Daily FX Focus 19/3/2015

Transcription

1 Important Risk Warning Daily FX Focus 19/3/215 The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation and investment experience. Investment involves risk. Loss may be incurred as well as profits made as a result of buying and selling investment products. Currency conversion risk - the value of your foreign currency and RMB deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and RMB deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and RMB, you may suffer loss in principal. RMB is currently not freely convertible and subject to regulatory restrictions (which might be changed from time to time). For personal customers who are Hong Kong residents, conversions conducted through RMB deposit accounts with banks in Hong Kong are subject to the limit of up to RMB2, per person per day. Non-Hong Kong residents are not required to observe the corresponding limits and requirements regarding Renminbi conversions for Hong Kong residents. FX Focus:AUD/USD Australia Feb leading index rose.3% MoM, better than last month. AUD/USD once went up to.7848 level. AUD/USD s short-term support is at.7337, and resistance is at Currency RMB JPY CHF SGD * Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 2-days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 5-day moving average, can be used if needed. Current Trend AUD USD was pressurised as the market expected that US Fed is not in no rush to raise rates. EUR/USD EUR vs USD / rebounded and once touched a high of level. EUR/USD s short-term resistance is at , and support is at UK ILO unemployment rate was at 5.7% in the three months to January, higher than expected, GBP vs USD / employment increased 143k, higher than expected, but average weekly wages only increased 1.8% YoY, GBP/USD was pressurised and once fell to level. However, USD was later under pressure New Zealand Q4 GDP rose 3.5% YoY, better than expected. NZD/USD once elevated to.7548 level. NZD vs USD.7235 /.7663 NZD/USD s short-term support is at.7177, and resistance is at CAD Support / Resistance vs USD / USD/CNH was hovering in range of levels. The market is waiting for the release of manufacturing PMI. USD/CNH s short-term support is at , and resistance is at vs USD / vs USD.9441 / Switzerland Mar ZEW economic expectation index came in at -37.9, better than last month. USD/CHF once softened to.9629 level. vs USD / USD/SGD was lingering in range of levels. The market is waiting for the release of inflation data. Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the base currency Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the base currency Market commentary vs USD.7598 /.7899 Australia Feb leading index rose.3% MoM, better than last month. AUD/USD once went up to.7848 level. AUD/USD s short-term support is at.7337, and resistance is at Canada Jan wholesale trade dropped 3.1% MoM, weaker than expected. But USD was under pressure on the relatively dovish statement from the Fed. USD/CAD once fell to level. USD/CAD short-term support is at and resistance is at vs USD / Japan Feb trade deficit arrived at JPY424.6b, less than expected. USD/JPY once went down to 119. level. USD/JPY s short-term support is at , and resistance is at

2 19/3/215 AUD RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 2.25% in March and said that the domestic demand was overall quite weak. Economic growth remained below trend. Australia Feb leading index rose.3% MoM, better than last month. AUD/USD once went up to.7848 level. AUD/USD s short-term support is at.7337, and resistance is at Mar Daily change: 1.13% 1.13% (+) RBA kept the interest rate unchanged in March, out of market expectation High (~) Australia Q4 CPI rose 1.7% YoY, close to market expectation Low (+) Australia Feb unemployment rate came in at 6.3%, better than market expectation Support* (-) Australia Q3 GDP rose 2.7% YoY, worse than market expectation Resistance* AUD/SGD 6-month Chart AUD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.95 9 AUD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI EUR ECB announced to buy EURb bonds every month starting March, until September next year, in order to stimulate economy and support inflation.usd was pressurised as the market expected that US Fed is not in no rush to raise rates. EUR/USD rebounded and once touched a high of level. EUR/USD s short-term resistance is at , and support is at Mar Daily change: 1.65% 1.65% (~) Eurozone Q4 GDP rose.9% YoY, as expected High (~) Eurozone Feb CPI came in at -.3% YoY, as expected Low (~) Germany Feb unemployment rate arrived at 6.5%, in line with expectation Support* (-) Eurozone Feb manufacturing PMI arrived at 51, worse than expected Resistance* EUR/SGD 6-month Chart EUR/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average EUR/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI

3 19/3/215 GBP BoE revised down its inflation forecast for 215. It will tighten its monetary policy with a slower pace.uk ILO unemployment rate was at 5.7% in the three months to January, higher than expected, employment increased 143k, higher than expected, but average weekly wages only increased 1.8% YoY, GBP/USD was pressurised and once fell to level. However, USD was later under pressure on the relatively dovish statement from the Fed. GBP/USD once rebounded to level. GBP/USD s short-term resistance is at , and support is at Mar Daily change:.7%.7% (~) UK Q4 GDP rose 2.7% YoY, as expected High (-) UK Jan CPI rose.3% YoY, worse than expectation Low (~) Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged in Jan Support* (-) UK ILO unemployment rate was at 5.7% in the three months to January, higher than expected Resistance* GBP/SGD 6-month Chart GBP/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average GBP/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI NZD RBNZ kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.5% in March and indicated that New Zealand would face the risk of deflation for some time in future. NZD exchange rate is still overestimated. New Zealand Q4 GDP rose 3.5% YoY, better than expected. NZD/USD once elevated to.7548 level. NZD/USD s short-term support is at.7177, and resistance is at Mar Daily change: 1.48% 1.48% (~) RBNZ kept interest rate unchanged at 3.5% in Mar, in line with expectation High (-) New Zealand Q4 CPI rose.8% YoY, below market expectations Low (+) New Zealand Jan trade deficit was NZD1.41 billion, higher than expected Support* (+) New Zealand Q4 GDP rose 3.5% YoY, better than expected Resistance* NZD/SGD 6-month Chart NZD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average NZD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI

4 19/3/215 RMB The PBoC loosened its monetary policy to sustain economic growth.usd/cnh was hovering in range of levels. The market is waiting for the release of manufacturing PMI. USD/CNH s short-term support is at , and resistance is at Mar Daily change: -.54% -.54% (-) China Feb industrial production rose 6.8% YoY, lower than expected High (+) HSBC China Feb Manufacturing PMI arrived at 5.7, higher than expected Low (+) China Q4 GDP rose 7.3% YoY, higher than expected Support* (+) China Feb exports rose 48.9% YoY, higher than expected Resistance* RMB/SGD 6-month Chart RMB/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.18 9 RMB/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI CAD The Bank of Canada left its Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at.75% in March. The Governor mentioned that the current degree of stimulus policy is still appropriate, and the stronger growth in non-energy exports and investment is well underway.canada Jan wholesale trade dropped 3.1% MoM, weaker than expected. But USD was under pressure on the relatively dovish statement from the Fed. USD/CAD once fell to level. USD/CAD short-term support is at and resistance is at Mar (+) Canada Dec annualised GDP rose 2.8%, higher than expected Daily change:.88%.88% (+) Canada Jan CPI rose 1% YoY, higher than market expectation High (-) Canada Feb unemployment rate was 6.8%, worse than expected Low (-) Canada Dec retail sales drop 2% MoM, worse than expected Support* Resistance* CAD/SGD 6-month Chart CAD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average ` CAD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI

5 19/3/215 JPY BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged in March. BoJ Governor said falling oil prices may drag down inflation in the near term. Japan Feb trade deficit arrived at JPY424.6b, less than expected. USD/JPY once went down to 119. level. USD/JPY s short-term support is at , and resistance is at Mar Daily change:.18%.18% (-) Japan Feb Manufacturing PMI arrived at 51.5, lower than last month High (-) Japan Jan CPI nationwide ex fresh food (VAT included) arrived at 2.2% YoY, lower than market expectation Low (+) Japan Jan industrial production rose 3.7% MoM, lower than last month Support* (-) Japan Q4 GDP rose 1.5% YoY, worse than market expectation Resistance* JPY/SGD 6-month Chart JPY/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average JPY/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 9 The Bank of Canada left its Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at.75% in March. The Governor mentioned that the current degree of stimulus policy is still appropriate, and the stronger growth in non-energy exports and investment is well underway.canada Jan wholesale trade dropped 3.1% CHF MoM, weaker than expected. But USD was under pressure on the relatively dovish statement from the Fed. USD/CAD once fell to level. USD/CAD short-term support is at and resistance is at ` 19-Mar (-) Switzerland Feb CPI fell.8% YoY, lower than market expectation Daily change: 1.94% 1.94% (-) SNB lowered the interst rate on sight deposit account balances to -.75% on Jan 15 High (+) SNB dropped the EUR/CHF exchange rate floor on Jan 15 Low (~) Switzerland Feb unemployment rate came in at 3.5%, as expected Support* Resistance* CHF/SGD 6-month Chart CHF/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average CHF/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI

6 19/3/215 SGD BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged in March. BoJ Governor said falling oil prices may drag down inflation in the near term. Japan Feb trade deficit arrived at JPY424.6b, less than expected. USD/JPY once went down to 119. level. USD/JPY s short-term support is at , and resistance is at Tehnical Analysis vs USD 19-Mar 1.38 Daily change: -.89% (+) Singapore Q4 unemployment rate arrived at 1.9%, better than expected High 1.39 (-) Singapore Jan industrial production rose.9% YoY, lower than expected Low 1.36 (-) Singapore Dec retail sales rose 2.6% YoY, wrose than market expectation Support* 1.36 (+) Singapore Q4 GDP rose 2.1% YoY, better than market expectation Resistance* 1.39 USD/SGD 6-month Chart USD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average USD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 9

7 19/3/215 Important Economic Data Release Source: Bloomberg as of March 19, 215 Reporting period Analysts Consensus Previous Actual Date Events United States 16/3/215 Empire Manufacturing Mar /3/215 Industrial Production* Mar.2%.15%.7% 16/3/215 NAHB Housing Market Index Mar /3/215 Net Long-term Foreign Net Transactions Jan B - 17/3/215 Housing Starts* Mar 14K 165K - 18/3/215 MBA Mortgage Applications* Weekly -1.% - 19/3/215 Initial Jobless Claims* Weekly 292K 289K - 19/3/215 Continuing Claims Weekly 24K 2418K - 19/3/215 Leading Indicators* Mar.2%.2% - 19/3/215 Philidelphia Fed Mar Regional 16/3/215 Australia New Motro Vehicle Sales YoY Mar 2.9% 2.9% 17/3/215 Hong Kong Unemployment Rate SA Mar 3.% 3.% - 19/3/215 New Zealand GDP YoY Qtrly 3.4% 3.2% - 2/3/215 New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) Mar 6.2% - 2/3/215 Hong Kon CPI Composite Index (YoY) Mar 4.2% 4.1% - G7 Countries 16/3/215 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM) Apr 1% 1% 17/3/215 Canada Manufacturing Sales MoM Jan -1.15% 1.68% - 17/3/215 Germany Germany ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment)* Mar /3/215 Germany ZEW Survey (Current Situation)* Mar /3/215 Japan Merchands Trade Balance Total Mar B B - 18/3/215 UK Jobless Claims Change* Mar -% -38.% - 18/3/215 UK Claimant Count Rate* Mar 2.4% 2.5% - 18/3/215 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) Jan 5.% 5.7% - 19/3/215 Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) Jan 1.9% -.% - 2/3/215 Canada Consumer Price Index YoY* Mar 1% 1% - 2/3/215 Canada Retail Sales MoM Jan -.5% -2% - 2/3/215 Canada Bank ocanada CPU Core YoY Mar 2.1% 2.2% -

8 19/3/215 Central Bank Rate Current Prior Date Current Prior Date FED Fund Apr-15 Canada (BOC) Apr-15 Europe (ECB) Apr-15 Japan (BOJ) Apr-15 UK (BOE) Apr-15 Malaysia May-15 Australia (RBA) Apr-15 Taiwan New Zealand (RBNZ) Apr-15 Indonesia Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated 19 Mar 215 before 9: am Terminology: Support level: Is the currency level where it tends to find support as it is going down i.e. market participants tend to see value at these levels and price is more likely to bounce up than go lower. Resistance level: Is the currency level where it tends to find resistance as it is going up i.e. market participants tend to consider this as a ceiling and prevent prices from going up further. *Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The scale is - 1 and typically overbought conditions are indicated by readings >7 and oversold conditions when <. Moving average: Is an indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a currency s price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or noise, that can confuse interpretation. This information is only for a reference and does not represent recommendation from HSBC for customer to buy or sell based on the information provided.customer should not rely on the views or information expressed in this document solely to make investment decisions. HSBC shall not be held liable for damages arising out of any person s reliance upon this information. Customer should make his/her buy and sell decision based on his/her own view. Also, past performance is not indicative of future performance. Disclaimer The information shown in this document is neither a recommendation, an offer, nor a solicitation for any investment product or service. The information contained in this document has not been reviewed in the light of your personal financial circumstances. Investors should carefully consider whether any investment products or services are appropriate for them in view of their investment experience, objectives, financial resources and relevant circumstances. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, the Bank makes no guarantee, representation or warranty to its accuracy or completeness, and under no circumstances will the Bank be liable for any loss caused by reliance on any opinion or statement made in this document. Except as specifically indicated, the expressions of opinion are those of the Bank only and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information in this document is derived from third party sources as specified at the relevant places where such information is set out. The Bank believes such information to be reliable but it has not independently verified. This material is only intended for branch display and may not be reproduced or further distributed. Please contact our branch staff for details. Issued by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited