Metals & Energy May 10, 2016

Transcription

1 Market synopsis Precious Metals Base metals High Low Close %Chg OI High Low Close %Chg OI MCX MCX (Rs/kg) Gold(Jun) (Rs/1 gm) 3,215 29,765 29,85 (1.9) 11,68 Alum.(May) (2.3) 4,14 Silver(July) (Rs/kg) 41,559 4,511 4,749 (2.4) 1,338 Copper(June) (2.2) 25,43 Gold Mini (Rs/1 gm) 3,312 29,75 29,85 (1.8) 1,752 Lead(May) (.7) 2,21 Silver Mini (Rs/kg) 41,632 4,531 4,752 (2.4) 9,496 Nickel(May) (4.2) 23,37 COMEX (US$/oz) Zinc(May) (2.7) 3,67 Gold(Jun) 1, , ,266.6 (2.1) 591,636 COMEX (US$/Ib) Silver(July) (2.5) 24,913 Copper (2.2) 179,477 Ratios LME Inventory levels in US$ in US$ Ratio Base Metals Close Prev close %Chg Gold v/s Oil 1, Aluminum 2,612,625 2,617,55 (.2) Gold v/s Silver 1, Copper 159,6 159,25.4 Lead 173, ,25 (.1) Energy Nickel 414,69 415,284 (.1) MCX High Low Close %Chg OI Zinc 394,3 395,175 (.2) Cr. oil(may) (Rs/bbl) 3,46 2,92 2,911 (2.2) 2,588 Currency Nat.gas(May) (Rs/mmbtu) ,532 Close Prev close %Chg NYMEX Rs/US$ Cr. oil(jun) (US$/bbl) (2.7) 1,755,23 US$/EUR (.2) Brent Cr. oil (US$/bbl) (3.8) 2,151,71 US$/GBP (.1) Nat.gas(Jun) (US$/mmbtu) (.1) 1,82,796 JPY/US$ Pivot Levels MCX levels Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Gold 3,158 3,3 29,911 29,85 29,699 29,58 29,452 Silver 41,572 41,273 4,995 4,749 4,53 4,225 39,926 Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Crude oil 3,24 2,983 2,945 2,911 2,877 2,839 2,798 Nat. Gas International levels Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Gold 1, , , , , , , Silver COMEX Copper Crude oil Br. Crude oil Nat. Gas LME Aluminum 1, ,581. 1,57.4 1,561. 1, ,541. 1,529.6 LME Copper 4, ,737. 4, ,686. 4, ,635. 4,65.93 LME Nickel 8, ,818. 8, ,65. 8, ,392. 8,27.59 LME Lead 1, ,744. 1, ,73.5 1, ,717. 1,79.31 LME Zinc 1, , , ,835. 1, , ,79.65 A pivot is a level at which the market direction can change for the day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the commodity.

2 Precious metals Market news and Technical forecast Gold fell more than 2% in its biggest one-day drop in nearly 7-weeks, as a strengthening dollar and a sharper appetite for high rise assets sparked selling across commodities. The metal's failure to break above $1,3, after a weaker than expected U.S. jobs report on Friday, also lead profit-taking among inventors. Spot gold was down 1.9% at $1, per ounce towards the closing session, erasing the.8% gain made on Friday after weak non-farm payrolls data. U.S. gold futures for June closed down 2.1% at $1, The sharp drop came after gold snapped 4-days of losses on Friday, when the payrolls report showed that the U.S. economy added the fewest jobs in 7-months in April, leaving some economists expecting only one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year. The holdings of SPDR Gold trust increased to , as on May 9, while that of ishares Silver trust declined to 1,454.5 tons, as of May 5. Japanese s yen tumbled against the U.S. dollar, as Japan signaled it was ready to intervene in the currency market, while a drop in oil prices undercut stocks. Technical outlook: Gold s intra-trend remains down till prices are trading below 31, while on the downside prices may test levels. Silver s intra-day trend remains down till prices are trading below 4-414, while on the downside prices may test 45-4 levels.

