Metals & Energy Aug. 21, 2015

Transcription

1 Market synopsis Precious Metals Base metals High Low Close %Chg OI High Low Close %Chg OI MCX MCX (Rs/kg) Gold(Oct) (Rs/1 gm) 26,874 26,2 26, ,974 Alum.(Aug) ,591 Silver(Sept) (Rs/kg) 36,398 35,735 36, ,213 Copper(Aug) ,863 Gold Mini (Rs/1 gm) 26,746 26,145 26, ,942 Lead(Aug) ,9 Silver Mini (Rs/kg) 36,4 35,7 36, ,167 Nickel(Aug) (.2) 33,841 COMEX (US$/oz) Zinc(Aug) ,81 Gold(Dec) 1, , , ,251 COMEX (US$/Ib) Silver(Sept) ,792 Copper ,441 Ratios LME Inventory levels in US$ in US$ Ratio Base Metals Close Prev close %Chg Gold v/s Oil 1, Aluminum 3,33,1 3,338,225 (.2) Gold v/s Silver 1, Copper 353, ,2 (.2) Lead 196,7 198,775 (1.) Energy Nickel 455, ,168 (.1) High Low Close %Chg OI Zinc 54,85 53,475.3 MCX Cr. oil(aug) (Rs/bbl) 2,762 2,679 2, ,514 Currency Nat.gas(Aug) (Rs/mmbtu) ,797 Close Prev close %Chg NYMEX Rs/US$ Cr. oil(sept) (US$/bbl) ,683,677 US$/EUR Brent Cr. oil (US$/bbl) (1.1) 1,877,613 US$/GBP Nat.gas(Sep) (US$/mmbtu) ,37 JPY/US$ (.3) Pivot Levels MCX levels Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Gold 27,378 27,186 27,7 26,849 26,691 26,512 26,32 Silver 36,83 36,642 36,466 36,31 36,154 35,979 35,79 Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Crude oil 2,819 2,796 2,774 2,754 2,734 2,713 2,689 Nat. Gas International levels Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Gold 1, , , ,153. 1, , , Silver COMEX Copper Crude oil Br. Crude oil Nat. Gas LME Aluminum 1, , , ,575. 1, , , LME Copper 5, , , ,119. 5, ,54.5 5,17.74 LME Nickel 1, ,53. 1, ,45. 1, ,28. 1,28.75 LME Lead 1, , , ,716. 1, , ,69.49 LME Zinc 1, , , ,816. 1, , ,77.86 A pivot is a level at which the market direction can change for the day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the commodity.

2 Precious metals Market news and Technical forecast Gold prices rose to their highest in 5-weeks, as the dollar eased after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting suggested policymakers were in no hurry to raise interest rates. Although agreeing that the economy was nearing a point where rates should move higher, Fed officials last month were worried that lagging inflation and a weak global economy posed risks too big to commit to a rate "lift-off". Spot gold rose as much as 1.8% to $1,154 per ounce, its highest since July 15, and was up 1.7% at $1, towards the closing session, while U.S. gold for December delivery closed up 2.2% at $1,153.2 per ounce. The holdings of SPDR Gold trust increased at tons as on August 2, while that of ishares Silver Trust declined to 1,17.64 as on August 12. U.S. data yesterday showed, home resales rose to a near 8-1/2-year high in July while factory activity in the mid-atlantic region picked up. Rising prices have curbed physical gold demand in India and Chinese as buyers remained scarce, cutting premiums on bullion sold in the world's top two consumers. Technical outlook: Gold s intra-day trend remains positive till prices are trading above , while on the upside prices may rally towards Silver s intra-day trend remains positive till prices are trading above , with immediate resistance at 364, above which prices can test levels.

3 Energy complex Market news and Technical forecast Crude oil prices fell to almost $4 per barrel, their lowest level since the global financial crisis of 29, as supplies rose in North America and the Middle-east, filling stockpiles to record levels. Oil has lost a third of its value since June on high U.S. production, record crude pumping in the middle-east and concern about falling demand in Asian economies. U.S. crude stockpiles continues to grow, and last week s rise was partly because a U.S. refinery closed for repairs and also because imports rose to their highest level since April. OPEC continues to pump record levels of oil, adding to the global oil glut. Saudi Arabia exported 7.365mn bpd in June, up from 6.935mn bpd in May, industry data showed - Reuters. Natural gas futures extended early gains, after data showed that U.S. natural gas supplies rose less than expected last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended August 14 rose by 53bn cubic feet, below expectations for an increase of 7bn. Technical outlook: Crude oil s intra-day trend remains down till prices are trading below while on the downside prices can test supports Natural gas intra-day trend looks sideways to up till prices are trading above levels, with immediate resistance at 183.2, above which prices can rally towards levels.

