Commodity Monthly Monitor Commodity Rebound Gains Momentum

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1 Commodity Monthly Monitor Commodity Rebound Gains Momentum May/June 2 Summary Despite a lacklustre performance in Q1 of this year, it increasingly looks like commodities are at a turning point, with most sectors posting gains last month. There are a number of reasons to be optimistic about the outlook for commodities in 2 and heading into 216. A prolonged period of low prices will likely see a recovery as supply tightens, while demand for many commodities is unlikely to be as weak as many have feared. Policy stimulus around the globe is likely to keep demand conditions favourable for most commodities. One exception in the near term is crude oil. After a strong rally in crude oil prices over the past two months, we expect a modest pull-back. The gains have been premature given that supply of the commodity has not yet materially tightened. Current prices indicate the market has pinned high hopes of a cut in production by OPEC in its upcoming June 5th meeting. With the International Energy Agency claiming that OPEC s fight for market share has only just begun, we believe that the market could face disappointment at this pivotal meeting. El Niño probability raised. The Australian and US meteorological organisations have increased the probability of El Niño lasting into the northern hemisphere summer and autumn. The weather event is now likely to last into the reproductive growth phase of several crops and should its intensity increase, it could damage certain crops such as Australian wheat, cocoa and sugar. Gold shows it mettle. Gold tends to be the first port of call for investors anxious about an otherwise benign world unravelling. Concern about Greek finances and lacklustre growth prolonging monetary stimulus has seen demand for its defensive characteristics rise. Industrial metal inventories in decline. With investors appearing to be underestimating demand, we expect further recovery in prices, as supply optimism begins to fade in the latter stages of 2. Martin Arnold, Director - Global FX & Commodity Strategist Nitesh Shah, Associate Director - Research Analyst Contents Commodities market overview 1 Summary tables 4 CFTC net positioning 5 Inventories 9 Moving average and volumes 13 Futures curves 17 Roll yields 21 Recent publications 27 Energy sector to face near term headwinds. The rally in both oil and natural gas prices could run out of steam in coming weeks, as the market reassesses the abundant supply situation affecting both markets. While we expect demand to strengthen over the northern hemisphere summer, elevated inventory levels could cap near-term gains. Commodity Monthly Matrix 1 Performance 2-1 Mth - 6 Mth - 12 Mth Current Returns Price vs 2 Inventories 3 Positioning Apr All Commodities 5.3% -8.2% -2.5% Price 2 Roll Yield 5 (-1 Mth) days MA (- 3 Mths) (- 1 Mth) Score Score Energy 12.7% -22.2% -38.3% WTI Oil % -9.3% 13.9% 32% -1.6% (1) (3) Industrial Metals 7.6% -4.4% -6.8% Brent Oil 67.3% -7.6% 5.2% 53% -.7% (1) 1 Precious Metals 2.6% 5.8% -7.9% Natural Gas % -12.1% -17.2% -7% -1.6% (1) (2) Agriculture -1.% -13.% -3.4% Gasoline % 3.2% -6.8% -5%.4% 2 (1) MSCI World 1.1% 5.3% 7.% Heating Oil % -7.8% -18.5% 67% -.2% 1 (1) US Aggregate Bond -1.5% 1.1% 3.1% Carbon % 13.1% % Wheat % -9.2% 2.8% -66% -.1% (4) (2) Corn % -4.1% 1.2% -185% -1.7% (4) Soybeans 1 2.8% -3.5% 7.8% 43% 1.9% 1 (2) Sugar.1 -.4% -11.8% - 178% -2.7% (2) (1) Cotton.7 1.% 4.2% -3.2% 47% -.2% 2 (2) Coffee 1.3.5% -2.5% % -.7% (4) (1) Soybean Oil.3 6.7% 3.% -.6% 175% -.4% 2 (3) Cocoa 3,1 7.2% 1.1% - 44% -1.8% 1 (4) CFTC Net Speculative Positioning Aluminum 1,85 4.2% -2.8% -1.9% % -.8% 1 (in ' contracts) Copper 6, %.9%.9% 92%.7% 2 1 Zinc 2,34 6.4% 6.3% -8.2% %.1% 4 1 Nickel 14, % -9.3% 3.5% % -.1% (3) (4) Lead 2,8 1.2% 1.6% -2.7% % -.3% 1 2 Tin, % -18.1% -25.3% % -.1% (1) (2) Gold 1, %.% - -29% - 2 Silver % 1.1% - -34% - 2 Platinum 1,1 -.2% -7.1% - - (4) 2 Palladium % -1.2% (2) Live Cattle % -4.8% - -.9% 4 Lean Hogs.8 29.% -1.7% % (2) (2) Feeder Cattle % -1.2% - -.5% 2 2 The score matrix is designed to highlight significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance. Source: ETF Securities, Bloomberg Sources: Bloomberg, DJ-UBS CI TR Indexes for basket returns, data to Wednesday 13 May 2. Precious Metals Livestock Industrial Metals Energy Agriculture 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Source: CFTC, Bloomberg " - " Information not available. Green = returns positive, inventories falling, positioning rising, roll yield positive. Red = the opposite. Black = neutral. 1 Detailed explanation of the matrix calculations can be found at the end of this report. 2 All prices are futures prices to May 13, 2. Broad sector returns based on Bloomberg Commodity Index family. 3 % change in inventory over the past 3 months except for sugar and coffee which are based on past 6 months as data is updated bi-annually by USDA. 4 CFTC futures and LME COTR net positioning as at May 12, 2, and May 8, 2 respectively, % change from previous month. 5 Calculated as % difference between front month and second month futures prices on report date. 1

