31 Dec Jan. 2019
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1 COMMODITY REPORT 31 Dec Jan Trade House 426 Alok Nagar, Kanadia Main Road Near Bangali Square Indore (M.P.) India Mobile :
2 COMMODITIES PREVIOUS WEEKS MOVEMENT(24-28 Dec ) MCX WEEK HIGH WEEK LOW VALUE CHANGED % CHANGED GOLD (FEB.) % SILVER (MAR.) % CRUDE OIL (JAN.) % NATURAL GAS (JAN.) % COPPER ( FEB.) % NICKEL (DEC.) % LEAD (DEC.) % ZINC (DEC.) % ALUMINIUM (DEC.) %
3 GOLD (FEB.) R BUY GOLD ON DIPS TGT 31100,31350 SL BELOW GOLD SELL ON RISE TGT 31400,31150 SL ABOVE OPEN R Pivot S HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE -484 S % CHANGE FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- As Dollar Recovers Gold Prices Slip On Friday in Asia Gold prices fell as the U.S. dollar recovered. For February delivery Gold Futures slipped 0.45% to $1, at 1:26 AM ET (06:26 GMT) on the Comex exchange, while the U.S. dollar index, tracking the greenback against a basket of six currencies, gained 0.2% to On Wednesday The Fed raised rates as expected by a quarter points at its December meeting. Yet it also sent out mixed signals to the market by lowering its economic forecast for 2019, while hinting that it would continue raising rates, but at a slower pace. Most Fed governors said they anticipate only two rate hikes next year, versus previous expectations for three. TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Gold last week was quite volatile and also took reverse movement from its major resistance level i.e For upcoming week it may continue to trades on lower side as well as test next immediate support of and if price sustains below this level then it can continue with bearish scenario towards next support and on upward side it has it has resistance level of and above this level it will push for quick recovery up to next resistance of its upper channel line i.e
4 SILVER (MAR.) R SILVER BUY ON DIPS TGT 37600, SL BELOW SILVER SELL ON RISE TGT 37600,36900 SL ABOVE OPEN R Pivot S S HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE -43 % CHANGE 0.35 FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- Main Street Bullish On Silver For Third Straight Year For the third consecutive year, Main Street investors look for silver to outperform all other metals next year The strong optimism for silver comes despite the fact that the metal has been the worst performer in the precious metals space in 2018; prices have declined 13% heading into the new year. March silver futures last traded at $17.76 an ounce, down 0.73% on the day. TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Silver last week broke its bearish resistance line i.e as well as also tests major resistance level of and took reverse movement as seen on daily chart. For upcoming trading session it will continue with down trend towards its bullish support line of and if price breaks this level then will be next crucial support. On upward side it has initial resistance of and if price maintains above this level then we expect recovery up to next resistance of as well as trend may also change.
5 CRUDE OIL (JAN.) R BUY CRUDE OIL ON DIPS 3250 TGT 3350,3450 SL BELOW 3100 CRUDE OIL SELL ON RISE 3500 TGT 3400,3300 SL ABOVE 3650 OPEN 3221 R Pivot 3201 S S HIGH 3237 LOW 3124 CLOSE 3183 CHANGE 62 % CHANGE FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- Crude Oil and Stocks Are Locked Together in a Downward Spiral Crude oil s biggest problem is panic over the economy -- and the correlations show it, for all the talk of Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)supply cuts and surging shale production.at the same time the last oil price crash in 2014, the S&P 500 Index and Brent crude moved in opposite directions. Oil s fall failed to prove much of a drag on U.S. equities and vice-versa, as represented by a strong negative correlation coefficient of.65 between the two assets. Such changed during the commodity s current collapse. Brent and the S&P are moving in tandem: The correlation has turned positive and strengthened to a robust.75. TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Crude oil last week was quite volatile. For upcoming period it may remain continue with bearish trend and price may test immediate support level i.e and if price sustains below this level then this bearish momentum can take price towards next support of 3500 and on upper side it has initial resistance of 3800 and above this level it will push for quick recovery up to next important resistance level of 3900 and above this level bullish trend will active.
6 COPPER (FEB.) R BUY COPPER ON DIPS 418 TGT 428,438 SL BELOW 403 COPPER SELL ON RISE 439 TGT 429,419 SL ABOVE 455 OPEN R Pivot S HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE -597 S % CHANGE 0.20 FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- On weaker US dollar base metals prices rise On Friday December 21 most base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise during early Asian trading after the dollar fell following some disappointing economic data from the United States that stoked concerns of a weakening economy. Althought US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the boards confidence over a sustained strong economic growth for the US, pushing them to raise interest rates again this week, market participants were quick to note his less hawkish statements in the central bank s accompanying statement and indications of fewer than expected increases in TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Copper last week showed sideways to bearish movement and broke its bearish key line of 435 as seen on daily chart. For upcoming period it will continue with downward scenario and price may test next support of 410 and after that 400 will act as a next major support. On upper side it has immediate resistance of 430 and if price holds this level then it shows sharp recovery up to next resistance of 440 and above this level trend may also change.
7 STATUS OF OUR LAST WEEK RECOMMENDATIONS ( Dec.2018) RECOMMENDATIONS PROFIT/LOSS STATUS BUY GOLD ON DIPS TGT 31100,31350 SL BELOW NOT EXEUTED GOLD SELL ON RISE TGT 31400,31150 SL ABOVE ST TGT SILVER BUY ON DIPS TGT 37600, SL BELOW NOT EXEUTED SILVER SELL ON RISE TGT 37600,36900 SL ABOVE NOT EXEUTED BUY CRUDE OIL ON DIPS 3250 TGT 3350,3450 SL BELOW NOT EXEUTED CRUDE OIL SELL ON RISE 3500 TGT 3400,3300 SL ABOVE NOT EXEUTED BUY COPPER ON DIPS 418 TGT 428,438 SL BELOW ST TGT COPPER SELL ON RISE 439 TGT 429,419 SL ABOVE NOT EXEUTED TOTAL P&L +8200
8 ECONOMIC CALENDER Time Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous Tuesday, January 1, 2019 All Day United States - New Year's Day Wednesday, January 2, :15 USD Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 53.9 Thursday, January 3, :45 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) 175K 179K 20:30 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) :30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Friday, January 4, :00 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 19:00 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Dec) 3.00% 3.10% 19:00 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec) 0.30% 0.20% 19:00 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) 178K 155K 19:00 USD Participation Rate (Dec) 62.90% 19:00 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) 175K 161K 19:00 USD Unemployment Rate (Dec) 3.70% 3.70% 20:15 USD Markit Composite PMI (Dec) :15 USD Services PMI (Dec) :45 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks 20:45 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks 21:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 21:30 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 23:30 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 23:30 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 19:00 USD Unemployment Rate (Nov) 3.70% 3.70% 20:30 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (Dec) :30 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)
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