Daily FX Focus. AUD rose prior to RBA rate decision. AUDUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be May Unemployment Rate.
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1 2/5/217 Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation and investment experience. Investment involves risk. Loss may be incurred as well as profits made as a result of buying and selling investment products. Currency conversion risk - the value of your foreign currency and RMB deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and RMB deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and RMB, you may suffer loss in principal. RMB is currently not freely convertible and subject to regulatory restrictions (which might be changed from time to time). FX Focus:AUD/USD AUD rose prior to RBA rate decision. AUDUSD once touched.7539 levels. The upcoming release will be May Unemployment Rate. Currency AUD EUR GBP Current Trend Support / Resistance vs USD vs USD / / 1.74 Market commentary vs USD.7437 /.761 AUD rose prior to RBA rate decision. AUDUSD once touched.7539 levels. The upcoming release will be May Unemployment Rate. Eurozone April inflation rate rose 1.9% YoY, higer than expected. EURUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be March Unemployment Rate. The UK Q1 GDP rose 2.1% YoY, lower than expected. GBPUSD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be May Retail Sales. NZD vs USD.6815 /.723 RMB CAD JPY CHF SGD * Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 2-days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 5-day moving average, can be used if needed. vs USD / vs USD / Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the USD Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the USD New Zealand March Trade deficit was lower than expected. NZDUSD once touched.6923 levels. The upcoming release will be May central bank rate decision. Mainland Official Manufacturing PMI was USDCNH traded within the range of The upcoming release will be May CPI. vs USD / WTI oil price dropped. USDCAD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be April Unemployment Rate. vs USD 19. / The US fiscal cliff pressure decreased. USDJPY once touched levels. The upcoming release will be 1Q GDP. vs USD.9848 / 1.81 April KOF Indicator was 16, lower than expected. USDCHF once touched.9965 levels. The upcoming release will be April Unemployment Rate. The US March PCE dropped.1% MoM, which was the first MoM decrease since 21 September. USDSGD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Q1 GDP.
2 2/5/217 AUD Australia remained April target cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. AUD rose prior to RBA rate decision. AUDUSD once touched.7539 levels. The upcoming release will be May Unemployment Rate. 2-May Daily change:.56%.56% (+) Australia Q4 GDP rose 2.4% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.9% in previous quarter High (~) Australia Q1 CPI rose.5% YoY, same as pervious quarter Low (~) Australia March unemployment rate arrived at 5.9%, same as pervious month Support* (-) Australia April Commodity Price Index arrived at 38.6%, lower than 46.8% in previous month Resistance* AUD/SGD 6-month Chart AUD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.9 9 AUD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI EUR Eurozone April inflation rate rose 1.9% YoY, higer than expected. EURUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be March Unemployment Rate. 2-May Daily change:.5%.5% (+) Germany Q4 GDP rose.4% QoQ, higher than an increase of.1% in previous quarter High (+) Eurozone April CPI rose 1.9% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.5% in previous month Low (-) Germany April manufacturing PMI arrived at 58.2, lower than 58.3 in previous month Support* (+) Germany April Business Climate arrived at 112.9, higher than in previous month Resistance* EUR/SGD 6-month Chart EUR/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average EUR/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI
3 2/5/217 GBP Bank of England maintained March benchmark interest rate at.25% as expected. The UK Q1 GDP rose 2.1% YoY, lower than expected. GBPUSD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be May Retail Sales. 2-May (+) UK Q1 GDP advance result rose 2.1% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.9% in previous quarter's final Daily change: -.45% -.45% value High (-) UK March CPI rose.4% YoY, lower than an increase of.7% in previous month Low (~) UK ILO February's 3Mths unemployment rate was at 4.7%, same as pervious month Support* (-) UK April Nationwide House Prices All Houses rose 2.6% YoY, lower than an increase of 3.5% in previous Resistance* month GBP/SGD 6-month Chart GBP/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average GBP/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI NZD RBNZ remained Official Cash Rate unchanged in March. New Zealand March Trade deficit was lower than expected. NZDUSD once touched.6923 levels. The upcoming release will be May central bank rate decision. 2-May Daily change:.58%.58% (-) New Zealand Q4 GDP rose 2.7% YoY, lower than an increase of 3.3% in previous quarter High (+) New Zealand Q1 CPI rose 2.2% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.3% in previous quarter Low (-) New Zealand Q4 unemployment rate arrived at 5.2%, higher than 4.9% in previous quarter Support* (-) New Zealand March Commodity Price Index arrived at.4%, lower than 2% in previous month Resistance* NZD/SGD 6-month Chart NZD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.85 9 NZD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI
4 2/5/217 RMB The Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang said that China's economy will grow at medium to high speed towards medium to high end in the long run. RMB will stabilize at reasonable level. Mainland Official Manufacturing PMI was USDCNH traded within the range of The upcoming release will be May CPI. 2-May Daily change:.%.% (+) China Q1 GDP rose 6.9% YoY, higher than an increase of 6.8% in previous quarter High (+) China March CPI rose.9% YoY, higher than an increase of.8% in previous month Low (-) China March Caixin manufacturing PMI arrived at 51.2, lower than 51.7 in previous month Support* (+) China March industrial production rose 7.6% YoY, higher than an increase of 6% in previous month Resistance* RMB/SGD 6-month Chart RMB/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average RMB/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI CAD WTI oil price dropped. USDCAD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be April Unemployment Rate. ` 2-May (+) Canada February GDP rose 2.5% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.3% in previous month Daily change: -.19% -.19% (-) Canada March CPI rose 1.6% YoY, lower than an increase of 2% in previous month High (-) Canada March unemployment rate arrived at 6.7%, higher than 6.6% in previous month Low (+) Canada April Manufacturing PMI arrived at 55.9, higher than 55.5 in previous month Support* Resistance* CAD/SGD 6-month Chart CAD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average CAD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI
5 2/5/217 JPY The US fiscal cliff pressure decreased. USDJPY once touched levels. The upcoming release will be 1Q GDP. 2-May Daily change: -.24% -.24% (+) Japan Q4 GDP rose 1.6% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.1% in previous quarter High (-) Japan March CPI nationwide ex fresh food rose.2% YoY, lower than an increase of.3% in previous month Low (+) Japan April manufacturing PMI arrived at 52.7, higher than 52.4 in previous month Support* (~) Japan March Industrial Production fell 2.1% MoM, same as pervious month Resistance* JPY/SGD 6-month Chart JPY/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average JPY/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 9 CHF Swiss Government raised this year s inflation forecast to.5%. April KOF Indicator was 16, lower than expected. USDCHF once touched.9965 levels. The upcoming release will be April Unemployment Rate. ` 2-May (-) Switzerland Q4 GDP rose.6% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.4% in previous quarter Daily change: -.9% -.9% (~) Switzerland March CPI rose.6% YoY, same as pervious month High (~) Switzerland March unemployment rate arrived at 3.3%, same as pervious month Low (+) Switzerland March Foreign Currency Reserves arrived at CHF billion, higher than CHF billion Support* in previous month Resistance* CHF/SGD 6-month Chart CHF/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average CHF/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI
6 2/5/217 SGD The Managing Director of Monetary Authority of Singapore, Ravi Menon, said that Singapore is expected to continue a modest pace of expansion, with forecasting growth of 1 % to 3 % for this year. The US March PCE dropped.1% MoM, which was the first MoM decrease since 21 September. USDSGD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Q1 GDP. Tehnical Analysis vs USD 2-May 1.4 (-) Singapore Q1 GDP advance result rose 2.5% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.9% in previous quarter's Daily change:.% final value High 1.4 (~) Singapore March CPI rose.7% YoY, same as pervious month Low 1.39 (-) Singapore Q1 unemployment rate arrived at 2.3%, higher than 2.2% in previous quarter Support* 1.39 (-) Singapore March Non Oil Domestic Exports rose 16.5% YoY, lower than an increase of 21.1% in previous Resistance* 1.4 month USD/SGD 6-month Chart USD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average USD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 9
