Open Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
|
|
- Ilene Byrd
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 : Daily 9 December 2010 Walter de Wet, CFA* Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com Focus: The oil term structure gets a reality check Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com James Zhang* James.Zhang@standardbank.com Focus: The oil term structure gets a reality check As pointed out in our daily notes since last week, we ve been expecting the strength in the WTI term structure to be short-lived. Yesterday, the forward curved moved back into a contango, even steeper than levels seen on 2 Dec 10 Despite the latest rise in US real interest rates, the fact that the level of real rates remains low, still makes gold investment attractive. As a result we believe real interest rates will have to rise much higher before any long term negative impact will be seen on gold investment. The weekly DOE report showed crude inventories were drawn by 3.8mbbl, gasoline inventory build 3.8mbbl and middle distillate inventory was up by 2.2mbbl. After a soft start, the base metals complex rallied strongly during Wednesday afternoon, relentlessly grinding higher throughout the afternoon, then moving sharply higher as shorts covered back their positions towards the close. The metals have generally consolidated this morning, though a stronger dollar is dragging on metals slightly heading into the afternoon. Commodity price data (8 December 2010) Base metals LME 3-month Open Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle Change in cash settle Cash 3m Aluminium 2,320 2,374 2,381 2, % 2, Copper 8,849 9,015 9,070 8, % 8, Lead 2,370 2,408 2,431 2, % 2, Nickel 23,800 24,000 24,350 24, % 23, Tin 25,500 25,650 25,850 25, % 25, Zinc 2,284 2,312 2,294 2, % 2, Open Close High Low day/day Change (%) ICE Brent % NYMEX WTI % ICE Gasoil % API2 Q1' % EUA Dec % AM Fix PM Fix High bid Low offer Closing bid Change (d/d) EFPs Gold 1, , , , , /1.0 Silver /5.0 Platinum 1, , , , , /2.0 Palladium /1.0 Sources: Standard Bank; LME; BBG Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
2 Daily 9 December 2010 Focus: The oil term structure gets a reality check The term structure for crude oil strengthened significantly towards the end of last week. It led to the 1-to-12 months spread hitting its highest level in more than two years at -$0.30c/bbl. The 6-to-12 month spread was in backwardation at $0.50c/bbl on the 6 Dec 10. In comparison, the two spreads was settled at -$1.89/bbl and - $0.63/bbl respectively on 2 Dec 10. However, as pointed out in our daily notes since last week, we ve been expecting the strength in WTI term structure to be short-lived. Yesterday, the forward curved moved back into a contango, even steeper than levels seen on 2 Dec 10 (refer to Figure 1). We maintain the view that the current inventories level does not warrant such flat term structure during the last few days. The latest DOE inventory report gave the market a reality check. Despite a draw of 3.8mbbl last week, US crude inventories were still 32.3mbbl above 5-year average and 19.8mbbl above 5-year high set in (refer to Figure 2). More importantly, the recent draw in crude was caused largely by a reduction in crude oil imports rather than material increase in demand. Nevertheless, we do expect US crude inventories will be drawn down at a faster pace in coming months than the pace observed in This should happen on the back of a continuous discounted WTI price and a seasonal increase in demand. However, we look at the deviation from the seasonal pattern, rather than absolute level of moves in demand or inventories for market directions. With the recent rally in both the flat price and the term structure, we see more upside potential in spreads towards the back-end of the curve, around Cal13 and Cal14, rather than the front end of the curve. Figure 1. WTI forward curve Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Sources: DOE; Standard Bank Figure 2. US DOE crude commercial inventories 390, , , ,000 $/bbl WTI: 2/12/2010 WTI: 6/12/2010 WTI: 8/12/2010 kbbl 270,000 Jan Feb Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Dec 5-yr Range yr Average By James Zhang Sources: DOE; Standard Bank Base metals After a soft start, the base metals complex rallied strongly during Wednesday afternoon, relentlessly grinding higher throughout the afternoon, then moving sharply higher as shorts covered back their positions towards the close. The metals have generally consolidated this morning, though a stronger dollar is dragging on metals slightly heading into the afternoon. Copper remains well supported in spite of the stronger dollar, holding above $9,000 after setting another record high this morning. Copper recovered very strongly yesterday afternoon, boosted by short covering. The impact of weak longs and weak shorts will likely continue to se volatile trading ahead of the weekend and the release of the latest Chinese economic data. Meanwhile, although the excitement generated by the expected launch various base metal ETF/ETP s may have added a bit of extra spice to proceedings, the effect on market perception, particularly in terms of the various copper ETF s, has in our view tended to show up in the spreads rather than necessarily in outright prices. The proposed JP Morgan and Blackrock copper ETF s are initially expected to have a combined holding in the region of 183 kt of metal. Whether this is related to the current dominant position holder of copper warrants or not, the market perception is that the warrants are nevertheless tightly held. As such, the spreads are already behaving as if on-warrant copper stocks are closer to 150 kt rather than the current level of 325 kt. Elsewhere, zinc tracked copper higher yesterday, trading back above $2,300. Prices have since fallen back, with the metal unable to sustain yesterday s move, though turnover has been very good, with the this morning s pullback triggering good twoway interest. Lead prices have also fallen back after yesterday s gains, with a large 1,775 mt increase in on-warrant stocks impacting on sentiment. By Leon Westgate 2
