IFA GLOBAL RESEARCH DESK Blog: 24 January-2018

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1 24 January-2018

2 FROM CEO'S DESK The US Dollar has slumped to its lowest level since The DXY is currently at There are reports that say Muller may question Trump on his dismissal of Comey and Flynn. Any progress in this investigation would be negative for USD. Euro zone consumer confidence came in at its highest level since Considering how strong data has been, all eyes will be on the ECB on Thursday for timeline of further trimming of asset purchases. Euro zone and US manufacturing PMI, UK Claimant count and EIA crude inventory data due today. Likely range with down side bias. Rupee may decouple from EM and Asian peers as key domestic event looms. FPIs sold usd 39mn in debt and bought usd 242mn in equity on Monday. Asian currencies are % stronger against USD. Asian equities are trading with modest cuts. Importers are advised to wait with the stoploss of levels. Exporters are advised to book long term forwards at current levels. CURRENCY USDINR EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY COMMENTS The Indian rupee opened higher against US dollar as (FIIs) continued to buy in local equity and debt market. So far this year, FIIs have bought a combined $2 billion in equity and debt. Yesterday's rally in Euro was triggered by release of upbeat euro zone consumer confidence which came out in New York morning. Further, market is expecting hawkish ECB tomorrow. Pound jumped above levels n the back of stronger data. Today s job growth should be decent according to the manufacturing and construction PMIs but the real test is wage growth. The USD/JPY fell below for the first time since September, tracking the broad-based USD weakness in Asia as Treasury yields have backed-off from multi-year highs. INTRADAY OUTLOOK BEARISH BULLISH BULLISH BEARISH COMMODITIES/DI GOLD SILVER WTI CRUDE DOLLAR INDEX INFLOWS (23/01/2018) EQUITY DEBT TOTAL * Figures are in Rs. Crores LAST CHANGE % CHANGE REGION GLOBAL INDICES LAST CHANGE % CHANGE $1, % HANG SENG 32, % $ % ASIA KOSPI 2, % $ % NIKKEI 23, % % SENSEX 36, % INDIA NIFTY 11, % PURCHASE SELL NET CAC 5, % EUROPEAN DAX 13, % FTSE 7, % DOW 26, % US NASDAQ 7, %

3 COUNTRY TIME (IST) MAJOR GLOBAL EVENT ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS IMPACT ON FX 1/23/2018 JPY 8.44 PM BOJ policy rate -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% MIXED 1/24/2018 GBP 3.00 PM Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.50% 2.50% CENTRAL BANKS INTEREST RATES LIBOR RATES ON 1M 3M 6M 1Y CENTRAL BANK RATES NEXT MEETING USD RBI 6.00% February 7, 2018 EUR FED 1.50% January 30, 2018 GBP ECB 0.00% January 25, 2018 JPY BOE BOJ RBA 0.50% -0.10% 1.50% February 8, 2018 March 8, 2018 February 6, 2018 INDIA'S KEY RATES 10 YEAR LAST CARRY AGAINST USD REPO RATE 6.00% REVERSE REPO 5.75% TRADE INFLATION 5.21% CRR 4.00% INDIA 7.41% INR 4.50% GDP (Q/Q) 6.30% SLR 19.50% US 2.62% EUR 1.50% IIP 8.40% GBP 1.00% JPY -1.60%

4 OTHER MAJOR NEWS * Asian equities rally pauses as US dollar hits 3-year low * India s Modi Says Protectionism Is Hurting Global Trade * Euro zone January consumer confidence jumps to 17-year high CHART OF THE DAY - USDCAD SPOT RATE TECHNICAL OBSERVATION Technically, USDCAD is trapped in a symmetrical triangle pattern. Currently it is trading near support zone of levels. Breakout below this levels could lead the market to further downside and we may even see levels in the near term. INTRADAY BIAS BEARISH CURRENCY SHORT TERM MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK (3 MONTHS) (6 MONTHS) OUTLOOK USDINR BEARISH BEARISH $ INDEX BEARISH BEARISH EURUSD BULLISH BULLISH GBPUSD BULLISH BULLISH USDJPY BEARISH BEARISH AUDUSD BULLISH BULLISH USDCAD BEARISH BEARISH GOLD $1280-$1370 BULLISH $ $1420 BULLISH

5 CURRENCY TECHNICAL CHART

6 CURRENCY OPTION STRATEGIES:-

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