Currency Highlights. 04 th May 2016

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1 HighLights: Indian Rupee rose marginally by 2 paise in Tuesday s trading session US IBD/ TIPP Economic Optimism rose by 2.4 points to 48.7-mark in May Euro Zone Producer Price Index (PPI) grew by 0.3 percent in March UK's Manufacturing PMI declined by 1.8 points to 49.2-mark in April Indian Rupee recovered from its previous fall and gained marginally around 2 paise to end at against the US dollar on Tuesday. The currency had appreciated on account of fresh selling of dollars from exporters and banks. Further, upside in the currency was seen due to combined output of eight crucial infrastructure sectors jumping to a 16-month high of 6.4 percent in March due to a double-digit growth in refinery products, fertilizers, cement and electricity. However, sharp positive movement in the currency was capped due to weak domestic market sentiments. Indian Rupee moved in the range of to in Tuesday s trading session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reference rate for dollar was seen at and Euro stood at on Tuesday. Market Highlights Last Prev Cl. Price Chng Price Chng % Dollar Index (0.29) (0.31) USD/INR (Spot) USD/INR (Nse Apr) EUR/INR (Spot) (0.04) (0.05) EUR/INR (Nse Apr) GBP/INR (Spot) GBP/INR (Nse Apr) JPY/INR (Nse Apr) US Dollar Index gained around 0.4 percent in Tuesday s trading session due to favourable economic data from the country. Further, upside in the currency was seen due to rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. US Investor's Business Daily (IBD) / TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism gained by 2.4 points to 48.7-mark in May as against a rise of 46.3-level in April. Total Vehicle Sales rose to 17.4 million in April from 16.6 million a month ago. Euro against dollar fell around 0.3 percent on Tuesday on account of strength in the dollar index. Further, weak global market sentiments led to negative movement in the currency. However, sharp fall in the currency was prevented as a result of optimistic data from the region. Euro Zone Producer Price Index (PPI) grew by 0.3 percent in March with respect to decline of 0.7 percent in a month ago. The Sterling Pound against dollar plunged around 0.9 percent in Tuesday s trade on account of strength in the dollar index. Further, weak global market sentiments along with unfavourable economic data from the country led to negative movement in the currency. UK's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 1.8 points to 49.2-mark in April from 51-level in March. British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index remained unchanged at negative 1.7 percent in the last month. The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.2 percent in yesterday s trade due to rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments in early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, less volatility was observed as Japanese markets were shut on the eve of Constitution Day holiday.

2 USDINR JPYINR On daily chart, USDINR has been taking support of its horizontal trends line at levels. On daily chart, price has formed tweezers bottom candle pattern which is bullish reversal formation. Moreover, price have been trading above its 60 Hourly exponential moving average so any dips upto level, it would become the best buying opportunity in near term. On hourly chart, prices have been taking support of its rising channel formation at levels. A momentum indicator RSI has been trading above 40 levels on daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices. Momentum indictor MACD has shown positive crossover on hourly chart, which gives positive confirmation to the prices. For now we expect prices to move higher towards levels in few trading sessions. On daily chart, JPYINR has formed bullish candle stick with gap up opening and closing with.46 paise up. The JPYINR price has shown breakout of its rising channel pattern levels. Moreover, Pair has been trading above its 100 hourly exponential moving average which suggest short term trend remains up. On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has given positive divergence which suggest more buying opportunity can be seen on lower side. A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover on hourly chart, which indicates short term trend remains positive. For now we expect prices to move higher towards levels in few trading sessions. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 USDINR JPYINR

3 GBPINR EURINR The price has given breakout its rectangle pattern at levels on daily chart. On the other hand, Pair has been trading above its 100 daily exponential moving average which indicates that trend is remains up. On daily chart, GBPINR has given breakout of its falling trend lien at levels. A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading above 60 levels on hourly chart which gives bullishness to the prices. Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover on four hourly chart which support our bullish view on the pair. For now we expect prices should move higher towards levels in the coming trading sessions. The pair has been trading in acceding triangle formation on daily chart. The price has given breakout its symmetrical pattern at levels on hourly chart. On the other hand, Pair has been trading above its 100 daily exponential moving average which indicates that trend is remains up. On daily chart, GBPINR has shown breakout of its rectangle pattern at levels. A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading above 60 levels on hourly chart which gives bullishness to the prices. Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover on four hourly chart which support our bullish view on the pair. For now we expect prices should move higher towards levels in the coming trading sessions. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 GBPINR EURINR

4 Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact :15am Caixin Manufacturing PMI Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Yuan :00pm Manufacturing PMI Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; GBPINR :00pm FOMC Member Mester Speaks

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