3 Daily 9 December 2010 Precious metal prices are steady. Gold is finding good support around the $1,380 level. The liquidation of platinum and palladium have slowed and silver is steady above $ Since last week US treasury yields has risen sharply. The move in the 10-year UST yield, from 2.90% last week to 3.25% today, was rather violent for such a deep and liquid market. Since break-even inflation in the US (as derived from the bond market) remains largely unchanged, implied real interest rates in the US has also moved higher in recent days. The 10-year implied real interest rate in the US is now at 1%, up from 0.60% at the end of November. A rise in real interest rates is bearish for gold and seems to be capping upside at the moment. However, despite the latest rise in US real interest rates, the fact that the level of real rates remains low, still makes gold investment attractive. As a result we believe real interest rates will have to rise much higher before any long term negative impact will be seen on gold investment. The PGM market is still lacking upwards momentum and this may well remain the case until China s inflation release is out of the way on Monday. The market remains nervous about possible more monetary tightening in China which may slow consumption expenditure. Gold support is at $1,367 and $1,352. Resistance is at $1,400 and $1,420. Silver support is at $28. A breach below this level may see silver test $27.55 and $ Resistance is at $ By Walter de Wet Oil followed the dollar yesterday despite a very brief sell-off after the weekly DOE report yesterday. Front-month WTI and Brent settled 41c/bbl and 62c/bbl lower respectively. At the same time, the crude oil term structure continued to weaken. First to twelfth-month WTI spread lost 45c/bbl to settle at -$2.18/bbl, a big drop from -30c/bbl on Monday (see Focus). RBOB gasoline cracks weakened by 14c/bbl as a result of a large gasoline inventory build. The weekly DOE report showed crude inventories were drawn by 3.8mbbl, gasoline inventory build 3.8mbbl and middle distillate inventory was up by 2.2mbbl. These came reasonably close to our forecast reported yesterday (crude/gasoline/distillate - 3.5/+2.8/+1.5 vs market consensus of -1.5/0.8/-0.9). The swing of inventories from crude to products was caused by a sharp rise in refinery runs of 4.9%. On a 4-week running average basis, gasoline demand stayed flat in the US, while distillate demand was sharply down by 183kbpd. Although we do not believe the sharp drop in distillate demand reported in recent weeks has set a downward trend, we will be watching very closely on distillate demand. Looking ahead, we expect the term structure to continue to correct. Flat prices look vulnerable after the recent strong rally, while Chinese inflation and the euro-debt crisis remains in the background. By James Zhang 3
4 Daily 9 December 2010 Base metals Daily LME stock movement (mt) Metal Today Yesterday In Out One day change YTD change (mt) Contract turnover Aluminium 4,281,425 4,287,225 1,700 7,500-5, , , ,211 Copper 350, , ,050-1, ,075 26, ,064 Lead 203, , ,950 8, ,453 Nickel 131, , ,418 5, ,726 Tin 15,665 15, ,100 1, ,250 Zinc 632, , ,125 31, ,228 Shanghai 3-month forward prices COMEX active month future prices ZAR metal prices (8 December 2010) Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc ZAR/USD fix Cash 15,953 61,712 16, , ,730 15, month 16,713 63,467 16, , ,581 16, futures pricing Price Change Price Change Price Change Price Change Price Change 1-month forward 2-month forward 3-month forward 6-month forward 1-year forward Sing Gasoil ($/bbbl) Gasoil 0.1% Rdam ($/mt) NWE CIF jet ($/mt) Singapore Kero ($/bbl) % Rdam barges ($/mt) % Fuel Oil FOB ($/mt) Sing FO 380 Cargo ($/mt) Sing FO180 Cargo ($/mt) Thermal coal Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Cal 11 Cal 12 API2 (CIF ARA) API4 (FOB RBCT) Forwards (%) 1-month 2-month 3-month 6-month 12-month Gold Silver USD Libor Technical Indicators 30-day RSI 10-day MA 20-day MA 100-day MA 200-day MA Support Resistance Gold , , , , , , Silver Platinum , , , , , , Palladium Active Month Future COMEX GLD COMEX SLV NYMEX PAL NYMEX PLAT DGCX GLD TOCOM GLD CBOT GLD Feb'11 Mar 11 Jan'11 Jan'11 Dec'10 Oct'11 Feb 11 Settlement 1, , , , , Open Interest 603, ,675 23,157 36,578 1, ,942 2,479 Change in Open Interest , Date: 8 December 2010 Sources: Standard Bank; LME; Bloomberg Cancelled warrants (mt) Cancelled warrants (%) Metal Open Last 1d Change Open Close Change Change (%) Aluminium 16,400 16, Ali Mar' Copper 66,980 67,200 1,410 Cu Mar' % Zinc 18,330 18,
