Forex, Bonds & Commodities

Transcription

1 Gold : Sell-Off Expected Forex, Bonds & Commodities Technical Outlook 2010 Third Quarter Enrico Chiabudini Pictet & Cie, Pictet Trading Room Strategy Route des Acacias, 60 - CH-1211 Geneva 73, Switzerland Tel: Please see important disclosure information at the end of this message.

2 Table of contents 1. Currencies p Bonds p Commodities p Energy p Grains p Industrials p Precious Metals p Soft Commodities p

3 Table of contents CURRENCIES <- Back to Menu 3

4 CURRENCIES : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN USD INDEX EUR/USD USD/CHF USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CAD USD/BRL EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF 2010 YTD 10.48% % 4.08% -4.93% -7.57% 1.02% 3.45% -7.68% % % % 2.51% -3.13% 2.63% 10.81% % % -7.11% 5.13% -0.63% % -4.24% -5.72% % % 22.08% 30.03% 29.92% % -9.72% % 10.53% -6.97% -6.45% 1.32% % % 9.02% 3.51% 2.82% % 11.39% -7.19% 1.12% 13.69% 0.32% -8.52% -2.00% 12.65% 3.41% % % 15.18% 14.73% % -3.32% % -2.67% 0.43% 0.61% % 7.72% -8.23% -4.55% 7.46% -7.33% -8.14% 0.33% 2.84% -0.87% % 26.58% % -9.61% 10.82% % % 8.18% 8.33% 7.62% % 11.67% % -9.79% 10.79% -1.33% 53.21% 6.39% 6.34% -1.92% % -5.50% 3.07% 15.19% -2.78% 6.30% 18.49% -2.78% 8.88% -2.81% % -6.43% 1.25% 11.80% -7.54% 3.67% 8.40% 1.22% 4.44% -5.17% % % 15.78% -9.71% -2.20% -5.99% 48.90% % % -0.51% % 6.69% -6.02% % 8.09% 7.59% 8.30% 6.29% -8.21% 0.50% Since % 21.53% % % -7.61% % -7.45% 31.23% 4.97% % Since % 11.40% % % -9.26% % 49.36% 22.86% % % 4

5 CURRENCIES : Q OUTLOOK BLOOMBERG TICKER CURRENCIES CROSS Q3 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK USD INDEX DOLLAR INDEX Negative EUR Curncy EUR / USD Positive CHF Curncy USD / CHF Negative JPY Curncy USD / JPY Neutral GBP Curncy GBP / USD Positive CAD Curncy USD / CAD Positive BRL Curncy USD / BRL Neutral EURGBP Curncy EUR / GBP Neutral EURJPY Curncy EUR / JPY Neutral EURCHF Curncy EUR / CHF Neutral 5

6 DOLLAR INDEX Current Level : Targets : & Major Resistance : The recent two supports combined by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 50days SMA warns for a strong sell off to come. Unfortunately, the stochastic oscillator is confirming this negative scenario. The targets hold at & = targets Very bad Stochastic oscillator 6

7 EUR/USD Current Level : Target : Major Supports : & There are many buying signals on the EUR vs the USD. First of all, the support stood firm as despite a test in May, the price closed well above it at the end of that month. Interesting to not also that the close of May was also above the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Moreover, the candlestick of May represented a hammer which is a bullish pattern itself. Lat but not least, the May s close represents a buying signal regarding the Bollinger bands. In conclusion, the EUR looks mature for a rally. This one should reach at least = target 7

8 USD/CHF Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target Very bad Stochastic oscillator 8

9 USD/JPY N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :

10 GBP/USD Current Level : Targets : , & Major Support: = targets Strong stochastic oscillator 10

11 USD/CAD Current Level : Target : Major Support: = target 11

12 USD/BRL N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support:

13 EUR/GBP N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support : The nice end of June s close should be supportive for the EUR vs the GBP. However, due to the very bad stochastic oscillator, one should not hesitate to short the EUR again if a monthly close below the occurs. Very bad stochastic oscillator 13

14 EUR/JPY N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :

15 EUR/CHF N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support : What to say about EUR/CHF Technically in a no man s land a rebound until is not excluded. However, the still very bad stochastic oscillator would suggest to go short again if a monthly close below occurs. Very bad stochastic oscillator 15

16 Table of contents BONDS <- Back to Menu 16

17 BONDS : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN T-NOTE BUND JGB 2010 YTD 6.15% 6.77% 1.40% % -2.92% -0.30% % 10.37% 2.42% % -2.52% 2.06% % -4.77% -2.40% % 2.74% -0.81% % 4.84% 0.37% % -0.37% -2.96% % 6.32% 2.78% % -1.53% 2.46% % 4.14% 1.57% % % 3.84% % 10.97% -1.46% Since % 24.25% 6.66% Since % 24.02% 9.14% 17

18 BONDS : Q OUTLOOK BLOOMBERG TICKER Q3 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK TY1 COMDTY 10 YEAR US T-NOTE Positive RX1 COMDTY 10 YEAR GERMAN BUND Positive JB1 COMDTY 10 YEAR JAP. GOV. BOND Positive 18

19 10 YEAR US T-NOTE Current Level : Target : Major Support : Since its resistance s breakout, the T-Note should continue to rally, helped by a very strong stochastic oscillator. The target of the T-Note holds at Very strong stochastic oscillator = target 19

20 10 YEAR GERMAN BUND Current Level : Targets : & Major Support : Since the recent and resistances breakout and driven by a positive stochastic oscillator, the Bund should continue its rise until at least Only a monthly close below would cancel this scenario. Positive stochastic = targets 20

21 10 YEAR JAP. GOV. BOND Current Level : Target : Major Supports : Unless a monthly close occurs, the JGB looks ready for another bullish leg until = target 21

22 Table of contents COMMODITIES 22

23 COMMODITIES : Q OUTLOOK BLOOM. TICKER COMMO. NAME Q3 TECHN. OUTLOOK BLOOM. TICKER COMMO. NAME Q3 TECHN. OUTLOOK CRY INDEX CRB INDEX Negative GC1 COMDTY GOLD Negative CL1 COMDTY CRUDE OIL Negative PA1 COMDTY PALLADIUM Negative HO1 COMDTY HEATING OIL Negative PL1 COMDTY PLATINUM Negative NG1 COMDTY NATURAL GAS Neutral SI1 COMDTY SILVER Negative XB1 COMDTY GASOLINE Negative CC1 COMDTY COCOA Neutral C 1 COMDTY CORN Positive KC1 COMDTY COFFEE Neutral O 1 COMDTY OATS Neutral CT1 COMDTY COTTON Negative S 1 COMDTY SOYBEAN Neutral JO1 COMDTY ORANGE JUICE Positive W 1 CMDTY WHEAT Neutral RR1 COMDTY ROUGH RICE Negative LA1 COMDTY ALLUMINIUM Negative SB1 COMDTY SUGAR Negative HG1 COMDTY COPPER (COMEX) Negative LL1 COMDTY LEAD (LME) Neutral LN1 COMDTY NICKEL (LME) Neutral LX1 COMDTY ZINC (LME) Negative 23

24 Table of contents 1. CRB INDEX 24

25 CRB INDEX Current Level : Targets : & Major Resistance : Between middle of last year and the beginning of 2010, the JGB built a diamond pattern which broke in the downside. Of course a sell-off already occurred but the target hasn t been achieved yet. We believe another bearish leg will occur until at least = targets 25

26 Table of contents 2. ENERGY 26

27 ENERGY GROUP : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN CRUDE OIL HEATING OIL NATURAL GAS GASOLINE 2010 YTD -4.70% -6.47% % 0.39% % 50.73% -0.89% % % % % % % 65.49% 18.80% 54.93% % -7.53% % -8.16% % 40.52% 82.55% n.a % 34.73% -0.65% n.a % 5.45% 29.23% n.a % 57.16% 86.34% n.a % % % n.a % 31.33% % n.a % % 19.74% n.a % % % n.a. Since % % 98.20% Unavailable Since % % % Unavailable 27

28 CRUDE OIL Current Level : Target : 66.1 Major Resistance : 78.6 After having tried without success to break its resistance, the Crude Oil went down again. We believe the price will reach soon. = target 28

29 HEATING OIL Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target 29

30 NATURAL GAS N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :

31 GASOLINE Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target 31

32 Table of contents 3. GRAINS 32

33 GRAINS : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN CORN OATS SOYABEAN WHEAT 2010 YTD % -7.94% -8.78% % % 31.90% 6.94% % % % % % % 13.19% 75.42% 76.65% % 38.97% 13.54% 47.57% % 24.80% 9.90% 10.33% % 6.84% % % % % 38.54% 16.00% % 3.07% 35.27% 12.46% % 71.33% % 3.40% % 4.58% 8.18% 12.47% % 3.55% % % % % % % Since % % 89.89% 87.02% Since % 70.28% 41.46% 42.67% 33

34 CORN Current Level : Targets : & Major Support : = targets 34

35 OATS N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :

36 SOYBEAN N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :

37 WHEAT N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :

38 Table of contents 4. INDUSTRIALS 38

39 INDUSTRIAL : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN ALLUMINIUM COPPER LEAD NICKEL ZINC 2010 YTD % % % 6.64% % % % % 58.80% % % % % % % % 6.18% 50.72% % % % 32.04% 57.88% % % % 45.36% 4.08% % 52.71% % 42.57% 40.04% % 23.56% % 49.64% 71.85% % 33.25% % 6.74% % 25.53% -2.36% % % 10.81% % % % -0.70% -6.26% % % % 28.49% -1.12% % 34.29% % % % % % Since % % % % 42.79% Since % % % % 61.58% 39

40 ALUMINIUM Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : Aluminum shows a very bad picture. Pushed by a negative stochastic, and after having tried without success to break its 50days SMA resistance, the price should go down again and reach = target Negative stochastic 40

41 COPPER (Comex) Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target 41

42 LEAD (LME) N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :

43 NICKEL (LME) N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Supports : &

44 ZINC (LME) Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : Zinc shows the worst chart of the industrials. Ok the diamond target has been achieved but we believe the price still under pressure and should be a realizable target. = target 44

45 Table of contents 5. PRECIOUS METALS 45

46 PRECIOUS METALS : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN GOLD PALLADIUM PLATINUM SILVER 2010 YTD 13.66% 9.12% 4.86% 10.99% % % 55.95% 49.26% % % % % % 11.73% 34.15% 15.44% % 29.45% 17.09% 45.33% % 41.16% 12.65% 29.57% % -6.20% 6.46% 14.35% % % 34.23% 24.00% % % 22.60% 4.85% % % % -0.13% % % 41.70% % % 35.24% 18.02% 8.52% % 63.50% -1.75% % Since % -1.07% % % Since % % % % 46

47 GOLD Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target The last quarter of 2009 we showed that Gold had built an Inverted Head and Shoulder, giving an upside potential until At that time, the level was 995. Since, the price considerably appreciated despite the fact that our target hasn t been achieved yet. However, we have to admit that the recent top at , followed by the recent consolidation, and especially the strong negative divergence that appeared on the RSI warn us for a potential strong sell-off. Then, we turn negative, with a target at On the other hand, only a weekly close above would cancel our negative view. 47

48 PALLADIUM Current Level : Targets : & Major Resistance : = targets 48

49 PLATINUM Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target 49

50 SILVER Current Level : 17.7 Target : Major Resistance : 19.8 = target 50

51 Table of contents 6. SOFT COMMODITIES 51

52 SOFT COMMODITIES : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN COCOA COFFEE COTTON ORANGE JUICE ROUGH RICE SUGAR 2010 YTD % 20.78% 9.26% 19.56% % % % 21.33% 54.22% 80.89% -5.05% % % % % % 13.21% 9.15% % 7.92% 21.20% % 33.76% -7.91% % 17.83% 3.69% 60.74% 27.66% % % 3.23% 21.04% 45.41% 10.52% 62.39% % 59.74% % 41.72% % 59.44% % 7.89% 46.74% % % % % 30.30% 43.75% 2.97% 4.34% 2.98% % % % 19.44% % % % % 22.74% % 15.18% 66.67% % 6.92% % % % % % % % 27.25% % % Since % 30.42% 62.79% 66.67% 83.46% % Since % 1.08% 23.15% 85.31% % 47.55% 52

53 COCOA N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :

54 COFFEE N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :

55 COTTON Current Level : Targets : 78.3 & 76.5 Major Resistance : 85.7 = targets 55

56 ORANGE JUICE Current Level : Targets : & Major Support : = targets 56

57 ROUGH RICE Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target 57

58 SUGAR Current Level : 16.7 Target : Major Resistance : = target 58

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