Weekly Market Review. 31 st March th April 2014

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Review 31 st March th April 2014

2 Contents International Equity Markets GCC Equity Currencies Commodities Interest Rates

3 International Equity Markets U.S. Labor Department data showed that employers boosted payrolls by 192k in March, following an upwardly- revised 197k gain in February. The unemployment rate held at 6.7 percent, even as more people entered the workforce Technology and consumer shares saw profit booking, after benchmark indexes had climbed to records on a government report showing employers added to payrolls last month. European stocks climbed for the 3 rd week, to their highest since 2008, as merger and acquisition activity and positive U.S. payrolls and manufacturing data increased optimism European Central Bank kept benchmark rates unchanged as it gives further liquidity boost to the EURO economy Asian stocks rose as positive U.S. data pointed to a recovery from harsh winter weather and China promised mini stimulus by selling bonds worth $24bn to strengthen its railway network Nikkei 225 rose 2.5 % this week as the yen headed for its lowest since January. Stocks rose even after the Tankan index of sentiment among large manufacturers missed estimates and the national sales tax was raised to 8% from 5 %, the first increased since S&P DJI Nasdaq Comp Euro Stoxx FTSE Dax CAC Nikkei Hang Seng Brazil - Bovespa Russia - Micex BSE Sensex Shanghai Comp EURO Stoxx 1 year performance S&P- 1 year performance

4 GCC Equities Qatar s GDP growth in 2013 hits 6.5% beating forecasts as pick up in construction activity aids growth Deyaar Development s shareholders approve the 25% foreign ownership limit. UPP has postponed its meet regarding increase in Foreign ownership limit to this week JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley have informally been signed for the EMAAR s retail and Mall s IPO DSI (Drake & Skull) board recommends not to pay dividends for 2013 Emirates Reit, UAE s first real-estate investment trust, increased its share sale to $175 million to accommodate investor demand. The IPO got oversubscribed over 3x with most bids coming in at lower end of the pricing ~ AED1.36 DAMAC Sukuk was issued at 4.97% below the indicative pricing of 5.31% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Tadawul* Qatar Index Kuwait Price Index Oman MAM Bahrain All Share Egypt EGX Istanbul 100 Index DFM Index 1 year performance Qatar Index 1 year performance

5 Currencies The dollar rose against the euro for 3 rd straight week, as FED s policy divergence with ECB outweighed conflicting commentary by U.S. officials and as jobs data failed to meet traders expectations The pound fell against most of its major counterparts this week amid signs that the U.K. economic recovery that has made the currency the best performer in the past 12 months is losing momentum The Brazilian real climbed the most in emerging markets, as the Brazilian central bank resumed auctions to extend maturities on swap contracts that supported the currency South Korea s won gained the most in at least 7 months this week amid capital inflows, while India s rupee retreated after the biggest quarterly advance since 2012 YUAN was little changed for the week as the Chinese government stepped up its support by announcing a mini stimulus to make the country s railway system more robust EUR / USD GBP / USD AUD / USD USD / JPY USD/ CHF USD/ CAD USD/ BRl USD/ RUB USD/ INR USD/ CNY DXY Index EURO/USD 1 year movement Dollar Index 1 year movement

6 Commodities Gold futures jumped the most in three weeks to end at $ /ounce after a government report showing U.S. job growth was less than expected triggered economic concerns, boosting demand for the metal as a store of value WTI and Brent both rose for a second day after U.S. employers increased payrolls in March, signaling fuel consumption may climb in the world s biggest oil-consuming country Wheat fell, capping the biggest weekly decline since January, on speculation that U.S. crops will get a boost from rain in the next week, easing drought conditions Coffee continued to rise as inventories on London s NYSE Liffe fell 23% and shipments from India may drop by ~10% as output declines Aluminum headed for the biggest weekly gain since November 2012 in London as orders to withdraw the metal from warehouses surged while producers curb output Gold spot Silver spot Copper-CMX Brent - ICE WTI - Nymex Wheat- CBOT Corn- CBOT Soybean- CBOT S&P GSCI Spot Index Baltic Dry Index WTI 1 year chart Gold spot 1 year chart

7 Interest Rates Treasury notes with short term maturities rose for the first time in 3 weeks as speculation cooled that the FED may accelerate its unwind of monetary stimulus after a report showed U.S. employers added fewer jobs than forecast in March Spain s 5 year note yields fell below their American equivalents for the first time since 2007 past week as euro-area bonds surged on bets the European Central Bank will add more stimulus to the economy and as the divergence between monetary policies of the FED and ECB continue The Bank of England will raise its official bank rate to 0.75 percent from the current record-low 0.5% by the middle of 2015, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News India sold $2.7 billion of notes due between 2022 and 2043 today in the first sale for the fiscal year that began April 1. The government last borrowed on Feb. 7, when it raised 100 billion rupees. This led the existing securities to suffer and the yields spiked up The Brazilian central bank raised the benchmark Selic rate for the 9th consecutive time to combat inflation, increasing it by 25 basis points to 11 per cent, the same level as January 2012 USD- 1w Libor USD - 3m Libor USD - 6m Libor USD - 10yr AED-1m EIBOR AED-3m EIBOR AED-12m EIBOR UK - 10yr Japan - 10yr U.S. 10 year generic bond yield 1 year performance JAPAN s 10 year generic yield 1 year performance

8 Important notice This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc ( Mashreq ) in the United Arab Emirates ( U.A.E. ). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq s prior express consent.