TOP ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE DAY

Transcription

1 November 14 th 2018

2 TOP ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE DAY TIME CURRENCY EVENT EXPECTED PREVIO US CONSENSUS IMPACT 12:30AM AUD Wage Price Index QoQ Q3 0.6%(Actual) 0.6% 0.65 NEGATIVE FOR AUD 09:30AM GBP Inflation Rate YoY OCT 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% POSITIVE FOR GBP 10:00PM EURO Employment Change YoY Prel Q3 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% POSITIVE FOR EURO 10:00PM EURO GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est Q3 1.7% 2.2% 1.7% NEGATIVE FOR EURO 01:30PM USD Core Inflation Rate YoY OCT 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% NEUTRAL FOR USD

3 SNAPSHOT SCRIP PRICE % CHANGE TREND AUDUSD WEAK NZDUSD STRONG EURUSD WEAK GBPUSD WEAK USDCAD STRONG USDJPY STRONG USDCHF STRONG DXY STRONG GOLD WEAK SILVER WEAK CRUDEOIL WEAK

4 ASIAN ECONOMY UPDATE MARKET BYTES: Japan economy contracts in Q3 ;Shrinks broad based The weakness in the economy witness across the board from private consumption to business investment and net exports all declining slightly relative to Q2.Expots hits the worst main reason was natural disaster it declined 7.1% on an annualize basis. Asian shares skid on Crude and gains in Dollar Asian shares slips on Wednesday trade as investors turns fearful for riskier asset like equities as falling crude oil prices raises concerns over global demand as well sinking on worries about weakening world demand and oversupply. OIL crushes below $56, record one day biggest drop Tuesday proves to be a black Tuesday for crude oil both Brent & WTI nosedives to 5 % & 7% respectively on the reports that OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast by 70,000 barrels per day (b/d) in its latest monthly record.

5 MSCI OUR VIEW BEARISH THREE BLACK CROWS ON DAILY CHARTS : MSCI index for EM currencies fell below 1595 level.it is near important support level of 1590.The range for the index would be It shows weakness in emerging economy currencies to create short positions in the specific currency against USD.

6 AUDUSD TREND: NEUTRAL TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: AUDUSD HOLDS On daily charts AUDUSD took support near 20 &50 days EMA crossover and trade with thin volumes near 10 day moving average also the 10 day moving average.it is expected prices to be consolidates near this level with negative bias. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL 10 SMA NEUTRAL BUY BUY NEUTRAL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL BUY SENTIMETER NEUTRAL BUY BUY NEUTRAL FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:AUSSIE HOLDS GAINS ON CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AUD holds gains against USD on the positive data recorded in terms of wages and consumer confidence.wage price index recorded growth in Q3 of 2.3% YoY basis similarly Westpac Bank Consumer Sentiment Index rose to in November from in previous month. STRATEGY SELL SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 AUDUSD

7 NZDUSD TREND: NEUTRAL TO BULLISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: NZDUSD TO TOUCH HANDLE The rally seems to be pause near the yesterday high of as can be seen from today s flat movement near the higher level. We expect prices to retreat to the levels of before continue with upward moment. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL 10 SMA SELL BUY SELL NEUTRAL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) NEUTRAL BUY BUY NEUTRAL SENTIMETER NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT : NZD GAINS ON UPBEAT CHINA INDUSTRAIL DATA Kiwi holds strength on the speculative news of US President Donald Trump s more conciliatory tone over trade with China. Today s china recorded gains in industrial output 5.9% also retail sales also went higher to 8.6% YoY basis in October. STARTEGY BUY SCRIPS SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 NZDUSD

8 EUROPEAN ECONOMY UPDATE MARKET BYTES: IMF forecast a slowdown in EURO ZONE. The IMF in its latest Regional Economic Outlook report for Middle East and Central Asia predict real GDP in the Euro area will slow to 1.9 percent in 2019 as compared to 2.9 percent in POUND attempts recovery on optimism of BREXIT The uncertainty and instability expected to over as is reported E.U. and U.K. have agreed on how to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland suggesting the final and most contentious stumbling block to a Brexit deal has been reached.

9 EURUSD TREND: NEUTRAL TO BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: EURUSD RISES TO TOUCH HANDLE. On daily charts pair is near the crossover of the bearish trend line from the highs of on September, if it able to cross above in the intraday trade more upside an be seen however momentum oscillators still giving bearish divergence. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI BUY BUY BUY SELL STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY SELL BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL 10 SMA NEUTRAL BUY BUY SELL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SENTIMETER NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT: EURO BOOKED GAINS AS PROFIT BOOKING RECORDED IN DOLLAR EURO stood firmed against USD as latter retreat lower from the highs further optimism arises out of the BREXIT negotiations, however the gains were short lived.today German data will be in focus of traders. STRATEGY SELL SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 EURUSD

10 GBPUSD TREND:NEUTRAL TO BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: GBPSUD STRONG RESISTANCE PLACED NEAR On daily charts GBPUSD faces a strong resistance near has it been retreated from this level in the previous sessions in September/October, volatility is quite thin a trade above or below will bring much movement in either side. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI SELL BUY SELL NEUTRAL STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL BOLLINGER BAND SELL SELL SELL NEUTRAL 10 SMA SELL SELL SELL SELL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SENTIMETER SELL NEUTRAL SELL SELL FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT: CABLE GAINS ON HOPE OF BREXIT BREAKTHROUGH Sterling rises against the EURO after May announced that BREXIT negotiations are in the final stages and there might be the mutual agreement on most of the deal negotiations including immigrations issues of IRISH Border. STRATEGY SELL SCRIPS SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 GBPUSD

11 US ECONOMY UPDATE MARKET BYTES: US Government Budget Deficit Enlarges in October. In October US government budget deficit increased to USD 100 billion from USD 63 billion in the same month of the previous year in line with market expectations. Outlays increased 18.3% to USD 353 billion while receipts climbed at 7.4% to USD 253 billion. October is the first month of the new 2018/2019 fiscal year. First Financial Strategic Dialogue between Canada- China Amid on going US-China trade war Canada participated in first ever strategic dialogue with china in Beijing on Monday and signs a deal to INCEASE THE TRADE RVEUNE by Although there are concerns in Canada raised over a clause in the new US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement that entry by any party into a free trade agreement with a non-market economy widely regarded as referring to China allow other parties to terminate the USMCA negotiation.

12 DOLLAR INDEX OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL TO BEARISH OUR VIEW: The dollar index fell after touching the mark and closed lower it formed a solid red candle and the prices expected to move towards

13 USDJPY TREND: NEUTRAL TO BULLISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: USDJPY FORMED MORNING STAR PATTERN ON DAILY CHARTS The prices took breather after touching the highs of on 8 th November and then it booked the profit further move towards levels however it paused near its 10 day moving average only to move forward. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI BUY BUY BUY BUY STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL BUY BUY NEUTRAL BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL BUY SELL BUY 10 SMA BUY SELL BUY BUY MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY SENTIMETER BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT: YEN WEAKER ON JAPAN Q3 DATA Japan economy shrinks in the Q3 on the account of slowdown in all sectors of the economy.yen booked the looses against USD in yesterday trade GDP contracts to 1.2% which is not encouraging to policy makers and will continue with massive stimulus program. STRATEGY BUY SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 USDJPY

14 USDCAD TREND:BULLISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: USDCAD COTINUE NORTHWAY The bullish slope extends from the lows of made on October 1 st.the prices takes the support of the rising trend line near Momentum oscillators continue to gives bullish divergence. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI SELL BUY BUY BUY STOCHASTIC SELL BUY BUY BUY BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL 10 SMA SELL SELL NEUTRAL BUY MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL NEUTRAL BUY SENTIMETER SELL BUY NEUTRAL BUY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: CAD LOWER AGAINST USD ON RISK APPETITE No Major data to be released from the Canada the move is mostly influenced by the performance of the USD,CUS CPI is due in the day later which will dictate the course of action. STRATEGY BUY SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 USDCAD

15 USDCHF TREND: NEUTRAL TO BULLISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: USDCHF RETREAT FROM HANDLE On daily charts the pair fall from the highs of on profit booking undertone still remains bullish.it might consolidates near levels before marching upwards. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI BUY SELL BUY BUY STOCHASTIC BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTARL BUY NEUTRAL 10 SMA NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL BUY MA CROSSOVER(20,50) NEUTRAL BUY BUY BUY SENTIMETER NEUTRAL BUY BUY BUY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: SWISS DEPOSITS EASE IN LAST WEEK CHF finds strength against USD on profit booking in the latter. Further investors will look for be the release of Switzerland s producer and import prices for October, to take the cues for the trend. STRATEGY BUY SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 USDCHF

16 GOLD TREND: NEUTRAL TO BEARISH Precious metal closed lower on Tuesday although it locked some gains on weaker dollar, however the gains were short lived. If it holds the level of 1200 some upside is expected in the yellow metal STRATEGY SELL SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE1 RESISTANCE2 GOLD

17 SILVER TREND: NEUTRAL TO BEARSIH TECHNICAL VIEW: On daily charts silver looking weak volatility increased on the lower side The silver metal break the important level of $14 still weakness is persisted in the commodity. STRATEGY SELL SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE2 SILVER

18 CRUDEOIL TREND: BEARISH Crude oil nosedives 7% aprox yesterday.it is expected to approach the lows of early 2017 around $51.OPEC s warns over demand outlook augmented by Saudi Arabia s decision to reduce crude output by 500,000 barrels per day in December suggest a wreaking scenario for the black gold. STRATEGY SELL SCRIP SUPPORT1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE1 RESISTANCE2 CRUDE OIL

19