Currency Highlights. 08 th March HighLights: Indian Rupee grew to four month high to on Tuesday

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1 HighLights: Indian Rupee grew to four month high to on Tuesday US Trade Balance was at a deficit of $48.5 billion in January German Factory Orders plunged by 7.4 percent in January UK s Halifax HPI grew by 0.1 percent in the previous month Indian Rupee recovered from its low to four month high and appreciated around 5 paise to end at against the US dollar on Tuesday. The currency appreciated on account of selling of dollars from exporters and banks. Gains in the rupee were also due to continued buying from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in both local equity and bond markets. So far this year, FIIs have bought $1.76 billion and $ million from local equity and debt markets, respectively. However, investors were cautious and are focusing on results of the upcoming state elections on 11 March. The markets are also gearing up for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in its two-day meeting on March. Market Highlights Last Prev Cl. Price Chng Price Chng % Dollar Index USD/INR (Spot) (0.02) (0.03) USD/INR (Nse Mar.) (0.05) (0.07) EUR/INR (Spot) (0.15) (0.21) EUR/INR (Nse Mar.) (0.16) (0.23) GBP/INR (Spot) (0.42) (0.52) GBP/INR (Nse Mar.) (0.47) (0.58) JPY/INR (Nse Mar.) (0.07) (0.12) Indian Rupee moved in the range of to in Tuesday s trade. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at and Euro stood at as on 7th Mar 17. For the month of March 2017, FII outflows in equities totalled at Rs crores ($ million) as on 7th March Year to date basis, net capital outflows stood at Rs crores ($ million) as on 7th March US Dollar Index grew around 0.2 percent in Tuesday s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, unfavourable economic data from the country capped sharp upside movement in the currency. US Trade Balance was at a deficit of $48.5 billion in January as against a deficit of $44.3 billion in December. Investor's Business Daily (IBD)/TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism plunged by 1.1 points to 55.3-mark in March from 56.4-level in February. Euro against dollar declined around 0.14 percent on Tuesday on account of strength in the dollar index coupled with weak global market sentiments. Moreover, unfavourable economic data from the region kept pressure on the currency. German Factory Orders plunged by 7.4 percent in January as against a rise of 5.2 percent a month ago. French Gov Budget Balance was at deficit of 5.4 billion Euros in January from a previous deficit of 69 billion Euros in December. Euro Zone Revised GDP unchanged at 0.4 percent in Q4 of The Sterling Pound dropped around 0.3 percent in Tuesday s trade on account of stronger dollar along with weak global market sentiments. However, favourable economic data from the country restricted sharp downside movement in the currency. UK s Halifax House Price Index (HPI) grew by 0.1 percent in February with respect to drop of 1.1 percent in January. The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated marginally in Tuesday s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Japan s Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.3 percent in Q4 of 2016 from 0.2 percent in previous quarter.

2 USDINR JPYINR The pair has been trading in falling channel pattern from past few weeks and price has taken the support of its lower band of channel pattern at levels on the hourly chart. Moreover, prices have been trading above its 21 HSMA which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices. A momentum indicator RSI has taken support at 30 levels, which suggest further positive momentum can be seen in the prices. In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover and moving above its signal line on an hourly chart. So for trading perspective, one can buy USDINR in the range of with SL of for the target of levels. On a daily chart, the pair has given a breakdown of its rising channel pattern at levels. The pair has shown a breakdown of its rising trend line at levels on a daily chart. Moreover, prices have been trading below its 21HSMA which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices. On daily chart momentum indicator, RSI is trading below 50 levels which indicate more downside momentum can be seen in the prices. In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative crossover which suggests a lack of strength in the prices on a daily chart. So for trading perspective, one can sell JPYINR in the range of with SL of for the target of levels. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 USDINR JPYINR

3 GBPINR EURINR The pair has been trading in symmetrical triangle formation from past few weeks and price has given a breakdown of its lower band of the pattern at levels on a daily chart. Moreover, prices have been trading below 21 DSMA, which suggest short term trend looks down. Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given negative crossover on a daily chart, which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices. The momentum indicator RSI has been trading below 50 levels on the daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of further downside momentum in the prices. For now, we expect prices should move lower towards 81 levels in the coming trading sessions. The price has taken the support of its horizontal trend line at levels o daily chart. The pair has been trading above its 10 HSMA on the hourly chart, which suggests further positive momentum can be seen in the prices. On daily chart momentum oscillator, RSI has been taking support at 35 levels on a daily chart, which suggests bullishness in the prices. A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover on the hourly chart, which supports our bullish view on the prices. For now, we can expect prices should move higher towards levels in the coming trading session. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 GBPINR EURINR

4 Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact Tentative Trade Balance 355B 173B Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; CNY :00 PM Annual Budget Release :45 PM ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 246K 184K Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; USDINR :00 PM Crude Oil Inventories 1.5M

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