5 Daily 9 December 2010 Disclaimer Certification The analyst(s) who prepared this research report (denoted by an asterisk*) hereby certifies(y) that: (i) all of the views and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's(s') personal views about the subject investment(s) and issuer(s) and (ii) no part of the analyst s(s ) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the analyst(s) in this research report. Conflict of Interest It is the policy of The Standard Bank Group Limited and its worldwide affiliates and subsidiaries (together the Standard Bank Group ) that research analysts may not be involved in activities in a way that suggests that he or she is representing the interests of any member of the Standard Bank Group or its clients if this is reasonably likely to appear to be inconsistent with providing independent investment research. In addition research analysts reporting lines are structured so as to avoid any conflict of interests. For example, research analysts cannot be subject to the supervision or control of anyone in the Standard Bank Group s investment banking or sales and trading departments. However, such sales and trading departments may trade, as principal, on the basis of the research analyst s published research. Therefore, the proprietary interests of those sales and trading departments may conflict with your interests. Please note that one or more of the analysts that prepared this report sit on a sales and trading desk of the Standard Bank Group. Legal Entities: To U. S. Residents Standard New York Securities, Inc. is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as a broker-dealer and is also a member of the FINRA and SIPC. Standard Americas, Inc is registered as a commodity trading advisor and a commodity pool operator with the CFTC and is also a member of the NFA. Both are affiliates of Standard Bank Plc and Standard Bank of South Africa. Standard New York Securities, Inc is responsible for the dissemination of this research report in the United States. Any recipient of this research in the United States wishing to effect a transaction in any security mentioned herein should do so by contacting Standard New York Securities, Inc. To South African Residents The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited (Reg.No.1962/000738/06) is regulated by the South African Reserve Bank and is an Authorised Financial Services Provider. To U.K. Residents Standard Bank Plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (register number ) and is an affiliate of Standard Bank of South Africa. The information contained herein does not apply to, and should not be relied upon by, retail customers. General This research report is based on information from sources that Standard Bank Group believes to be reliable. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, no research analyst or member of the Standard Bank Group gives any representation, warranty or undertaking and accepts no responsibility or liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information set out in this document (except with respect to any disclosures relative to members of the Standard Bank Group and the research analyst s involvement with any issuer referred to above). All views, opinions and estimates contained in this document may be changed after publication at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The investments and strategies discussed here may not be suitable for all investors or any particular class of investors; if you have any doubts you should consult your investment advisor. The investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value of investments. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Members of Standard Bank Group may act as placement agent, advisor or lender, make a market in, or may have been a manager or a co-manager of, the most recent public offering in respect of any investments or issuers referenced in this report. Members of the Standard Bank Group and/or their respective directors and employees may own the investments of any of the issuers discussed herein and may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis. This report is intended solely for clients and prospective clients of members of the Standard Bank Group and is not intended for, and may not be relied on by, retail customers or persons to whom this report may not be provided by law. This report is for information purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior consent of a member of the Standard Bank Group. Unauthorised use or disclosure of this document is strictly prohibited. By accepting this document, you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. Copyright 2010 Standard Bank Group. All rights reserved. 5
Open Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
FICC Research Commodities: Daily 17 September 2010 Focus: Copper makes the next leg higher Walter de Wet, CFA* Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Focus: Copper
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
FICC Research Commodities: Daily 27 April 2010 Focus: Tin prices, stocks and spreads Walter de Wet, CFA* Walter.De.Wet@standardbank.com Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Focus: Tin - prices,
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
FICC Research Commodities: Daily 21 April 2010 Walter de Wet, CFA* Walter.De.Wet@standardbank.com Focus: Nickel spreads tightening Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Focus: The recent surge