2 Platinum Gold Palladium Silver Carbon Heating Oil Gasoline Brent Oil WTI Oil Natural Gas Tin Lead Aluminum Zinc Copper (LME) Copper (COMEX) Nickel Live Cattle Wheat Corn Sugar Coffee Cotton Soybeans Feeder Cattle Soybean Oil Cocoa Lean Hogs Sector Overview Agriculture Cocoa gained 7.2% last month as falling yields in Ghana threaten to drive the market into a supply deficit this year. With meteorological organisations from the US to Australia forecasting that the El Niño weather pattern will last until the northern hemisphere autumn, we expect crop conditions to worsen in West Africa as a lack of rain will exacerbate dryness. The world s top cocoa producer, the Ivory Coast has seen a relatively stable political environment in recent years, but an election this year has the kept the market on edge with memories of the civil war denting sentiment. Any disruption to exports from the Ivory Coast could significantly tighten global supplies. While wheat fell 4.2% in the month, reduced planting in the US and potential El Niño-related crop damage in Australia and India could drive substantial price gains. Excess rain in the US over the past week has already reversed most of the past month s price decline. Agriculture - May Returns* 35% 3% 25% 2% % 1% 5% % -5% Industrial Metals Industrial metal markets have performed solidly, as investors anticipate tighter market conditions in 2 than in recent years, as Chinese demand continues to be robust. Rising oil prices and a weaker US Dollar have added to industrial metal buoyancy. Nickel led the complex higher after the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) believes demand to rise by nearly 4% this year, more than double the growth rate expected for supply. Copper has been the second best performer in the complex over the past month, buoyed by signs of rising demand. Chinese imports in April were 45% higher than a year earlier, against a backdrop of falling stockpiles. For what it s worth, the International Copper Study Group data has shown the copper market to be in a modest surplus for January 2, but recent floods in Chile could cloud the picture. One of Codelco s mines was restarted in late April after a three week shutdown. Source: Bloomberg Industrial Metals - May Returns* 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -4% Zinc has also been a strong performer on the back of falling inventories, which are lower by over 8% over the past three months. Expectations of further stimulus from Chinese policymakers should continue to provide support, despite recent ILZSG data showing around a 4% surplus for January-March 2. Energy Rig counts continue to fall, but with prices at the highest level since December 214, a potential correction could be imminent. Rig counts in the US fell by the least since early 212, while overall US production remains within 1% of its all-time high. Indeed, stockpiles have only fallen for three weeks after building up for 16 consecutive weeks to a record high. Oil prices, which are well above marginal cost, could be in for a sharp correction if investors begin to unwind stretched long positioning. Meanwhile, OPEC s latest report indicated that the cartel continues to produce at least 1.5mb/d above expected demand. Nonetheless, OPEC expects a pickup in global demand of nearly 1.3%, with the largest gains expected to occur in the second half of 2. They believe the increase in demand is sufficient to keep up with abundant supply. Anticipation of cuts at its June meeting could disappoint and prompt a modest pull-back. Source: Bloomberg Energy - May Returns* 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Precious Metals Concern about Greek finances and global equity market volatility renewed interest in gold last month. Although Greece managed to scrape together its 75mn payment to the IMF, the fact it had to do so by tapping into its own IMF reserves account was a cause for concern. Weaker-than-expected German Q1 GDP data, a downgrade of the UK's growth outlook and a string of poor Chinese data point to monetary easing from the world s major central banks continuing for the foreseeable future. Gold responded decisively, gaining 1.6%, with silver riding its coat-tail gaining 5.6%. Natural gas surged following expectations of warmer US weather boosting demand in order to fuel additional demands for power. With storage levels remaining adequate and not far from the longer-term average level, we expect the duration of this rally to be short-lived. Platinum and palladium continued to diverge, with the latter posting a 2.3% gain and the former falling.2%. Slower car sales in Europe (which tend to use more platinum) compared to the US and China (which tend to use more palladium) account for the divergence over the past year. However, European car sales are growing more briskly, posting their highest volume in six years in April and we believe that platinum prices should catch-up accordingly. Source: Bloomberg Precious Metals - May Returns* 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% -1.% Source: Bloomberg *Note: all returns are based on front month futures prices in the month to Wednesday 13 May 2. 2

3 Technical Overview Positioning Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in CFTC Net Positions 1 Speculative positioning in corn turned to net short from net long a month Soybeans ago. Corn supplies in 2/16 in the US are expected a reach an all-time Sugar high. Despite less planting, the prospect of another year of surplus has Soybean Oil weighed on sentiment. Copper speculative long positions have reached the highest level in since August 214. If expectations of Chinese stimulus are not followed up by action, an unwind could see near-term copper price weakness. Net long speculative positioning in WTI hit the highest level since December, last week Net speculative longs in gold and silver fell by 29% and 34% respectively as investors unwound long positions following a 1.6% and 5.6% rally in the metals. Source: Bloomberg Inventories Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in Inventories 2 Soybean inventories are up 7.8% over the past three months as rising Copper supplies and lower use drive up ending stocks. Although copper stockpiles have risen over the past three months, they have been in decline since the end of Q1, due mainly to a drop in SHFE inventory levels. LME zinc stocks are at the lowest level in over five years. US oil inventories remain near record highs, with only the past three weeks showing drawdowns in stock levels. We expect this trend to continue, as we move further into elevated summer demand period, a period we see seasonal drawdown of inventory levels. Copper Heating Oil Gold Silver Wheat Corn Coffee Copper - LME WTI Oil Soybeans Brent Oil Source: Bloomberg -% -5% % 5% 1% Zinc Natural Gas Heating Oil Lead Tin -3% % 1% 2% Curve Dynamics Top 5/Bottom 5 Roll Yields 3 Sugar has moved into contango from backwardation last month, dragging Soybeans returns for long investors by 2.7%. Soybeans on the other hand moved into backwardation from contango providing a positive roll yield of 1.9%. Live Cattle Source: Bloomberg Technicals Top 5/Bottom 5 Price Diff to 2 day moving av. (dma) 4 Coffee is currently trading 2.5% below its 2 dma, reflecting the bearish Carbon sentiment towards the commodity. Copper curve remains broadly flat across the length of the curve. The recent zinc rally, has backwardated the curve modestly, enhancing front end returns by.2%. In contrast, the contango at the front end of the aluminium curve has normalised and is now detracting.8% from returns. Front month contango in Brent narrowed to.7% from 1.9% a month ago, while contango in WTI narrowed to 1.6% from 3.4% last month. Natural gas futures curve contango was stable over the month. A potential bullish signal in coming weeks could present for both lead and zinc if the the 5-dma should cross above the 2-dma. Meanwhile tin looks set to remain under pressure, with both the 5- and 2-dma trending downward. Gasoline is the only commodity in the energy sector with price above its 2dma, going into a period of stronger demand, which could provide additional support. Copper Feeder Cattle Gasoline Natural Gas Corn Cocoa Sugar Lean Hogs Zinc Cotton Gasoline Soybean Oil Nickel Sugar Natural Gas Tin Coffee Source: Bloomberg -6% -4% % 2% 4% Contango Backwardation -25% -% -5% % 5% 1% % % < 2 dma % > 2 dma 1 CFTC futures net positioning as at report date, percent change from previous month. 2 Percent change in inventory based on 3 month change (in %). 3 Roll yields calculated as percent change between front month futures price and next month futures price on May 13, 2. 4 Percent difference between the front month futures price and its 2 day moving average on May 13, 2. 3

