Weekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Sep 23, 2013 with data as of Sep 20. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
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1 Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Weekly FX Insight Sep 23, 2013 with data as of Sep 20 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis Weekly FX Recap 01 High Yield Currencies Upcoming Economic Figures GBP/USD Citibank and Events 02 USD/JPY 07 Citibank and Arc Weekly Design FX is Focus a registered service 03 mark of USD/CNY Citibank, N.A. or Citigroup 08 Inc. Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited FX & Eco. Figures Interest Rate & FX 09 Economic Figures 10
2 Weekly FX Recap No Fed tapering sent the USD lower last week USD was undermined as the Fed did not taper the bond purchase program and the Fed Chairman Bernanke said no fixd calendar for tapering. USD Index fell 1.3% to close at USD outlook: USD Index may range trade between NZD rose as NZ GDP rose 2.5% in Q2, topped market estimates and market sentiment improved last week. NZD/USD rose 2.9% to close at last week. NZD outlook: NZD/USD may climb to upon consolidation, with support at GBP advanced as the BOE revised up the U.K. economic assessment at MPC Minutes. GBP/USD jumped 0.8% to close at GBP outlook: GBP/USD may climb to upon consolidation at level.. EUR rebounded as the Fed did not taper the bond purchase program and USD retreated last week. EUR/USD jumped 1.7% to last week. EUR outlook: EUR/USD may range trade between in the short term. 3.50% 3.00% Weekly changes versus US dollar 2.91% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 1.73% 0.82% 2.09% 0.45% 0.02% 1.61% -0.03% -0.50% EUR GBP CHF CAD JPY AUD NZD Spot gold Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Sep 20,
3 Upcoming Economic Figures and Events USD may be supported as Q2 U.S. GDP will likely be revised up Key Economic Data This Week: Sep 24 (Tue): German will release the Sep IFO Business Climate Index and may rise to 109.1, which may support the EUR. (Citi forecast: 109.1; market forecast: 108.0; prior: 107.5) Sep 25 (Wed): New Zealand will release the Aug Trade Balance and deficit may narrow, which may underpin the kiwi. (Citi forecast: -NZ$500million; prior: -NZ$774million) Sep 26 (Thur): U.K. will release the Q2 GDP and may maintain the growth of 0.7%, which may support the GBP. (Citi forecast: 0.7%; market forecast: 0.7%; prior: 0.7%) Sep 26 (Thur): U.S. will release the Q2 GDP and may be revised up to 2.8%, which may support the USD. (Citi forecast: 2.8%; market forecast: 2.7%; prior: 2.5%) 2
4 Weekly FX Focus: NZD and GBP buying opportunities to emerge upon short term consolidation 40% 35% 30% 25% Possibility of the Fed tapering % 35% 30% 20% 15% 10% 15% 10% 10% 5% 0% Oct-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 After Mar-14 Source: Citi, as of Sep 20, 2013 The Fed did not taper the bond purchase program unexpectedly in the FOMC meeting last week, which surprised the market and triggered the USD to plunge. But Citi analysts anticipate the Fed to taper the bond purchase program either in December this year or January next year as the U.S. economy continues to improve. This view is similar to market consensus. Thus, major currencies may resume the uptrend upon consolidation in the short term, after the recent rally. Buy-on-dip opportunities of NZD and GBP may emerge. NZD: New Zealand s consumption expenditure, dwelling and business investment are expected to rebound New Zealand s economic growth may accelerate to 3.0% from current level of 2.5%. Thus, the RBNZ may hike the rate from 2.5% to 2.75% in Q1 next year and to 3.75% by year-end, which may support the kiwi. GBP: Citi Analysts have revised this year and next year British economic growth estimate up to 1.4% and 3.0% respectively. The Bank of England may start to hike the rate earlier in The bank may raise rate from 0.5% to 0.75% by year-end of 2015 and to 1.75% by year-end of This will likely be GBP-positive. 3
5 AUD/USD AUD/USD may range trade between ( ) Last Price (7.29) High (7.40) Low (7.16) (6.87) (7.09) The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.76 exchange rate for reference (7.38) (7.53) 0-3m 0.96 (7.45) 6-12m 0.88 (6.83) Upcoming Economic Data No important economic data released this week Market Recap: AUD was supported as the Fed did not taper the bond purchase program and China non-official Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in Sep. AUD Outlook: AUD may be oversold in the short term and will likely consolidate. The improving Australia economy and a possible end of RBA rate cut cycle may send the AUD higher upon consolidation. Citi analysts anticipate the AUD/USD to rise to for the coming 0-3 months fibo MA Technical Analysis: AUD/USD may range trade between ( ) in the short term. Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Sep 20,
6 NZD/USD NZD may range trade between ( ) The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.76 exchange rate for reference Last Price (6.49) High (6.55) Low (6.28) (5.96) (6.33) (6.55) (6.73) 0-3m 0.86 (6.67) 6-12m 0.79 (6.13) Upcoming Economic Data Sep 25: Trade Balance Market Recap: NZD rose as NZ GDP rose 2.5% in Q2, topped market estimates and market sentiment improved last week. NZD Outlook: NZD may be oversold in the short term and will likely consolidate. NZ economic growth may accelerate to 3.0% next year and the RBNZ may start to raise rates in Q1 2014, which may support the kiwi. For the coming 0-3 months, NZD/USD may climb to 0.86 level fibo Technical Analysis: NZD/USD may range trade between ( ) and the next resistance may find at (6.73). Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Sep 20,
7 GBP/USD GBP may consolidate between ( ) Last Price (12.42) High (12.54) Low (12.24) (12.13) (12.28) (12.54) (12.71) 0-3m 1.65 (12.80) 6-12m 1.66 (12.88) The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.76 exchange rate for reference Upcoming Economic Data Sep 26: GDP Market Recap: GBP advanced as the BOE revised up the U.K. economic assessment at MPC Minutes. GBP Outlook: GBP may be oversold in the short term and will likely consolidate. As U.K. economy improves, the BOE may hike rates earlier at 2015, which may underpin the GBP. GBP/USD will likely rise to 1.65 for the coming 0-3 months. Technical Analysis: GBP/USD may consolidate between ( ), and the next resistance may find at (12.71) Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Sep 20,
8 USD/JPY USD/JPY may climb to ( ) Last Price (78.10) High (77.62) Low (79.38) The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.76 exchange rate for reference, and 1,000 yen per unit for JPY/HKD (80.72) (79.38) (77.14) (76.45) 0-3m (78.39) 6-12m (73.90) Upcoming Economic Data Sep 27: CPI Market Recap: JPY gains narrowed as the geopolitical risk in Syria receded and global equities rose last week. JPY Outlook: JPY may consolidate in the short term amid no Fed tapering last week. Japan will probably hike the sales tax next year and the BOJ may expand QE to reduce the impact on its economy, which may be bearish to the JPY. Since U.S.-Japan bond yield widens, JPY may be undermined, according to the past experience Technical Analysis: USD/JPY may rise to ( ), with support at (79.38) Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Sep 20,
9 USD/CNY USD/CNY may rise to 6.15 Last Price High Low 0-3m 6-12m Market Recap: The Fed did not taper the bond purchase program last week, which prompted the CNY to pare loss. CNY Outlook: Recent Chinese data showed Chinese economy may rebound in the short term, which may reduce the Chinese government s need for CNY devaluation. In addition, CNY may be supported due to the widening trade surplus. However, Chinese economy may slowdown in the fourth quarter of this year, which may induce CNY to devalue again. 0-3month target: 6.10 Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Sep 20,
10 Appendix 1: Citi Interest Rate and FX for 2013 Citi FX Outlook Citi FX Interest Rate 0-3 month 6-12 month 9/20/13 3Q 13 4Q 13 Dollar Index EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD USD/CNY Source: Citi, forecast as of Sep 19, 2013 downgraded upgraded EUR: EUR may be supported as the geopolitical risk in Syria recedes and the Fed did not taper its bond purchase program. EUR/USD may rise to in medium term. GBP: As U.K. economy improves, the BOE may hike rates earlier in 2015, which may send the GBP higher to 1.65 for the coming 0-3 months. AUD: The improving Australia economy and a possible end of RBA rate cut cycle may support the AUD/USD to climb to for the coming 0-3 months. NZD: NZ economy may accelerate to 3.0% next year and the RBNZ may hike rates in Q1 2014, which may underpin the kiwi. JPY: Japan will probably hike the sales tax next year and the BOJ may expand QE to reduce the impact on its economy, which may be bearish to the JPY. 9
11 Appendix 2: Upcoming Economic Figures (Sep 23, 2013 Sep 27, 2013) Source: Bloomberg L.P. 10
12 Important Disclosure For any enquiries, please call (852) This document is based on information provided by Citigroup Investment Research, Citigroup Global Markets, Citigroup Global Wealth Management and Citigroup Alternative Investments. It is provided for your information only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned herein should be made based on a review of your particular circumstances with your financial adviser. Investments referred to in this document are not recommendations of Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited ( Citibank ) or its affiliates. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Citibank believes to be reliable, Citi analysts do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete and condensed. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The document is not to be construed as a solicitation or recommendation of investment advice. Subject to the nature and contents of the document, the investments described herein are subject to fluctuations in price and/or value and investors may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal the amount invested. Certain investments contained in the document may have tax implications for private customers whereby levels and basis of taxation may be subject to change. Citibank does not provide tax advice and investors should seek advice from a tax adviser. Investment products: (i) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; (ii) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution (including Citibank); and (iii) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Citi Foreign Exchange: s are a joint venture between Citi s foreign exchange, global macro and technical strategy groups and our developed and emerging markets economists. Under normal circumstances, we expect to present s on a monthly schedule although we may offer intra month updates if circumstances dictate. Technical Trend: All views, opinions and estimates derived from CitiFX Technicals (i) may change without notice and (ii) may differ from those views;, opinions and estimates held or expressed by Citi or other Citi personnel, including Citi Foreign Exchange:. Should CitiFX Technicals not cover any major currency pairs, the indication of short-term technical "bullish", "bearish", or "neutral" trends will be based on the result of analysis with various widely known short-term technical analysis tools, namely RSI, MACD, fibonacci, stochastics, bollinger bands, and simple moving averages. 11
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