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 17 September 2009 Focus: OPEC non-compliance offsets rising demand While the decline in crude oil demand in the US and other OECD countries has stopped, oil product demand in July and
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 11 November 2009 Focus: Auto sales are improving but remain well below the levels seen in 2007. While we remain bullish on PGM prices, auto sales are constituent with our view that upward
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 29 October 2009 Focus: Another discrepancy between API & DOE This discrepancy could fuel uncertainty about the actual trend in US crude oil demand. While there is little doubt that inventories,
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Daily 3 November 2010 Walter de Wet, CFA* Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com Focus: Oil inventory takes a back seat Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Focus: Last night, API published very bullish
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
FICC Research Commodities: Daily 16 July 2010 Focus: Copper premiums continue to climb Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Focus: Copper premiums have continued to climb, particularly in Asia
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
FICC Research Commodities: Daily 15 July 2010 Focus: Zinc open interest Walter de Wet, CFA* Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Focus: Zinc prices have been remarkably
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
FICC Research Commodities: Daily 23 June 2010 Focus: Lower platinum price induces strong China demand Walter de Wet, CFA* Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Focus:
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 10 September 2009 Focus: Oil looking to equities for direction,... again. Front-month WTI crude oil prices have failed to break up the $70/bbl $75/bbl trading range, with the market caught
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily 24 November 2010 Walter de Wet, CFA* Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com Focus: Focus: Nickel Chinese imports bucking the trend Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com James Zhang* James.Zhang@standardbank.com
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 28 August 2009 Focus: Gold volatility set to rise As we head into September, indications are that volatility in the gold market could rise. This has been the pattern for 1-month ATM implied
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily 18 November 2011 Oil fell, together with the equity market, yesterday, driven by ongoing concerns over the Eurozone crisis, defying positive US economic data. WTI and Brent declined by $3.77/bbl
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 27 November 2009 Focus: Buy gold dip This morning, gold touched $1,191 in Asia. However, in just a few hours, gold sold off aggressively, alongside other commodities. Liquidity is presently
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 6 Aug 2009 Focus: Oil forward curve signals tighter balance Both ICE Brent crude and WTI forward curves have become flatter since 21 July. 2-year contango on the WTI and Brent curves
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 1 December 2009 Focus: Auto sales in recovery Given that auto sales are a leading economic indicator, we view recovering vehicle sales as bullish for platinum, palladium and aluminium
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 13 October 2009 Focus: Chinese auto sales powering ahead Chinese vehicle sales rose a staggering 83.6% y-o-y in September, to 1.015 million units, comfortably exceeding US auto sales
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%)
: Daily Focus: Tin prices gearing up for another run higher 24 January 2011 Focus: Tin prices gearing up for another run higher - Tin is once again setting new records, with the metal closing last week
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 16 November 2009 Focus: PGM break through significant resistance While we prefer palladium and rhodium to platinum, we still see more upside for platinum. Should the ZAR continue to fluctuate
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
FICC Research Commodities: Daily 7 June 2010 Walter de Wet, CFA* Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com Focus: Long liquidation giving way to new shorts Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Sources: Standard
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 3 November 2009 Focus: Aluminium forward curves - rock steady so far While metals such as copper have had a rollercoaster ride over the past few months Aluminium has been relatively calm.
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily 23 November 2010 Walter de Wet, CFA* Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com Focus: Gold physical demand support gold on dips Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com James Zhang* James.Zhang@standardbank.com
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle. Open Close High Low day/day Change (%) ATM 1-m vol ATM 6-m vol ATM 1-y vol
Commodities Daily 8 July 2009 Focus: Platinum racing towards our target Platinum is fast approaching our target of $1,100, and could fall even further. Palladium has been holding up well relative to platinum.