4 Summary Tables PRICES 1 Current 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year ROLL YIELDS 2 Unit Exchange 13-May 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month Energy Energy WTI Oil % 14.6% -18.5% -4.5% WTI Oil USD/bbl. NYMEX -1.6% -1.7% -3.4% -1.7% Brent Oil 67.3% 8.6% -14.3% -38.8% Brent Oil USD/bbl. ICE -.7% -1.% -1.9% -1.3% Natural Gas % 4.7% -26.2% -32.7% Natural Gas USD/MMBtu NYMEX -1.6% -1.8% -1.5% -.3% Gasoline % 25.5% 1.9% -3.4% 5 Gasoline USD/gal. NYMEX.4%.2% -.2% -12.5% Heating Oil % 1.7% -.1% -31.9% Heating Oil USD/gal. NYMEX -.2% -.3% -.1% 2.6% Carbon % -.1% 12.5% 44.7% Carbon EUR/MT ICE -.4% -.4% -.3% -.4% Agriculture Agriculture Wheat % -9.8% -13.1% -31.3% Wheat USD/bu. CBOT -.1% -.7%.4%.7% Corn % -8.1% -7.8% -29.3% Corn USD/bu. CBOT -1.7% -.1% -2.% -2.% Soybeans % -1.6% -7.2% -35.1% 1 Soybeans USD/bu. CBOT 1.9%.8% -.4% -.4% Sugar.1 -.4% -12.9% -19.1% -27.2% Sugar USD/lb. NYBOT -2.7% -2.9% 1.2%.3% Cotton.7 1.% 4.9% 1.1% -27.7% Cotton USD/lb. NYBOT -.2%.4% -.5% -1.% Coffee 1.3.5% -17.6% -28.8% -26.8% Coffee USD/lb. NYBOT -.7% -1.5% -1.8% -2.% Soybean Oil.3 6.7% 2.2% 3.2% -19.2% Soybean Oil USD/lb. CBOT -.4% -.5% -.6% -.6% Cocoa 3,1 7.2% 1.1% 7.3% 3.7% Cocoa USD/MT NYBOT -1.8% -1.% -.1% 1.3% Industrial Metals Industrial Metals Aluminum 1,85 4.2% 1.5% -9.7% 6.3% Aluminum USD/MT LME -.8% -.6% 1.3% -.5% Copper % 13.2% -1.5% -6.3% 3 Copper USD/lb. COMEX.7%.2%.% -.1% Copper (LME) 6, % 11.4% -4.7% -6.9% 7 Copper (LME) USD/MT LME.%.%.%.2% Zinc 2,34 6.4% 9.3% 4.2% 13.9% 6 Zinc USD/MT LME.1% -.1% -.2% -.2% Nickel 14, % -4.% -8.7% -33.2% Nickel USD/MT LME -.1% -.1% -.1% -.1% Lead 2,8 1.2% 9.4% -.5% -4.4% Lead USD/MT LME -.3% -.2% -.1% -.4% Tin, % -14.1% -21.1% -33.1% Tin USD/MT LME -.1% -.1% -.2% -.1% Precious Metals Precious Metals Gold 1, % -.7% 4.9% -5.9% Gold USD/t oz. COMEX -.1% -.1%.%.% Silver % -.5% 1.2% -11.8% 9 Silver USD/t oz. COMEX -.1% -.1% -.3% -.2% Platinum 1,1 -.2% -4.7% -4.% -21.% Platinum USD/t oz. NYMEX -.1% -.1%.% -.1% Palladium % -.6% 2.4% -3.4% Palladium USD/t oz. NYMEX -.2% -.1% -.1% -.2% Livestock Livestock Live Cattle % -5.% -1.4% 1.9% 2 Live Cattle USD/lb. CME.9%.9% 6.6% 4.4% Lean Hogs.8 29.% 31.1% -1.8% -27.6% Lean Hogs USD/lb. CME -4.% -4.4% -12.9% -6.% Feeder Cattle % 7.3% -8.6% 18.4% 4 Feeder Cattle USD/lb. CME.5% -1.1% 1.%.3% Sources: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Sources: Bloomberg, ETF Securities CFTC NET 5 Yr 5 Yr Current 1 Month 6 Month 1 Year INVENTORY LEVELS 4 Current POSITIONING 3 Average Average 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Energy Energy WTI Oil 389,287 28, , ,184 43,564 5 Oil - US 484,839 28% % 14% 28% Brent Oil** 174,465 83, ,844-1, ,29 Oil - OECD Europe** 314 % - 5% 3% Natural Gas -244, , ,7-28,17-7,77 Natural Gas - DOE 1,786-4% 16% -17% -51% Gasoline 61,87 61,361 64,45 6,661 69,43 9 Gasoline - DOE 226,71 7% -7% 11% Heating Oil -1,724 6,424-32,976-28,7-16,654 Heating Oil - DOE 1,637-62% 1% -19% -4% Agriculture Industrial Metals Wheat -88,73-14,245-53,587-2,3 43,243 Aluminum 4,94,363-21% -11% Corn -59,511 24,743 69, ,98 336,584 Aluminum - LME 3,816,575-21% -4% -13% Soybeans 2, ,169-6,297 6, ,278 Aluminium - SHFE 277,788-18% 13% 47% 25% Sugar 3,24 84,456-38,568 3, ,347 Copper 544,38-3% -9% 16% 97% Cotton 64,459 38,988 43,976 18,851 63,595 Copper - LME 337,85-6% 1% 14% 111% Coffee -3,242 1, ,878 41,899 Copper - SHFE 183,34 26% -24% 18% 18% Soybean Oil 62,799 9,589 22,85 54,126 19,792 Copper - COMEX 22,884-61% -9% 24% -19% Cocoa 39,671 31,193 27,636 41,439 52,471 Nickel - LME 441,42 128% 2% 3% 13% Industrial Metals 5 Zinc 64,53-43% -8% Copper ,4-4,911-25,695-9,918 Zinc - LME 446,25-47% -12% -25% -35% Aluminum 174, ,3 174, ,33 - Zinc - SHFE 194,55-31% 3% 89% 79% Nickel 5,595 2,116 5,595 22,588 - Lead 28,455-36% -22% -21% -27% Zinc 81,635 86,984 81,635 16,97 - Lead - LME 162,525-38% -26% -24% -25% Lead 24,63 2,867 24,63 16,983 - Lead - SHFE 45,93-3% -5% -6% -32% Tin 2,221 2,71 2,221 1,776 - Tin - LME 8,59-37% -12% -25% -% Precious Metals Agriculture Gold 79,81 6,333 11,947 54, ,77 Wheat - USDA 23,32 5.1% 3.1% 2.8% 5.4% Silver 26,121 24,963 39,692 4,366 9,63 Corn - USDA 191,94 34% 1.8% 1.2%.2% Platinum 26,174 28,743 29,86 22,594 47,69 Soybeans - USDA 96,22 57% 7.4% 7.8% 7% Palladium 19,128 16,373 16,217 22,214 24,499 Sugar - USDA 41,94 17% - - Livestock Cotton - USDA 16,29 46% -3.5% -3.2% -1.% Live Cattle 99,247 86,469 88, ,39 146,738 Coffee - USDA 36,495 14% % Lean Hogs 19,361 5,446 5,42 72, 87,27 Soybean Oil - USDA 3,53-7% 2.% 14% Feeder Cattle 6,852 7,881 6,564 7,38 14,917 Sources: Bloomberg, ETF Securities 1Performance of front month futures from 13 (1 Year), 13 (6 Month), 13 (3 Month) and 13 (1 Month) to 13. 2Roll return non-annualised from front month futures into second " month on 13 (3 Month), 13 (1 Month), 6 (1 Week), Net positions in number of contracts. 4 Current inventories relative to 1, 3, 6 months ago. Under the column "5 yr average" is the current inventory level relative to 5 year average inventory. For energy, 5 yr average is the average of the same month as report month over the past 5 years. **Brent 5 Yr average of net positions from January 211 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then and inventory data (OECD) reported with 2 month lag with current = Dec All Industrial metals positioning data (excluding copper) is sourced from LME COTR data in Bloomberg from 28th July 14 (first available date). 4

