Metals & Energy Oct. 28, 2016

Transcription

1 Market synopsis Precious Metals Base metals High Low Close %Chg OI High Low Close %Chg OI MCX MCX (Rs/kg) Gold(Dec) (Rs/10 gm) 29,962 29,831 29, ,598 Alum.(Oct) ,933 Silver(Dec) (Rs/kg) 42,320 42,026 42, ,429 Copper(Nov) ,518 Gold Mini (Rs/10 gm) 30,080 29,910 30, ,345 Lead(Oct) (0.8) 5,622 Silver Mini (Rs/kg) 42,342 42,006 42, ,097 Nickel(Oct) ,341 COMEX (US$/oz) Zinc(Oct) ,164 Gold(Dec) 1, , , ,392 COMEX (US$/Ib) Silver(Dec) ,377 Copper ,447 Ratios LME Inventory levels in US$ in US$ Ratio Base Metals Close Prev close %Chg Gold v/s Oil 1, Aluminum 2,148,350 2,153,400 (0.2) Gold v/s Silver 1, Copper 331, ,225 (1.4) Lead 188, ,450 (0.1) Energy Nickel 362, ,484 (0.1) High Low Close %Chg OI Zinc 451, ,950 (0.1) MCX Cr. oil(nov) (Rs/bbl) 3,358 3,288 3, ,892 Currency Nat.gas(Nov) (Rs/mmbtu) ,926 Close Prev close %Chg NYMEX Rs/US$ Cr. oil(dec) (US$/bbl) ,821,508 US$/EUR (0.1) Brent Cr. oil (US$/bbl) ,157,710 US$/GBP (0.7) Nat.gas(Dec) (US$/mmbtu) ,128,460 JPY/US$ Pivot Levels MCX levels Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Gold 30,030 29,993 29,958 29,927 29,896 29,862 29,824 Silver 42,453 42,369 42,291 42,222 42,153 42,075 41,991 Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Crude oil 3,399 3,379 3,360 3,344 3,328 3,309 3,289 Nat. Gas International levels Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Gold 1, , , , , , , Silver COMEX Copper Crude oil Br. Crude oil Nat. Gas LME Aluminum 1, , , , , , , LME Copper 4, , , , , , , LME Nickel 10, , , , , , , LME Lead 2, , , , , , , LME Zinc 2, , , , , , , A pivot is a level at which the market direction can change for the day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the commodity.

2 Precious metals Market news and Technical forecast Gold traded steadily yesterday, pressured by strength in the U.S. dollar as the market awaits more signs about the timing of an expected U.S. interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve. Bets that the Fed will raise rates have driven the dollar to 9-month highs against a basket of currencies this week and limited gains in gold. The dollar index was about 0.3% higher. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,270 per ounce towards the closing session, while U.S. gold futures closed the session up 0.2% at $1,269.5 per ounce. Spot gold has traded in a $16 range over the last week. The holdings of SPDR Gold trust declined to tons, as on Oct. 26, while that of ishares Silver trust declined to 11, tons, as on Oct 21. Higher physical demand in India, the world's second-biggest consumer of gold, is supporting prices at lower levels and preventing a sell-off ahead of an expected Fed interest rate increase in December. The dollar traded firm against the other major currencies, despite the release of mixed U.S. economic reports as expectations for a rate hike later this year remained high. Technical outlook: Gold s momentum looks sideways till prices are trading below , while on the down side support holds at Silver s trend looks sideways till prices are trading above , while on the upside resistance holds at

3 Energy complex Market news and Technical forecast Crude oil prices closed higher yesterday, as commitments from Gulf OPEC members to cut production eased some lingering doubts in the market about cooperation from other producers. Energy ministers from Saudi Arabia and Gulf allies told their Russian counterpart this week they are willing to reduce peak oil output by 4%, sources familiar with the matter said - Reuters. Iraq, however, has called for an exemption, adding to the list of members seeking special treatment. The expectation was that Libya, Nigeria and Iran should be exempt as their output had been hit by wars and sanctions, OPEC sources said. OPEC members are expected to have a technical meeting today and a meeting with officials from non-member countries on Saturday. The cartel's oil ministers meet on Nov. 30, and are expected to work out how much individual countries should cut. Natural gas futures extended gains, rising to the highest levels of the session after data showed that gas supplies in storage in the U.S. rose broadly in line with market expectations. The U.S. EIA said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 73bn cubic feet in the week ended October 21, matching market expectations. Technical outlook: Crude oil s trend looks sideways till prices are trading below 3360, while on the downside support holds at Natural gas momentum looks down till prices are trading below 208, while on the downside prices may test

4 Base metals Market news and Technical forecast Copper prices hit a 2-week high yesterday, as the market focused on the likelihood of stronger demand in China, but gains were limited by reduced speculative activity after a spike earlier this week. Benchmark copper on LME closed up 1.1% at $4,790 per ton from an earlier $4,797, its lowest since October 13. Prices are up more than 3% so far this week. China's refined copper imports have fallen over the past 3-months, slumping 31% in September from a year earlier, partly as China has produced more metal after a surge in concentrate supply from Peruvian mines this year. Also supporting prices are copper stocks in LMEapproved warehouses, which is at 331,450 tons down more than 12% since late September. Among other metals, zinc closed up 1% at $2,363 while aluminum rose 1.2% at $1,699, lead slipped 0.1% to $2,046 and nickel gained 1% to $10,360 per ton on LME. Technical outlook: Copper s trend looks positive till prices are trading above , while on the upside prices may test Lead s trend looks positive till prices are trading above , while on the upside prices may test levels. Aluminum momentum looks positive till support at holds, while on the upside resistance is seen at Zinc s momentum looks positive till support at holds, while on the upside prices may test levels.