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 4 December 2009 Focus: Aluminium forward curve - parallel shift In spite of the burst of activity seen in aluminium over the course of this week, with 3-month prices rallying as much
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
FICC Research Commodities: Daily 12 July 2010 Focus: Chinese copper imports still looking bullish Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Focus: The latest Chinese import figures for unwrought copper
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: China PGM imports on the weak side 21 February 2012 Focus: We believe that the Chinese customs data is consistent with our view that weak industrial demand will make it difficult for platinum
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle. Open Close High Low day/day Change (%) ATM 1-m vol ATM 6-m vol ATM 1-y vol
Commodities Daily 24 July 2009 Focus: Chinese Aluminium Imports - Chinese imports of primary aluminium have surged over the past 6 months, with the country becoming a significant net importer of the metal
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%)
: Daily Focus: New yuan loans supportive of commodities 14 April 2011 Focus: Today s release of new yuan loans data for March 2011 showed an additional RMB679.4bn of credit extension. This was well above
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 9 October 2009 Focus: SHFE Copper forward curves - The return of the Chinese after their extended holiday has seen the SHFE Copper curve start playing catch up with the LME. There is
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: ETFs prefer platinum 21 November 2011 Focus: With current market positioning already weak, the past week has seen relatively lacklustre interest in PGM. However, ETF buyers have been quite
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%)
: Daily Focus: Gasoil crack rally could end 22 March 2011 Focus: The gasoil crack rallied strongly last week in the wake of Japan s disaster. Per our Weekly Potential impact of Japan s disaster on the
More informationSilver is struggling for momentum. Open Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 25 June 2009 Focus: Oil finds resistance Compared to macroeconomic fundamentals, frontmonth WTI crude oil prices appear overvalued. Investor optimism, which saw the front-month contract
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Structural shifts in the US oil market 7 February 2012 Focus: The US consumes over one-fifth of global petroleum production, more than twice as much as that of the second-largest consumer,
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%)
: Daily Focus: SHFE LME arbitrage narrower but still negative 15 April 2011 Focus: The weakness in the LME copper prices over the last week has seen the differential between prices on the SHFE and LME
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: January performance not underpinned by real demand 1 February 2012 Focus: Much has been made about the performance of commodities (and other asset classes) during the first month of 2012.
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily 29 November 2010 Focus: QE fully priced in, but euro gold still a buy on dips Walter de Wet, CFA* Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com Leon Westgate* Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Focus: QE fully priced
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Platinum moving into the zone 12 April 2012 Focus: Platinum moving into the zone For a while, we ve been viewing a platinum price between $1,600 and $1,550 as a level where downside is becoming
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Market positioning favours gold 15 November 2011 Focus: According to the latest CFTC data, released only yesterday due to Friday s holiday in the US, we are seeing growing investor interest
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%)
: Daily Focus: WTI/Brent spread might narrow 3 March 2011 Focus: WTI/Brent spread might narrow While WTI continues to trade at a significant discount to Brent, the term structure of WTI has shifted significantly
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Market positioning against PGM 16 April 2012 Focus: The uptake in short positions in NYMEX platinum is alarming (this is the largest increase since August 2011), and the surest signal we
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: China CPI moving in right direction for metal demand 9 November 2011 Focus: China s inflation print should support metal prices on the downside, but the inflation print on its own is not
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
Commodities Daily 1 September 2009 Focus: Copper Forward Curve The rally in copper prices over the past month appears to have been driven predominantly by the addition of new long positions, with the front
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Aluminium tom-next metronome continues to tick 14 June 2011 Focus: Aluminium tom-next metronome continues to tick Since the aluminium nearby spreads first started to show significant tightness,
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Real economic data likely to keep disappointing 10 October 2012 Focus: As we pointed our in Daily yesterday, we reiterate that, despite rising speculative length in the paper market, upward
More informationCommodities Daily Commodities Research
