DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT MA S-TERM. 27 June, 2012 L-TERM STRATEGY/ POSITION ENTRY LEVEL OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS MULTI-WEEK

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1 MA S-TERM MULTI-DAY Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer. L-TERM OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP MULTI-WEEK STRATEGY/ POSITION ENTRY LEVEL EUR/USD SHORT / (Entered 18/06/2012) GBP/USD Sell limit /1.5400/ USD/JPY Negative bias remains, await fresh signal. Bijoy Kar, CFA Senior Analyst USD/CHF LONG / (Entered 15/06/2012) USD/CAD LONG /1.0700/ (Entered 22/06/2012) AUD/USD SHORT / (Entered 20/06/2012) GBP/JPY Sell limit /120.00/ EUR/JPY Sell limit /95.50/ Cedric Poretti Junior Analyst EUR/GBP Missed sell. Look to sell higher. EUR/CHF Stand Aside. GOLD LONG /1700/1790 (Entered 22/06/2012) 1540 FINALIST BEST FX RESEARCH & STRATEGY DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report SILVER LONG /30.00/31.50 (Entered 21/06/2012) Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. MIG BANK / Forex Broker 4,avenue d Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland Tel Fax info@migbank.com

2 EUR/USD EUR/USD Resistance expected close to / EUR/USD appears to be in a short term squeeze higher, with resistance expected close to and Should these moves take place, or, if an earlier break under (26 June low) can be achieved, then a substantial extension lower would be expected, targeting the region once again. The USD Index also appears strong in the short-term timeframe. However, we need to see a break over (8 June high) to open up a full retrace to This remains our central scenario, with a sustained push over this level then warning of a substantial extension higher. EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Failure to hold under will likely target the region at which point our bearish bias will be neutralised. Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months. Media Interview: Bloomberg USD Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Short 2 at , Objs: /1.1650, Stop:

3 GBP/USD Further short-term strength possible. GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP GBP/USD continues to behave eratically consistent with its largely rangebound longer-term direction. Broken support at capping. Short-term structure suggests scope for a further squeeze higher to retest and break over However, the region, close to the 61.8% retrace of the fall, is anticipated to yield a degree of supply/resistance should it be tested. GBP/USD has seen an overdue corrective rebound from just ahead of The large devaluation versus the US Dollar has already taken place in the YTD low although early signs of stalling are noted ahead of 2008, so strength in the USD Index is not expected to be as broken support at aggressively exhibited in cable, hence our bearish view in EUR/GBP. GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Sell limit 3 at , Objs: /1.5400/1.5200, Stop:

4 USD/JPY Under will weaken further. USD/JPY has eased off slightly from the recent rebound which is still viewed as corrective. The medium-term structure is still deemed negative. In a similar manner to our reasoning in cable, there is not a large scope for downside in this pair, although a return to is still deemed possible. With this in mind, a break under is sought before strategy formulation. Failure to form a lower high will suggest the formation of an inverted head and shoulders set-up in the daily timeframe and a return to strength. USD/JPY daily, Bloomberg Finance LP USD/JPY hourly, Bloomberg Finance LP Awaiting Negative renewed bias remains, buy trade await setup. fresh signal. 4

5 USD/CHF Over to strengthen further. First objective met, stop moved to entry. USD/CHF continues to grind higher reaching our first target at , yesterday, reaching We now seek a further push over (8 June high) to confirm as a higher low. A shallow retrace is now anticipated with support likely near and then close to The bigger picture remains supported by a strongly bullish structure present since / USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP An eventual break over is anticipated. Should this materialise, there would then be scope for a substantial further extension higher. Longer-term the break over both the 200 day and 50 week moving averages favours a stronger recovery higher towards / USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Long 2 at , Objs:1.0000/1.0500, Stop:

6 USD/CAD Over to strengthen the near-term outlook. USD/CAD has now completed a falling wedge formation in the hourly timeframe, suggesting an end to the corrective phase off In line with our general view in the US Dollar index, we now seek a push back over (8 June high) to strengthen the near-term outlook. An eventual return to the October 2011 high at is anticipated over coming weeks. USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Meanwhile, only a decisive break back beneath would weaken the evolving bullish scenario. USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Long 3 at , Objs: /1.0700/1.1000, Stop: Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, b.kar@migbank.com, Phone:

7 AUD/USD Current rise seen as a short-term corrective phase. AUD/USD appears to be in the midst of a short-term corrective phase, after meeting demand at In order to consider as a lower high we will need to see a sustained break under (8 June low). The downtrend that was initiated at is expected to continue, targeting lower levels, beneath This is favoured by the daily structure, however, it is noted that a push back over will weaken our view in favour of a neutral/bullish stance. AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Also noted, from a much longer term perspective, is a diamond top in the weekly timeframe. However, a break under is required to trigger this formation. AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Short 2 at , Objs: /0.9300, Stop:

8 GBP/JPY Upside limited to the region. GBP/JPY has initiated a further leg higher in its corrective phase from , after breaking over There remains scope for a further swing higher to complete the corrective phase, before a resumption of weakness is anticipated. An earlier break under will suggest a resumption of weakness. An hourly rising wedge is now forming warning of a degree of exhaustion. However, a final push to the region remains viable. GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Sell limit 3 at , Objs: /120.00/117.00, Stop:

9 EUR/JPY Lower high sought for fresh weakness. EUR/JPY may have completed its corrective phase from the low at the beginning of June. Scope is now seen for the formation of a lower high near the level, for the continuation of weakness from We would need to see the re-capture of to suggest that a major low has formed, setting the stage for a return to initially as the decline is retraced. In the meantime the bias remains negative, due to our individual views on USD/JPY and EUR/USD. EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Sell limit 3 at , Objs: 99.05/95.50/90.00, Stop:

10 EUR/GBP Bias remains negative. Better trade location sought. EUR/GBP has fallen beneath the 12 June low at However, in doing so a failure to gain momentum warns of low participation. Although our bias remains negative higher levels and a better short-term outlook are sought, ahead of trade formulation. With short-term structure being unusually messy it is deemed better to either wait for a break under , or to sell into strength. In a market that appears to lack momentum, a degree of value must be sought. EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Missed sell. Look to sell higher. 10

11 EUR/CHF Remains in a tight range above EUR/CHF continues to trade sideways being supported by the SNB. While we could see further corrective activity over the short-term the overall tone remains negative after breach of the February swing low at and while caps we see risk of an attack on retracement support at initially as the major downtrend extends. Settlement above from here would suggest basing potential, while re-capture of would confirm a base pattern calling for a return to broken support at initially. EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP S-T TREND L-T TREND Stand aside. 11

12 GOLD Short-term corrective phase may yield a squeeze higher. Gold appears to be within the midst of a short-term corrective phase, with scope for a squeeze higher to re-test the lower high. We also note the formation of a large daily triangular consolidation pattern, with the level acting as a base. This increases the importance of this level, if broken to the downside. With this in mind, we will look for a return to strength while above the low. Back under this level will turn the outlook decidedly bearish. Gold daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Long 3 at 1560, Objs: 1620/1700/1790, Stop: 1540 Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, b.kar@migbank.com, Phone:

13 SILVER Rangebound for the last week. Silver is once again approaching the level from where a recovery is anticipated. A break under this level would not be anticipated to be long lasting in nature, targeting the level. The level remains key to future short-term gains. Failure to hold onto the initial signs of momentum seen over recent days now exposes the recent low at again. Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Silver hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Exited Long 3 at at , Objs: 28.50/30.00/31.50, Stop: Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, b.kar@migbank.com, Phone:

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15 CONTACT Bjioy Kar Senior Analyst MIG BANK 4, avenue d Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Tel