5 Spreads and Arbitrage Calendar spreads Global Indices Commodity Near month 2nd month Close Prev close Markets Close Prev close %Chg Precious metals Gold (Rs/10 gm) 29,927 29,880 (47) (27) Sensex 27, , Silver (Rs/kg) 42,222 42, Nifty 8, , Asia Nikkie 17, ,391.8 (0.3) Base metals Hang Seng 23, ,325.4 (0.8) Alum. (Rs/kg) Shanghai 3, ,116.3 (0.1) Copper (Rs/kg) Straits Times 2, , Lead (Rs/kg) Nickel (Rs/kg) America Zinc (Rs/kg) Dow Jones 18, ,199.3 (0.2) Energy Cr. oil (Rs/bbl) 3,344 3, Europe Nasdaq 5, ,250.3 (0.7) Nat.gas (Rs/mmbtu) CAC 4, ,534.6 (0.0) DAX 10, , National-International price parity FTSE 6, , MCX COMEX Close* Prev close* INR Arbitrage Gold 29,927 1, Metals & Oil Close Prev close %Chg Silver 42, Lead - Zinc (21.15) (18.75) 12.8 Copper COMEX Gold - Silver Crude oil 3, Brent - U.S. crude (6.2) *MCX premium/ (discount)

6 Economic calendar Date Country / Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous 24-Oct JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) 5: b 366.1b b JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) 5:20 349b 211.0b 364.4b JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg 6: EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI 13: EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI 13: EUR Markit Germany Services PMI 13: EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 13: EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI 13: EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI 13: USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI 19: EUR European Commission Economic Forecasts 25-Oct EUR German IFO - Business Climate 13: EUR German IFO - Current Assessment 13: EUR German IFO - Expectations 13: USD House Price Index (m-o-m) 18:30 0.7% 0.50% 0.50% USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (y-o-y) 18: % 5.10% 4.98% USD Consumer Confidence 19: EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks in Berlin 20:00 Carney Appears at House of Lords Economic GBP Committee 20:05 26-Oct JPY Small Business Confidence 10: EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey 11: USD MBA Mortgage Applications 16:30-4.1% 0.60% USD Advance Goods Trade Balance 18:00 -$56.08b -$60.5b -$58.4b USD Wholesale Inventories 18:00 0.2% 0.10% -0.20% USD Markit US Services PMI 19: USD Markit US Composite PMI 19: USD New Home Sales (MoM) 19:30 3.1% -3.10% -8.60% USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 20:00-553k -5247k USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 20: k 2469k USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory 20: k -1240k USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory 20: k -1635k 27-Oct CNY Industrial Profits (y-o-y) 7:00 7.7% 19.50% GBP Gross Domestic Product (y-o-y) 14:00 2.3% 2.10% 2.10% GBP Gross Domestic Product (q-o-q) 14:00 0.5% 0.30% 0.70% USD Durable Goods Orders 18:00-0.1% 0.10% 0.30% USD Durables Ex Transportation 18:00 0.2% 0.20% 0.10% USD Initial Jobless Claims 18:00 258k 256k 261k USD Continuing Claims 18: k 2052k 2054k USD Pending Home Sales (y-o-y) 19:30 2% 3.90% 28-Oct JPY National Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 5:00-0.5% -0.50% -0.50% JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (y-o-y) 5:00-0.5% -0.50% -0.50% JPY National CPI Index Ex Food, Energy (y-o-y) 5:00 0.0% 0.10% 0.20% JPY Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (y-o-y) 10: % 0.40% EUR French Gross Domestic Product (y-o-y) 11: % 1.30% EUR German Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 17: % 0.70% EUR German Consumer Price Index (m-o-m) 17: % 0.10% USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) 18: % 1.40% USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index 18: % 2.30% USD Personal Consumption 18: % 4.30%

7 USD U. of Michigan Confidence 19: USD U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 19: % USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 22: Commodity Research Team Pranav Mer Sr. Manager - Research pranav.mer@adityavbirla.com Deepa Shakdwipee Sr. Research Analyst / deepa.shakdwipee@adityabirla.com Sivasubramaniam Palanisamy Sr. Technical Analyst / sivasubramaniam.p@adityabirla.com Sunil Darekar Advisor sunil.darekar@adityabirla.com Bharat Jha Research Associate bharat.jha@adityabirla.com Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient. No part of the information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements. The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness. Neither (ABML), its associate group companies, its directors, associates, employees nor any person connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinions expressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of or any of its associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no guarantee and does not indicate or guide to future performance. Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type. The contents in this document are intended for general information purposes only. This document or information mentioned therefore should not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with making any investment. The investment may not be suited to all the categories of investors. The recipients should therefore obtain your own professional, legal, tax and financial advice and assessment of their risk profile and financial condition before considering any decision., its associate and group companies, its directors, associates, employees from time to time may have various interests/ positions in any of the securities of the Company(ies) mentioned therein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such securities or otherwise in other securities of the companies / organisation mentioned in the document or may have other interest with respect of any recommendation and / related information and opinions is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, SEBI Reg. No. INH