Commodities Daily 22 April 2009 Walter de Wet +44 (20) 7815 2759 Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com Leon Westgate +44 (20) 7815 4090 Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Focus US money still not multiplied: The US
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Platinum s Eskom rally should fade 11 January 2012 Focus: Platinum s Eskom rally should fade Although we believe that platinum at $1,400 is $100 to low from a cost-of-production perspective,
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%)
: Daily Focus: Oil should recover from the sell off 10 May 2011 Focus: We view the recent oil sell-off as a correction after the very sharp upward move since February; the long-term bullish trend remains
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Physical oil market squeezed by high crude prices 28 February 2012 Focus: The recent strong rally in crude oil price has been largely driven by fears of major supply disruptions from the
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily No silver lining this New Year 3 January 2012 Focus: As we move into 2012, it appears as if the futures market and ETFs are wary of gold and silver. While there are tentative signs that gold might
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Value emerging out of bearish market positioning 14 May 2012 Focus: Despite current investor positioning, we believe that, from a fundamental perspective, getting bearish on gold at current
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Nickel physical premiums still trending lower 7 February 22 Focus: Although the fundamentals often get overlooked, in the case of nickel we expect the current weak physical outlook to continue
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Double whammy for European Crude 24 January 2012 Focus: The European crude oil market has been under substantial pressure since the beginning of this year, even though benchmark crude oil
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Fed s stance should continue to support gold 25 January 2012 Focus: We don t expect today s Fed announcement to rock the boat. The Fed will most likely reassure markets of continued low
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Oil volatility declines despite talks of tail risks 31 January 2012 Focus: The oil market started off the New Year with heightened concerns over so called tail risks. It was understandable,
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Q1:12 performance not underpinned by real demand 30 March 2012 Focus: While commodities had a stellar start to the year in January, the upward momentum in prices did falter as we approached
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Chinese copper imports still strong 1 February 1 Focus: While Chinese imports of unwrought copper and products fell m/m in January, in nominal terms at least, the daily pace of imports actually
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Geopolitical risk to keep oil heated 28 November 2011 Focus: Despite the global economy facing strong headwinds, oil demand is holding up. Global supply remains tight, as inventories continue
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: China IP growth interpret with caution 9 November Focus: We calculate the demand elasticity of crude oil and copper with respect to changes in Chinese industrial production growth. While
More informationClose High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Some encouragement from market positioning 23 April 2012 Focus: Net speculative length for COMEX gold remains relatively weak, which signals a continued lack of confidence. While investors
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%)
: Daily Focus: Impact of Japan earthquake on the energy market 14 March 2011 Focus: Japan s devastating earthquake is likely to have two consequences: Firstly, the mix of Japan s electricity generation
More informationCFTC data: silver testing downside, but more patience needed. Daily. Global Commodities. By Walter de Wet. 05 May 2014
Daily CFTC data: silver testing downside, but more patience needed Last week, silver looked vulnerable, testing strong technical support between $18.50 and $19/oz. However, this area has been providing
More informationCopper spreads too easy
Daily Copper spreads too easy The main focus in copper has been on the near-dated spreads, with Tom/Next recently trading out to $20 backwardation and with the Cash-3 month spread trading out to a $64.50
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%)
: Daily Focus: Copper deviating from the dollar 01 November 2013 Since the middle of October, what had been a strong negative correlation between copper and the dollar index has deteriorated significantly.
More informationChina copper imports fall, but likely less than feared. Daily. Global Commodities. 8 August 2014
China copper imports fall, but likely less than feared Chinese imports of unwrought copper and products fell 2.9% m/m in July, from 350kt to 340 kt (Figure 1) the third month running of decline for unwrought
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Gold physical demand continues to ease 4 September 2013 Gold physical demand continues to ease Our Standard Bank Gold Physical Flow Index (GPFI), which tracks largely Asian physical buying and