5 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 CFTC Speculative Net Long Futures Positions Agriculture Cocoa Coffee , 8 6 3,5 4 3, 2 2,5-2 2, -4 1, Price (RHS, USD/MT) Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Corn Cotton Price (RHS, USD/bu.) Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Soybean Oil Soybeans Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Price (RHS, USD/bu.) Sugar Wheat Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Price (RHS, USD/bu.) Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average 5 All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.

6 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan- May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Energy Brent Oil Average* WTI Oil Price (RHS, USD/bbl.) Price (RHS, USD/bbl.) Natural Gas Gasoline Price (RHS, USD/MMBtu) Price (RHS, USD/gal.) Heating Oil Price (RHS, USD/gal.) Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average 6 All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. *Brent average of net positions from January 211 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then

7 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Jan- Jan- Industrial Metals Copper (COMEX) Aluminum Series average - 2, 1,95 1,9 1,85 1,8 1,75 1,7 1,65 1,6 Price (RHS, USD/lb.) LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT) Nickel Zinc Series average, , 11 14,5 1 14, 9 13, , 6 12,5 5 12, 4 - Series average 2,45 2,4 2,35 2,3 2,25 2,2 2, 2,1 2,5 2, 1,95 LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT) LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT) Lead Tin Series average 2, ,1 3. 2, 2.5 1,9 2. 1,8 1, , Series average 2, 19, 18, 17, 16,, 14, 13, 12, LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT) LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT) Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average. LME non-commercial net positions averaged from 28 th July 14 and respective graphs represent daily data. 7 All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.

8 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Precious Metals Gold Silver ,1 6 1,9 5 1, ,5 2 1,3 1 1, Price (RHS, USD/t oz.) Price (RHS, USD/t oz.) Platinum Palladium , 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Price (RHS, USD/t oz.) Price (RHS, USD/t oz.) Livestock Lean Hogs Live Cattle Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Feeder Cattle Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average 8 All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.

9 8/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ 8/ 81/ 82/ 83/ 84/ 85/ 86/ 87/ 88/ 89/ 9/91 91/92 92/ 93/ 94/ 95/ 96/ 97/ 98/ 99/ / 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 1/11 14/ 8/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ 8/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ 8/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ 8 81/ / / 92 93/ 94 95/ 96 97/ / / 8 9 1/11 12/ 13/ 14/ 8/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ 8/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ Inventories Agriculture Corn - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 198 to % chg in projections vs. previous =.2% Corn - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln tons, from 198 to chg in projections vs. previous = 3.5 Coffee - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 198 to % chg in projections vs. previous = 3.9% Coffee - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln bags (6 kg), from 198 to chg in projections vs. previous = 9.6 Cotton - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 198 to % chg in projections vs. previous = - 6.7% Cotton - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln 48 lb Bales, from 198 to chg in projections vs. previous = Soybeans - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 198 to % chg in projections vs. previous = 2.% Soybeans - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln tons, from 198 to chg in projections vs. previous = 6.7 Note: stock to use data is annual with monthly update of 212/213 estimates 9

10 /81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ 8/ 81/ 82/ 83/ 84/ 85/ 86/ 87/ 88/ 89/ 9/ 91/ 92/ 93/ 94/ 95/ 96/ 97/ 98/ 99/ / 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 1/11 14/ 94/ 95/ 96/ 97/ 98/ 99/ / 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 1/11 14/ 8/ 81/ 82/ 83/ 84/ 85/ 86/ 87/ 88/ 89/ 9/ 91/ 92/ 93/ 94/ 95/ 96/ 97/ 98/ 99/ / 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 1/11 14/ 8/ 81/82 82/ 83/ 84/ 85/ 86/ 87/ 88/ 89/ 9/91 91/92 92/ 93/ 94/ 95/ 96/97 97/ 98/ 99/ / 1/2 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/1 1/11 14/ 8/ 81/ 82/ 83/ 84/ 85/ 86/ 87/ 88/ 89/ 9/ 91/ 92/ 93/ 94/ 95/ 96/ 97/ 98/ 99/ / 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 1/11 14/ Soybean Oil - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 198 to % chg in projections vs. previous = - 2.2% Soybean Oil - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln Metric Tons, from 198 to chg in projections vs. previous = Sugar - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1998 to % chg in projections vs. previous = 6% Sugar - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln Metric Tons, from 198 to 2 5 chg in projections vs. previous = Wheat - Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 198 to % chg in projections vs. previous = 3.% Wheat - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln tons, from 198 to chg in projections vs. previous = 6.1 Cocoa - Inventory Annual data in ' metric tons, from 1981 to 2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Source: International Cocoa Organisation, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Note: stock to use data is annual with monthly update of 212/213 estimates 1

11 8/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ 8/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ Jun-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan- Jun-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan- Industrial Metals Aluminum Inventory Daily data, from 13 to 13 5,6 Copper Inventory Daily data, from 13 to ,1 5 4, ,1 2 3,6 1 SHFE Inventory (in ' tonnes) LME Inventory (in ' tonnes) SHFE Inventory (in ' tonnes) LME Inventory (in ' tonnes) COMEX Inventory (in ' tonnes) Nickel Inventory Daily data in ' MT, from 13 to Zinc Inventory Daily data, from 13 to 13 1,1 43 1, Source: LME, Bloomberg, ETF Securities SHFE Inventory (in ' tonnes) LME Inventory (in ' tonnes) Lead Inventory Daily data, from 13 to Tin Inventory Daily data in ' MT, from 13 to SHFE Inventory (in ' tonnes) Livestock Lean Hogs Inventory Annual data in mln Heads, from 198 to LME Inventory (in ' tonnes) Source: LME, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Live Cattle Inventory Annual data in mln Heads, from 198 to 2 1, 1,1 1,5 1,

12 Energy US Oil Inventory Weekly data in mln barrels, from May 1 to Yr Average +/-1 stdev Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities OECD Europe Oil Industry Inventory Monthly data in mln barrels, from Feb 5 to Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5Yr Average +/-1 stdev Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Heating Oil Inventory Weekly data in mln barrels, from May 1 to Yr Average +/-1 stdev Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Natural Gas Inventory Weekly data in billion cubic feet, from May 1 to 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Yr Average +/-1 stdev Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Gasoline Inventory Weekly data in mln barrels, from May 1 to Yr Average +/-1 stdev Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Note: "Oil - OECD Inventory" represents OECD industry stocks and is reported with a 2 month lag. 12

13 Commodities Front Month Futures and Trading Volumes Agriculture Cocoa Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 13 to 13 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 $3,6 $3,4 $3,2 $3, $2,8 $2,6 $2,4 $2,2 $2, Coffee Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 13 to 13 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 $2.4 $2.2 $2. $1.8 $1.6 $1.4 $1.2 $1. Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Corn Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/bu., from 13 to 13 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, $5.5 $5. $4.5 $4. $3.5 $3. Cotton Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 13 to 13 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 $.95 $.9 $.85 $.8 $.75 $.7 $.65 $.6 $.55 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Soybean Oil Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 13 to 13 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 $.44 $.42 $.4 $.38 $.36 $.34 $.32 $.3 $.28 Soybeans Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/bu., from 13 to 13 3, 25, 2,, 1, 5, $16 $ $14 $13 $12 $11 $1 $9 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Sugar Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 13 to 13 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, $.19 $.18 $.17 $.16 $. $.14 $.13 $.12 $.11 $.1 Wheat Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/bu., from 13 to 13 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, $7.5 $7. $6.5 $6. $5.5 $5. $4.5 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 13

14 Energy Brent Oil Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/bbl., from 13 to 13 $18, $16, $14, $12, $1, $8, $6, $4, $2, $ $125 $1 $ $95 $85 $75 $65 $55 $45 WTI Oil Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/bbl., from 13 to 13 $14, $12, $1, $8, $6, $4, $2, $ $12 $11 $1 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Natural Gas Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MMBtu, from 13 to 13 $35, $5. Gasoline Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/gal., from 13 to 13 $3, $3.7 $3, $25, $2, $, $1, $5, $ $4.5 $4. $3.5 $3. $2.5 $2. $25, $2, $, $1, $5, $ $3.2 $2.7 $2.2 $1.7 $1.2 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Heating Oil Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/gal., from 13 to 13 $3, $3.6 $25, $2, $, $1, $5, $3.1 $2.6 $2.1 $1.6 $ $1.1 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Carbon Carbon Front Month Futures Price Daily data in EUR/MT, from 13 to Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 14

15 Industrial Metals Aluminum Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 13 to 13 $35, $3, $25, $2, $, $1, $5, $ $2,2 $2,1 $2, $1,9 $1,8 $1,7 $1,6 Lead Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 13 to 13 $3,5 $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 $ $2,4 $2,3 $2,2 $2,1 $2, $1,9 $1,8 $1,7 $1,6 $1,5 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Copper (COMEX) Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 13 to 13 $1, $9, $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ $3.4 $3.3 $3.2 $3.1 $3. $2.9 $2.8 $2.7 $2.6 $2.5 $2.4 Copper (LME) Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 13 to 13 $35, $3, $25, $2, $, $1, $5, $ $7,4 $7,2 $7, $6,8 $6,6 $6,4 $6,2 $6, $5,8 $5,6 $5,4 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Volume ($mn) 2 dma (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) Prices (RHS) Nickel Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 13 to 13 $1, $9, $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ $23, $21, $19, $17, $, $13, $11, Tin Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 13 to 13 $1,4 $1,2 $1, $8 $6 $4 $2 $ $26, $24, $22, $2, $18, $16, $14, $12, Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Zinc Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 13 to 13 $1, $9, $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ $2,5 $2,4 $2,3 $2,2 $2,1 $2, $1,9 $1,8 $1,7 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.

16 Precious Metals Gold Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/t oz., from 13 to 13 $5, $45, $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $, $1, $5, $ $1,4 $1,35 $1,3 $1,25 $1,2 $1, $1,1 Silver Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/t oz., from 13 to 13 $14, $12, $1, $8, $6, $4, $2, $ $22 $21 $2 $19 $18 $17 $16 $ $14 $13 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Platinum Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/t oz., from 13 to 13 $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 $ $1,55 $1,5 $1,45 $1,4 $1,35 $1,3 $1,25 $1,2 $1, $1,1 $1,5 Palladium Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/t oz., from 13 to 13 $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 $ $95 $9 $85 $8 $75 $7 $65 $6 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Livestock Lean Hogs Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 13 to 13 $4,5 $4, $3,5 $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 $ $1.4 $1.3 $1.2 $1.1 $1. $.9 $.8 $.7 $.6 $.5 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Live Cattle Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 13 to 13 $9, $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ $1.75 $1.65 $1.55 $1.45 $1.35 $1.25 $1. Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Feeder Cattle Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 13 to 13 $3,5 $2.5 $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 $2.3 $2.1 $1.9 $1.7 $1.5 $ $1.3 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 16

17 M8 1 M M M M M M Futures Curves Agriculture Cocoa Futures USD/MT $3,1 $3,5 $3, $2,95 $2,9 $2,85 $2,8 $2,75 $2,7 $2,65 $2,6 M Coffee Futures USD/lb. $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 $1.65 $1.55 $1.45 $1.35 $ Corn Futures USD/bu. $4.5 $4.3 $4.1 $3.9 $3.7 $3.5 Cotton Futures USD/lb. $.68 $.67 $.66 $.65 $.64 $.63 $.62 $.61 $.6 $ Soybean Oil Futures USD/lb. $.35 $.34 $.34 $.33 $.33 $.32 $.32 $.31 $.31 $.3 Soybeans Futures USD/bu. $1 $1 $1 $1 $9 $9 $ Sugar Futures USD/lb. $.17 $.165 $.16 $.5 $. $.145 $.14 $.135 $.13 $.125 $.12 Wheat Futures USD/bu. $6.1 $5.9 $5.7 $5.5 $5.3 $5.1 $4.9 $ Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 17

18 M Energy Brent Oil Futures USD/bbl. $75 $73 $71 $69 $67 $65 $63 $61 $59 $57 $55 WTI Oil Futures USD/bbl. $68 $66 $64 $62 $6 $58 $56 $54 $52 $ Gasoline Futures USD/gal. $2.1 $2. $1.9 $1.8 $1.7 $1.6 $1.5 $1.4 $1.3 $1.2 Natural Gas Futures USD/MMBtu $3.9 $3.7 $3.5 $3.3 $3.1 $2.9 $2.7 $ Heating Oil Futures USD/gal. $2.2 $2. $2.1 $2.5 $2. $1.95 $1.9 $1.85 $1.8 $1.75 $ Carbon Carbon Futures EUR/MT Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 18

19 M M Industrial Metals Aluminum Futures USD/MT $2,1 $2,5 $2, $1,95 $1,9 $1,85 $1,8 $1,75 $1,7 Lead Futures USD/MT $2, $2,1 $2,5 $2, $1,95 $1,9 $1,85 $1,8 $1,75 $1, Copper (COMEX) Futures USD/lb. $3. $2.9 $2.8 $2.7 $2.6 $2.5 $2.4 Copper (LME) Futures USD/MT $6,6 $6,4 $6,2 $6, $5,8 $5,6 $5, Nickel Futures USD/MT $, $14,5 $14, $13,5 $13, $12,5 $12, Tin Futures USD/MT $19, $18,5 $18, $17,5 $17, $16,5 $16, $,5 $, Zinc Futures USD/MT $2,4 $2,35 $2,3 $2,25 $2,2 $2, $2,1 $2,5 $2, $1,95 $1, Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 19