3 Energy complex Market news and Technical forecast Oil prices pared early gains and fell sharply, on expectations that U.S. crude inventories would again build to record highs, taking the market's focus off swooning Canadian oil output due to raging wildfires. In early trading, oil rallied more than 2% as investors considered the loss of half, or more than 1mn barrels per day (bpd), of Canadian oilsands supply. Canada exports almost all its crude from oilsands to the United States. July WTI oil hit its highest premium in more than 3-months to July Brent oil, due to relatively superior performance of U.S. crude since the wildfire. The U.S. market typically trades at a discount to the European benchmark. Yesterday, market intelligence firm Genscape's report of an inventory build of 1.4mn barrels at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub for WTI futures, added pressure on oil prices. Investors were also wary of Saudi Arabia's appointment of a new Energy Minister, Khalid al- Falih, who was expected to strengthen the kingdom's focus on oil market share over price defense. Natural gas futures edged lower, after the latest U.S. weather model called for mild temperatures over the next 2-weeks, which should reduce heating demand during that time. Technical outlook: Crude oil s trend looks sideways till prices are trading above support at 289, while on the upside prices may test Natural gas remains positive till prices are trading above , while on the upside prices may rally towards levels.

4 Base metals Market news and Technical forecast Copper hit its lowest in nearly a month, as weak trade data from top consumer China highlighted poor demand growth prospects and the dollar rose after a Fed official kept rate hike expectations intact. Benchmark copper on LME closed down 2.6% at $4,686 per ton, having earlier touched $4,685, its lowest since April 12. Also weighing on copper are high stocks in warehouses approved by the LME and those monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange. China's exports and imports fell more than expected in April, underlining weak demand at home and abroad. In other metals, aluminum closed down 2.3% to $1,561 per ton, zinc down 2.8% to $1,835, and lead was down 1.2% at $1, month nickel slid 5% $8,65, its lowest since April 12. Technical outlook: Copper s intra-day trend looks down till prices are trading below , while on the downside prices may test levels. Nickel s trend remains down till prices are trading below , while on the downside prices may test levels. Zinc s trend remains down till prices are trading below 123.7, while on the downside prices may test levels. Lead holds strong support at 114.7, only below which more selling is expected. Till is holding, prices have good chance of rebounding towards levels. Aluminum s trend remains down till prices are trading below 15, while on the downside prices may test

5 Metals & Energy May 1, 216 Spreads and Arbitrage Calendar spreads Global Indices Commodity Near month 2nd month Close Prev close Markets Close Prev close %Chg Precious metals Gold (Rs/1 gm) 29,85 3, Sensex 25, , Silver (Rs/kg) 4,749 41, Nifty 7, , Asia Nikkie 16, , Base metals Hang Seng 2, , Alum. (Rs/kg) Shanghai 2, ,913.2 (2.8) Copper (Rs/kg) Straits Times 2, , Lead (Rs/kg) Nickel (Rs/kg) America Zinc (Rs/kg) Dow Jones 17, ,74.6 (.2) Energy Cr. oil (Rs/bbl) 2,911 2, Europe Nasdaq 4,75.2 4, Nat.gas (Rs/mmbtu) CAC 4, , DAX 9,98.5 9, National-International price parity FTSE 6, ,125.7 (.2) MCX COMEX Close* Prev close* INR Arbitrage Gold 29,85 1, Metals & Oil Close Prev close %Chg Silver 4, Lead - Zinc (6.45) (9.5) (28.7) Copper COMEX Gold - Silver Crude oil 2, Brent - U.S. crude (73.2) *MCX premium/ (discount) COMEX Gold Options (Near month i.e. June) 1 Call OI Put OI Call OI chg. Put OI chg. Near + 1 month i.e. July 4 35 Call OI Put OI Call OI chg. Put OI chg. -4