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Focus: Nickel risk of potential disruptions, but upside capped 2 November Focus: Nickel risk of potential supply disruptions, but upside capped: We wouldn t be surprised if supply continued to
More informationLooking for price support from China PT imports. Daily. Global Commodities. 16 May 2014
Looking for price support from China PT imports While the strikes in South Africa continue, we await China s platinum and palladium import data for April, due for release in the next few days. April is
More information08-12 Oct.2018 COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT OCTOBER 2018
COMMODITY REPORT 08-12 Oct.2018 Trade House 426 Alok Nagar, Kanadia Main Road Near Bangali Square Indore-452001 (M.P.) India Mobile :+91-9039261444 E-mail: info@tradenivesh.in COMMODITIES PREVIOUS WEEKS
More informationTransGraph Research Consulting Technology
Research Consulting Technology Agriculture Metals Energy Dairy Currency Economy Brands Medium term outlook on Lead July 217 2 Market Recap LME Lead remained weak last month but recovered towards the end
More informationGuide to Implied Pricing for Base Metals
Guide to Implied Pricing for Base Metals April 2019 SETTING THE GLOBAL STANDARD : introduction What is implied pricing and what metals are covered? combines liquid outright orders with carry (or calendar
More informationRisk Factor Indices Selection and Rebalance Dates
db Index Quant 5 February 2018 dbiq Index Guide Risk Factor Indices Selection and s The report is designed to provide the details of future selection and rebalance dates of various risk factor Indices
More informationCOMMODITIES CORNER. Gold steadies above 5-week lows as market rally pauses. Synopsis
COMMODITIES CORNER March 06, 2019 Synopsis Gold (Play the Range) US$1,300 US$1,290 US$1,280 US$1,270 Silver (Play the Range) US$15.50 US$15.30 US$15.00 US$14.80 WTI (Play the Range) US$57.30 US$56.30 US$55.30
More informationResearch Global Oil price to bottom when non-opec output rise halts déjà vu #2
Investment Research General Market Conditions 18 December 2014 Oil price to bottom when non-opec output rise halts déjà vu #2 We expect the current slide in oil prices to continue until we see producers
More informationCommodities: CFTC Weekly Report Rates, FX and Commodities Strategy 12 January 2018 TD Securities Toronto
Rates, FX and Commodities Strategy CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the Week Ending January 09, 08 Gold specs continued to increase their net length, as traders aggressively added to their longs while
More informationDescription of the. RBC Commodity Excess Return Index and RBC Commodity Total Return Index
Description of the RBC Commodity Excess Return Index and RBC Commodity Total Return Index This document contains information about the RBC Commodity Excess Return Index and RBC Commodity Total Return Index,
More informationCOMMODITIES CORNER. Oil prices rebound slightly after heavy declines over trade dispute. Synopsis Gold (Play the Range) 2nd Resistance
COMMODITIES CORNER Synopsis Gold (Play the Range) US$1,235 US$1,225 US$1,210 US$1,205 Silver (Play the Range) US$15.70 US$15.50 US$15.20 US$14.90 WTI (Play the Range) US$69.40 US$68.10 US$66.40 US$65.50
More informationRisk Factor Indices Selection and Rebalance Dates
db Index Quant 3 October 2017 dbiq Index Guide Risk Factor Indices Selection and s The report is designed to provide the details of future selection and rebalance dates of various risk factor Indices handled
More informationDAILY METALS & ENERGY REPORT December 31, 2012
FINANCIAL MARKET OVERVIEW Asset Last Chg % Chg Commodity Gold / US Dollar FX Spot 1654.9-8.39-0.50% Silver / US Dollar FX Spot 30-0.16-0.53% Crude oil $ Spot 90.66-0.25-0.27% COMEX Copper $ 358.95-1.15-0.32%
More informationOpen High Close Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily Gold physical demand response merely muted 14 November 2013 Gold dropped below $1,300 last week, but gold physical demand has been even more lacklustre than it has been since April this year. However,
More informationCommitments of Traders: Commodities
Commitments of Traders: Commodities Leveraged funds positioning covering the week ending March 6, 218 Ole S. Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy 6-Mar-18 Change Change Change Change Pct 1 yr high 1 yr low
More informationCommodities Forecast Update Weakness awaits rest of 2014
Investment Research 15 October 2014 2014 Commodities Forecast Update Weakness awaits rest of 2014 Key themes Oil A markedly stronger dollar and concerns about the outlook have weighed on demand for commodities
More informationGuide to Implied Pricing for Base Metals
Guide to Implied Pricing for Base Metals July 2018 SETTING THE GLOBAL STANDARD : introduction What is the LME doing? Implied pricing combines liquid outright orders with carry (or calendar spread) orders
More informationPremium Commodity Weekly Journal
Published On 12 Jan 2019 Research Analyst Report 14 JAN 2019 to GOLD 31917 18 JAN 2019 SILVER 39336 Premium Commodity Weekly Journal Strictly for Client Circulation Email: research@24cfin.com & contactus@24cfin.com
More informationMetals & Energy Nov. 05, 2015
Market synopsis Precious Metals Base metals High Low Close %Chg OI High Low Close %Chg OI MCX MCX (Rs/kg) Gold(Dec) (Rs/1 gm) 26,73 25,732 25,771 (.6) 7,55 Alum.(Oct) 98.8 96.2 97.7 (.4) 8,848 Silver(Dec)
More information17 th Dec Gold Silver Copper Zinc Lead Aluminium Nickel Crude Oil Natural Gas. Bullion. Base Metal. Energy. Jeera. Agro.
