26th International Copper Conference Madrid. Christoph Eibl Chief Executive March 2013

Transcription

1 26th International Copper Conference Madrid Christoph Eibl Chief Executive March 2013

2 Preferences Copper form a Fund Manager s point of view As a strategic investor (i.e. long only) fundamentals rule Deficit and expected deficit Inverted yield, i.e. backwardation Low stock/inventory (LME/non-LME) SHFE/LME arbitrage and stock positioning As a tactical investor sentiment, technical indicators and momentum rule Trend following concepts Algorithmic strategies Investors love backwardation, physical players contango Current forward curve neither attracts nor frightens investors Backwardation incentive for roll yields Copper competes with other base metals/commodities/asset classes 2

3 Metals & Equities Industrial Metals and equity markets seem to be trading 2 different worlds 40% 3

4 Industrial Metals From a market balance perspective, tin and copper have the best fundamental outlook 10% Market balance for industrial metals (as % of total annual demand) 8% Surplus 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% (f'cast) Deficit Zinc Nickel Aluminium Lead Copper Tin 4

5 Correlation Correlation of Copper with Equities, USD and Sub-Indices 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% SPX USD DJUBS Energy DJUBS Metals DJUBS Precious DJUBS Agricultures Correlation to USD is moving towards 0% -40% -60% -80% -100% Copper vs. SPX USD DJUBS Energy DJUBS Metals DJUBS Precious DJUBS Agricultures Correlation 40,8% -12,9% 6,5% 91,3% 52,4% 10,1% 5

6 Correlation Correlation of Copper with Base Metals and Gold 90% 80% Aluminium Nickel 70% Lead 60% 50% Zinc Tin Gold Correlation with Gold is moving up since new year 40% 30% Jun.2012 Jul.2012 Aug.2012 Sep.2012 Okt.2012 Nov.2012 Dez.2012 Jan.2013 Copper vs. Aluminium Nickel Lead Zinc Tin Gold Correlation 80,1% 57,1% 64,6% 73,7% 55,4% 49,3% 6

7 Sector Performance Copper Aluminium Ratio 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 Copper / Aluminium Copper is trading four times higher than aluminium Substitution from copper to aluminium will be constrained due to the superior electrical conductivity properties 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,

8 Volatility Historical Volatility 80% % Average Volatility Copper (3M Forward) 60 Day Volatility Day Volaility is nearing at all-time low 60% 50% Price 3 M Forward 8000 Historic price movements to the upside is indicated by low volatility 40% % % 10% %

9 Long term capital flows Investors have pulled out of commodities lately but Oil speculation $ $ $ Net Long Position Non Commercials in Mio. USD (nom.) Net Long Position Non Commercials, 52-week Average Net Long Position Non Commercials in Mio. USD 2001 prices (real) Net Long Position Non Commercials 2001 prices, 52-week Average Agri speculation $ $ $ $0 -$

10 Short term capital flows stayed loyal to copper! Non-Commercials vs. Nearby Copper Future CFTC Net Non-Commercial Futures and Options (lhs) Comex Copper (Nearby) (rhs)

11 Overview Individual Commodity Forecasts Sector Overweight Slight Overweight Neutral Slight Underweight Underweight Energy Crude Oil WTI Heating Oil Gasoline Brent Industrial Metals Nickel Copper Aluminium Lead Zinc Tin Precious Metals Platinum Palladium Silver Live Cattle Livestock Feeder Cattle Lean Hogs Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat Cotton Softs Sugar Coffee Cocoa Natural Gas Gold 11

12 Contact Tiberius Asset Management AG Baarerstr. 53 CH-6300 Zug Switzerland (Telephone) (Fax)

13 Disclaimer Important legal information The information in this document constitutes neither a sale offer, a request to submit an offer nor investment advice. It is given for information purposes only. No liability is assumed for the accuracy and completeness of the information. Opinions and assessments contained in this document may change at any time and reflect the point of view of Tiberius Group in the current economic environment. Investments should only be made after a thorough reading of the current prospectus and/or the fund regulations, the current simplified prospectus, the articles of association, and the current annual and semiannual reports, as well as after consulting an independent finance and tax specialist. The mentioned documents can be obtained in hard copy or electronically and free of charge by calling / info@tiberiusgroup.com or at Oppenheim Fonds Trust GmbH, Unter Sachsenhausen 4, D Cologne or on the internet at The value of the units and the return they generate can go down as well as go up. They both are affected by market volatility and by fluctuations in exchange rates. Tiberius Asset Management AG does not assume any liability for possible losses. The performance of past values and returns is no indicator of their current or future development. The performance of values and returns does not include the fees and costs which may be charged when buying, selling and/or switching units. The breakdown into sectors, countries and currencies and their respective positions as well as possibly indicated benchmarks are subject to change at any time in line with the investment policy determined in the prospectus. The representations made in this publication may be changed at any time without prior notice. This publication is copyright-protected. All rights appertaining thereto, even in case of only partial use, shall remain reserved, particularly with regard to the following: translation, reprinting, recital, use of images and graphics, broadcasting, duplication via microfiche or other means, and/or storage in data processing equipment. A duplication of this publication or portions thereof shall not be allowed. Any breaches may be subject to the penalties provided for under law. Copyright 2012 Tiberius Asset Management AG. All rights reserved.