6 Economic calendar Date Country / Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous 8-May CNY Exports (y-o-y) -1.8%.% 12.% CNY Trade Balance $45.56b $4b $29.86b CNY Imports (y-o-y) -1.9% -4.% -8.% CNY Imports (y-o-y) CNY -5.7%.3% -2.% CNY Trade Balance CNY 298b b 194.6b 9-May JPY Consumer Confidence Index 1: EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (y-o-y) 11:3 1.7% -.1%.7% EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence 14: USD Labor Market Conditions Index Change 19: EUR OECD Economic Outlook 1-May CNY Aggregate Financing CNY 234.b CNY New Yuan Loans CNY 137.b CNY Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 7: 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% CNY Producer Price Index (y-o-y) 7: -3.4% -3.7% -4.3% EUR German IP n.s.a. and w.d.a. (y-o-y) 11:3 1.1% 1.3% EUR German Trade Balance (euros) 11:3 2.6b 2.3b GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) 14: GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) 14: GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) 14: USD Wholesale Inventories 19:3.1% -.5% 11-May JPY Coincident Index 1: JPY Leading Index 1: GBP Manufacturing Production (y-o-y) 14: -1.9% -1.8% GBP Industrial Production (y-o-y) 14: -.4% -.5% USD MBA Mortgage Applications 16:3 GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate 19:3.3% USD Monthly Budget Statement 23:3 $11b $156.7b 12-May JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) 5:2 96b 425.2b JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook JPY Bankruptcies (y-o-y) 1: % EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (y-o-y) 14:3.%.8% GBP Bank of England Inflation Report 16:3 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision 16:3.5%.5% GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target 16:3 375b 375b USD Initial Jobless Claims 18: 27k 274k USD Continuing Claims 18: 212k 2121k 14-May JPY BOJ Kuroda speaks in Tokyo 9: EUR German Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 11:3 -.1% -.1% EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (q-o-q) 11:3.6%.3% EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (y-o-y) 11:3 1.5% 1.3% EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (y-o-y) 11:3 1.2% 2.1% EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (y-o-y) 14:3 1.6% 1.6% EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (q-o-q) 14:3.6%.6% USD Advance Retail Sales 18:.8% -.3% USD Retail Sales Less Autos 18:.5%.1% USD U. of Michigan Confidence 19: USD U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 19:3 2.8% USD Business Inventories 19:3.2% -.1%

7 USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 22: May CNY Industrial Production (y-o-y) 11: 6.5% 6.8% CNY Industrial Production YTD (y-o-y) 11: 6.1% 5.8% CNY Retail Sales (y-o-y) 11: 1.6% 1.5% CNY Retail Sales YTD (y-o-y) 11: 1.4% 1.3% CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (y-o-y) 11: 11.% 1.7% Commodity Research Team Pranav Mer Sr. Manager - Research pranav.mer@adityavbirla.com Deepa Shakdwipee Sr. Research Analyst / deepa.shakdwipee@adityabirla.com Sivasubramaniam Palanisamy Sr. Technical Analyst / sivasubramaniam.p@adityabirla.com Sunil Darekar Advisor sunil.darekar@adityabirla.com Bharat Jha Advisor bharat.jha@adityabirla.com Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient. No part of the information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements. The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness. Neither (ABML), its associate group companies, its directors, associates, employees nor any person connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinions expressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of or any of its associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no guarantee and does not indicate or guide to future performance. Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type. The contents in this document are intended for general information purposes only. This document or information mentioned therefore should not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with making any investment. The investment may not be suited to all the categories of investors. The recipients should therefore obtain your own professional, legal, tax and financial advice and assessment of their risk profile and financial condition before considering any decision., its associate and group companies, its directors, associates, employees from time to time may have various interests/ positions in any of the securities of the Company(ies) mentioned therein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such securities or otherwise in other securities of the companies / organisation mentioned in the document or may have other interest with respect of any recommendation and / related information and opinions is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 214. SEBI Reg. No. INH2145