17 th Dec 2018 Bullion Base Metal Energy Agro Gold Silver Copper Zinc Lead Aluminium Nickel Crude Oil Natural Gas Jeera Chana MCX Gold price has moved lower on Friday session. On a weekly chart, price
More informationNivesh Commodity. Comex Division FROM RESEARCH DESK. Daily Change & Technical levels. Bullions (Spot) Last close % change
Nivesh Commodity 11 th JAN, 2018 FROM RESEARCH DESK Daily Change & Technical levels Base Metal Inventory Scrip Inventory Change Alumni 1,090,525 2325 Copper 203,750 75 Lead 143,450 600 Nickel 365,868 1188
More informationCOMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT
COMMODITY REPORT 5 FEB-9 Feb 2018 Monday - Friday Trade House 426 Alok Nagar, Kanadia Main Road Near Bangali Square Indore-452001 (M.P.) India Mobile :+91-9039261444 E-mail: info@tradenivesh.in COMMODITIES
More informationIntroduction to Fuel Hedging. 23 rd April 2010
Introduction to Fuel Hedging 23 rd April 2010 1 NAB Commodity Risk Management National Australia Bank & YB/CB is at the forefront of helping our global banking clients manage the impact of commodity prices
More informationThe Copper Journal Weekly Report Index Of Charts
Weekly Report Index Of Charts 1 Price & Inventory Report 2 Base Metals Barometer 3 Year To Date % Price Change 4 LME Nonferrous Metals YTD % Change 5 Precious Metals YTD % Price Change 6 Energy YTD % Price
More information14-18 Jan COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT Jan.2019
COMMODITY REPORT 14-18 Jan. 2019 Trade House 426 Alok Nagar, Kanadia Main Road Near Bangali Square Indore-452001 (M.P.) India Mobile :+91-9039261444 E-mail: info@tradenivesh.in COMMODITIES PREVIOUS WEEKS
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. April RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group
Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of March 29, 2018, unless otherwise noted
More informationGold physical demand: YTD run rate
Spot gold ($/oz) SGE prem ($/oz) Index Daily Gold physical demand: YTD run rate Government bond yields in the US are still important for gold, and the recent decline in the US 10-year government bond yields
More informationRMB EXCHANGE TRADED NOTES
RMB EXCHANGE TRADED NOTES RMB OIL ETN December 2010 An Authorised Financial Services Provider WHAT IS AN ETN? RMB ETNs are debt securities issued by FirstRand Bank Limited Listed on the JSE and trade like
More informationOpen Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle
: Daily 03 December 2013 Tapering talk continues to dominate sentiment on the run up to Friday s Nonfarm Payroll data, with intervening economic data, such as yesterday s better than expected US ISM figure
More information24 June Microsec Commerze Ltd. Archan Singha: June 24, 2013
24 June 2013 Microsec Commerze Ltd Gold and Silver Gold fell below the $1,300-an-ounce mark while July silver contract fell to a 33-month low today. The falling spree was fueled by Federal Reserve chief
More informationCOMMODITY RESEARCH Kunal Kame COMMODITY DAILY 30 TH JAN 2018
COMMODITY RESEARCH Kunal Kame COMMODITY DAILY 30 TH JAN 2018 In Yesterday s Session Bullion fell in yesterday s session where Gold lost its shine by 1% and silver slipped by almost 2%. Price fell from
More informationTechnical Analysis: Market Insight
Technical Analysis: Market Insight October 1987 vs. October 2017 Today (Oct. 19, 2017) marks the 30 th anniversary of Black Monday a global market crash during which the S&P 500 dropped 20% in one day.
More informationCOMMODITIES CORNER. Gold set for biggest weekly loss since August as dollar weighs. Synopsis Gold (Play the Range) 2nd Resistance
COMMODITIES CORNER Synopsis Gold (Play the Range) US$1,230 US$1,225 US$1,215 US$1,210 Silver (Play the Range) US$14.70 US$14.60 US$14.30 US$14.20 WTI (Play the Range) US$61.80 US$60.80 US$58.30 US$57.00
More informationMARKET NEWS. Thursday, Nov 16, Coal News
Thursday, Nov 16, 2017 MARKET NEWS Coal News The API2 Cal18 market came under immediate pressure on the open shifting 40cents lower to $84.00/t continuing its downward strength throughout the remainder
More information