fx strategy Continue to watch US data and Fed comments fx 15 August 2016 This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

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1 fx strategy fx 15 August 2016 This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group Continue to watch US data and Fed comments USD strength failed to follow through from last week as weaker US retail sales and wholesale price data coupled with more cautious Fedspeak. As a result, the USD fell back in consolidation. We believe the Fed s sensitivity to incoming data remains the key compass for currency markets. A significantly higher probability of a Fed rate hike in 2016 is likely need for renewed USD gains. At present, we prefer to remain neutral across many major pairs as these are at important technical levels that could potentially signal a reverse in their recent trends. Tactically, we prefer to remain short GBP/USD and long USD/SGD as risk-reward still appears attractive. In the week ahead, we look for further communication from the Fed (FOMC minutes and Fed-speak). Key US data likely to be watched include housing starts and CPI. UK and Australian labour market data are also likely to impact sentiment on GBP and AUD respectively. Pairs Outlook (2-4 wk) Summary comments Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2 EUR/USD Sideways consolidation to continue for now USD/JPY Brief period of consolidation likely ahead of key 100 level AUD/USD Key resistance could provide room for consolidation USD/SGD Bullish The pair may have based. Immediate resistance around GBP/USD Bearish Recent weakness has brought key support at into focus XAU/USD Bullish Gold continues to hold above major moving averages NZD/USD Failure to break lower following easing suggests a cautious stance EUR/GBP Bullish Narrowing rate differentials likely to support further gains USD/CNH Consolidation likely to extend, break above needed USD/CHF Consolidation to continue, SNB to limit significant CHF appreciation USD/CAD Oil price gains likely needed to support CAD bearish bias AUD/NZD Rejection of key resistance may limit immediate upside Darker shade indicates more important technical levels This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. This document is provided for general circulation and information purposes only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, needs or financial situation of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared as investment advice for such person(s). Person includes a corporation, cooperative society, trade union, sole proprietorship, partnership, limited liability partnership and any other business entity. Prospective investors should seek advice from a financial adviser on the suitability of an investment, taking into account these factors before making a commitment to invest in an investment. 1

2 Contents Continue to watch US data and Fed comments 1 12 month outlook week outlook 3 FX trade ideas 3 Week in Review 4 EUR/USD 5 USD/JPY 6 AUD/USD 7 USD/SGD 8 GBP/USD 9 XAU/USD 10 NZD/USD 11 Interest Rate Differentials 15 FX Implied Volatility 16 Consensus forecasts 17 Disclosure Appendix 19 Steve Brice Clive McDonnell Manpreet Gill Adi Monappa, CFA Audrey Goh, CFA Arun Kelshiker, CFA Rajat Bhattacharya Victor Teo, CFA Tariq Ali, CFA Abhilash Narayan Trang Nguyen Chief Investment Strategist Head, Equity Investment Strategy Head, FICC Investment Strategy Head, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions Director, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions Executive Director, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions Investment Strategist Investment Strategist Investment Strategist Investment Strategist Analyst, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 2

3 12 month outlook 2-4 week outlook Currency EUR JPY GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF CNY TWD KRW SGD MYR IDR INR THB PHP Bullish Bearish Please see the latest Global Market Outlook for more details 12 month Pairs EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/SGD GBP/USD XAU/USD NZD/USD EUR/GBP USD/CNH USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/NZD FX trade ideas Outlook (2-4 wk) Bullish Bearish Bullish Bullish Entry Current Initiation date Pairs Position price price Target Stop 1/8/2016 USD/SGD Long /7/2016 GBP/USD Short Please see the corresponding FX trade note for more details on each trade idea This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 3

