Global Market Overview

Transcription

1 At least 800 people are confirmed to have died in Indonesia and the death toll is expected to rise sharply after the magnitude of 7.5 earthquake hit the country on Friday. Brent Crude oil prices are trading at a four year high boosted by the looming sanctions against Iran. Foreign Portfolio Investors have withdrawn more than over INR 21,000 Cr during the month of September from local Equity and Debt markets, the highest in last four months. China is expected to cut import tariffs on textile and metals to promote the balanced development of foreign trade and promote a high level of opening up to the outside world. Shares of Tesla lost around 14% after US regulators sued CEO Elon Musk in a fraud complaint that seeks to remove him as CEO. US Equities ended flat on Friday pulled by news of Tesla and Facebook. Asian Equities were seen trading mixed this morning and SGX Nifty is also indicating a flat start to the local bourses. Indian Rupee is likely to open near a dollar and is expected to trade between range for the day. Markets Indices Last Close Previous close % CHANGE Currencies Open Previous close % CHANGE U.S.A Global Market Overview Monday 01 st October 2018 S&P USDINR-S Dow Jones DXY NASDAQ EURUSD E.U DAX GBPUSD FTSE USDJPY CAC USDCNY STOXX FPI FLOWS Current Previous ASIA NIKKEI Equity SHANGHAI Debt KOSPI Total HANG SENG SENSEX US 10Y NIFTY IRF Interbank Rate O/N 1 W 1M 3M 6M 1Y USD LIBOR EURIBOR

2 Rupee Intraday Outlook RSI Stochastics MACD ADX Williams %R on Dips Indian Rupee is likely to remain flat to weaker today as the markets have witnessed a large spike in crude oil prices. Large positions are not expected to be formed ahead of a midweek trading holiday tomorrow and two day RBI Monetary policy meet starting on Wednesday. Continuous foreign capital outflow after the foreign investors withdrawn more than INR 21,000 Cr and crude prices trade higher would continue to build pressure on Rupee. For the day traders can adopt a buy on dips strategy but for a limited upside as the Dollar supply is expected to increase at levels. Bullish-Sideways BUY USDINR OCT FUT ABOVE SL TGT (Spot)

3 Euro Intraday Outlook RSI Stochastics MACD ADX Williams %R on Rise Euro moved lower last week as the worries over Italy fiscal deficit pulled the European single currency lower against the dollar. US economy growing robustly and Fed holding its track of raising rates while Europe is failing to show strong set of economic numbers combined with concerns over Italy and Brexit, the euro is expected to remain weaker in the coming weeks. Any rise in EURUSD pair should be utilized as a selling opportunity. For the day traders can adopt a sell on rise strategy in EURUSD pair. Bearish (Fut) SELL EURUSD FUT TGT SL SELL EURINR FUT TGT SL

4 Pound Intraday Outlook RSI Stochastics MACD ADX Williams %R on Rise Pound dollar traded in a broader range of on the higher side and on the lower side. Sterling has been on a weaker note on a last trading day after the Fed raised interest rate last week, the pair had reversed from 1.33 handle and now trades near levels, this week focus shift to Tory Party Conference that ends with a speech by Prime Minister May in the middle of the week, while Brexit talks and UK PMIs number will drive the pair. Sideways-Bearish (fut) SELL GBPUSD FUT TGT SL SELL GBPINR FUT TGT SL

5 Yen Intraday Outlook RSI Stochastics MACD ADX Williams %R on Dips Dollar-Yen traded in a broader range of on the higher side and on the lower side. Dollar yen strengthen and made a fresh highs after the Fed raised interest rate last week, the reason for strength came from Fed s dot plot moved in favor of another rate hike in December now market would be focusing on The September ISM numbers and nonfarm payrolls report this week For the day trades can follow the buy on dips strategy. Bullish (fut) BUY USDJPY FUT TGT SL SELL JPYINR FUT TGT SL

6 Currency USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Hedging Strategies- Spot Levels October Imports Strategy Book Partially at Spot with a stop at for pending Book partially at Spot Book partially at Spot Book partially at Spot October Exports Strategy Hold Open with Stop below Book partially at Spot Book partially at Spot Book partially at Spot Economic Data for the Day Time Currency Data Forecast Previous 11:30 AM EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.4% -0.4% 02:00 PM GBP Manufacturing PMI GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.8B 4.0B 06:30 PM USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks 07:30 PM USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Report prepared by: Siddhesh Ghare Deepak Agarwal Bharath Sunnam siddhesh.ghare@karvy.com deepak.agarwal@karvy.com bharath.sunnam@karvy.com Head Office Karvy Millennium,Plot No 31, Financial District, Gachibowli, Hyderabad T: / 6635 Corporate Office 131, Andheri Industrial Estate, Off Veera Desai Road, Andheri (W), Mumbai T: , Mob No Disclaimer: The information and analysis contained in this document come from sources believed to be reliable and our own internal research; however, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute an offer to sell/purchase or an invitation/ solicitation to do so for any currency, security, commodity or equity. Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, howsoever arising, from any use of this document, its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.no part of this document can be circulated or reproduced in any form without prior approval of Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd.