JGB Auction 9:15.6% GBP Construction PMI (Mar) 14: USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) 17:45 241k 25k 246k USD Services PMI (Mar) 19: USD Cap Goods Ship Non-Defense Ex Air (m-o-m) 19:3 1.2% 1.4% -1.4% USD Durable Goods Orders (m-o-m) 19:3 3% 3.1% USD Factory Orders (m-o-m) (Feb) 19:3 1.2% 1.8% -1.3% USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Mar) 19: USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 19: USD Crude Oil Inventories 2: mn -.287mn 1.643mn USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 2: 3.666mn 1.84mn USD Markit Composite PMI (Mar) 2: USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks 2:3 5-Apr INR Interest Rate Decision 14:3 6% 6.% 6.% GBP Services PMI (Mar) 15: USD Exports 18: 24.45bn 2.91bn USD Imports 18: bn bn USD Initial Jobless Claims 18: 242k 225k 218k USD Trade Balance (Feb) 18: -57.6bn -56.8bn -56.6bn 6-Apr JPY Household Spending (y-o-y) (Feb) 5:.3% 2.% JPY Household Spending (m-o-m) (Feb) 5: -.6% 2.7% USD Average Hourly Earnings (m-o-m) (Mar) 18:.2%.1% USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) 18: 198k 313k USD Participation Rate (Mar) 18: 63.% USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) 18: 192k 287k USD Unemployment Rate (Mar) 18: 4.% 4.1% USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 22:3

5 CURRENCY DAILY Commodity Research Team Pranav Mer Sr. Manager - Research / pranav.mer@adityavbirlacapital.com Sunil Darekar Advisor / sunil.darekar@adityabirlacapital.com Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient. No part of the information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements. The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness. Neither Aditya Birla Money Limited (ABML), its associate group companies, its directors, associates, employees nor any person connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinions expressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of Aditya Birla Money Limited or any of its associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no guarantee and does not indicate or guide to future performance. Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type. The contents in this document are intended for general information purposes only. This document or information mentioned therefore should not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with making any investment. The investment may not be suited to all the categories of investors. The recipients should therefore obtain your own professional, legal, tax and financial advice and assessment of their risk profile and financial condition before considering any decision. Aditya Birla Money Limited, its associate and group companies, its directors, associates, employees from time to time may have various interests/ positions in any of the securities of the Company(ies) mentioned therein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such securities or otherwise in other securities of the companies / organisation mentioned in the document or may have other interest with respect of any recommendation and / related information and opinions Aditya Birla Money Limited is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 214. SEBI Reg. No. INH2145