7 2/5/217 Important Economic Data Release Source: Bloomberg as of May 2, 217 Reporting period Analysts Consensus Date Events Previous Actual United States 1-May-17 Construction Spending MoM Apr.4% -.2% -.2% 1-May-17 ISM Manufacturing* May May-17 ISM Prices Paid May May-17 Personal Spending* Apr.2% % % 1-May-17 Personal Income* Apr.%.2%.2% 3-May-17 ADP Employment Change Apr 175K 263.5K - 3-May-17 MBA Mortgage Applications* Weekly 2.7% - 3-May-17 ISM Non-Manf. Composite Apr May-17 Durable Goods Orders* Apr.7%.7% - 4-May-17 Durables Ex Transportation Apr -.2% - 4-May-17 Initial Jobless Claims* Weekly 248K 257K - 4-May-17 Continuing Claims Weekly 199K 1988K - 4-May-17 Nonfarm Productivity Qtrly -.1% 1.% - 4-May-17 Factory Orders* Mar.4% 1% - 4-May-17 Trade Balance* Mar -44.5B B - 5-May-17 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls* Apr 19K 98K - 5-May-17 Change in Manufact. Payrolls Apr 1K 11K - 5-May-17 Unemployment Rate* Apr 4.% 4.5% - 6-May-17 Consumer Credit Mar 14B 15.26B - Regional 2-May-17 Australia RBA Cash Target* 1.5% 1.5% - 3-May-17 Australia AiG Performance of Service Index Apr May-17 New Zealand Employment Changge (QoQ) Qtrly.8%.8% - 4-May-17 Australia Trade Balance* Mar 325M 3574M - 5-May-17 Hong Kong Retail Sales - Value (YoY) Mar -.9% -5.7% - G7 Countries 2-May-17 France PMI Manufacturing* May May-17 Germany PMI Manufacturing May May-17 Italy PMI Manufacturing Apr May-17 UK PMI Manufacturing Apr May-17 Germany Unemployment Change ('s)* Apr -11K -K - 3-May-17 Germany Unemployment Rate (s.a.) Apr 5.8% 5.8% - 4-May-17 France PMI Services May May-17 Germany PMI Services May May-17 UK Mortgage Approvals Mar 67.2K K - 4-May-17 UK PMI Services Apr May-17 Canada Ivey Purchasing Manager Index Apr May-17 Canada Net Change in Employment Apr 1K 19.4K -
8 2/5/217 Central Bank Rate Current Prior Date Current Prior Date FED Fund May-17 Canada (BOC) May-17 Europe (ECB).. 8-Jun-17 Japan (BOJ) Jun-17 UK (BOE) May-17 Malaysia May-17 Australia (RBA) May-17 Taiwan New Zealand (RBNZ) May-17 Indonesia Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated 2 May 217 before 9: am Terminology: Support level: Is the currency level where it tends to find support as it is going down i.e. market participants tend to see value at these levels and price is more likely to bounce up than go lower. Resistance level: Is the currency level where it tends to find resistance as it is going up i.e. market participants tend to consider this as a ceiling and prevent prices from going up further. *Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The scale is - 1 and typically overbought conditions are indicated by readings >7 and oversold conditions when <. Moving average: Is an indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a currency s price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or noise, that can confuse interpretation. This information is only for a reference and does not represent recommendation from HSBC for customer to buy or sell based on the information provided.customer should not rely on the views or information expressed in this document solely to make investment decisions. HSBC shall not be held liable for damages arising out of any person s reliance upon this information. Customer should make his/her buy and sell decision based on his/her own view. Also, past performance is not indicative of future performance. Disclaimer The information shown in this document is neither a recommendation, an offer, nor a solicitation for any investment product or service. The information contained in this document has not been reviewed in the light of your personal financial circumstances. Investors should carefully consider whether any investment products or services are appropriate for them in view of their investment experience, objectives, financial resources and relevant circumstances. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, the Bank makes no guarantee, representation or warranty to its accuracy or completeness, and under no circumstances will the Bank be liable for any loss caused by reliance on any opinion or statement made in this document. Except as specifically indicated, the expressions of opinion are those of the Bank only and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information in this document is derived from third party sources as specified at the relevant places where such information is set out. The Bank believes such information to be reliable but it has not independently verified. This document is distributed by HSBC Bank (Singapore) Limited ( HBSP ) pursuant to Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations, to its customers for general reference only. HBSP accepts legal responsibility for the contents of this document, and may be contacted in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Please refer to HBSP s website at for its contact details. This document is prepared by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited ( HBAP ), 1 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. HBAP is incorporated in Hong Kong and is part of the HSBC Group.
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