20 M8 1 M M Precious Metals Gold Futures USD/t oz. $1,35 $1,3 $1,25 $1,2 $1, $1,1 Silver Futures USD/t oz. $19 $18 $18 $17 $17 $16 $16 $ Platinum Futures USD/t oz. $1,24 $1,22 $1,2 $1,18 $1,16 $1,14 $1,12 $1, Livestock Lean Hogs Futures USD/lb. $.9 $.85 $.8 $.75 $.7 $.65 $ Palladium Futures USD/t oz. $8 $79 $78 $77 $76 $75 $ Live Cattle Futures USD/lb. $1.65 $1.6 $1.55 $1.5 $1.45 $1.4 $1.35 $1.3 M Feeder Cattle Futures USD/lb. $2.25 $2.2 $2. $2.1 $2.5 $2. $1.95 $1.9 $1.85 $1.8 M Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 2

21 Roll Yields Agriculture Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex.4%.2%.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% -1.2% -1.4% Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Cocoa Futures 1% 1% % ' ' ' ' 'Dec 'Dec 'Jul 'Jul 'Sep 'Sep Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) Bloomberg Coffee Subindex.% -.5% -1.% -1.5% -2.% -2.5% -3.% -3.5% Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Coffee Futures % -3% -3% -4% -4% -5% ' ' 'Jul 'Jul ' ' 'Sep 'Sep 'Dec 'Dec Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) ' ' 'Jul 17 'Jul 17 2 Bloomberg Corn Subindex 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -3% -4% -5% Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Corn Futures % -3% -3% -4% -4% -5% -5% ' 'Jul ' 'Jul ' 'Sep ' 'Sep 'Dec 'Dec Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) ' ' 'Jul 17 'Jul 17 2 Bloomberg Cotton Subindex 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -4% Feb Apr Jun Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Cotton Futures 1% % % % % % 'Jul ' 'Oct 'Jul 'Jul ' 'Dec 'Oct 'Mar 16 'Dec 'Jul Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) 'Jul ' 'Oct 17 'Jul 17 2 Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates. Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 21

22 Agriculture (continued) Bloomberg Soybean Oil Subindex.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% -1.2% -1.4% -1.6% -1.8% Feb Apr Jun Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Soybean Oil Futures.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% -.7% -.8% -.9% ' ' 'Jul 'Jul ' ' 'Aug 'Aug 'Sep 'Sep 'Dec 'Dec Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) ' ' 'Sep 16 'Sep 16 2 Bloomberg Soybeans Subindex 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -4% Feb Apr Jun Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Soybeans Futures 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% -.5% -1.% ' 'Jul ' 'Jul ' ' 'Aug 'Aug 'Sep 'Sep 'Jan 16 'Jan 16 Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) ' ' 'Nov 16 'Nov 16 2 Bloomberg Sugar Subindex 4% 2% % -4% -6% -8% -12% -14% -16% Feb Apr Jun Sep 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Sugar Futures 2% % -4% -6% -8% -12% 'Jul 'Oct ' 'Jul 'Jul ' 'Mar 16 'Oct 16 'Mar 16 'Oct 16 'Jul 16 Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) Bloomberg Wheat Subindex.5%.% -.5% -1.% -1.5% -2.% -2.5% -3.% -3.5% -4.% -4.5% Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Wheat Futures 1.%.% -1.% -2.% -3.% -4.% -5.% -6.% ' ' 'Jul 'Jul ' ' 'Sep 'Sep 'Dec 'Dec Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) ' ' 'Jul 17 'Jul 17 2 Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates. Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 22

23 Livestock Bloomberg Lean Hogs Subindex % 1% 5% % -5% -% -25% Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Lean Hogs Futures 25% 2% % 1% 5% % -5% -% -25% ' 'Jun ' ' ' 'Jul ' 'Jun 'Aug 'Dec Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) 'Jul 'Oct Bloomberg Live Cattle Subindex 8% 6% 4% 2% % -4% -6% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Energy Bloomberg Brent Crude Subindex 2.% 1.%.% -1.% -2.% -3.% -4.% -5.% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average % -.5% -1.% -1.5% -2.% -2.5% -3.% -3.5% Live Cattle Futures 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 'Jun ' 'Aug 'Jun Brent Oil Futures 'Jun 'Oct ' 'Aug 'Dec 'Oct 'Apr 16 'Feb 16 Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) 'Jun ' 'Jun ' 'Sep 'Aug 'Jun ' 16 'Apr 16 'Jul 'Jun 'Aug 'Jul 'Nov 'Oct 16 'Apr 16 'Apr 17 'Mar 17 Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) 4 6 'Apr 17 'Mar 17 'Mar 18 'Feb 18 Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex 3% 2% 1% % -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average WTI Oil Futures.% -1.% -2.% -3.% -4.% -5.% -6.% 2 'Jun 'Jun 'Jun 'Sep 'Aug 'Jun 'Jul ' 'Apr 'Jul 'Aug 'Nov 'Oct Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) 4 6 'Apr 16 'Apr 17 'Mar 'Apr 'Mar 17 'Mar 18 'Feb Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates. Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 23

24 Energy (continued) Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex 1% 5% % -5% Natural Gas Futures % -4% -% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average % 2 'Jun 'Jun 'Jun 'Sep 'Aug 'Jun 'Jul ' 'Apr 'Jul 'Aug 'Nov 'Oct Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) 4 6 'Apr 16 'Apr 17 'Mar 'Apr 'Mar 17 'Mar 18 'Feb Bloomberg Unleaded Gasoline Subindex 1% 5% % -5% -% -25% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Gasoline Futures 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 2 'Jun 'Jun 'Jun 'Sep 'Aug 'Jun 'Jul ' 'Apr 'Jul 'Aug 'Nov 'Oct Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) 4 6 'Apr 16 'Apr 17 'Mar 'Apr 'Mar 17 'Mar 18 'Feb Bloomberg Heating Oil Subindex 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % -3% -3% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Industrial Metals Bloomberg Aluminum Subindex.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% -1.2% -1.4% -1.6% -1.8% -2.% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Heating Oil Futures.% -2.% -4.% 2 'Jun 'Jun 'Jun 'Sep 'Aug 'Jun 'Jul ' 'Apr 'Jul 'Aug 'Nov 'Oct Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) Aluminum Futures 1.5% 1.%.5%.% -.5% -1.% -1.5% -2.% 2 Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) 4 6 'Apr 16 'Apr 17 'Mar 'Apr 'Mar 17 'Mar 18 'Feb ' ' 'Aug 'Jul ' 'Apr 16 'Mar 16 'Mar 17 'Feb 17 'Jun ' 'Jul 'Apr 'Jun 'Oct 'Sep 'Mar 16 'Mar 17 'Feb 17 'Feb 18 'Jan Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates. Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 24