4 Week in Review Weekly performance of core pairs 5 Aug 2016 to 12 August 2016 EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/SGD GBP/USD XAU/USD NZD/USD 0.00 Weekly performance of supplementary pairs 5 Aug 2016 to 12 August 2016 EUR/GBP Pairs EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/SGD Week in Review EUR/USD ended up (0.69). The EUR failed to maintain downside following the stronger US job numbers. The EUR gained strongly following the weaker US retail sales data. Euro area flash GDP, though, was in-line with consensus. USD/JPY ended down (-0.51).The JPY remained strong through the week as global bonds rallied and the USD fell. Data showing US wholesale prices falling by most in a year reduced expectations of 2016 Fed rate hikes. AUD/USD ended up (0.43). The AUD remained strong amid a weaker USD, even as the RBA cut interest rates. China data was modestly weaker than expected though iron-ore prices continued to edge higher. USD/SGD ended down (-0.13). The pair traded lower as Asia-ex- Japan currencies gained ground against the USD. The weaker China data was likely overshadowed by falling Fed rate hike expectations. USD/CNH USD/CHF GBP/USD GBP/USD was down (-1.17). The sell-off in the GBP continues following BOE easing amid a new string of data showing further deterioration in the UK economic outlook. USD/CAD AUD/NZD XAU/USD NZD/USD XAU/USD was flat. Gold was supported as US Treasury yields fell through the week, though gains were likely kept in check as investor sentiment remained buoyant, reducing safe haven demand. NZD/USD was up (0.74). The pair gained as the RBNZ rate cut was largely expected while there was disappointment on guidance for additional rate cuts. This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 4

5 EUR/USD We remain neutral given balanced technical indicators and mixed fundamental outlook Fundamental Overview The US Fed policy remains the most important factor for additional EUR weakness. So far the Fed has been cautious without a clear timeline for rate hikes amid mixed US data. Interest rate differentials with the US remain flat, even as the ECB adopted negative rates. Additionally, little visible post Brexit impact in economic data also appears to have kept EUR downside in check. Technical Analysis The pair largely remains in consolidation. On the upside, a convincing breach of (lower end of the previous price channel) is needed as an indication of a deeper rally. On the downside, a break below would open up room to test the region. In the interim, we believe, the consolidation phase is likely to develop further. Sideways consolidation to continue for now EUR/USD Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jul-16 EUR/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Key technical indicators* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action Buy Buy Key Levels Level Importance Resistance High Resistance Medium Spot Support Medium Support High Key Signposts FOMC minutes Euro area CPI inflation ECB meeting minutes 17 Aug 18 Aug 18 Aug * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 5

6 USD/JPY We remain neutral ahead of the important 100 support level Fundamental Overview The BoJ s unconvincing policy action has failed to drive further JPY weakness. The next BoJ statement and the extent of new policy easing measures remain in focus, though the Fed s policy response is likely to be a more important driver going forward. Last week s US data and Fed-speak suggested the Fed may be in no hurry to tighten policy yet. Technical Analysis The pair s earlier rejection of the key resistance level suggests the medium-term downward trend in the pair remains intact. However, a break below key support of is needed in the short term to signal further downside. On the topside, the pair is likely to face initial resistance at , but a break of is needed for a trend reversal. Brief period of consolidation likely ahead of key 100 level USD/JPY Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jun-16 USD/JPY 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Key technical indicators* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action Key Levels Level Importance Resistance High Resistance Medium Spot Support High Support High Key Signposts FOMC minutes Aug 17 Japan exports Aug 18 * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 6

7 AUD/USD We remain neutral and believe sideways consolidation can continue ahead of key resistance Fundamental Overview The AUD has been supported recently by firm iron-ore prices and falling financial market volatility. At the same time however, we do not believe risks to further downside have been eliminated from a medium term perspective. Our view of limited upside in commodity prices and a Fed rate hike this year do not auger well for persistent AUD strength. Technical Analysis While the AUD/USD has adopted a bullish tone following the breach of top, the next key resistance region at has come into focus. This region includes the 2013 downtrend line, the April high and the 76.4 retracement from the May 15 peak. Hence, only a convincing breach supported by strong price momentum can effectively signal a secular bullish trend. Key resistance could provide room for consolidation AUD/USD Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 AUD/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Key technical indicators* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action Buy Buy Key Levels Level Importance Resistance High Resistance Medium Spot Support Medium Support Medium Key Signposts Australia Employment change and unemployment rate Aug 18 * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 7