4 Base metals Market news and Technical forecast Copper prices rallied, as a weaker dollar helped investors see value in a metal trading near sixyear lows, even as fears persisted that China's equity rout could signal deeply rooted economic problems. Chinese stocks tumbled, sending Asian shares to 2-year lows and underscoring fragile confidence in the world's second-largest economy and top copper consumer. 3-month copper on LME closed up 2.7% higher at $5,119 per ton from $4,985 on Wednesday, when it hit a 6-year low at $4,976. According to metals consultant CRU, bonded stocks in Shanghai have dropped to 57, tons from a mid-june peak at 7, tons. LME stocks at 353,625 tons are still close to highs seen last January, though data showed orders to remove metal from warehouses have jumped to 11,45 tons - Reuters. Nickel prices have remained under pressure from weak end-user demand, which overshadowed the latest industry data showing the global market surplus shrank in June. Technical outlook: Copper s intra-day trend looks sideways to up till prices are trading above , while on the upside prices can test levels. Nickel s intra-day trend remains sideways till prices are trading below , with support at 675 and next at 665. Lead intra-day trend looks sideways to up till prices are trading above 11.5, while on the upside resistance holds at levels. Zinc s intra-day trend looks positive and prices are expected to trade in range.

5 Metals & Energy Aug. 21, 215 Spreads and Arbitrage Calendar spreads Global Indices Commodity Near month 2nd month Close Prev close Markets Close Prev close %Chg Precious metals Gold (Rs/1 gm) 26,849 27, Sensex 27, ,931.6 (1.2) Silver (Rs/kg) 36,31 35, Nifty 8, ,495.2 (1.4) Asia Nikkie 2,33.5 2,222.6 (.9) Base metals Hang Seng 22, ,167.9 (1.8) Alum. (Rs/kg) Shanghai 3, ,794.1 (3.4) Copper (Rs/kg) Straits Times 3,9.8 3,41.3 (1.) Lead (Rs/kg) Nickel (Rs/kg) America Zinc (Rs/kg) Dow Jones 16, ,348.7 (2.1) Energy Cr. oil (Rs/bbl) 2,754 2, Europe Nasdaq 4, ,19.1 (2.8) Nat.gas (Rs/mmbtu) CAC 4, ,884.1 (2.1) DAX 1, ,682.2 (2.3) National-International price parity FTSE 6, ,43.5 (.6) MCX COMEX Close* Prev close* INR Arbitrage Gold 26,849 1, Metals & Oil Close Prev close %Chg Silver 36, (423.) (341.14) Lead - Zinc (7.15) (6.5) 18.2 Copper Gold - Silver Crude oil 2, Brent - U.S. crude (13.8) *MCX premium/ (discount) COMEX Gold Options (Near month i.e. Sept.) 7 6 Call OI Put OI Call OI chg. Put OI chg. Near + 1 month i.e. Oct. 12 Call OI Put OI Call OI chg. Put OI chg

6 Economic calendar Date Country / Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous 17-Aug JPY Gross Domestic Product (q-o-q) 5:2 -.4% -.5% 1.1% JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized 5:2-1.6% -1.8% 4.5% JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (q-o-q) 5:2.%.1% 2.2% USD NAHB Housing Market Index 19: Aug USD Total Net TIC Flows :3 -$11.5bn $19.6bn USD Net Long-term TIC Flows :3 $13.1bn $93.bn GBP Consumer Price Index (m-o-m) 14: -.2% -.3%.% GBP Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 14:.1%.%.% GBP Core Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 14: 1.2%.9%.8% USD Housing Starts (m-o-m) 18:.2%.5% 1.3% USD Building Permits (m-o-m) 18: -16.3% -1.3% 12.3% 19-Aug JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) 5: bn bn bn JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) 5: bn - 53.bn - 7.5bn JPY All Industry Activity Index (m-o-m) 1:.3%.4% -.5% USD MBA Mortgage Applications 16:3.1% USD Consumer Price Index (m-o-m) 18:.1%.1%.3% USD Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 18:.2%.2%.1% USD CPI Ex Food & Energy (m-o-m) 18:.1%.2%.2% USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (y-o-y) 18: 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from July USD FOMC Meeting 23:3 2-Aug GBP Retail Sales (y-o-y) 14: 4.3% 4.3% 4.1% GBP Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (y-o-y) 14: 4.2% 4.4% 4.2% USD Initial Jobless Claims 18: 277k 272k 273k USD Continuing Claims 18: 2254k 2265k 2278k USD Leading Indicators 19:3 -.2%.2%.6% USD Existing Home Sales (m-o-m) 19:3 2% -1.5% 3.% USD Philadelphia Fed. 19: Aug EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey 11: GBP Central Government NCR 14: 17.7bn GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) 14: -2.8bn 8.6bn GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) 14: 13.9bn USD Markit Manufacturing PMI 19: EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 19: USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 22:3 884

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