25 Industrial Metals (continued) Bloomberg Copper Subindex.5%.4%.3%.2%.1%.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Copper Futures.8%.7%.6%.5%.4%.3%.2%.1%.% -.1% 'Jul 'Jul 'Sep 'Sep 'Dec 'Dec 'Jul 17 2 'Jul 17 Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) 2 4 'Jul 17 'Jul 17 'Sep 19 'Sep 19 Bloomberg Lead Subindex 1.%.8%.6%.4%.2%.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Lead Futures.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) 4 6 ' ' 'Aug 'Jul ' 'Apr 16 'Mar 16 'Mar 17 'Feb 17 'Jun ' 'Jul 'Apr 'Jun 'Oct 'Sep 'Mar 16 'Mar 17 'Feb 17 'Feb 18 'Jan Bloomberg Nickel Subindex.4%.3%.2%.1%.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Nickel Futures.% -.5% -.1% -.% -.2% -.25% -.3% -.35% ' ' ' ' 'Aug 'Jul ' ' 'Apr 16 'Mar 16 'Jun ' 'Jul 'Jun 'Oct 'Sep 'Apr 16 'Mar 16 'Mar 17 'Feb 17 Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) 4 6 'Mar 17 'Feb 17 'Feb 18 'Jan 18 Bloomberg Tin Subindex.6%.5%.4%.3%.2%.1%.% -.1% -.2% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Tin Futures.% -.1% -.1% -.2% -.2% -.3% -.3% ' ' 'Jun ' ' ' 'Jul 'Jun 'Aug 'Jul 'Oct 'Sep Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) ' ' 'Apr 16 'Mar 16 2 Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates. Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 25

26 Industrial Metals (continued) Bloomberg Zinc Subindex.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% -1.2% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Precious Metals Bloomberg Gold Subindex.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% -.7% -.8% -.9% Jan Mar May Jul Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average %.% -.5% -.1% -.% -.2% Zinc Futures.2%.1%.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% Gold Futures 'Jun 'Aug Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) 4 6 ' ' 'Aug 'Jul ' 'Apr 16 'Mar 16 'Mar 17 'Feb 17 'Jun ' 'Jul 'Apr 'Jun 'Oct 'Sep 'Mar 16 'Mar 17 'Feb 17 'Feb 18 'Jan ' 'Jun 'Jun 'Oct ' 'Aug 'Dec 'Oct 'Apr 16 'Feb 16 Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) 'Jun ' 'Jun 17 'Feb 17 2 Bloomberg Silver Subindex.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% -.7% Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Silver Futures.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% ' 'Jul ' 'Jul ' 'Sep ' 'Sep 'Dec 'Mar 16 'Dec 'Mar 16 Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) ' 'Mar 17 2 #N/A Bloomberg Platinum Subindex.% -.1% -.1% -.2% -.2% -.3% -.3% -.4% -.4% Mar Jun Sep Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Platinum Futures.% -.5% -.1% -.% -.2% -.25% -.3% 'Jul 'Oct ' 'Jul 'Jul 'Jan 16 Wednesday 13-1 month (13 ) ' 'Oct Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates. Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 26

27 Commodity Monthly Matrix Explained Score based on unweighted sum of four fundamental/technical measures detailed below with each measure awarded a possible score of -1,, or 1 depending on whether variable is viewed as fundamentally negative, neutral or positive. Score ranging from -4 to +4. For commodities where data is not available or not relevant, scores are calculated on remaining variables and adjusted to the -4 to +4 scale. The score matrix is designed to highlight significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance. The four fundamental/technical measures are as follow: - price vs. 2 days moving average: 1 when price is above 2dma and return is positive, -1 when price is below 2dma and return is negative, otherwise - % change in net positioning over the past month: 1 when % change is positive, -1 when % change is negative, when no change - % change in inventory level over the past 3 months: 1 when % is negative, -1 when % is positive, when no change - roll yield between the front and second month futures contracts: 1 when in backwardation, -1 when in contango, when no change CALENDAR ETF Securities - Recent Research Notes 5- Research Team Monthly Update - Oil - Winners and Losers 5- Simona Gambarini Oil: Can Recent Gains be Sustained? 4- Research Team Monthly Update - The World of Negative Rates 18- Martin Arnold Patience Could Derail US Dollar Rally 2- Simona Gambarini Platinum and Palladium - Fundamentally Undervalued 23- Nitesh Shah Energy Wars: Battle of Technologies 25- Research Team Macro Outlook: Much Ado About Zero 9- Research Team In-Depth Research Note: Outlook Q2- - Tightening Supply Brightens Commodity Outlook in Face of Rising US Dollar 7- Nitesh Shah China Macro Monitor: Renminbi: The World's Next Reserve Currency? The research notes are for qualified investors only. Key Reports Current Next release 12-1-Jun- USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates 12-9-Jun- EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook 12-1-Jun- OPEC OPEC Oil Market Report Jun- IEA IEA Oil Market Report DISCLAIMER Important Information The analyses in the above tables are purely for information purposes. They do not reflect the performance of any ETF Securities' products. The futures and roll returns are not necessarily investable. General This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited ( ETFS UK ) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the FCA ). This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors. The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit. 72