8 USD/SGD We remain bullish amid likely USD gains as the pair stays above key support. Fundamental Overview The USD outlook remains key for the USD/SGD pair. We believe the short-term extension of USD strength against regional currencies (especially USD/SGD) can continue following the release of reasonably robust US labour market data, which is likely to further support the USD as higher chances of a Fed rate hike this year continue to be priced in. Technical Analysis The USD/SGD has struggled to bounce, though downside has been firmly limited to the region. Only a breach of (June low) can open up additional downside possibilities, we believe. In the near-term, we believe, upside could be limited to Technical indicators remain directionless, which further supports our overall neutral stance. The pair may have based. Immediate resistance around USD/SGD Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 USD/SGD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Bullish Key technical indicators* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action Key Levels Level Importance Resistance High Resistance Medium Spot Support Medium Support High Key Signposts Singapore exports Aug 17 FOMC minutes Aug 17 * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 8

9 GBP/USD We remain bearish, expecting further weakness post-boe rate cuts. Support at is key. Fundamental Overview Outlook for the GBP following recent policy easing now rests on the state of economic data post Brexit. Data so far indicates considerable adverse impact across all major indicators. A reversal in the GBP is only likely once the economic uncertainty reduces and the BOE signals an end to additional policy easing, both of which are unlikely in the short-term. Technical Analysis The recent decline in the pair has brought the pair closer to the critical post-brexit low at A breach from here could imply a much deeper pull-back towards Hence, there is a possibility of consolidation at these levels. On the top-side is likely to offer some resistance, a breach of which is needed to signal an end to the recent downturn. Recent weakness has brought key support at into focus GBP/USD Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jul-16 GBP/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Bearish Key technical indicators* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action Key Levels Level Importance Resistance High Resistance Medium Spot Support High Support High Key Signposts UK core CPI Aug 16 UK employment data Aug 17 * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 9

10 XAU/USD We remain bullish and believe dips could continue to offer buying opportunities. Fundamental Overview Recent cuts by both the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia have added to the existing low rate environment globally. With lacklustre US data and possibility of further delays in Fed rate hikes, the environment remains fundamentally supportive for non-yielding gold. Technical Analysis The brief pullback has selectively softened some technical indicators. However, prices stayed above the 50DMA despite the fall following US labour market data, suggesting the bullish bias above the 1,310-1,330 support region remains intact. We are happy to buy on dips and believe a move towards the next major resistance region at 1,365 remains likely. Gold continues to hold above major moving averages XAU/USD 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,330 1,365 1,000 Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 XAU/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Bullish Key technical indicators and forecast* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action Buy Key Levels Level Importance Resistance High Resistance Medium Spot 1339 Support Medium Support High Key Signposts US unit labour costs Aug 9 US retail sales Aug 12 * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 10

11 NZD/USD We turn neutral (from bearish) as technicals remain constructive despite recent policy easing Fundamental Overview The NZD performance has been better than we expected, largely due to a more favourable global backdrop. Firmer commodity prices and low financial market volatility have made higher yielding currencies more attractive. Over the medium term, continued suppression in spreads due to both further RBNZ easing and Fed tightening should put pressure on the NZD. Technical Analysis The pair failed to breach key resistance around 0.731, though has continued to remain above key moving averages. A convincing breach of this region is needed to signal a deeper rally. A quick reversal from here could signal continued consolidation; we would need to see a breach of to expect further downside. Failure to break lower following easing suggests a cautious stance NZD/USD Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 NZD/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Key technical indicators and forecast* Technical Indicator RSI (14) Oscillator (5,10) MACD (12,26,9) ADX (14) Momentum (14) Action Key Levels Level Importance Resistance Medium Resistance High Spot Support Medium Support Medium Key Signposts New Zealand employment data 16 Aug * Please see Appendix for explanation on technical This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 11

