Commodities. Sandra Ebner,, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager Deka Investment GmbH. May, 2010

Transcription

1 Commodities Sandra Ebner,, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager Deka Investment GmbH May, 2010

2 Long-term structural changes cause higher trendgrowth in commodity demand, but 7 5 Emerging markets are growing faster than industrialised countries GDP growth, by region* Strong growth in demand in coming years The economic catch-up process in China and India encompasses one third of the world s population EU-18 Latin America Asia ex Japan USA Central & Eastern Europe Catch-up process marked by: industrialisation urbanisation rising incomes The current recession has not altered the long-term scenario: the demand for commodities will rise 2 * Change vs. previous year, in % Three-year average Sources: various national Bureaus of Statistics, DekaBank

3 higher trend-growth does not prevent short-term cyclicality A meltdown of global trade finance caused a crash in global trade (Baltic Dry Index) 0 Jan. 85 Jan. 90 Jan. 95 Jan. 00 Jan. 05 Sources: Bloomberg, Deka Investment 3

4 Order stop had devastating but no lasting impact on commodity prices USA China China Purchasing Manager Index ISM ISM New Orders China Purchasing Manager Index New Orders Sources: China Federation of Logistics, Deka Investment, Institute of Supply Management 4

5 Energy Chinese oil demand continues to show strength USA: Oil demand China: Oil demand million barrels per day million barrels per day P P Sources: Deka Investment, International Energy Agency 5

6 Energy Lower oil prices have worsened supply outlook going forward 2 Non-OPEC supply usually surprises to the downside million barrels per day 1,6 1,2 0,8 0,4 0-0,4 Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Sources: Deka Investment, International Energy Agency 6

7 Metals China dominates the market 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Urbanization in China and India is rising 0% F 2015 F 2020 F 2025 F China+Taiwan Korea Japan US Brazil India Sources: Deka Investment, United Nations 7

8 Metals Chinese copper demand soars Chinese stimulus package impacts metals demand '000 metric tons Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Sources: Deka Investment, China General Administration of Customs 8

9 Gold Investment demand drives prices Strong increase in physical gold held by Exchange Traded Funds metric tons USD per fine troy ounce Implied net investment Bar Hoarding Bullion Coin Sales Gold price (rhs) Sources: Deka Investment, World Gold Council 9

10 Gold Jewellery demand suffers from higher prices metric tons Jewellery Industrial & Dental Net Retail Investment ETFs & Similar Implied Other investment Sources: Deka Investment, World Gold Council 10

11 Agriculture a substitute for energy Increase in bio fuel production has strong implications for grains Changing value chain for corn Then and NOW ethanol plant 11

12 Agriculture Structural changes in the long-run China s lack of arable land will lead to higher agricultural imports arable land in hectares/per capita Brazil China Germany India Russia US average 12 Sources: Deka Investment, World Bank As per: 2006

13 Agriculture Foreign Direct Investment used to gain long-term access The scramble for acreage around the world has already begun Sources: Deka Investment, Unctad 13

14 Commodities as an asset-class Co-movement of asset classes has increased and remains relatively high 1,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00-0,25-0,50-0,75-1,00 Jan 78 Jan 80 Jan 82 Jan 84 Jan 86 Jan 88 Jan 90 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 S&P 500 & ML Corp Bond GSCI & S&P 500 EUR & GSCI GSCI & ML Corp Bond Sources: Bloomberg, Deka Investment As per: 03/

15 The Fund Deka-Commodities Benchmark index: DJ-UBS CI 12% Weighted individual commodities Crude 14.34% Gasoline 3.53% 19% 6% Agriculture Livestock Precious Metals 30% 33% Energy Industrial Metals Natural Gas 11.55% Silver 3.29% Gold 9.12% Zinc 3.02% Soybeans 7.91% Soybean Oil 3.00% Copper 7.64% Sugar 2.89% Corn 7.09% Coffee 2.56% Aluminum 5.75% Nickel 2.37% Wheat 4.70% Lean Hogs 2.10% Heating Oil 3.58% Cotton 2.00% Live Cattle 3.55% Return: 5.3% p.a./risk: 16.6% p.a.* 15 Sources: Deka Investment, Dow Jones Indexes Weighting as at January 2010 (weighting varies over the year, reflecting changes in market prices) * Data series: Please take note of the information on the last page of this presentation.

16 Hinweise zu verwendeten Indizes "Dow Jones," and Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index are trademarks of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by Investment GmbH. DekaInvestment's Deka-Commodities based on the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, and Dow Jones makes no representation regarding the advisability of trading in such product(s). 16