12 SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS Narrowing rate differentials likely to support further gains View EUR/GBP Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 EUR/GBP 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Bullish Breach of June highs suggests the rally has further legs GBP weakness following easing BoE policy is likely to support the pair as rate differentials narrow. Consolidation likely to extend, break above needed View USD/CNH Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jun-16 USD/CNH 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA We look for a break above as an indication of renewed uptrend The pair s rebound from the 50DMA and mixed Chinese economic data suggests the period of consolidation could continue. This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 12

13 SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS (cont d) Consolidation to continue, SNB to limit significant CHF appreciation View 1.04 USD/CHF Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jun-16 USD/CHF 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA We expect continued sideways movements around a broad range. The soft peg to the EUR and SNB intervention to limit currency strength is likely to persist. Oil price gains likely needed to support CAD bearish bias View USD/CAD Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 USD/CAD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA Near-term consolidation likely to continue. Price action remains largely sideways with a slight bullish bias. Oil prices remain key. Recent weakness has been a drag on the pair, but we expect prices to gradually recover. This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 13

14 SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS (cont d) Rejection of key resistance may limit immediate upside View 1.15 AUD/NZD Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jun-16 AUD/NZD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA We turn neutral (from bullish) following rejection of key resistance. Recent impulsive bearish reversal signals consolidation. At present there is little clarity from both the RBNZ and the RBA on additional rate cuts. We prefer to remain on the sidelines. This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 14

15 Interest Rate Differentials EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 EUR-USD 2 year interest rate differential EUR/USD (RHS) EUR/USD Aug-13 May-14 Feb-15 Nov-15 Aug-16 USD-JPY 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS) USD/JPY USD/JPY Aug-13 May-14 Feb-15 Nov-15 Aug-16 AUD-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS) AUD/USD (RHS) AUD/USD GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 GBP-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS) GBP/USD (RHS) Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 NZD-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS) NZD/USD (RHS) Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 USD-CAD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS) USD/CAD (RHS) This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 15

16 FX Implied Volatility EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD Aug-13 May-14 Feb-15 Nov-15 Aug-16 EUR 1M implied vol Aug-13 May-14 Feb-15 Nov-15 Aug-16 JPY 1M implied vol Aug-13 May-14 Feb-15 Nov-15 Aug-16 AUD 1M implied vol GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 GBP 1M implied vol Aug-13 May-14 Feb-15 Nov-15 Aug-16 NZD 1M implied vol Aug-13 May-14 Feb-15 Nov-15 Aug-16 CAD 1M implied vol This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 16

17 Consensus forecasts Consensus Forecasts Spot Q Q Q Q EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/SGD GBP/USD USD/CAD USD/CHF This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 17

18 TECHNICAL INDICATORS EXPLANATORY APPENDIX RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI indicators can be used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. An RSI above 70 can indicate a currency pair is overbought while an RSI below 30 can indicate the pair is oversold. Stochastic Oscillator The Stochastic Oscillator compares where a security's price closed relative to its trading range over a given time period. The security or index is generally considered oversold when the Oscillator falls to 20, while a reading of 80 is considered overbought. MACD (The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) This indicator shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A bearish signal is provided when the main moving average line drops below the second moving average line, and vice versa. ADX (Average Directional Index) This indicator quantifies a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. An index rising above zero provides a bullish signal while an index falling below zero provides a bearish signal. Momentum Indicator The momentum of a security is the ratio of today's price compared to the price at a given point in the past. If the security's price is higher today, the momentum indicator will be considered strong. If the security's price is lower today, the momentum Indicator will be weak. This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 18

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